Bottom-line: 이렇게 좋을지 몰랐고, 중앙은행을 압박할 것임.
Job Openings in US Unexpectedly Rise, Keeping Pressure on Fed.
Job Openings in US Unexpectedly Rise, Keeping Pressure on Fed.
The Treasury curve flattened after the US October manufacturing report beat estimates, even as prices eased. Components of new orders, production and employment rose. At the same time, prices paid fell into contraction and to the lowest since the start of the pandemic. Backlogs and supplier deliveries also slipped into contraction -- meaning product snarls are easing. The net of the report is that demand remains strong and prices are declining. While the latter is good news for the Fed, demand remains firm, and the central bank has said it cannot take the foot off tightening for fear of inflation resurging again.
Bottom-line: 고용시장 지표에서 여전히 일자리가 풍족하며 노동자를 구하는데 어려움이 있다는 것을 알 수 있었음. 제조업 지표에서는 신규 주문, 생산, 고용이 상승하며 여전히 강한 수요를 확인시켰음. 이는 중앙은행이 속도를 조절 할 것이란 기대를 무산시킴. 강한 고용에 대한 욕구는 기업들의 단기 수요에 대한 자신감에서 발현되었고, 이는 임금상승과 가계소비 증가를 견인할 것이므로 중앙은행에 압박으로 작용함. 칸서스나 달라스 제조업 지표에서도 직무 전문성을 위해 직원을 교육하는데 자원을 투입하거나, 직원이 상당히 부족해 적극적 고용의 의사가 있다고 답변했었음.
The labor market remains plenty strong. That might lend to more flattening of the Treasury curve. As we’ve flagged earlier, today’s JOLTS report showed a surprise jump in job vacancies, potentially frustrating the Fed’s downshift plan. Plus, the October ISM manufacturing signaled new orders, production and employment components rose as demand remains strong. Like in September, mentions of large-scale layoffs were absent from ISM panelists’ comments. And survey panelists said they continue to carefully manage hiring. That may indicate companies are confident of near-term demand. A strong appetite for labor fuels wage gains, strengthens consumer demand and adds to what has been described as much too high inflation. That keeps pressure on the Fed to keep on tightening. Meanwhile, last week’s Kansas City Fed factory survey showed 65% of firms devoting significantly or slightly more resources to training workers in order to meet skill requirements. This shows a commitment to current workforces. And as mentioned Monday, 62.8% of firms report being short staffed, according to the most recent Dallas Fed business outlook survey. More than half of those firms actively engaged potential workers. Those are all signals of a strong job market and reasons for Fed tightening and curve narrowing to continue.
The labor market remains plenty strong. That might lend to more flattening of the Treasury curve. As we’ve flagged earlier, today’s JOLTS report showed a surprise jump in job vacancies, potentially frustrating the Fed’s downshift plan. Plus, the October ISM manufacturing signaled new orders, production and employment components rose as demand remains strong. Like in September, mentions of large-scale layoffs were absent from ISM panelists’ comments. And survey panelists said they continue to carefully manage hiring. That may indicate companies are confident of near-term demand. A strong appetite for labor fuels wage gains, strengthens consumer demand and adds to what has been described as much too high inflation. That keeps pressure on the Fed to keep on tightening. Meanwhile, last week’s Kansas City Fed factory survey showed 65% of firms devoting significantly or slightly more resources to training workers in order to meet skill requirements. This shows a commitment to current workforces. And as mentioned Monday, 62.8% of firms report being short staffed, according to the most recent Dallas Fed business outlook survey. More than half of those firms actively engaged potential workers. Those are all signals of a strong job market and reasons for Fed tightening and curve narrowing to continue.
Bottom-line: 래리 서머스는 중앙은행의 금리인상이 중단되어야 한다는 목소리가 커지는 것에 대해 경계해야 한다고 주장함. 바이러스 대확산 이후 경제 전문가들의 인플레이션에 대한 예상은 지속 틀려왔으며, 핵심물가지수가 6%를 넘어가는 시기에 정책금리 4%의 수준으로 물가가 2%까지 떨어질 수 있다고 진심으로 믿는 사람이 있는가라고 반문하면서, 중앙은행이 지금의 길을 그대로 가야 한다고 주장함.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says in a tweet that the “growing chorus” for the Fed to pause interest rate hikes very soon is “badly misguided.”. The president emeritus of Harvard University says that this is “consensus of economists who have a track record, since COVID, of being dismally wrong on inflation.”. He adds that history shows that the Fed has paused too soon many times and asks, “Does anyone really believe that raising rates beyond 4 will bring core inflation from well above 6 percent down below 2 percent?”. He concludes that the Federal Reserve should “stay on the current course and then evaluate things.”.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says in a tweet that the “growing chorus” for the Fed to pause interest rate hikes very soon is “badly misguided.”. The president emeritus of Harvard University says that this is “consensus of economists who have a track record, since COVID, of being dismally wrong on inflation.”. He adds that history shows that the Fed has paused too soon many times and asks, “Does anyone really believe that raising rates beyond 4 will bring core inflation from well above 6 percent down below 2 percent?”. He concludes that the Federal Reserve should “stay on the current course and then evaluate things.”.
Bottom-line: 세계 최대의 해운사인 머스크가 중앙은행의 금리결정을 몇 시간 앞두고 수요 약화로 컨테이너 수요가 4% 감소할 것이라 발표했음. 하지만 인플레이션이 완화되길 바라는 투자자에겐 수요 둔화가 인플레이션을 진작시킬 것이란 기대에 나쁜 뉴스가 있었음. 바이러스 대확산 이후 지속되는 비용 압력이 에너지 가격과 노동력 부족으로 인해 지속될 것이라 말하며, 공급망 전반에 걸친 비용 상승이 예상된다고 함. 이런 머스크의 발언은 인플레이션을 진정시키려고 하는 중앙은행에게 보내는 새로운 경고임. 특히 그는 에너지 비용 외에 임금과 관련하여 많은 국가에 걸쳐 '매우 매우 강한' 노동시장이 형성되어 있다고 발언하며 이 지점에서 갑작스럽게 인플레이션이 하락할 수 있다면 그건 놀라운 일이라 발언함.
One of the world’s biggest shipping companies just issued a downbeat assessment of the global economy, saying container demand will fall as much as 4% this year. For those hoping this will rapidly cool inflation, it had more bad news. Alongside its demand downgrade, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S said the price pressures that have come to dominate the post-pandemic economy -- while easing a bit -- are going to stick around for a while as elevated energy prices and labor shortages prop up costs across supply chains. The outlook from Maersk, which moves millions of containers around the world every year, is a fresh warning for central banks that their inflation battles may be far from over. It comes hours before the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a fourth jumbo interest-rate increase and reiterate that it remains steadfast in its task. The European Central Bank hiked last week at a second straight meeting, and the Bank of England is due to lift its benchmark on Thursday. “Freight rates are coming down -- that will detract from inflation -- but we still have very high energy costs and we also have a very, very strong labor market in most countries,” Maersk Chief Executive Soren Skou said on Bloomberg Television. “So I’d be surprised if inflation comes down rapidly from here.”
One of the world’s biggest shipping companies just issued a downbeat assessment of the global economy, saying container demand will fall as much as 4% this year. For those hoping this will rapidly cool inflation, it had more bad news. Alongside its demand downgrade, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S said the price pressures that have come to dominate the post-pandemic economy -- while easing a bit -- are going to stick around for a while as elevated energy prices and labor shortages prop up costs across supply chains. The outlook from Maersk, which moves millions of containers around the world every year, is a fresh warning for central banks that their inflation battles may be far from over. It comes hours before the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a fourth jumbo interest-rate increase and reiterate that it remains steadfast in its task. The European Central Bank hiked last week at a second straight meeting, and the Bank of England is due to lift its benchmark on Thursday. “Freight rates are coming down -- that will detract from inflation -- but we still have very high energy costs and we also have a very, very strong labor market in most countries,” Maersk Chief Executive Soren Skou said on Bloomberg Television. “So I’d be surprised if inflation comes down rapidly from here.”
Bottom-line: Boom!
Hiring at US companies accelerated for a second month in October, mainly reflecting a surge in leisure and hospitality and underscoring resilient labor demand despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy. Private payrolls rose 239,000 last month after a revised 192,000 gain in September, according to data from ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 185,000 advance.
Hiring at US companies accelerated for a second month in October, mainly reflecting a surge in leisure and hospitality and underscoring resilient labor demand despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy. Private payrolls rose 239,000 last month after a revised 192,000 gain in September, according to data from ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 185,000 advance.
Federal Reserve officials delivered their fourth straight 75 basis-point interest-rate increase while also signaling their aggressive campaign to curb inflation could be approaching its final phase.
Bottom-line: 통화정책이 경제활동과 인플레이션에 미치는 영향을 고려하겠다는 문구 추가로 긴축의 정점에 대한 신호를 줌.
Another big change to the statement is a new line with a signal that tightening is entering the final phase: “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
Another big change to the statement is a new line with a signal that tightening is entering the final phase: “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
Bottom-line: 최근 중앙은행을 압박했던 민주당은 이 문구를 통해 본인들의 요구를 수용했다 생각할 수도 있음. 연설을 두고 보겠음.
Democratic lawmakers, some of whom have lately been pressing the Fed to consider the damage of going too aggressively, might in particular appreciate the statement’s recognition of lagged effects. They might even point to the Fed as having listened. We’ll see.
Democratic lawmakers, some of whom have lately been pressing the Fed to consider the damage of going too aggressively, might in particular appreciate the statement’s recognition of lagged effects. They might even point to the Fed as having listened. We’ll see.
• Job gains have been robust, with wage gains high and job vacancies still high. The labor market remains “out of balance,” he says.
고용시장이 여전히 균형을 벗어나 있다고 발언함.
고용시장이 여전히 균형을 벗어나 있다고 발언함.
• Powell’s comment that “the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers” reinforces the notion that the Fed is looking at both employment and inflation as giving it plenty of reasons to keep tightening.
이는 중앙은행이 지속 긴축해야 할 근거를 제시하고 있다 발언함.
이는 중앙은행이 지속 긴축해야 할 근거를 제시하고 있다 발언함.
• Powell says “at some point” it will become “appropriate to slow the pace of increases.” But there is “significant uncertainty” around that end-point.
언젠가 긴축의 속도를 늦춰야 하며, 중앙은행의 두 책무가 그렇다. 하지만 시점에 대해서는 상당한 불확실성이 있다 발언함.
언젠가 긴축의 속도를 늦춰야 하며, 중앙은행의 두 책무가 그렇다. 하지만 시점에 대해서는 상당한 불확실성이 있다 발언함.
• Powell says “it’s been very important” to move “expeditiously.” It has been an “historically fast” pace, which was appropriate.
금리인상을 매우 신속하게 했던 것은 적절했다 생각한다 말함.
금리인상을 매우 신속하게 했던 것은 적절했다 생각한다 말함.
• Powell says he doesn’t think the Fed has “overtightened or moved to fast” at this point.
과도하거나 너무 빠른 긴축을 하고 있다 생각하지 않는다 발언함.
과도하거나 너무 빠른 긴축을 하고 있다 생각하지 않는다 발언함.
• Powell says there’s no one specific underlying inflation rate gauge the Fed looks at. There are a number of different measures.
인플레이션 평가는 단순한 척도가 없으며, 다양한 기준을 사용할 것이라 함.
인플레이션 평가는 단순한 척도가 없으며, 다양한 기준을 사용할 것이라 함.
• Powell says there’s no scientific way of assessing that. But, he notes, longer-term inflation expectations signal stability. Shorter-term expectations are “concerning.”
인플레이션에 대한 질문에 그는 단기에 대해서는 불확실하며, 장기적인 인플레이션과 다르게 생각함.
인플레이션에 대한 질문에 그는 단기에 대해서는 불확실하며, 장기적인 인플레이션과 다르게 생각함.