JPMorgan temporarily suspended share buybacks and reported results that missed. Jamie Dimon said the buyback pause was needed to quickly meet higher capital requirements. Trading revenue came in below consensus and investment banking fell more than expected. Morgan Stanley also missed on investment banking revenue but posted beats on equities and FICC trading. Both stocks fell premarket.

함의: 실적시즌 1번 말과 2번 말 모두 실망.

The three-month London interbank offered rate for dollars notched its biggest increase since 2008, soaring to the highest level in more than three years as traders anticipate larger interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Libor rose for the fourth straight session, jumping almost 23 basis points to 2.7403%, in the largest one-day increase since September 2008. The spread of Libor over overnight index swaps widened to roughly 12 basis points from minus 5.7 basis points the prior session. Libor’s 2008 jump “was driven by credit-risk premium widening in interbank spreads, whereas this one is Libor playing catch up to OIS, which has jumped because of the hotter CPI print,” said Rishi Mishra, an analyst at Futures First.

함의: 리보가 2008년 이후 하루 최대폭 급등, 다만 그때와 달리 OIS와 괴리 축소 성격이 강하다고 평가함.

Stagflation alert! Thursday’s data set was decidedly unfriendly, with initial jobless claims rising to their highest level of the year (244k), though continuing claims came in lower than expected at 1.331 million. Meanwhile, headline PPI exceeded expectations at 1.1% m/m, though the core components actually rose less than forecast. That’s a fairly slender crumb of comfort, however, and the underlying picture-- one in which elevated inflation and the concomitant policy response are both working to sap real demand-- remains very much intact.

함의: 전일과 금일 지표는 여전히 낮은 성장과 높은 물가 환경을 가리키고 있음.

Bitcoin Narratives Are Getting Debunked. Yesterday we got that red-hot CPI report, and the immediate response was for Bitcoin to fall. Probably one of the biggest narratives to get blown up generally in this year has been this idea that Bitcoin would prove to be a good inflation hedge.

함의: 금보다 좋은 인플레이션 방어 자산이 물가 지표에 큰 폭 하락하며 내러티브 설득력을 잃음.

EUR/USD breaks below parity for the first time since 2002.

Buckle up, because it looks like things are about to get even bumpier.

Brent Crude Erases All Gains Since February on Recession Fears. Brent crude futures dropped below $96.84, erasing all of its gains since Russia invaded Ukraine. Crude has fallen since early June on escalating fears the US may be pushed into a recession as central banks hike rates to combat inflation. Earlier this year, Brent futures rallied over $139 in March as Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupted an already tight supply-demand balance, sending energy prices soaring. 

함의: 유가는 경기침체 우려로 그간의 상승분 모두 반납.

Trading apps such as Robinhood Markets Inc. introduced millions of investors to the stock market during the pandemic, and many of them are experiencing a bear market for the first time. I suspect they have already learned some valuable lessons, notably that picking stocks is much more difficult in a down market.

함의: 첫 하락장을 경험하는 이들은, 하락장에서 종목선정이 훨씬 어렵다는 것도 깨닫고 있을 것.

"In solitude the mind gains strength and learns to lean upon itself."

- Laurence Sterne

Citi economists joined the growing crowd that thinks a full percentage point Fed hike in July is likely, but the central bank's Governor Christopher Waller declined to join the club. He said he supports a 75-bp increase this month after seeing the latest CPI report, but could vote for more aggressive action if coming retail sales and housing data point to further inflation risks. St. Louis President James Bullard told the Nikkei that he favors sticking with 75 bps this meeting.

함의: 월가 전문가들이 이번 달 중앙은행의 100bp 인상 예측에 동참하는 반면, 두 인사는 여전히 75bp에 무게를 둔다는 답변을 함.

OpenSea, the world’s largest marketplace for nonfungible tokens, is cutting about 20% of its staff, the latest in a series of layoffs that’s rocked the crypto industry as digital-asset prices continue to plummet. Chief Executive Devin Finzer announced the job cuts in a tweet on Thursday, and warned of a prolonged downturn amid the collapse in crypto prices and broader economic instability. OpenSea has 769 employees, according to LinkedIn. The cuts would eliminate more than 150 jobs. The company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

함의: NFT 최대 거래 업체는 암호화폐 시장 붕괴와 불확실한 경제환경을 탓으로 직원의 20%를 해고함.

Are We in a Recession Now? Just Look at Discount Retailers. The biggest debate in financial markets is whether the US economy is already in recession, and that’s because the data is decidedly mixed. Inflation is raging, but the jobs market is red hot. Perhaps the answer lies with discount retailers. Even though the benchmark S&P 500 Index is fallen into a broad bear market by tumbling 20.2% this year through Wednesday, Dollar General Corp. has risen 4.58%, Dollar Tree Inc. has surged 18.1% and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. has soared 33.2%. This is a stunning level of outperformance, and reflects the theory that as inflation accelerates, consumers will be forced to trade down to cheaper and lower-quality goods sold by discount retailers. 

함의: 경기침체 임박에 대한 좋은 신호는 할인 업체의 상대성과 우위에서 확인되며, 인플레이션이 가속화 될 때 소비자가 더 싸고 더 낮은 질의 재화를 소비함을 알 수 있음.

SK Hynix Inc. is considering cutting its 2023 capital expenditure by about a quarter to 16 trillion won ($12.2 billion) in response to slower electronics demand than anticipated, people familiar with the matter said. The world’s second largest memory maker is sticking largely with plans to spend about 21 trillion won this year building up DRAM and NAND capacity, the people said. But rising uncertainty over dwindling demand for the chips that go into everything from smartphones to servers has forced a rethink of expansions next year, they said, asking not to be identified talking about undisclosed plans.

함의: 스마트폰에서 서버에 이르기까지 부진한 수요 예상에 SK하이닉스는 내년 설비투자의 25%를 축소할 것으로 전해짐.

Greenback strength is “largely a flight to safety,” Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank, said on Bloomberg TV. “The problem is until we get to see some light at the end of the tunnel with respect to either inflation coming off or oil prices coming off because of supply creation rather than demand destruction, it’s hard to call a top to it.” Investors are awaiting economic data from China to assess how its economy is faring amid challenges from a property sector slowdown and Covid lockdowns.

함의: 안전자산선호로 인한 달러 강세가 증시를 압박하는 가운데 금일 중국 데이터에 눈이 쏠리고 있음.

China Second-Quarter GDP Grows 0.4%, Missing Estimates.

China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since the initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, a reflection of the damage the nation’s Covid Zero approach has had on growth and the challenge Beijing faces in meeting its full-year target. Gross domestic product increased 0.4% from a year earlier, the worst performance since the first quarter of 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Growth was far weaker than the 1.2% gain in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

함의: 우한에서 바이러스 발현 이후 다시금 최악의 성장률 기록함.