Bottom-line: 옵션 시장과 여러 기술적 지표에 기반하면 달러 약세는 일단락 됐을 가능성이 높음. 물가와 고용 지표, 그리고 통화정책회의를 포함하는 1개월 이내 만기의 달러 옵션은 상방으로 포지션이 구축되고 있음. 중앙은행이 금리인상 폭이 아니라 최종금리의 중요성을 더욱 강조하면서 달러 손실에 대한 경계심이 무뎌지고 있음. 기술적으로 볼 때 엘리엇파동 ABC 조정이 마무리 되었으며, 피보나치 되돌림 38.2%를 저점으로 지지하며 반등한 것이 달러 약세의 마무리란 기대에 힘을 주고 있음.
The correction in the dollar might be over, according to the latest repricing in the options space and some technical indicators. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback retreated by 7% from its cycle highs back in September, mainly driven by position re-balancing over a potential Fed pivot. Options-wise, traders are back into adding topside structures over the 1-month tenor that captures the release of the next employment and inflation reports out of the US, as well as the Fed’s policy meeting in December. So it could be that options market makers are now less convinced that the dollar is in for more losses, especially as FOMC officials keep reminding us that the terminal rate matters more than the size of the next hike. On the technical front, the extent of the recent drop in the spot market now satisfies a so-called ABC correction of a full Elliott Wave cycle that started a year ago. Moreover, the dollar’s rebound Tuesday from intraday lows came after testing a pivotal support level, namely the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally since early 2021. Given another positive signal emerged, a DeMark Buy Setup on the daily chart, the greenback’s technical outlook has turned bullish, at least in the short term. That Fibonacci support, close to the Tuesday lows, has now game-changing potential, either way.
The correction in the dollar might be over, according to the latest repricing in the options space and some technical indicators. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback retreated by 7% from its cycle highs back in September, mainly driven by position re-balancing over a potential Fed pivot. Options-wise, traders are back into adding topside structures over the 1-month tenor that captures the release of the next employment and inflation reports out of the US, as well as the Fed’s policy meeting in December. So it could be that options market makers are now less convinced that the dollar is in for more losses, especially as FOMC officials keep reminding us that the terminal rate matters more than the size of the next hike. On the technical front, the extent of the recent drop in the spot market now satisfies a so-called ABC correction of a full Elliott Wave cycle that started a year ago. Moreover, the dollar’s rebound Tuesday from intraday lows came after testing a pivotal support level, namely the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally since early 2021. Given another positive signal emerged, a DeMark Buy Setup on the daily chart, the greenback’s technical outlook has turned bullish, at least in the short term. That Fibonacci support, close to the Tuesday lows, has now game-changing potential, either way.
Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행도 75bp의 금리인상보다 50bp 금리인상으로 그 강도를 조절할 것으로 보임. 이런 논의의 주 된 이유는 경기침체 위험 증가, 소비자 물가 압력 완화 가능성, 경제를 지나치게 자극치 않는 2%대의 중립금리 도달에 따름. 이와 함께 대차대조표 축소 논의도 시작 될 것으로 보임.
European Central Bank policy makers may slow down interest-rate hiking with only a 50 basis-point increase next month, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Initial discussions suggest a lack of momentum for another 75 basis-point move at present, the people said, declining to be identified because Governing Council deliberations are private. Barring another surprise surge in inflation, the consensus might well favor the less aggressive step, they said. Among reasons cited are mounting recession risks, the possibility that consumer-price pressures will weaken, and the prospect that a half-point move in the deposit rate to 2% will reach close to a so-called neutral level that no longer stimulates the economy. The need to bargain over a start to balance-sheet reduction was also cited. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
European Central Bank policy makers may slow down interest-rate hiking with only a 50 basis-point increase next month, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Initial discussions suggest a lack of momentum for another 75 basis-point move at present, the people said, declining to be identified because Governing Council deliberations are private. Barring another surprise surge in inflation, the consensus might well favor the less aggressive step, they said. Among reasons cited are mounting recession risks, the possibility that consumer-price pressures will weaken, and the prospect that a half-point move in the deposit rate to 2% will reach close to a so-called neutral level that no longer stimulates the economy. The need to bargain over a start to balance-sheet reduction was also cited. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.
Bottom-line: 제임스 블라드는 테일러 준칙을 활용한 차트를 제시하며 중앙은행이 물가를 통제하기 위한 최종 정책금리는 5.0%~7.0% 사이가 되어야 한다고 주장함. 관대한 조건의 가정에서 보더라도 현재 금리가 충분히 제한적 영역에 있다 볼 수 없고, 해당 영역까지 끌어올리기 위한 추가 금리인상의 필요성을 주장했음. 이는 중앙은행이 설정 한 3.75%~4.0% 금리 수준보다 훨씬 높으며 최근의 중앙은행 인사들의 발언 중 가장 강경한 태도임.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard urged policymakers to raise interest rates further, saying the level will need to be higher to meet the central bank’s goal to be “sufficiently restrictive” to bring down inflation. “Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive,” Bullard said Thursday in Louisville, Kentucky at an event hosted by Greater Louisville Inc. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”. Bullard presented charts showing a sufficiently restrictive rate might be between about 5% and 7%, though he didn’t spell out in his prepared remarks what rate level he favored. The calculation used different versions of a Taylor Rule, a popular monetary policy guideline developed by Stanford University’s John Taylor. That compares with the current 3.75% to 4% target level of the Fed’s benchmark rate, which it reached earlier this month. The St. Louis Fed leader, who has been among the more hawkish of policy makers this year, was the latest central banker to call for additional action. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Nov. 2 for the fourth straight time as part of its most aggressive tightening since the 1980s to curb an inflation rate at a four-decade high. “Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” Bullard said.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard urged policymakers to raise interest rates further, saying the level will need to be higher to meet the central bank’s goal to be “sufficiently restrictive” to bring down inflation. “Even under these generous assumptions, the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive,” Bullard said Thursday in Louisville, Kentucky at an event hosted by Greater Louisville Inc. “To attain a sufficiently restrictive level, the policy rate will need to be increased further.”. Bullard presented charts showing a sufficiently restrictive rate might be between about 5% and 7%, though he didn’t spell out in his prepared remarks what rate level he favored. The calculation used different versions of a Taylor Rule, a popular monetary policy guideline developed by Stanford University’s John Taylor. That compares with the current 3.75% to 4% target level of the Fed’s benchmark rate, which it reached earlier this month. The St. Louis Fed leader, who has been among the more hawkish of policy makers this year, was the latest central banker to call for additional action. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Nov. 2 for the fourth straight time as part of its most aggressive tightening since the 1980s to curb an inflation rate at a four-decade high. “Thus far, the change in the monetary-policy stance appears to have had only limited effects on observed inflation, but market pricing suggests disinflation is expected in 2023,” Bullard said.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 내년 아시아 전망을 통해 현재까지 초과수익을 거둔 지역에 대해 투자의견 하향 조정을 하고, 부진한 성과를 보였던 중국과 한국에 대한 투자의견을 상향 제시함. 한국의 경우 종전 시장중립에서 비중확대로 상향했음. 이 배경에는 중국이 바이러스 억제 정책을 완화하고, 세계경제 여건이 회복되는데 대한 기대에 있음.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. turned more bullish on stocks tied to China and South Korea, saying this year’s Asian laggards will outperform in 2023 as the mainland reopens after Covid-19 restrictions and the global backdrop improves. “Regional equity leadership may shift north after Asean and India strength in 2022 as China markets rebound and Korea anticipates recovery,” strategists including Timothy Moe wrote in a note. A challenging global economic backdrop for interest rates, growth and the dollar may also improve in the second quarter, they added. The US investment bank upgraded Hong Kong to marketweight from underweight and raised South Korea to overweight from marketweight in its Asia allocation. It remained overweight on the MSCI China Index. Moe and his team expect a 16% return for the MSCI China benchmark and the CSI 300 Index next year. Separately, they downgraded Indonesia to marketweight from overweight, and Thailand and Malaysia to underweight. Goldman slashed the 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index to 515 from 585 on Sept. 30. The gauge has since risen by about 11%, taking it to 4.3% short of the expected level as of yesterday’s close.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. turned more bullish on stocks tied to China and South Korea, saying this year’s Asian laggards will outperform in 2023 as the mainland reopens after Covid-19 restrictions and the global backdrop improves. “Regional equity leadership may shift north after Asean and India strength in 2022 as China markets rebound and Korea anticipates recovery,” strategists including Timothy Moe wrote in a note. A challenging global economic backdrop for interest rates, growth and the dollar may also improve in the second quarter, they added. The US investment bank upgraded Hong Kong to marketweight from underweight and raised South Korea to overweight from marketweight in its Asia allocation. It remained overweight on the MSCI China Index. Moe and his team expect a 16% return for the MSCI China benchmark and the CSI 300 Index next year. Separately, they downgraded Indonesia to marketweight from overweight, and Thailand and Malaysia to underweight. Goldman slashed the 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index to 515 from 585 on Sept. 30. The gauge has since risen by about 11%, taking it to 4.3% short of the expected level as of yesterday’s close.
Bottom-line: 아시아 투자등급의 달러 표시 회사채의 월간 수익률이 2009년 집계 이후 최고치를 기록할 것으로 보임. 미국의 인플레이션 둔화 징조와 중국과 미국 간 긴장 완화, 그리고 중국의 바이러스 억제 정책 완화 및 부동산 지원책들이 쏟아지며 투자자들이 보다 긍정적인 기대를 하도록 만들었음. 특히 중국 부동산 회사채의 경우 가격 기준 두 배에서 70%에 이르기까지 월 간 큰 폭의 상승을 보였음. 일본 제외 아시아 평균으로는 월간 3%의 수익을 11월에 거두고 있음.
Asian investment-grade dollar corporate bonds look poised to deliver their best monthly returns in 13 years, buoyed by hopes of softening inflation and China’s stronger efforts to rescue an ailing property sector. Such notes in Asia ex-Japan have returned 3% so far in November, which would mark the biggest gain since 2009 when Bloomberg started compiling a relevant index. Chinese developers have been among the best performers after Beijing issued sweeping measures to ease the sector’s cash crunch. The prices of two notes from Longfor Group Holdings Ltd., due in 2028 and 2032 respectively, have both more than doubled this month. China Vanke Co.’s bond due 2027 and Beijing Capital Land Ltd.’s maturing in 2025 also have risen about 70% and 20%, respectively. Investor appetite in global risk assets has improved amid signs of cooling US inflation and reduced tensions between the world’s top two economies. Beijing’s latest steps to ease strict Covid controls and prop up a depressed housing market also have fueled optimism about the country’s growth outlook.
Asian investment-grade dollar corporate bonds look poised to deliver their best monthly returns in 13 years, buoyed by hopes of softening inflation and China’s stronger efforts to rescue an ailing property sector. Such notes in Asia ex-Japan have returned 3% so far in November, which would mark the biggest gain since 2009 when Bloomberg started compiling a relevant index. Chinese developers have been among the best performers after Beijing issued sweeping measures to ease the sector’s cash crunch. The prices of two notes from Longfor Group Holdings Ltd., due in 2028 and 2032 respectively, have both more than doubled this month. China Vanke Co.’s bond due 2027 and Beijing Capital Land Ltd.’s maturing in 2025 also have risen about 70% and 20%, respectively. Investor appetite in global risk assets has improved amid signs of cooling US inflation and reduced tensions between the world’s top two economies. Beijing’s latest steps to ease strict Covid controls and prop up a depressed housing market also have fueled optimism about the country’s growth outlook.
Bottom-line: 지난 한 주간 주식형 펀드로 229억 달러가 유입되며 8개월만에 가장 가파른 증가를 보였음. 이는 예상보다 낮은 인플레이션에 중앙은행의 금리인상 행보가 더뎌질 것이란 기대에 불이 붙었기 때문임. 그러나 인플레이션 감소 신호에 대한 확고한 중앙은행의 발언에 시장 등락은 다소 진정 됨. 뱅크 오브 아메리카는 약세장의 랠리가 한 차례 지났다고 판단함. 내년 상반기가 지나기 전에 통화정책의 선회를 기대하지 말라며, 또한 인플레이션에 따른 기업 이익 감소는 역설적이게도 이제서야 시작 될 것이라 주장하며 주식에서는 아직 손실의 가능성이 남았다고 판단함. 해당 전략팀은 내년 상반기까지는 채권, 하반기에서야 주식에 대한 투자 매력도가 발생한다고 주장하고 있음.
Investors flocked back into equities at the fastest pace in about eight months on signs of cooling inflation, but Bank of America Corp. strategists warn the rally will fizzle out due to earnings risks and staunchly hawkish central banks. Global stock funds saw inflows of $22.9 billion in the week through Nov. 16, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. A slower-than-expected US inflation report last week initially fueled bets that the Federal Reserve could signal a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. But stock market moves have since been subdued as Fed officials indicated more scope to raise rates before they see a meaningful slowdown in consumer prices. Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said they predict a policy pivot only in June or July and that expecting any easing before then would be a “big mistake.”. In the absence of an earlier change to the Fed’s approach, “a fair chunk of the bear market rally is behind us,” they wrote in a Nov. 17 note. The outlook is dimmer again for next year as market strategists including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley warn of weaker corporate earnings fueling more stock losses before a rebound in the second half. Bank of America’s team also said profits will “ironically” remain under pressure even as inflation recedes. They recommend holding bonds in the first half of 2023, with stocks becoming more attractive in the last six months of the year.
Investors flocked back into equities at the fastest pace in about eight months on signs of cooling inflation, but Bank of America Corp. strategists warn the rally will fizzle out due to earnings risks and staunchly hawkish central banks. Global stock funds saw inflows of $22.9 billion in the week through Nov. 16, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. A slower-than-expected US inflation report last week initially fueled bets that the Federal Reserve could signal a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. But stock market moves have since been subdued as Fed officials indicated more scope to raise rates before they see a meaningful slowdown in consumer prices. Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said they predict a policy pivot only in June or July and that expecting any easing before then would be a “big mistake.”. In the absence of an earlier change to the Fed’s approach, “a fair chunk of the bear market rally is behind us,” they wrote in a Nov. 17 note. The outlook is dimmer again for next year as market strategists including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley warn of weaker corporate earnings fueling more stock losses before a rebound in the second half. Bank of America’s team also said profits will “ironically” remain under pressure even as inflation recedes. They recommend holding bonds in the first half of 2023, with stocks becoming more attractive in the last six months of the year.
2023년 전망이 속속 발간되면서 해외 투자은행들의 미국 중앙은행 최종 정책금리, 그리고 2023년 언제 어느 정도 다시 금리인하를 할 것인지에 대한 내용을 정리해보겠습니다. 곧 보내드리는 메시지는 알람이 꺼진 상태로 보내겠습니다.
1. 미국 중앙은행에 대해 투자은행들이 동의하는 부분은 내년에도 금리인상이 있을 수 있다는 것, 단 하나에 불과함. 나머지 더욱 중요한 i) 그렇다면 최종 종착지가 될 정책금리 수준, ii) 다시 금리인하를 하는 시점과 그 폭에 대해서는 합의가 모아지고 있지 않음. 물론, 선물시장에 형성 된 곡선은 내년 3월까지 5%에 달하는 정책금리를 형성하고, 내년 연말까지 0.5%의 금리인하를 할 것으로 책정하고 있음.
2. 투자은행들의 세부 전망치를 살펴보면, i) UBS, 도이치뱅크는 내년에 각각 175bp, 100bp의 금리인하를 예상하고 있음. ii) 노무라의 경우 최종 정책금리는 5%가 아니라 5.75%까지 오를 것으로 보고 있으며, 노무라와 바클레이즈는 75bp의 금리인하를 예상함. iii) 비교적 낮은 최종 정책금리인 4.75%를 전망하는 모건스탠리는 내년 연말에 25bp 한차례 금리인하를 예상하며, iv) 골드만삭스와 웰스파고는 5.25%의 최종금리 도달 이후 한 해 내도록 이 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있음. v) 씨티의 경우 5.5%의 최종금리를 형성한 뒤 이를 연간 내도록 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있음.
3. 이들이 이렇게 최종 정책금리, 그리고 다시 금리인하를 하지 않거나 하더라도 그 폭이 다른 근거를 살펴보면, i) 노무라의 경우 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 중앙은행이 더욱 일을 해야 할 것으로 보면서 가장 높은 5.75%의 정책금리를 제시했고, ii) UBS의 경우 실업률이 무려 5%까지 도달하는 경착륙을 가정하면서 175bp의 가장 큰 폭의 금리인하를 제시했음.
4. 이어서 다른 투자은행도 살펴보면, i) 도이치뱅크 또한 실업률이 5.5%, 인플레이션은 3%를 조금 초과하는 수준에서 경기침체를 경험할 것으로 전망하며, ii) 골드만삭스나 웰스파고의 경우 너무 이른 금리인하는 인플레이션이 통제될 수 있도록 잠재성장률 이하에 성장을 있도록 하는 압력을 해제해버릴 수 있다는 의견임. 이들은 또한 경기침체를 가까스로 피할 수 있을 것으로 보면서 경기침체를 겪을 것이란 다른 투자은행과 궤를 달리했음.
5. 끝으로 모건스탠리의 경우 가장 낮은 최종 정책금리를 제시했지만, 또한 금리인하의 시점을 내년 12월 한 차례, 단 25bp로 보기도 했음. 이들의 경우 경기침체는 가까스로 피하겠으나 여전히 높은 인플레이션이 상당기간 유지될 것이기 때문이라 밝힘.
6. 그렇다면 중앙은행이 현재의 통화정책 방향을 바꾸는데 무엇을 보아야 할까, 이 질문에 대해 파이퍼 샌들러의 애널리스트는 다음 5개 조건을 제시했는데, i) 핵심 물가가 2%를 향하고 있다는 확신, ii) 물가 기대 하락, iii) 더 긴축적인 금융시장 환경(Financial Condition Index), iv) 노동시장의 상당한 침체, v) 통화정책이 충분한 효과를 낼 수 있는 더 긴 시간(최소 2023년 3월 이후)임.
Bottom-line: 파산절차에 들어 간 FTX에 대한 법원 서류에 따르면, 최소 2,100만 달러 이상, 최고 2억 2,600만 달러의 빚을 50명의 채권자들에게 지고 있으며, 이 50명의 무담보 채무 총액은 31억 달러에 달함. 채권자들은 FTX에 고객으로 등록되어 있으며, 파산절차가 진행됨에 따라 FTX로부터 돈을 회수할 수 있는 방법을 찾는데 무게를 둘 것임. 사건이 진행되면 백만명 이상의 채권자들이 연관 될 수 있다고 함.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each. FTX-linked entities owe their single biggest unsecured creditor more than $226 million, according to a redacted list of top 50 creditors filed late Saturday. All of them were listed as customers and ten have claims of more than $100 million each, the filings show. The creditors, whose names and locations weren’t disclosed, are among the vast array of people and institutions caught up in FTX’s insolvency. The 50 largest claims are all from customers owed $21 million or more. In the US, bankrupt companies are required to disclose information about their debts as part of insolvency proceedings. Creditors will get to weigh in on the best way for FTX to repay its debts as the bankruptcy unfolds. FTX said it has assets and liabilities of at least $10 billion each in preliminary court papers. The case may involve more than one million creditors, according to lawyers for FTX. The case is FTX Trading Ltd., 22-11068, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each. FTX-linked entities owe their single biggest unsecured creditor more than $226 million, according to a redacted list of top 50 creditors filed late Saturday. All of them were listed as customers and ten have claims of more than $100 million each, the filings show. The creditors, whose names and locations weren’t disclosed, are among the vast array of people and institutions caught up in FTX’s insolvency. The 50 largest claims are all from customers owed $21 million or more. In the US, bankrupt companies are required to disclose information about their debts as part of insolvency proceedings. Creditors will get to weigh in on the best way for FTX to repay its debts as the bankruptcy unfolds. FTX said it has assets and liabilities of at least $10 billion each in preliminary court papers. The case may involve more than one million creditors, according to lawyers for FTX. The case is FTX Trading Ltd., 22-11068, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
Bottom-line: 바이러스 억제 정책을 완화할 것이란 추측과 달리 북경 인근에 위치 한 도시의 교육시설을 봉쇄하고 거주자들에게 5일 간 자택에 머무르란 방침이 시작 됨. 인구 1,100만의 이 도시는 북경서 300km 떨어져 있으며, 이 지역 6개 구역에 대규모 바이러스 검사 및 이동 제한이 이뤄지고 대면 교육이 중단 됨.
A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for China dispensing with all virus restrictions has suspended schools, locked down universities and asked residents to stay at home for five days, a potential sign officials are reverting to tighter Covid Zero curbs as cases multiply. Shijiazhuang -- a city of some 11 million people about 186 miles (300 kilometers) from the capital -- has forbidden residents in areas deemed high risk from leaving their homes, with everyone else advised to stay at home “in principle,” according to the statement carried by official Shijiazhuang Daily. A mass Covid testing exercise will be undertaken in six major districts, and universities will be put into so-called closed loops, where students are unable to leave campuses. All in-person classes at primary and middle schools have been halted.
A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for China dispensing with all virus restrictions has suspended schools, locked down universities and asked residents to stay at home for five days, a potential sign officials are reverting to tighter Covid Zero curbs as cases multiply. Shijiazhuang -- a city of some 11 million people about 186 miles (300 kilometers) from the capital -- has forbidden residents in areas deemed high risk from leaving their homes, with everyone else advised to stay at home “in principle,” according to the statement carried by official Shijiazhuang Daily. A mass Covid testing exercise will be undertaken in six major districts, and universities will be put into so-called closed loops, where students are unable to leave campuses. All in-person classes at primary and middle schools have been halted.