In Case You Missed It
• 정책금리 인상에 따른 채권 회피 현상
• 물가지표 쇼크에도 반등한 이유는?
• 주가 반등을 크게 만든 알고리즘 매매
• 정책금리 6%가 될 수 있는 경우는?
• 옵션에 대한 개인적 생각
• 변동성은 왜 낮을까에 대한 사담
• R*와 R**에 대한 사담
• R**는 출구를 위한 변명일까?
• 파월은 어떤 사람으로 기억되고 싶을까?
• 정책금리 인상에 따른 채권 회피 현상
• 물가지표 쇼크에도 반등한 이유는?
• 주가 반등을 크게 만든 알고리즘 매매
• 정책금리 6%가 될 수 있는 경우는?
• 옵션에 대한 개인적 생각
• 변동성은 왜 낮을까에 대한 사담
• R*와 R**에 대한 사담
• R**는 출구를 위한 변명일까?
• 파월은 어떤 사람으로 기억되고 싶을까?
Bottom-line: 바이러스 억제 정책을 완화하는데 대한 움직임 없다고 답변함.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said he’s “not aware of what you mentioned,” when asked whether the government formed a committee to assess ways to exit Covid Zero.
'unconfirmed social media posts speculating that a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit Covid Zero.'
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said he’s “not aware of what you mentioned,” when asked whether the government formed a committee to assess ways to exit Covid Zero.
'unconfirmed social media posts speculating that a committee was being formed to assess scenarios on how to exit Covid Zero.'
Bottom-line: 이미 많은 국채 수익률 차이를 계산하는 방식이 0 이하로 떨어진 상태에서 중앙은행이 가장 주시한다는 3개월-18개월 차이가 0에 근접하고 있음. 이에 따라 4.34%로 2007년 이후 최고치를 기록했던 미국 국채 10년물 금리가 3.94%까지 하락하며 채권 랠리를 이어가고 있음. 지난 3월 많은 채권 거래자들이 국채 2년물 금리가 국채 10년물 금리를 상회할 때 경고했던 경기침체의 위험을 파월은 잘못됐다 말하면서 3개월-18개월 수익률 차이를 보자고 했었음. 만일 이 수익률이 역전되면 경기가 약해졌다는 이야기고, 금리를 인하할 수 있다고 했기 때문임.
Bonds rallied ahead of what promises to be the Federal Reserve’s fifth-straight outsized rate hike later this week amid fresh warnings that a recession is inevitable as the central bank continues to tighten policy. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell as much as 11 basis points to 3.94%, compared to a peak of 4.34% last month, the highest since 2007. Traders are looking ahead to ISM manufacturing data for further clues on the state of the US economy before the Fed sets policy on Wednesday, where another three-quarter point hike looks like a near certainty. Bund yields fell 10 basis points to 2.05%. The rush for bonds comes as Chair Jerome Powell’s favored portion of the yield curve -- the difference between where three-month rates are now versus where they are expected to be in 18 months’ time -- is on the cusp of inverting, with the spread between the two tumbling to a mere 0.2 percentage points Tuesday from 2.7 percentage points in April. An inverted yield curve is a key warning sign for many investors that a recession is coming as the market begins to price in an end to tighter policy and braces for lower rates in the future to soften the blow of a looming slowdown. Many closely-watched spreads in the Treasury market have already flipped below zero. In March, Powell downplayed the significance of two-year yields rising above 10-year rates -- an often-cited harbinger of recession. He argued traders were looking at the wrong metric and that the shorter-end measure gives a clearer read because “if it’s inverted, that means the Fed’s going to cut, which means the economy is weak.”.
Bonds rallied ahead of what promises to be the Federal Reserve’s fifth-straight outsized rate hike later this week amid fresh warnings that a recession is inevitable as the central bank continues to tighten policy. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell as much as 11 basis points to 3.94%, compared to a peak of 4.34% last month, the highest since 2007. Traders are looking ahead to ISM manufacturing data for further clues on the state of the US economy before the Fed sets policy on Wednesday, where another three-quarter point hike looks like a near certainty. Bund yields fell 10 basis points to 2.05%. The rush for bonds comes as Chair Jerome Powell’s favored portion of the yield curve -- the difference between where three-month rates are now versus where they are expected to be in 18 months’ time -- is on the cusp of inverting, with the spread between the two tumbling to a mere 0.2 percentage points Tuesday from 2.7 percentage points in April. An inverted yield curve is a key warning sign for many investors that a recession is coming as the market begins to price in an end to tighter policy and braces for lower rates in the future to soften the blow of a looming slowdown. Many closely-watched spreads in the Treasury market have already flipped below zero. In March, Powell downplayed the significance of two-year yields rising above 10-year rates -- an often-cited harbinger of recession. He argued traders were looking at the wrong metric and that the shorter-end measure gives a clearer read because “if it’s inverted, that means the Fed’s going to cut, which means the economy is weak.”.
Bottom-line: 이렇게 좋을지 몰랐고, 중앙은행을 압박할 것임.
Job Openings in US Unexpectedly Rise, Keeping Pressure on Fed.
Job Openings in US Unexpectedly Rise, Keeping Pressure on Fed.
The Treasury curve flattened after the US October manufacturing report beat estimates, even as prices eased. Components of new orders, production and employment rose. At the same time, prices paid fell into contraction and to the lowest since the start of the pandemic. Backlogs and supplier deliveries also slipped into contraction -- meaning product snarls are easing. The net of the report is that demand remains strong and prices are declining. While the latter is good news for the Fed, demand remains firm, and the central bank has said it cannot take the foot off tightening for fear of inflation resurging again.
Bottom-line: 고용시장 지표에서 여전히 일자리가 풍족하며 노동자를 구하는데 어려움이 있다는 것을 알 수 있었음. 제조업 지표에서는 신규 주문, 생산, 고용이 상승하며 여전히 강한 수요를 확인시켰음. 이는 중앙은행이 속도를 조절 할 것이란 기대를 무산시킴. 강한 고용에 대한 욕구는 기업들의 단기 수요에 대한 자신감에서 발현되었고, 이는 임금상승과 가계소비 증가를 견인할 것이므로 중앙은행에 압박으로 작용함. 칸서스나 달라스 제조업 지표에서도 직무 전문성을 위해 직원을 교육하는데 자원을 투입하거나, 직원이 상당히 부족해 적극적 고용의 의사가 있다고 답변했었음.
The labor market remains plenty strong. That might lend to more flattening of the Treasury curve. As we’ve flagged earlier, today’s JOLTS report showed a surprise jump in job vacancies, potentially frustrating the Fed’s downshift plan. Plus, the October ISM manufacturing signaled new orders, production and employment components rose as demand remains strong. Like in September, mentions of large-scale layoffs were absent from ISM panelists’ comments. And survey panelists said they continue to carefully manage hiring. That may indicate companies are confident of near-term demand. A strong appetite for labor fuels wage gains, strengthens consumer demand and adds to what has been described as much too high inflation. That keeps pressure on the Fed to keep on tightening. Meanwhile, last week’s Kansas City Fed factory survey showed 65% of firms devoting significantly or slightly more resources to training workers in order to meet skill requirements. This shows a commitment to current workforces. And as mentioned Monday, 62.8% of firms report being short staffed, according to the most recent Dallas Fed business outlook survey. More than half of those firms actively engaged potential workers. Those are all signals of a strong job market and reasons for Fed tightening and curve narrowing to continue.
The labor market remains plenty strong. That might lend to more flattening of the Treasury curve. As we’ve flagged earlier, today’s JOLTS report showed a surprise jump in job vacancies, potentially frustrating the Fed’s downshift plan. Plus, the October ISM manufacturing signaled new orders, production and employment components rose as demand remains strong. Like in September, mentions of large-scale layoffs were absent from ISM panelists’ comments. And survey panelists said they continue to carefully manage hiring. That may indicate companies are confident of near-term demand. A strong appetite for labor fuels wage gains, strengthens consumer demand and adds to what has been described as much too high inflation. That keeps pressure on the Fed to keep on tightening. Meanwhile, last week’s Kansas City Fed factory survey showed 65% of firms devoting significantly or slightly more resources to training workers in order to meet skill requirements. This shows a commitment to current workforces. And as mentioned Monday, 62.8% of firms report being short staffed, according to the most recent Dallas Fed business outlook survey. More than half of those firms actively engaged potential workers. Those are all signals of a strong job market and reasons for Fed tightening and curve narrowing to continue.
Bottom-line: 래리 서머스는 중앙은행의 금리인상이 중단되어야 한다는 목소리가 커지는 것에 대해 경계해야 한다고 주장함. 바이러스 대확산 이후 경제 전문가들의 인플레이션에 대한 예상은 지속 틀려왔으며, 핵심물가지수가 6%를 넘어가는 시기에 정책금리 4%의 수준으로 물가가 2%까지 떨어질 수 있다고 진심으로 믿는 사람이 있는가라고 반문하면서, 중앙은행이 지금의 길을 그대로 가야 한다고 주장함.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says in a tweet that the “growing chorus” for the Fed to pause interest rate hikes very soon is “badly misguided.”. The president emeritus of Harvard University says that this is “consensus of economists who have a track record, since COVID, of being dismally wrong on inflation.”. He adds that history shows that the Fed has paused too soon many times and asks, “Does anyone really believe that raising rates beyond 4 will bring core inflation from well above 6 percent down below 2 percent?”. He concludes that the Federal Reserve should “stay on the current course and then evaluate things.”.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says in a tweet that the “growing chorus” for the Fed to pause interest rate hikes very soon is “badly misguided.”. The president emeritus of Harvard University says that this is “consensus of economists who have a track record, since COVID, of being dismally wrong on inflation.”. He adds that history shows that the Fed has paused too soon many times and asks, “Does anyone really believe that raising rates beyond 4 will bring core inflation from well above 6 percent down below 2 percent?”. He concludes that the Federal Reserve should “stay on the current course and then evaluate things.”.
Bottom-line: 세계 최대의 해운사인 머스크가 중앙은행의 금리결정을 몇 시간 앞두고 수요 약화로 컨테이너 수요가 4% 감소할 것이라 발표했음. 하지만 인플레이션이 완화되길 바라는 투자자에겐 수요 둔화가 인플레이션을 진작시킬 것이란 기대에 나쁜 뉴스가 있었음. 바이러스 대확산 이후 지속되는 비용 압력이 에너지 가격과 노동력 부족으로 인해 지속될 것이라 말하며, 공급망 전반에 걸친 비용 상승이 예상된다고 함. 이런 머스크의 발언은 인플레이션을 진정시키려고 하는 중앙은행에게 보내는 새로운 경고임. 특히 그는 에너지 비용 외에 임금과 관련하여 많은 국가에 걸쳐 '매우 매우 강한' 노동시장이 형성되어 있다고 발언하며 이 지점에서 갑작스럽게 인플레이션이 하락할 수 있다면 그건 놀라운 일이라 발언함.
One of the world’s biggest shipping companies just issued a downbeat assessment of the global economy, saying container demand will fall as much as 4% this year. For those hoping this will rapidly cool inflation, it had more bad news. Alongside its demand downgrade, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S said the price pressures that have come to dominate the post-pandemic economy -- while easing a bit -- are going to stick around for a while as elevated energy prices and labor shortages prop up costs across supply chains. The outlook from Maersk, which moves millions of containers around the world every year, is a fresh warning for central banks that their inflation battles may be far from over. It comes hours before the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a fourth jumbo interest-rate increase and reiterate that it remains steadfast in its task. The European Central Bank hiked last week at a second straight meeting, and the Bank of England is due to lift its benchmark on Thursday. “Freight rates are coming down -- that will detract from inflation -- but we still have very high energy costs and we also have a very, very strong labor market in most countries,” Maersk Chief Executive Soren Skou said on Bloomberg Television. “So I’d be surprised if inflation comes down rapidly from here.”
One of the world’s biggest shipping companies just issued a downbeat assessment of the global economy, saying container demand will fall as much as 4% this year. For those hoping this will rapidly cool inflation, it had more bad news. Alongside its demand downgrade, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S said the price pressures that have come to dominate the post-pandemic economy -- while easing a bit -- are going to stick around for a while as elevated energy prices and labor shortages prop up costs across supply chains. The outlook from Maersk, which moves millions of containers around the world every year, is a fresh warning for central banks that their inflation battles may be far from over. It comes hours before the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a fourth jumbo interest-rate increase and reiterate that it remains steadfast in its task. The European Central Bank hiked last week at a second straight meeting, and the Bank of England is due to lift its benchmark on Thursday. “Freight rates are coming down -- that will detract from inflation -- but we still have very high energy costs and we also have a very, very strong labor market in most countries,” Maersk Chief Executive Soren Skou said on Bloomberg Television. “So I’d be surprised if inflation comes down rapidly from here.”
Bottom-line: Boom!
Hiring at US companies accelerated for a second month in October, mainly reflecting a surge in leisure and hospitality and underscoring resilient labor demand despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy. Private payrolls rose 239,000 last month after a revised 192,000 gain in September, according to data from ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 185,000 advance.
Hiring at US companies accelerated for a second month in October, mainly reflecting a surge in leisure and hospitality and underscoring resilient labor demand despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy. Private payrolls rose 239,000 last month after a revised 192,000 gain in September, according to data from ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 185,000 advance.
Federal Reserve officials delivered their fourth straight 75 basis-point interest-rate increase while also signaling their aggressive campaign to curb inflation could be approaching its final phase.
Bottom-line: 통화정책이 경제활동과 인플레이션에 미치는 영향을 고려하겠다는 문구 추가로 긴축의 정점에 대한 신호를 줌.
Another big change to the statement is a new line with a signal that tightening is entering the final phase: “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
Another big change to the statement is a new line with a signal that tightening is entering the final phase: “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
Bottom-line: 최근 중앙은행을 압박했던 민주당은 이 문구를 통해 본인들의 요구를 수용했다 생각할 수도 있음. 연설을 두고 보겠음.
Democratic lawmakers, some of whom have lately been pressing the Fed to consider the damage of going too aggressively, might in particular appreciate the statement’s recognition of lagged effects. They might even point to the Fed as having listened. We’ll see.
Democratic lawmakers, some of whom have lately been pressing the Fed to consider the damage of going too aggressively, might in particular appreciate the statement’s recognition of lagged effects. They might even point to the Fed as having listened. We’ll see.
• Job gains have been robust, with wage gains high and job vacancies still high. The labor market remains “out of balance,” he says.
고용시장이 여전히 균형을 벗어나 있다고 발언함.
고용시장이 여전히 균형을 벗어나 있다고 발언함.
• Powell’s comment that “the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers” reinforces the notion that the Fed is looking at both employment and inflation as giving it plenty of reasons to keep tightening.
이는 중앙은행이 지속 긴축해야 할 근거를 제시하고 있다 발언함.
이는 중앙은행이 지속 긴축해야 할 근거를 제시하고 있다 발언함.
• Powell says “at some point” it will become “appropriate to slow the pace of increases.” But there is “significant uncertainty” around that end-point.
언젠가 긴축의 속도를 늦춰야 하며, 중앙은행의 두 책무가 그렇다. 하지만 시점에 대해서는 상당한 불확실성이 있다 발언함.
언젠가 긴축의 속도를 늦춰야 하며, 중앙은행의 두 책무가 그렇다. 하지만 시점에 대해서는 상당한 불확실성이 있다 발언함.