Bottom-line: 지난 한 주간 주식형 펀드로 229억 달러가 유입되며 8개월만에 가장 가파른 증가를 보였음. 이는 예상보다 낮은 인플레이션에 중앙은행의 금리인상 행보가 더뎌질 것이란 기대에 불이 붙었기 때문임. 그러나 인플레이션 감소 신호에 대한 확고한 중앙은행의 발언에 시장 등락은 다소 진정 됨. 뱅크 오브 아메리카는 약세장의 랠리가 한 차례 지났다고 판단함. 내년 상반기가 지나기 전에 통화정책의 선회를 기대하지 말라며, 또한 인플레이션에 따른 기업 이익 감소는 역설적이게도 이제서야 시작 될 것이라 주장하며 주식에서는 아직 손실의 가능성이 남았다고 판단함. 해당 전략팀은 내년 상반기까지는 채권, 하반기에서야 주식에 대한 투자 매력도가 발생한다고 주장하고 있음.
Investors flocked back into equities at the fastest pace in about eight months on signs of cooling inflation, but Bank of America Corp. strategists warn the rally will fizzle out due to earnings risks and staunchly hawkish central banks. Global stock funds saw inflows of $22.9 billion in the week through Nov. 16, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. A slower-than-expected US inflation report last week initially fueled bets that the Federal Reserve could signal a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. But stock market moves have since been subdued as Fed officials indicated more scope to raise rates before they see a meaningful slowdown in consumer prices. Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said they predict a policy pivot only in June or July and that expecting any easing before then would be a “big mistake.”. In the absence of an earlier change to the Fed’s approach, “a fair chunk of the bear market rally is behind us,” they wrote in a Nov. 17 note. The outlook is dimmer again for next year as market strategists including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley warn of weaker corporate earnings fueling more stock losses before a rebound in the second half. Bank of America’s team also said profits will “ironically” remain under pressure even as inflation recedes. They recommend holding bonds in the first half of 2023, with stocks becoming more attractive in the last six months of the year.
Investors flocked back into equities at the fastest pace in about eight months on signs of cooling inflation, but Bank of America Corp. strategists warn the rally will fizzle out due to earnings risks and staunchly hawkish central banks. Global stock funds saw inflows of $22.9 billion in the week through Nov. 16, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. A slower-than-expected US inflation report last week initially fueled bets that the Federal Reserve could signal a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. But stock market moves have since been subdued as Fed officials indicated more scope to raise rates before they see a meaningful slowdown in consumer prices. Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said they predict a policy pivot only in June or July and that expecting any easing before then would be a “big mistake.”. In the absence of an earlier change to the Fed’s approach, “a fair chunk of the bear market rally is behind us,” they wrote in a Nov. 17 note. The outlook is dimmer again for next year as market strategists including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley warn of weaker corporate earnings fueling more stock losses before a rebound in the second half. Bank of America’s team also said profits will “ironically” remain under pressure even as inflation recedes. They recommend holding bonds in the first half of 2023, with stocks becoming more attractive in the last six months of the year.
2023년 전망이 속속 발간되면서 해외 투자은행들의 미국 중앙은행 최종 정책금리, 그리고 2023년 언제 어느 정도 다시 금리인하를 할 것인지에 대한 내용을 정리해보겠습니다. 곧 보내드리는 메시지는 알람이 꺼진 상태로 보내겠습니다.
1. 미국 중앙은행에 대해 투자은행들이 동의하는 부분은 내년에도 금리인상이 있을 수 있다는 것, 단 하나에 불과함. 나머지 더욱 중요한 i) 그렇다면 최종 종착지가 될 정책금리 수준, ii) 다시 금리인하를 하는 시점과 그 폭에 대해서는 합의가 모아지고 있지 않음. 물론, 선물시장에 형성 된 곡선은 내년 3월까지 5%에 달하는 정책금리를 형성하고, 내년 연말까지 0.5%의 금리인하를 할 것으로 책정하고 있음.
2. 투자은행들의 세부 전망치를 살펴보면, i) UBS, 도이치뱅크는 내년에 각각 175bp, 100bp의 금리인하를 예상하고 있음. ii) 노무라의 경우 최종 정책금리는 5%가 아니라 5.75%까지 오를 것으로 보고 있으며, 노무라와 바클레이즈는 75bp의 금리인하를 예상함. iii) 비교적 낮은 최종 정책금리인 4.75%를 전망하는 모건스탠리는 내년 연말에 25bp 한차례 금리인하를 예상하며, iv) 골드만삭스와 웰스파고는 5.25%의 최종금리 도달 이후 한 해 내도록 이 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있음. v) 씨티의 경우 5.5%의 최종금리를 형성한 뒤 이를 연간 내도록 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있음.
3. 이들이 이렇게 최종 정책금리, 그리고 다시 금리인하를 하지 않거나 하더라도 그 폭이 다른 근거를 살펴보면, i) 노무라의 경우 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 중앙은행이 더욱 일을 해야 할 것으로 보면서 가장 높은 5.75%의 정책금리를 제시했고, ii) UBS의 경우 실업률이 무려 5%까지 도달하는 경착륙을 가정하면서 175bp의 가장 큰 폭의 금리인하를 제시했음.
4. 이어서 다른 투자은행도 살펴보면, i) 도이치뱅크 또한 실업률이 5.5%, 인플레이션은 3%를 조금 초과하는 수준에서 경기침체를 경험할 것으로 전망하며, ii) 골드만삭스나 웰스파고의 경우 너무 이른 금리인하는 인플레이션이 통제될 수 있도록 잠재성장률 이하에 성장을 있도록 하는 압력을 해제해버릴 수 있다는 의견임. 이들은 또한 경기침체를 가까스로 피할 수 있을 것으로 보면서 경기침체를 겪을 것이란 다른 투자은행과 궤를 달리했음.
5. 끝으로 모건스탠리의 경우 가장 낮은 최종 정책금리를 제시했지만, 또한 금리인하의 시점을 내년 12월 한 차례, 단 25bp로 보기도 했음. 이들의 경우 경기침체는 가까스로 피하겠으나 여전히 높은 인플레이션이 상당기간 유지될 것이기 때문이라 밝힘.
6. 그렇다면 중앙은행이 현재의 통화정책 방향을 바꾸는데 무엇을 보아야 할까, 이 질문에 대해 파이퍼 샌들러의 애널리스트는 다음 5개 조건을 제시했는데, i) 핵심 물가가 2%를 향하고 있다는 확신, ii) 물가 기대 하락, iii) 더 긴축적인 금융시장 환경(Financial Condition Index), iv) 노동시장의 상당한 침체, v) 통화정책이 충분한 효과를 낼 수 있는 더 긴 시간(최소 2023년 3월 이후)임.
Bottom-line: 파산절차에 들어 간 FTX에 대한 법원 서류에 따르면, 최소 2,100만 달러 이상, 최고 2억 2,600만 달러의 빚을 50명의 채권자들에게 지고 있으며, 이 50명의 무담보 채무 총액은 31억 달러에 달함. 채권자들은 FTX에 고객으로 등록되어 있으며, 파산절차가 진행됨에 따라 FTX로부터 돈을 회수할 수 있는 방법을 찾는데 무게를 둘 것임. 사건이 진행되면 백만명 이상의 채권자들이 연관 될 수 있다고 함.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each. FTX-linked entities owe their single biggest unsecured creditor more than $226 million, according to a redacted list of top 50 creditors filed late Saturday. All of them were listed as customers and ten have claims of more than $100 million each, the filings show. The creditors, whose names and locations weren’t disclosed, are among the vast array of people and institutions caught up in FTX’s insolvency. The 50 largest claims are all from customers owed $21 million or more. In the US, bankrupt companies are required to disclose information about their debts as part of insolvency proceedings. Creditors will get to weigh in on the best way for FTX to repay its debts as the bankruptcy unfolds. FTX said it has assets and liabilities of at least $10 billion each in preliminary court papers. The case may involve more than one million creditors, according to lawyers for FTX. The case is FTX Trading Ltd., 22-11068, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each. FTX-linked entities owe their single biggest unsecured creditor more than $226 million, according to a redacted list of top 50 creditors filed late Saturday. All of them were listed as customers and ten have claims of more than $100 million each, the filings show. The creditors, whose names and locations weren’t disclosed, are among the vast array of people and institutions caught up in FTX’s insolvency. The 50 largest claims are all from customers owed $21 million or more. In the US, bankrupt companies are required to disclose information about their debts as part of insolvency proceedings. Creditors will get to weigh in on the best way for FTX to repay its debts as the bankruptcy unfolds. FTX said it has assets and liabilities of at least $10 billion each in preliminary court papers. The case may involve more than one million creditors, according to lawyers for FTX. The case is FTX Trading Ltd., 22-11068, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
Bottom-line: 바이러스 억제 정책을 완화할 것이란 추측과 달리 북경 인근에 위치 한 도시의 교육시설을 봉쇄하고 거주자들에게 5일 간 자택에 머무르란 방침이 시작 됨. 인구 1,100만의 이 도시는 북경서 300km 떨어져 있으며, 이 지역 6개 구역에 대규모 바이러스 검사 및 이동 제한이 이뤄지고 대면 교육이 중단 됨.
A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for China dispensing with all virus restrictions has suspended schools, locked down universities and asked residents to stay at home for five days, a potential sign officials are reverting to tighter Covid Zero curbs as cases multiply. Shijiazhuang -- a city of some 11 million people about 186 miles (300 kilometers) from the capital -- has forbidden residents in areas deemed high risk from leaving their homes, with everyone else advised to stay at home “in principle,” according to the statement carried by official Shijiazhuang Daily. A mass Covid testing exercise will be undertaken in six major districts, and universities will be put into so-called closed loops, where students are unable to leave campuses. All in-person classes at primary and middle schools have been halted.
A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for China dispensing with all virus restrictions has suspended schools, locked down universities and asked residents to stay at home for five days, a potential sign officials are reverting to tighter Covid Zero curbs as cases multiply. Shijiazhuang -- a city of some 11 million people about 186 miles (300 kilometers) from the capital -- has forbidden residents in areas deemed high risk from leaving their homes, with everyone else advised to stay at home “in principle,” according to the statement carried by official Shijiazhuang Daily. A mass Covid testing exercise will be undertaken in six major districts, and universities will be put into so-called closed loops, where students are unable to leave campuses. All in-person classes at primary and middle schools have been halted.
Bottom-line: 금에 대한 선물 포지션 자료에 따르면 주간 순매수 증가량이 2020년 2월 이후 최고치를 기록함. 순매수 증가의 원인을 나눠보면 신규 매수자보다 기존 매도자들의 포지션 정리가 큰 영향을 미침. 보통 금은 금리가 하락하거나 경기침체가 올 것으로 예상 될 때 매수세가 강해지는데, 매도자들의 포지션은 그동안 중앙은행의 금리인상에 따른 포지션이었음. 그러므로 최근 금의 순매수 증가는 경기침체 우려에 따른 안전자산 선호라기 보다는, 중앙은행의 정책 선회 기대감이 크다고 해석할 수 있음.
The latest CFTC data show a sharp increase in net long positions in gold, the biggest gain since February 2020. The safe haven asset typically sees a bid when markets are anticipating a fall in interest rates or an economic slowdown. A closer look at the CFTC data show that the aggressive rise in net longs are mostly coming from short covering rather than traders adding on long positions. This suggests markets are mostly pricing for a Fed pivot to happen sooner, rather than from heightened recession fear. The yellow metal might continue to see more short covering as markets anticipate less hawkish global central banks going forward.
The latest CFTC data show a sharp increase in net long positions in gold, the biggest gain since February 2020. The safe haven asset typically sees a bid when markets are anticipating a fall in interest rates or an economic slowdown. A closer look at the CFTC data show that the aggressive rise in net longs are mostly coming from short covering rather than traders adding on long positions. This suggests markets are mostly pricing for a Fed pivot to happen sooner, rather than from heightened recession fear. The yellow metal might continue to see more short covering as markets anticipate less hawkish global central banks going forward.
Bottom-line: 원유 선물 곡선이 다시 콘탱고 상태로 접어들며 수요 둔화에 따른 과잉공급 우려를 반영함. 중국이 또 다시 봉쇄 움직임을 보이면서, 중국의 수요가 추가적인 원유 가격 상승을 이끌 수 있단 확실한 신호를 얻기 전엔 투자자들은 매우 조심스러운 입장을 지키려고 함. 원유 선물의 순매수 포지션 또한 3주래 최저치를 기록함.
Crude oil has retreated back into its downtrend thanks to renewed worries over Chinese demand. Prices need a substantial turnaround on the Covid front in China to resume a rally. The latest Covid restrictions reinforce the argument that it’s still too early to expect a meaningful recovery in Chinese oil demand. Investor sentiment at the moment looks fragile enough to keep oil prices under pressure for some time. WTI has flipped to contango, reflecting growing concern over oversupply, while hedge funds are turning bearish, cutting their net-long positions for Brent and WTI to a 3-week low. Granted, there are some upside risks, but they seem to have been largely priced in. The renewed downside risks due to the uncertain outlook for demand are likely to prevail for longer, unless there’s a clearer sign of a full reopening in China.
Crude oil has retreated back into its downtrend thanks to renewed worries over Chinese demand. Prices need a substantial turnaround on the Covid front in China to resume a rally. The latest Covid restrictions reinforce the argument that it’s still too early to expect a meaningful recovery in Chinese oil demand. Investor sentiment at the moment looks fragile enough to keep oil prices under pressure for some time. WTI has flipped to contango, reflecting growing concern over oversupply, while hedge funds are turning bearish, cutting their net-long positions for Brent and WTI to a 3-week low. Granted, there are some upside risks, but they seem to have been largely priced in. The renewed downside risks due to the uncertain outlook for demand are likely to prevail for longer, unless there’s a clearer sign of a full reopening in China.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스의 전략가는 인플레이션 완화와 중국의 봉쇄정책 완화에 대한 기대로 증시가 가파르게 상승하고, 일부 지수는 심지어 강세장 영역에 이르렀음에도 불구하고 약세장은 끝나지 않았다고 제시함. 그는 증시의 저점이 발생하기 전에 있어야 금리의 고점 신호, 그리고 경기침체를 반영하는 수준의 주식에 대한 할인 된 가치 평가가 이뤄지지 않았음을 근거로 세웠음. 2023년 S&P 500 지수의 목표를 4,000 포인트로 제시했는데 이는 금요일 종가에서 0.9% 높은 수준임. 유럽의 STOXX 600 지수의 2023년 목표 또한 현재보다 4% 높은 수준에 불과하게 제시함. 경제 성장률 하락폭이 더뎌지거나, 기업 이익의 감소 폭이 줄어드는 시점에 도달하기 전에 증시 회복은 쉽지 않기에, 단기적으로는 높은 변동성과 하방 위험이 더 클 것으로 전망함.
Equity investors hoping for a better year in 2023 will be disappointed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists, who said the bear market phase is not over yet. “The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached,” strategists including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell wrote in a note on Monday. They said that a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting recession are necessary before any sustained stock-market recovery can happen. The strategists estimate the S&P 500 will end 2023 at 4,000 index points -- just 0.9% higher than Friday’s close -- while Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 will finish next year about 4% higher at 450 index points. Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau have the same target for the European gauge and said the path to get there will be “tricky.”. The comments come after a recent rally -- driven by softer US inflation data and news of easing Covid restrictions in China -- that saw several global indexes enter technical bull market levels. The sharp rebound since mid-October followed a tumultuous year for global markets as central banks embarked on aggressive rate hikes to tame soaring inflation, stoking concerns of recession. Goldman’s strategists said the gains aren’t sustainable, because stocks don’t typically recover from troughs until the rate of deterioration in economic and earnings growth slows down. “The near-term path for equity markets is likely to be volatile and down,” they said.
Equity investors hoping for a better year in 2023 will be disappointed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists, who said the bear market phase is not over yet. “The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached,” strategists including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell wrote in a note on Monday. They said that a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting recession are necessary before any sustained stock-market recovery can happen. The strategists estimate the S&P 500 will end 2023 at 4,000 index points -- just 0.9% higher than Friday’s close -- while Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 will finish next year about 4% higher at 450 index points. Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau have the same target for the European gauge and said the path to get there will be “tricky.”. The comments come after a recent rally -- driven by softer US inflation data and news of easing Covid restrictions in China -- that saw several global indexes enter technical bull market levels. The sharp rebound since mid-October followed a tumultuous year for global markets as central banks embarked on aggressive rate hikes to tame soaring inflation, stoking concerns of recession. Goldman’s strategists said the gains aren’t sustainable, because stocks don’t typically recover from troughs until the rate of deterioration in economic and earnings growth slows down. “The near-term path for equity markets is likely to be volatile and down,” they said.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건의 전략가는 중앙은행이 금리를 인하하기 전까지 자산가격의 안정적 상승은 어렵다고 전망함. 금리인하를 내년 언젠가 하겠지만, 그 시점이 불명확하고, 금리인하를 위해서는 실업률 증가, 물가 하락, 금융시장의 어떤 붕괴가 필요함. 고용시장이 워낙 강해 투자자들은 금리인상의 단서를 물가 하락, 경제나 기업 이익 둔화, 그리고 금융시장 어딘가에서의 붕괴위험을 살피고 있다고 함.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic says in order to have a sustained rally in asset prices the Federal Reserve needs to start reducing interest rates, but that’s unlikely to happen in the near term. The Fed may begin cutting rates at some point next year, but the timing remains unclear, JPMorgan strategists led by Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. A combination of increased unemployment, declining inflation and “something breaking in financial markets” are likely necessary for a Fed pivot, they wrote. Since an increase in unemployment is unlikely to happen soon, traders are looking for better inflation data, signs that the economy and earnings growth are slowing, and rising risks of a financial accident.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic says in order to have a sustained rally in asset prices the Federal Reserve needs to start reducing interest rates, but that’s unlikely to happen in the near term. The Fed may begin cutting rates at some point next year, but the timing remains unclear, JPMorgan strategists led by Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. A combination of increased unemployment, declining inflation and “something breaking in financial markets” are likely necessary for a Fed pivot, they wrote. Since an increase in unemployment is unlikely to happen soon, traders are looking for better inflation data, signs that the economy and earnings growth are slowing, and rising risks of a financial accident.