Bottom-line: 페이스북에 투자하는 주주들은 메타버스에 비싼 값을 지불하고 있음. 올해 주가 하락으로 6,770억 달러의 시가총액이 사라졌으며, 동시에 세계 20위 기업에서 밀려났음. 그럼에도 불구 이 부진의 늪이 끝날 기미는 보이지 않음.
Meta Platforms Inc. shareholders are paying dearly for its spending on the metaverse: The Facebook parent’s market value has collapsed by a whopping $677 billion this year, forcing it out from the ranks of the world’s 20 largest companies. The punishment shows no signs of easing anytime soon. Meta’s stock is down as much as 25% after it spooked investors with ballooning costs to fund its version of virtual reality and a decline in revenue.
Meta Platforms Inc. shareholders are paying dearly for its spending on the metaverse: The Facebook parent’s market value has collapsed by a whopping $677 billion this year, forcing it out from the ranks of the world’s 20 largest companies. The punishment shows no signs of easing anytime soon. Meta’s stock is down as much as 25% after it spooked investors with ballooning costs to fund its version of virtual reality and a decline in revenue.
Docent: 재화를 구입하기 위해 지불할 수 있는 최대한의 금액을 '지불용의가격'이라 함. 최근 기업들의 실적 발표를 살펴보면 강한 소비력으로 인해 소비자들의 지불용의가격이 보다 더 높은 곳에 있음을 알 수 있음. 즉, 기업들은 추가적인 가격인상을 통해 수익을 향상시키고 주가를 지탱할 수 있을 것임. 비자는 이미 소비자 신용에 이상 징후가 없다고 했으며, 이번에 마스터카드 또한 예상치를 상회하는 실적을 발표함. 이미 소비 중심의 업체들도 줄줄이 가격을 올리고 있는데, UPS, 킴벌리-클라크, 맥도날드, 컴캐스트, 그리고 장 후 실적을 발표하는 애플이 있음.
The latest company earnings show consumers are still pretty healthy, allowing companies to hike prices. That’s bolstering profit and can help support equities, even as inflation stings and there are a few signs of cracks, particularly in auto lending. Stocks are mostly shrugging off big tech misses, as my colleague Heather Burke points out, though it’s hard to completely ignore Meta’s stunning fall, on the heels of its epic crash earlier this year. Earlier GDP data held some encouraging signs for stocks as well. Beats from payments giants highlighted strong spending. This morning’s came from Mastercard, with quarterly purchase volume jumping an estimate-topping 15%; Visa’s results showed no sign of impact from an economic slowdown, and American Express reported all-time high revenue. The streak of consumer-facing companies raising prices includes McDonald’s and Comcast, following firms like UPS and Kimberly-Clark, and notably Apple, which reports after the bell.
The latest company earnings show consumers are still pretty healthy, allowing companies to hike prices. That’s bolstering profit and can help support equities, even as inflation stings and there are a few signs of cracks, particularly in auto lending. Stocks are mostly shrugging off big tech misses, as my colleague Heather Burke points out, though it’s hard to completely ignore Meta’s stunning fall, on the heels of its epic crash earlier this year. Earlier GDP data held some encouraging signs for stocks as well. Beats from payments giants highlighted strong spending. This morning’s came from Mastercard, with quarterly purchase volume jumping an estimate-topping 15%; Visa’s results showed no sign of impact from an economic slowdown, and American Express reported all-time high revenue. The streak of consumer-facing companies raising prices includes McDonald’s and Comcast, following firms like UPS and Kimberly-Clark, and notably Apple, which reports after the bell.
Bottom-line: 옵션을 이용해 손실 한도를 제한하고, 마찬가지 최고 수준의 이익도 일정 수준에서 제한되는 소위 완충 상장지수펀드가 부상하고 있음. 상품화 된 기간이 길지 않은 이 전략의 상장지수펀드는 전년 대비 3배에 이르는 80억 달러의 자금 유입이 발생하며 1조 달러가 지워진 상장지수펀드 시장에서 빛을 발하고 있음. 중앙은행이 인플레이션 통제를 위해 정책금리 인상을 지속하며 작년까지와 상반되게 손실보호를 위해 상방의 수익 기회를 기꺼이 희생하고 있음.
As this year’s bruising stock selloff wiped about $1 trillion from the US exchange-traded fund industry, the same turmoil was powering one young breed of fund to its most-explosive growth yet. Assets in so-called buffer ETFs -- which cushion losses in return for a cap on gains -- have surged 80% to $16 billion so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They’ve drawn total net inflows of $8 billion in the span, almost triple the amount in all of last year. Buffer funds use options to protect against a certain amount of losses over a time period, but will also simultaneously limit gains. For example, the Innovator US Equity Power Buffer ETF - October (ticker POCT) seeks to buffer against the first 15% of losses in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) in each annual period starting in October. The cap on gains varies each year, but for the current one that began earlier this month, they’ll be limited at around 20%. Stocks have been rattled by the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of rate hikes to tamp down inflation. Investors’ rush toward buffer funds shows a pivot from previous years in which they were less willing to give up potential gains for greater protection. “It always used to be, ‘you know what, I don’t want to miss out on the upside,’” said Athanasios Psarofagis, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Now I feel like the sentiment has completely flopped: ‘I’m willing to give up some of the upside because the downside right now is so much more important to me.’”
As this year’s bruising stock selloff wiped about $1 trillion from the US exchange-traded fund industry, the same turmoil was powering one young breed of fund to its most-explosive growth yet. Assets in so-called buffer ETFs -- which cushion losses in return for a cap on gains -- have surged 80% to $16 billion so far in 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. They’ve drawn total net inflows of $8 billion in the span, almost triple the amount in all of last year. Buffer funds use options to protect against a certain amount of losses over a time period, but will also simultaneously limit gains. For example, the Innovator US Equity Power Buffer ETF - October (ticker POCT) seeks to buffer against the first 15% of losses in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) in each annual period starting in October. The cap on gains varies each year, but for the current one that began earlier this month, they’ll be limited at around 20%. Stocks have been rattled by the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of rate hikes to tamp down inflation. Investors’ rush toward buffer funds shows a pivot from previous years in which they were less willing to give up potential gains for greater protection. “It always used to be, ‘you know what, I don’t want to miss out on the upside,’” said Athanasios Psarofagis, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Now I feel like the sentiment has completely flopped: ‘I’m willing to give up some of the upside because the downside right now is so much more important to me.’”
Bottom-line: 수년 간 채무불이행 위험이 적은 곳에서 높은 이자를 얻을 방법이 없었음. 중앙은행이 보다 완화적인 정책금리 결정을 이어갈 것이란 기대가 커지면서 포트폴리오 매니저들은 지금 투자등급의 채권이 얼마나 매력적인 때인지 강조하고 있음. 이처럼 도산의 확률이 0에 가까운데 높은 이자를 지급하는 투자등급 채권은 유럽에서 일주일 만에 4.6%에서 4.2%로 금리가 하락하며 랠리를 함. 애널리스트들 또한 불확실한 경제환경에서 투기등급보다 투자등급으로 질적 우수성이 중요함을 강조하고 있음.
The increasing talk of a central bank pivot away from aggressive tightening could introduce an element of fear-of-missing-out in the already popular investment-grade corporate bond market. Investors haven’t been able to get such high yields from safe debt in many years and the prospect of rapidly falling rates could tempt them to lock yields in sooner rather than later. Yields in euro-denominated high-grade bonds fell to their lowest level in three weeks after one of their biggest drops of the year on Thursday. The ECB’s dovish tone helped pull yields down to 4.2% from highs of 4.6% only a week ago. Portfolio managers have been shouting from the rooftops about how attractive carry is in the high-grade market at the moment, as investors can be guaranteed a juicy yield to maturity for almost an almost zero probability of default. And analysts have been voicing their preference for quality as fundamentals look set to deteriorate, primarily impacting the more precarious high yield sector.
The increasing talk of a central bank pivot away from aggressive tightening could introduce an element of fear-of-missing-out in the already popular investment-grade corporate bond market. Investors haven’t been able to get such high yields from safe debt in many years and the prospect of rapidly falling rates could tempt them to lock yields in sooner rather than later. Yields in euro-denominated high-grade bonds fell to their lowest level in three weeks after one of their biggest drops of the year on Thursday. The ECB’s dovish tone helped pull yields down to 4.2% from highs of 4.6% only a week ago. Portfolio managers have been shouting from the rooftops about how attractive carry is in the high-grade market at the moment, as investors can be guaranteed a juicy yield to maturity for almost an almost zero probability of default. And analysts have been voicing their preference for quality as fundamentals look set to deteriorate, primarily impacting the more precarious high yield sector.
Bottom-line: 투자자들이 주식시장에 막대한 자금을 투입하고 있지만 중앙은행의 공격적 정책금리 인상이 이어지며 상승은 제한적일 것으로 봄. 전세계 주식형 펀드에 한 주에 230억 달러가 유입되며 올해 3월 이후 최고치를 기록함. 이 자금들은 중앙은행의 정책 선회 기대감이 촉발한 유입이나 인플레이션이 낮아지거나 실업률이 상승하지 않는 이상 이 기대는 섣부르다 판단함. 금리인상 정점 이후 금리인하로 돌아서는 것 또한 실업률 5.5%로 현재 3.5%과 괴리가 큼. 현재 지수에서 5% 정도를 상단으로, 이후 내년 상반기 주식시장 바닥을 보는 전략가 입장에서는 현재는 짧은 약세 시장의 반등 정도로 평가하고 있음.
Investors are pouring large sums into equities but the rally has limited room to run as the Federal Reserve remains steadfast on hiking interest rates, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Global equity funds saw about $23 billion of inflows in the week through Oct. 26, the largest amount since March, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. In the US, equity funds had $21.4 billion of inflows. Cash funds saw additions of $28.4 billion, while gold saw a $500 million redemption. Still, it’s too early for a Fed policy pivot “absent sudden collapse in inflation & payrolls,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in the note. The central bank normally starts cutting only once the unemployment rate exceeds 5.5% versus the current rate of 3.5%, they said. The S&P 500 is set for a second week of gains as traders parse earnings releases and economic data, with a report showing the US economy rebounded following two quarterly contractions in part due to resilient consumers and businesses. The rally is only a “bear hug,” according to the strategists, who see the S&P 500 extending gains to as much as 4,000 points -- about 5% from the last close -- before pulling back again and hitting a low in the first quarter of next year.
Investors are pouring large sums into equities but the rally has limited room to run as the Federal Reserve remains steadfast on hiking interest rates, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Global equity funds saw about $23 billion of inflows in the week through Oct. 26, the largest amount since March, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. In the US, equity funds had $21.4 billion of inflows. Cash funds saw additions of $28.4 billion, while gold saw a $500 million redemption. Still, it’s too early for a Fed policy pivot “absent sudden collapse in inflation & payrolls,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in the note. The central bank normally starts cutting only once the unemployment rate exceeds 5.5% versus the current rate of 3.5%, they said. The S&P 500 is set for a second week of gains as traders parse earnings releases and economic data, with a report showing the US economy rebounded following two quarterly contractions in part due to resilient consumers and businesses. The rally is only a “bear hug,” according to the strategists, who see the S&P 500 extending gains to as much as 4,000 points -- about 5% from the last close -- before pulling back again and hitting a low in the first quarter of next year.
Market Pulse: 오늘의 지표는 예상치의 근소한 상회/하회보다 여전히 상승 추세의 인플레이션에도 소비가 끊이지 않음이 중앙은행을 자극한단 사실에 주목하고 있음.
A core gauge of US inflation accelerated in September, while consumer spending stayed resilient, indicating price pressures and solid demand that reinforce the Federal Reserve’s case for another big interest-rate hike next week.
A core gauge of US inflation accelerated in September, while consumer spending stayed resilient, indicating price pressures and solid demand that reinforce the Federal Reserve’s case for another big interest-rate hike next week.
Bottom-line: 상원의원 두명이 중앙은행에 정책금리 인상에 대해 간섭한 것에 대해 로렌스 서머스 전 재무장관이 비판했음. 이런 행동은 '바보 게임'이나 다름 없으며, 정치적 압박은 중앙은행으로 하여금 더욱 그들이 독립적이란 것을 증명하고 싶도록 할 것임. 결국 그들은 독립적 주체임을 증명하기 위해 정치적 압박에 전혀 귀 귀울이지 않을 것이며, 긴축적 정책을 더욱 심화할 수도 있을 것이라 함.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized moves to apply political pressure on the Federal Reserve over its aggressive interest-rate hikes, after two Democratic senators wrote the central bank chief this week. “Political pressure is a fool’s game,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. On one hand, the Fed may become even more determined to tighten, in an effort to demonstrate its independence. On the other, public pressure could undermine investor confidence in the Fed’s campaign, he said. “Frankly, the Fed doesn’t listen -- and, if anything, feels more pressure to prove its independence,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg Television. “So they don’t influence short-term rates and what the Fed actually does. But they do raise questions in the mind of market participants, and they raise long-term rates.”
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized moves to apply political pressure on the Federal Reserve over its aggressive interest-rate hikes, after two Democratic senators wrote the central bank chief this week. “Political pressure is a fool’s game,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. On one hand, the Fed may become even more determined to tighten, in an effort to demonstrate its independence. On the other, public pressure could undermine investor confidence in the Fed’s campaign, he said. “Frankly, the Fed doesn’t listen -- and, if anything, feels more pressure to prove its independence,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg Television. “So they don’t influence short-term rates and what the Fed actually does. But they do raise questions in the mind of market participants, and they raise long-term rates.”
Bottom-line: 미국 국채 10년물 금리와 3개월물 금리 차이가 역전됨. 이 두 금리의 차이가 역전되는 것을 일반적으로 가장 강력한 경기침체의 징후로 보고 있음.
Treasury Curve’s Biggest Sign of Recession Yet. After flirting with inversion earlier in the week, the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries has moved decisively into negative territory. In early trading, the spread has gone as low as -14 basis points. The 3mo/10yr spread is often seen as the clearest signal that recession in the US is coming.
Treasury Curve’s Biggest Sign of Recession Yet. After flirting with inversion earlier in the week, the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries has moved decisively into negative territory. In early trading, the spread has gone as low as -14 basis points. The 3mo/10yr spread is often seen as the clearest signal that recession in the US is coming.
Bottom-line: 한국은 세계에서 가장 안전한 곳 중 하나에서 신용 위기로 위태로운 국가로 전락 중임. 현재 최고 등급의 회사채 스프레드까지 3개월 만에 157bp 확대됐고, 심지어 급여와 같은 단기성 자금조달을 위해 발행되는 채권의 금리까지 13년래 최고치까지 상승함. 이는 9월 강원도의 레고랜드 사태 이후 정부 지원의 차주조차 신용위기에 노출되어 취약할 수 있음이 드러나며 빠르게 악화됨. 특히 부동산 사업에 있어 주요한 자금조달원인 PF-ABCP 부실이 더욱 심각해질 수 있다는 공포가 확산되고 있음. 이와 관련해 증권사 및 건설사가 약 23조 6천억원의 자금이 노출되어 있는 것으로 파악됨.
Past financial crises are haunting South Korean policy makers as they rush to support a local credit market that’s quickly gone from one of the world’s safest to teetering on the brink. As Korea gets swept into a global debt market rout, corporate treasurers and market regulators in Seoul are staring down one of the most rapid deteriorations in the nation’s credit market ever. The rout is one of the worst in Asia’s local-currency markets amid a broader fixed-income slump this year. Yields on top-rated five-year Korean corporate debt have spiked 157 basis points in the three months through October, the worst such blowout on record. One particularly alarming development has been yields surging to a 13-year high on local commercial paper, which companies use to raise funds for short-term payments like payroll. The spike in the cost to borrow in that key money market intensified after a shock default in late September, when the developer of the Legoland Korea theme park in Gangwon Province to the northeast of Seoul missed payment on a kind of commercial paper repackaging loans. The builder’s largest shareholder is Gangwon, underscoring fears that in the new global era of rising interest rates, even borrowers with government backing are vulnerable. The type of financial engineering involved in that case is called project finance asset-backed commercial paper, or PF-ABCP as the Korean press shorthands it. It’s a key source of funds for the broader property sector. The real estate industry, as in many countries, is already straining under the impact of rising rates, amplifying fears that loans tied to construction projects underpinning the PF-ABCP could start souring more ahead. There’s a lot at stake, with at least 23.6 trillion won ($16.6 billion) of such instruments backed by brokerages or builders set to mature by the end of 2022, according to NICE Investors Service.
Past financial crises are haunting South Korean policy makers as they rush to support a local credit market that’s quickly gone from one of the world’s safest to teetering on the brink. As Korea gets swept into a global debt market rout, corporate treasurers and market regulators in Seoul are staring down one of the most rapid deteriorations in the nation’s credit market ever. The rout is one of the worst in Asia’s local-currency markets amid a broader fixed-income slump this year. Yields on top-rated five-year Korean corporate debt have spiked 157 basis points in the three months through October, the worst such blowout on record. One particularly alarming development has been yields surging to a 13-year high on local commercial paper, which companies use to raise funds for short-term payments like payroll. The spike in the cost to borrow in that key money market intensified after a shock default in late September, when the developer of the Legoland Korea theme park in Gangwon Province to the northeast of Seoul missed payment on a kind of commercial paper repackaging loans. The builder’s largest shareholder is Gangwon, underscoring fears that in the new global era of rising interest rates, even borrowers with government backing are vulnerable. The type of financial engineering involved in that case is called project finance asset-backed commercial paper, or PF-ABCP as the Korean press shorthands it. It’s a key source of funds for the broader property sector. The real estate industry, as in many countries, is already straining under the impact of rising rates, amplifying fears that loans tied to construction projects underpinning the PF-ABCP could start souring more ahead. There’s a lot at stake, with at least 23.6 trillion won ($16.6 billion) of such instruments backed by brokerages or builders set to mature by the end of 2022, according to NICE Investors Service.
아시는 분들은 아시겠지만, 저 또한 업계 종사자로써 우리 업계가 어떤지 월간으로 동향을 체크해봅니다.
한국형 헤지펀드 시장 (2022.10)
1. 설정액 1,000억원 이상 펀드는 총 59개며, 전략은 총 7개로 나눠짐. 흔히 생각하는 위험자산 형태의 헤지펀드 전략은 Multi Strategy(주식형이지만 메자닌과 비상장이 포함되는 형태), Equity Long Hedge, Equity Long/Short Hedge, Equity Global Hedge가 있음. 나머지는 대체투자(부동산) 혹은 수익형(채권) 펀드 전략임.
2. 최근 1개월 간 1,000억원 이상 설정액의 펀드에서 전략별 수익률 평균은 Multi Strategy +0.12%, Equity Long/Short Hedge +1.05%, Equity Long Hedge -6.31%, Equity Global Hedge -4.20%, Fixed Income -0.95%, Alternative -2.05%임. 흥미로운 점은 대체투자와 수익형 펀드가 위험자산에서 투자자들이 멀리 떠나면서 급격하게 설정액이 커졌는데, 이들의 'Safe haven' 성격이 최근 많이 왜곡되고 있음. 연 초 이후 수익률을 볼 때 Fixed Income에서 설정액이 가장 큰(8,260억원) 펀드의 수익률이 -10.50%, 두번째와 세번째로 큰 설정액(각각 4,888억원, 4,531억원)의 펀드 수익률이 각각 -7.87%, -9.55%임. 금리상승에 따른 영향을 받고 있음.
3. 위험자산을 다루는 헤지펀드 전략에서 Multi Strategy가 가장 큰 비중을 차지함. 독과점 구조라 할 수 있는데, 설정액 1,000억 이상을 기준으로 할 때, 4개 운용사가 15개의 펀드에서 3조 1,444억원의 설정액을 가지고 있음. 이들 펀드의 연 초 이후 수익률 평균은 -1.34%임. 이 전략에서 단일 펀드로 가장 큰 설정액은 6,672억원(NH Absolute Return Hedge Fund)임.
4. 설정액 500억원 이상 1,000억 미만 펀드는 총 77개며, 전략별로 볼 때 1개월 간 수익률 평균은 Multi Strategy +0.11%, Equity Long/Short Hedge -0.24%, Equity Long Hedge +2.60%, Equity Global Hedge -9.10%, Fixed Income -0.92%, Alternative +0.40%임.
5. 설정액 500억원 이상 1,000억 미만 펀드의 경우 53개 운용사가 분산되어 운용 중임. 이들이 운용 중인 펀드가 설정 된 해를 보면 2022년 21개, 2021년 24개, 2020년 7개, 2019년 8개로 총 60개의 펀드가 최근 4년간 설정되었음. 설정액 1,000억원 이상의 59개 펀드의 설정 된 해가 2022년 13개, 2021년 10개, 2020년 12개, 2019년 2개로 37개의 펀드인 점을 다소 차이를 보임. 1,000억 이상의 펀드 중 2013년에서 2017년 사이 설정 된 펀드가 18개며, 이 중 2016년이 11개 설정으로 가장 많았음.
6. 펀드 설정액 변동을 살펴보면, 1,000억원 이상 펀드에서 9월 말 대비로 Fixed Income에서 총 625억원 유출, Multi Strategy에서 총 526억원 유출, Equity Long/Short Hedge에서 총 -297억원이 유출됨. 반대로 Alternative에는 218억원이 유입되었음.
한국형 헤지펀드 시장 (2022.10)
1. 설정액 1,000억원 이상 펀드는 총 59개며, 전략은 총 7개로 나눠짐. 흔히 생각하는 위험자산 형태의 헤지펀드 전략은 Multi Strategy(주식형이지만 메자닌과 비상장이 포함되는 형태), Equity Long Hedge, Equity Long/Short Hedge, Equity Global Hedge가 있음. 나머지는 대체투자(부동산) 혹은 수익형(채권) 펀드 전략임.
2. 최근 1개월 간 1,000억원 이상 설정액의 펀드에서 전략별 수익률 평균은 Multi Strategy +0.12%, Equity Long/Short Hedge +1.05%, Equity Long Hedge -6.31%, Equity Global Hedge -4.20%, Fixed Income -0.95%, Alternative -2.05%임. 흥미로운 점은 대체투자와 수익형 펀드가 위험자산에서 투자자들이 멀리 떠나면서 급격하게 설정액이 커졌는데, 이들의 'Safe haven' 성격이 최근 많이 왜곡되고 있음. 연 초 이후 수익률을 볼 때 Fixed Income에서 설정액이 가장 큰(8,260억원) 펀드의 수익률이 -10.50%, 두번째와 세번째로 큰 설정액(각각 4,888억원, 4,531억원)의 펀드 수익률이 각각 -7.87%, -9.55%임. 금리상승에 따른 영향을 받고 있음.
3. 위험자산을 다루는 헤지펀드 전략에서 Multi Strategy가 가장 큰 비중을 차지함. 독과점 구조라 할 수 있는데, 설정액 1,000억 이상을 기준으로 할 때, 4개 운용사가 15개의 펀드에서 3조 1,444억원의 설정액을 가지고 있음. 이들 펀드의 연 초 이후 수익률 평균은 -1.34%임. 이 전략에서 단일 펀드로 가장 큰 설정액은 6,672억원(NH Absolute Return Hedge Fund)임.
4. 설정액 500억원 이상 1,000억 미만 펀드는 총 77개며, 전략별로 볼 때 1개월 간 수익률 평균은 Multi Strategy +0.11%, Equity Long/Short Hedge -0.24%, Equity Long Hedge +2.60%, Equity Global Hedge -9.10%, Fixed Income -0.92%, Alternative +0.40%임.
5. 설정액 500억원 이상 1,000억 미만 펀드의 경우 53개 운용사가 분산되어 운용 중임. 이들이 운용 중인 펀드가 설정 된 해를 보면 2022년 21개, 2021년 24개, 2020년 7개, 2019년 8개로 총 60개의 펀드가 최근 4년간 설정되었음. 설정액 1,000억원 이상의 59개 펀드의 설정 된 해가 2022년 13개, 2021년 10개, 2020년 12개, 2019년 2개로 37개의 펀드인 점을 다소 차이를 보임. 1,000억 이상의 펀드 중 2013년에서 2017년 사이 설정 된 펀드가 18개며, 이 중 2016년이 11개 설정으로 가장 많았음.
6. 펀드 설정액 변동을 살펴보면, 1,000억원 이상 펀드에서 9월 말 대비로 Fixed Income에서 총 625억원 유출, Multi Strategy에서 총 526억원 유출, Equity Long/Short Hedge에서 총 -297억원이 유출됨. 반대로 Alternative에는 218억원이 유입되었음.
Bottom-line: 견고한 노동시장은 인플레이션을 억제하려는 중앙은행의 노력, 그리고 경기침체가 임박했다는 경제학자들의 주장이 무시되고 있음. 물론 근로자에겐 이같은 노동시장의 활황이 좋은 일이지만, 조달비용이 높아지고 성장률이 둔화되는 중에 실업률만 낮은 상황이 임금의 상방압력과 가계소비의 탄력을 만들면서 인플레이션을 통제하려는 중앙은행에 어려움을 주고있음. OECD 38개 회원국 중 80%가 바이러스 대확산 이전 혹은 그 수준의 낮은 실업률에 머무르고 있음. 전반적인 노동시장의 강세가 소비를 강하게 지탱시켜주고 있음. 이처럼 고용시장이 지속 견조하다면 중앙은행은 완화적 태도로 돌아서기 어려울 것임.
Robust labor markets are defying central bankers’ efforts to tamp down inflation and economists’ predictions that recession is just around the corner. The strong job market is good for workers. But it’s bad for inflation, signalling to the world’s central banks, which are raising interest rates at the most aggressive pace in decades, that they can’t ease up. As borrowing costs surge and growth slows, unemployment rates are not rising. Instead, companies across developed economies are complaining of chronic worker shortages. A persistent mismatch between demand for new hires and the supply of workers is supporting wages and shielding consumers from slowdowns just when central banks need fading demand to cool inflation. As of September, employment across manufacturers and service providers globally had climbed each month for the last two years, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. gauge produced by S&P Global. And the OECD said unemployment in its 38 member nations reached 4.9% in August. The rate was below or equal to the pre-pandemic level in 80% of the countries. “You do see broad-based strength in labor markets,” said Joseph Lupton, global economist at JPMorgan. “Strong job growth is absolutely the central support for the consumer.”. When and if job growth starts to crack will help determine when central banks can slow or even stop raising rates. So long as hiring remains resilient, they may be reluctant to ease up.
Robust labor markets are defying central bankers’ efforts to tamp down inflation and economists’ predictions that recession is just around the corner. The strong job market is good for workers. But it’s bad for inflation, signalling to the world’s central banks, which are raising interest rates at the most aggressive pace in decades, that they can’t ease up. As borrowing costs surge and growth slows, unemployment rates are not rising. Instead, companies across developed economies are complaining of chronic worker shortages. A persistent mismatch between demand for new hires and the supply of workers is supporting wages and shielding consumers from slowdowns just when central banks need fading demand to cool inflation. As of September, employment across manufacturers and service providers globally had climbed each month for the last two years, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. gauge produced by S&P Global. And the OECD said unemployment in its 38 member nations reached 4.9% in August. The rate was below or equal to the pre-pandemic level in 80% of the countries. “You do see broad-based strength in labor markets,” said Joseph Lupton, global economist at JPMorgan. “Strong job growth is absolutely the central support for the consumer.”. When and if job growth starts to crack will help determine when central banks can slow or even stop raising rates. So long as hiring remains resilient, they may be reluctant to ease up.