Markets expect the Fed to giveth after Wednesday’s scorching inflation print but they also expect it to quickly taketh away. At one point traders priced in a 3-in-4 chance of a full percentage point rate hike this month, with 75bps now completely beyond discussion. But investors are also pricing in more than three rate cuts next year, anticipating a rapid Fed shift to an easing stance as the US economy recoils from the impact of aggressive hikes in 2022.

함의: 투자자들은 올해와 반대로 내년 미국 중앙은행이 적어도 세번의 금리인하를 할 수 있다고 봄.

Chinese bureaucrats studying the energy outlook are proposing to end a near two-year ban on Australian coal as tensions begin to ease and on concerns supply may tighten when Western-led sanctions on Russian energy kick in. The proposal will be submitted to senior leaders, with a recommendation Beijing resume Australian imports prompted by fears European-led curbs on Russian energy will increase competition for coal from China’s main suppliers like Indonesia, according to people familiar with the plan. Officials are looking to boost fuel supplies to avoid a repeat of last year’s power disruptions -- particularly ahead of a key party congress -- said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss a private matter. 

함의: 중국은 러시아로 인한 에너지 수요 경쟁력 약화를 우려해 2년 가까이 금지했던 호주 석탄 수입을 재개하려고 함.

Chinese authorities held emergency meetings with banks after growing alarmed that an increasing number of homebuyers across the country are refusing to pay mortgages on stalled projects, according to people familiar with the matter. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development met with financial regulators and major Chinese banks this week to discuss the mortgage boycotts on concern that more buyers may follow suit, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. While there was no immediate solution, regulators asked local watchdogs and banks to report the impact, including property projects affected in their jurisdictions, as soon as possible, the people said. Some banks plan to tighten their mortgage lending requirements in high-risk cities, two of the people said.

함의: 부실 업체들로 인해 중단 된 부동산 프로젝트에 지급 거부 운동이 커지면서 당국은 파급효과를 주시하고 있음.

The EC trimmed this year's GDP outlook for the euro area to 2.6%, citing the risk of energy shortages and slowing demand due to inflation, according to draft projections. The Commission now sees GDP growth at 1.4% in 2023, down from a May projection of 2.3%. The EC raised its inflation estimate to 7.6% this year, versus the previous 6.1%. The official report is due today.

함의: 유럽위원회는 유로존의 성장률 전망은 낮추고 물가 전망은 높임.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he ordered as many as nine nuclear reactors to be restarted to help ease concerns about a possible power crunch. 
“There are concerns about a power shortage this winter,” Kishida told a news conference Thursday. “We must prevent this situation.” Japan is struggling with tight electricity supplies due to extreme weather, the retirement of older power plants, and delays to restarting nuclear reactors that were shut following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. It is also cutting its use of energy sources from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

함의: 일본은 에너지 위기에 대응하기 위해 원자력발전 재가동을 할 예정임.

US 2s10s Inversion Beyond 2000 Level a Definite Possibility. Signals from this index that inflation is becoming ingrained would add to the case for the Federal Reserve to front load rate hikes, not only raising them by 100bps later this month, but also leaving similar size rate hikes on the table at its September meeting. This should see the yield curve invert further as 2-year yields are propelled higher while longer-term yields rise less, or even fall, amid safe-haven inflows into longer-dated bonds from growing fears of a recession in coming months.

함의: 금리인상으로 인한 단기 수익률 상승, 침체 공포로 인한 장기 수익률 하락으로 2000년대 이후 보지 못한 수준의 수익률 역전도 가능할 것임.

The dollar rally has room to run and those who stand in its way risk getting bowled over by its unstoppable strength. That’s the view of hedge funds and investment banks from New York to Melbourne as a Bloomberg gauge of the world’s reserve currency threatens to break past its pandemic peak to a fresh record. Potential catalysts are numerous and lie on both sides of the dollar smile argument -- which suggests the US currency can benefit in times of strong growth and during an economic slowdown. Investors say it may only be a matter of time before anything from a hawkish Federal Reserve to a global recession turbocharges the greenback higher. “Don’t fight it, it’s not the right time to go against dollar strength yet,” said George Boubouras, head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management in Melbourne, who sees the greenback rising against everything from emerging-market currencies to the euro. “You can’t see a bottoming out of developed-market recession risks -- it’s too difficult to short the dollar anytime soon.” 

함의: 미국은 경제가 좋을 때나 침체일 때나 통화강세를 보이며 달러 스마일을 만들지만, 그 변곡점에 있어 보인다고 섣불리 대항하지 말것을 권고함.

JPMorgan temporarily suspended share buybacks and reported results that missed. Jamie Dimon said the buyback pause was needed to quickly meet higher capital requirements. Trading revenue came in below consensus and investment banking fell more than expected. Morgan Stanley also missed on investment banking revenue but posted beats on equities and FICC trading. Both stocks fell premarket.

함의: 실적시즌 1번 말과 2번 말 모두 실망.

The three-month London interbank offered rate for dollars notched its biggest increase since 2008, soaring to the highest level in more than three years as traders anticipate larger interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Libor rose for the fourth straight session, jumping almost 23 basis points to 2.7403%, in the largest one-day increase since September 2008. The spread of Libor over overnight index swaps widened to roughly 12 basis points from minus 5.7 basis points the prior session. Libor’s 2008 jump “was driven by credit-risk premium widening in interbank spreads, whereas this one is Libor playing catch up to OIS, which has jumped because of the hotter CPI print,” said Rishi Mishra, an analyst at Futures First.

함의: 리보가 2008년 이후 하루 최대폭 급등, 다만 그때와 달리 OIS와 괴리 축소 성격이 강하다고 평가함.

Stagflation alert! Thursday’s data set was decidedly unfriendly, with initial jobless claims rising to their highest level of the year (244k), though continuing claims came in lower than expected at 1.331 million. Meanwhile, headline PPI exceeded expectations at 1.1% m/m, though the core components actually rose less than forecast. That’s a fairly slender crumb of comfort, however, and the underlying picture-- one in which elevated inflation and the concomitant policy response are both working to sap real demand-- remains very much intact.

함의: 전일과 금일 지표는 여전히 낮은 성장과 높은 물가 환경을 가리키고 있음.

Bitcoin Narratives Are Getting Debunked. Yesterday we got that red-hot CPI report, and the immediate response was for Bitcoin to fall. Probably one of the biggest narratives to get blown up generally in this year has been this idea that Bitcoin would prove to be a good inflation hedge.

함의: 금보다 좋은 인플레이션 방어 자산이 물가 지표에 큰 폭 하락하며 내러티브 설득력을 잃음.

EUR/USD breaks below parity for the first time since 2002.

Buckle up, because it looks like things are about to get even bumpier.

Brent Crude Erases All Gains Since February on Recession Fears. Brent crude futures dropped below $96.84, erasing all of its gains since Russia invaded Ukraine. Crude has fallen since early June on escalating fears the US may be pushed into a recession as central banks hike rates to combat inflation. Earlier this year, Brent futures rallied over $139 in March as Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupted an already tight supply-demand balance, sending energy prices soaring. 

함의: 유가는 경기침체 우려로 그간의 상승분 모두 반납.

Trading apps such as Robinhood Markets Inc. introduced millions of investors to the stock market during the pandemic, and many of them are experiencing a bear market for the first time. I suspect they have already learned some valuable lessons, notably that picking stocks is much more difficult in a down market.

함의: 첫 하락장을 경험하는 이들은, 하락장에서 종목선정이 훨씬 어렵다는 것도 깨닫고 있을 것.