2. 투자은행들의 세부 전망치를 살펴보면, i) UBS, 도이치뱅크는 내년에 각각 175bp, 100bp의 금리인하를 예상하고 있음. ii) 노무라의 경우 최종 정책금리는 5%가 아니라 5.75%까지 오를 것으로 보고 있으며, 노무라와 바클레이즈는 75bp의 금리인하를 예상함. iii) 비교적 낮은 최종 정책금리인 4.75%를 전망하는 모건스탠리는 내년 연말에 25bp 한차례 금리인하를 예상하며, iv) 골드만삭스와 웰스파고는 5.25%의 최종금리 도달 이후 한 해 내도록 이 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있음. v) 씨티의 경우 5.5%의 최종금리를 형성한 뒤 이를 연간 내도록 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있음.
3. 이들이 이렇게 최종 정책금리, 그리고 다시 금리인하를 하지 않거나 하더라도 그 폭이 다른 근거를 살펴보면, i) 노무라의 경우 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 중앙은행이 더욱 일을 해야 할 것으로 보면서 가장 높은 5.75%의 정책금리를 제시했고, ii) UBS의 경우 실업률이 무려 5%까지 도달하는 경착륙을 가정하면서 175bp의 가장 큰 폭의 금리인하를 제시했음.
4. 이어서 다른 투자은행도 살펴보면, i) 도이치뱅크 또한 실업률이 5.5%, 인플레이션은 3%를 조금 초과하는 수준에서 경기침체를 경험할 것으로 전망하며, ii) 골드만삭스나 웰스파고의 경우 너무 이른 금리인하는 인플레이션이 통제될 수 있도록 잠재성장률 이하에 성장을 있도록 하는 압력을 해제해버릴 수 있다는 의견임. 이들은 또한 경기침체를 가까스로 피할 수 있을 것으로 보면서 경기침체를 겪을 것이란 다른 투자은행과 궤를 달리했음.
5. 끝으로 모건스탠리의 경우 가장 낮은 최종 정책금리를 제시했지만, 또한 금리인하의 시점을 내년 12월 한 차례, 단 25bp로 보기도 했음. 이들의 경우 경기침체는 가까스로 피하겠으나 여전히 높은 인플레이션이 상당기간 유지될 것이기 때문이라 밝힘.
6. 그렇다면 중앙은행이 현재의 통화정책 방향을 바꾸는데 무엇을 보아야 할까, 이 질문에 대해 파이퍼 샌들러의 애널리스트는 다음 5개 조건을 제시했는데, i) 핵심 물가가 2%를 향하고 있다는 확신, ii) 물가 기대 하락, iii) 더 긴축적인 금융시장 환경(Financial Condition Index), iv) 노동시장의 상당한 침체, v) 통화정책이 충분한 효과를 낼 수 있는 더 긴 시간(최소 2023년 3월 이후)임.
Bottom-line: 파산절차에 들어 간 FTX에 대한 법원 서류에 따르면, 최소 2,100만 달러 이상, 최고 2억 2,600만 달러의 빚을 50명의 채권자들에게 지고 있으며, 이 50명의 무담보 채무 총액은 31억 달러에 달함. 채권자들은 FTX에 고객으로 등록되어 있으며, 파산절차가 진행됨에 따라 FTX로부터 돈을 회수할 수 있는 방법을 찾는데 무게를 둘 것임. 사건이 진행되면 백만명 이상의 채권자들이 연관 될 수 있다고 함.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each. FTX-linked entities owe their single biggest unsecured creditor more than $226 million, according to a redacted list of top 50 creditors filed late Saturday. All of them were listed as customers and ten have claims of more than $100 million each, the filings show. The creditors, whose names and locations weren’t disclosed, are among the vast array of people and institutions caught up in FTX’s insolvency. The 50 largest claims are all from customers owed $21 million or more. In the US, bankrupt companies are required to disclose information about their debts as part of insolvency proceedings. Creditors will get to weigh in on the best way for FTX to repay its debts as the bankruptcy unfolds. FTX said it has assets and liabilities of at least $10 billion each in preliminary court papers. The case may involve more than one million creditors, according to lawyers for FTX. The case is FTX Trading Ltd., 22-11068, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s bankrupt crypto empire owes its 50 biggest unsecured creditors a total of $3.1 billion, new court papers show, with a pair of customers owed more than $200 million each. FTX-linked entities owe their single biggest unsecured creditor more than $226 million, according to a redacted list of top 50 creditors filed late Saturday. All of them were listed as customers and ten have claims of more than $100 million each, the filings show. The creditors, whose names and locations weren’t disclosed, are among the vast array of people and institutions caught up in FTX’s insolvency. The 50 largest claims are all from customers owed $21 million or more. In the US, bankrupt companies are required to disclose information about their debts as part of insolvency proceedings. Creditors will get to weigh in on the best way for FTX to repay its debts as the bankruptcy unfolds. FTX said it has assets and liabilities of at least $10 billion each in preliminary court papers. The case may involve more than one million creditors, according to lawyers for FTX. The case is FTX Trading Ltd., 22-11068, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.
Bottom-line: 바이러스 억제 정책을 완화할 것이란 추측과 달리 북경 인근에 위치 한 도시의 교육시설을 봉쇄하고 거주자들에게 5일 간 자택에 머무르란 방침이 시작 됨. 인구 1,100만의 이 도시는 북경서 300km 떨어져 있으며, 이 지역 6개 구역에 대규모 바이러스 검사 및 이동 제한이 이뤄지고 대면 교육이 중단 됨.
A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for China dispensing with all virus restrictions has suspended schools, locked down universities and asked residents to stay at home for five days, a potential sign officials are reverting to tighter Covid Zero curbs as cases multiply. Shijiazhuang -- a city of some 11 million people about 186 miles (300 kilometers) from the capital -- has forbidden residents in areas deemed high risk from leaving their homes, with everyone else advised to stay at home “in principle,” according to the statement carried by official Shijiazhuang Daily. A mass Covid testing exercise will be undertaken in six major districts, and universities will be put into so-called closed loops, where students are unable to leave campuses. All in-person classes at primary and middle schools have been halted.
A city near Beijing that was rumored to be a test case for China dispensing with all virus restrictions has suspended schools, locked down universities and asked residents to stay at home for five days, a potential sign officials are reverting to tighter Covid Zero curbs as cases multiply. Shijiazhuang -- a city of some 11 million people about 186 miles (300 kilometers) from the capital -- has forbidden residents in areas deemed high risk from leaving their homes, with everyone else advised to stay at home “in principle,” according to the statement carried by official Shijiazhuang Daily. A mass Covid testing exercise will be undertaken in six major districts, and universities will be put into so-called closed loops, where students are unable to leave campuses. All in-person classes at primary and middle schools have been halted.
Bottom-line: 금에 대한 선물 포지션 자료에 따르면 주간 순매수 증가량이 2020년 2월 이후 최고치를 기록함. 순매수 증가의 원인을 나눠보면 신규 매수자보다 기존 매도자들의 포지션 정리가 큰 영향을 미침. 보통 금은 금리가 하락하거나 경기침체가 올 것으로 예상 될 때 매수세가 강해지는데, 매도자들의 포지션은 그동안 중앙은행의 금리인상에 따른 포지션이었음. 그러므로 최근 금의 순매수 증가는 경기침체 우려에 따른 안전자산 선호라기 보다는, 중앙은행의 정책 선회 기대감이 크다고 해석할 수 있음.
The latest CFTC data show a sharp increase in net long positions in gold, the biggest gain since February 2020. The safe haven asset typically sees a bid when markets are anticipating a fall in interest rates or an economic slowdown. A closer look at the CFTC data show that the aggressive rise in net longs are mostly coming from short covering rather than traders adding on long positions. This suggests markets are mostly pricing for a Fed pivot to happen sooner, rather than from heightened recession fear. The yellow metal might continue to see more short covering as markets anticipate less hawkish global central banks going forward.
The latest CFTC data show a sharp increase in net long positions in gold, the biggest gain since February 2020. The safe haven asset typically sees a bid when markets are anticipating a fall in interest rates or an economic slowdown. A closer look at the CFTC data show that the aggressive rise in net longs are mostly coming from short covering rather than traders adding on long positions. This suggests markets are mostly pricing for a Fed pivot to happen sooner, rather than from heightened recession fear. The yellow metal might continue to see more short covering as markets anticipate less hawkish global central banks going forward.
Bottom-line: 원유 선물 곡선이 다시 콘탱고 상태로 접어들며 수요 둔화에 따른 과잉공급 우려를 반영함. 중국이 또 다시 봉쇄 움직임을 보이면서, 중국의 수요가 추가적인 원유 가격 상승을 이끌 수 있단 확실한 신호를 얻기 전엔 투자자들은 매우 조심스러운 입장을 지키려고 함. 원유 선물의 순매수 포지션 또한 3주래 최저치를 기록함.
Crude oil has retreated back into its downtrend thanks to renewed worries over Chinese demand. Prices need a substantial turnaround on the Covid front in China to resume a rally. The latest Covid restrictions reinforce the argument that it’s still too early to expect a meaningful recovery in Chinese oil demand. Investor sentiment at the moment looks fragile enough to keep oil prices under pressure for some time. WTI has flipped to contango, reflecting growing concern over oversupply, while hedge funds are turning bearish, cutting their net-long positions for Brent and WTI to a 3-week low. Granted, there are some upside risks, but they seem to have been largely priced in. The renewed downside risks due to the uncertain outlook for demand are likely to prevail for longer, unless there’s a clearer sign of a full reopening in China.
Crude oil has retreated back into its downtrend thanks to renewed worries over Chinese demand. Prices need a substantial turnaround on the Covid front in China to resume a rally. The latest Covid restrictions reinforce the argument that it’s still too early to expect a meaningful recovery in Chinese oil demand. Investor sentiment at the moment looks fragile enough to keep oil prices under pressure for some time. WTI has flipped to contango, reflecting growing concern over oversupply, while hedge funds are turning bearish, cutting their net-long positions for Brent and WTI to a 3-week low. Granted, there are some upside risks, but they seem to have been largely priced in. The renewed downside risks due to the uncertain outlook for demand are likely to prevail for longer, unless there’s a clearer sign of a full reopening in China.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스의 전략가는 인플레이션 완화와 중국의 봉쇄정책 완화에 대한 기대로 증시가 가파르게 상승하고, 일부 지수는 심지어 강세장 영역에 이르렀음에도 불구하고 약세장은 끝나지 않았다고 제시함. 그는 증시의 저점이 발생하기 전에 있어야 금리의 고점 신호, 그리고 경기침체를 반영하는 수준의 주식에 대한 할인 된 가치 평가가 이뤄지지 않았음을 근거로 세웠음. 2023년 S&P 500 지수의 목표를 4,000 포인트로 제시했는데 이는 금요일 종가에서 0.9% 높은 수준임. 유럽의 STOXX 600 지수의 2023년 목표 또한 현재보다 4% 높은 수준에 불과하게 제시함. 경제 성장률 하락폭이 더뎌지거나, 기업 이익의 감소 폭이 줄어드는 시점에 도달하기 전에 증시 회복은 쉽지 않기에, 단기적으로는 높은 변동성과 하방 위험이 더 클 것으로 전망함.
Equity investors hoping for a better year in 2023 will be disappointed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists, who said the bear market phase is not over yet. “The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached,” strategists including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell wrote in a note on Monday. They said that a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting recession are necessary before any sustained stock-market recovery can happen. The strategists estimate the S&P 500 will end 2023 at 4,000 index points -- just 0.9% higher than Friday’s close -- while Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 will finish next year about 4% higher at 450 index points. Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau have the same target for the European gauge and said the path to get there will be “tricky.”. The comments come after a recent rally -- driven by softer US inflation data and news of easing Covid restrictions in China -- that saw several global indexes enter technical bull market levels. The sharp rebound since mid-October followed a tumultuous year for global markets as central banks embarked on aggressive rate hikes to tame soaring inflation, stoking concerns of recession. Goldman’s strategists said the gains aren’t sustainable, because stocks don’t typically recover from troughs until the rate of deterioration in economic and earnings growth slows down. “The near-term path for equity markets is likely to be volatile and down,” they said.
Equity investors hoping for a better year in 2023 will be disappointed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists, who said the bear market phase is not over yet. “The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached,” strategists including Peter Oppenheimer and Sharon Bell wrote in a note on Monday. They said that a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting recession are necessary before any sustained stock-market recovery can happen. The strategists estimate the S&P 500 will end 2023 at 4,000 index points -- just 0.9% higher than Friday’s close -- while Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 will finish next year about 4% higher at 450 index points. Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau have the same target for the European gauge and said the path to get there will be “tricky.”. The comments come after a recent rally -- driven by softer US inflation data and news of easing Covid restrictions in China -- that saw several global indexes enter technical bull market levels. The sharp rebound since mid-October followed a tumultuous year for global markets as central banks embarked on aggressive rate hikes to tame soaring inflation, stoking concerns of recession. Goldman’s strategists said the gains aren’t sustainable, because stocks don’t typically recover from troughs until the rate of deterioration in economic and earnings growth slows down. “The near-term path for equity markets is likely to be volatile and down,” they said.
Bottom-line: 제이피모건의 전략가는 중앙은행이 금리를 인하하기 전까지 자산가격의 안정적 상승은 어렵다고 전망함. 금리인하를 내년 언젠가 하겠지만, 그 시점이 불명확하고, 금리인하를 위해서는 실업률 증가, 물가 하락, 금융시장의 어떤 붕괴가 필요함. 고용시장이 워낙 강해 투자자들은 금리인상의 단서를 물가 하락, 경제나 기업 이익 둔화, 그리고 금융시장 어딘가에서의 붕괴위험을 살피고 있다고 함.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic says in order to have a sustained rally in asset prices the Federal Reserve needs to start reducing interest rates, but that’s unlikely to happen in the near term. The Fed may begin cutting rates at some point next year, but the timing remains unclear, JPMorgan strategists led by Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. A combination of increased unemployment, declining inflation and “something breaking in financial markets” are likely necessary for a Fed pivot, they wrote. Since an increase in unemployment is unlikely to happen soon, traders are looking for better inflation data, signs that the economy and earnings growth are slowing, and rising risks of a financial accident.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic says in order to have a sustained rally in asset prices the Federal Reserve needs to start reducing interest rates, but that’s unlikely to happen in the near term. The Fed may begin cutting rates at some point next year, but the timing remains unclear, JPMorgan strategists led by Kolanovic wrote in a note to clients Monday. A combination of increased unemployment, declining inflation and “something breaking in financial markets” are likely necessary for a Fed pivot, they wrote. Since an increase in unemployment is unlikely to happen soon, traders are looking for better inflation data, signs that the economy and earnings growth are slowing, and rising risks of a financial accident.
Bottom-line: 칼 아이칸은 개인 투자자들의 열풍에 따른 광란의 주식 시대 때부터 게임스탑에 대한 매도 포지션을 구축해서 현재까지 유지하고 있는 것으로 알려졌음. 2021년 1월 당시 게임스탑의 최고 가격이었던 483달러 부근에서 매도 포지션을 쌓기 시작한 것으로 추정되며, 이 주식의 가격이 기업의 본질적 가치와 무관하게 형성되었기 때문에 지속적인 가격 하락이 있을 것으로 예상하고 있음. 주식을 1/4로 분할한 게임스탑은 고점 대비 -71% 하락한 상태에서 거래되고 있음.
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn began shorting GameStop Corp. during the height of the meme-stock frenzy around January 2021 and still holds a large position in the video-game retailer, according to people familiar with the matter. Icahn started building the short when GameStop was trading near its peak of $483 per share and still holds a large bet against the retailer’s shares, said the people, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The investor, who has added to his position from time to time, is betting that GameStop’s stock isn’t trading on its fundamentals and will continue to fall, the people said. The size of his position isn’t clear. GameStop fell 8.8% Monday to close at $25.16, giving the retailer a market value of $7.7 billion. The retailer executed a four-for-one stock split this year and has lost 71% of its value from a January 2021 closing high.
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn began shorting GameStop Corp. during the height of the meme-stock frenzy around January 2021 and still holds a large position in the video-game retailer, according to people familiar with the matter. Icahn started building the short when GameStop was trading near its peak of $483 per share and still holds a large bet against the retailer’s shares, said the people, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The investor, who has added to his position from time to time, is betting that GameStop’s stock isn’t trading on its fundamentals and will continue to fall, the people said. The size of his position isn’t clear. GameStop fell 8.8% Monday to close at $25.16, giving the retailer a market value of $7.7 billion. The retailer executed a four-for-one stock split this year and has lost 71% of its value from a January 2021 closing high.
Bottom-line: 타이거 글로벌 자산운용이 FTX에 투자할 때 실사를 담당한 곳 중 하나가 베인 앤 컴퍼니로 알려짐. 타이거 글로벌은 베인 앤 컴퍼니에 실사와 분석에 대한 대가로 연간 단위로 1억 달러 이상을 지불하고 있음. FTX에 투자한 3,800만 달러의 가치는 현재 0으로 상각했으며, 투자 당시 매니저는 일부 위험이 발견됐음에도 불구하고 이 투자가 안전하다고 생각했음. FTX 사태로 수십억 달러에 달하는 잠재적 손실이 헤지펀드, 벤처 캐피탈에 확대됨에 따라 '왜 위험을 사전에 발견하지 못했는가'에 관심이 집중되고 있음.
Bain & Co. was among consulting firms that helped conduct due diligence for Tiger Global Management’s investment in now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, according to people familiar with the matter. Tiger Global, which pays Bain more than $100 million a year to research private companies, has now written downits $38 million FTX stake to zero, the people said. Sam Bankman-Fried’s oversight of a vast web of FTX-linked entities was one of the risks highlighted during the due-diligence process, but the money manager still believed it was a sound investment at the time, one of the people said. A representative for Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global declined to comment, and Bain didn’t immediately reply to messages seeking comment. This month’s implosion of FTX has caused billions of dollars of potential losses for investors and sparked legal and regulatory probes. It also prompted questions about how warning signs were missed by institutional investors, including hedge funds and venture capital firms. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan was among them, writing off its entire $95 million investment, while Sequoia Capital marked down its $214 million wager to zero.
Bain & Co. was among consulting firms that helped conduct due diligence for Tiger Global Management’s investment in now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, according to people familiar with the matter. Tiger Global, which pays Bain more than $100 million a year to research private companies, has now written down
Bottom-line: 각국의 중앙은행들이 금리를 인상하며 투자자들의 투자등급 회사채 만기 선호도가 급격하게 짧아지고 있음. 이번 달 발행 된 채권의 평균 만기는 6.3년으로 2018년 12월 이후 가장 짧으며, 올해 10개월 간 발행 된 채권의 평균 만기 7.8년과도 큰 차이를 보임. 투자자들은 금리가 지속 높아지는 상황에서 15년래 최고 금리를 확정하기보다 금리 변동에 포트폴리오 노출을 줄이기 위해 만기를 더 짧게 가져가려고 하는 위험회피 태도를 보이고 있음.
Borrowers piling into Europe’s debt market are selling bonds with the lowest average maturity in four years. Bonds sold this month by investment-grade issuers in the common currency have an average tenor of about 6.3 years, the lowest since December 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 7.8-year average maturity for notes issued in the first 10 months of 2022. “Beyond investors taking a cautious stance on the curve, I think many issuers were and still will be hesitant to lock in what could be close to peak yields for 12 years or 15 years,” said Commerzbank AG head of credit strategy Marco Stoeckle. “There is a good chance that conditions might improve next year.”. Multiple central bank rate hikes this year have pushed borrowing costs toward the highest in a decade, making it more expensive for companies to issue long-term debt. Meanwhile, with longer-maturity notes most exposed to yield swings, investors have a preference for shorter notes as they navigate the volatility that’s buffeted global markets this year. “Investors are wary of extending interest rates sensitivity of their bond portfolios in an environment where interest rates are on the rise,” said Paola Binns, a portfolio manager at Royal London Asset Management Ltd.
Borrowers piling into Europe’s debt market are selling bonds with the lowest average maturity in four years. Bonds sold this month by investment-grade issuers in the common currency have an average tenor of about 6.3 years, the lowest since December 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 7.8-year average maturity for notes issued in the first 10 months of 2022. “Beyond investors taking a cautious stance on the curve, I think many issuers were and still will be hesitant to lock in what could be close to peak yields for 12 years or 15 years,” said Commerzbank AG head of credit strategy Marco Stoeckle. “There is a good chance that conditions might improve next year.”. Multiple central bank rate hikes this year have pushed borrowing costs toward the highest in a decade, making it more expensive for companies to issue long-term debt. Meanwhile, with longer-maturity notes most exposed to yield swings, investors have a preference for shorter notes as they navigate the volatility that’s buffeted global markets this year. “Investors are wary of extending interest rates sensitivity of their bond portfolios in an environment where interest rates are on the rise,” said Paola Binns, a portfolio manager at Royal London Asset Management Ltd.