Bottom-line: 미국 상장 중국 주식이 이번 달 30% 이상 상승하면서 전월의 25% 하락을 매섭게 회복했을 뿐 아니라, 2001년 집계 이후 최고의 월간 수익률을 기록했음. 이는 중국이 11월 11일 바이러스 억제정책 완화에 대한 지침이 시작 된 이후 전일 고령자에 대한 백신 접종을 강화하겠다고 구체적인 내용을 하나씩 밝히면서 투자자들의 긍정적 심리를 이끌었기 때문임. 이와 같은 바이러스 억제정책 완화 뿐만 아니라 경제 및 부동산 관련 지원 정책까지 발표됐고, 예상보다 덜 나쁜 성장 기업들의 실적도 전세계 투자자들이 중국 주식에 대한 보다 긍정적 시각을 가지게 하는데 도움이 되었음. 모건스탠리 전략가는 경제재개를 향하는 길이 순탄치는 않겠지만 그 경로를 이탈하진 않을 것이라고 보고서를 통해 밝혔음.
US-listed Chinese stocks are on track for the best month ever as investors grow more encouraged about a potential shift away from the strict pandemic policies that have slowed the economy. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index surged 5.1% on Tuesday after Beijing vowed to speed up Covid shots for the elderly, which is seen as a critical step toward allowing the nation to abandon its Covid Zero policy. The gain leaves the benchmark of US-listed Chinese shares up 30% this month, a dramatic turnaround from October’s 25% plunge and the biggest monthly advance since the data begin in 2001. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong also rose, pushing the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up over 6% Tuesday and putting it on track for the best month since 2003. Global investors have become more positive about Chinese equities as Beijing pares back some Covid restrictions and puts forward measures to support the economy and the housing sector. Better-than-expected earnings report from major Internet companies have also helped. “We think the path towards reopening is set to be bumpy but not derailing,” Morgan Stanley strategist Laura Wang wrote in a note to clients. The direction was established by the Nov. 11 relaxation of Covid guidelines and reinforced by the latest statement detailing the plan for boosting vaccinations among the elderly, according to the note.
US-listed Chinese stocks are on track for the best month ever as investors grow more encouraged about a potential shift away from the strict pandemic policies that have slowed the economy. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index surged 5.1% on Tuesday after Beijing vowed to speed up Covid shots for the elderly, which is seen as a critical step toward allowing the nation to abandon its Covid Zero policy. The gain leaves the benchmark of US-listed Chinese shares up 30% this month, a dramatic turnaround from October’s 25% plunge and the biggest monthly advance since the data begin in 2001. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong also rose, pushing the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up over 6% Tuesday and putting it on track for the best month since 2003. Global investors have become more positive about Chinese equities as Beijing pares back some Covid restrictions and puts forward measures to support the economy and the housing sector. Better-than-expected earnings report from major Internet companies have also helped. “We think the path towards reopening is set to be bumpy but not derailing,” Morgan Stanley strategist Laura Wang wrote in a note to clients. The direction was established by the Nov. 11 relaxation of Covid guidelines and reinforced by the latest statement detailing the plan for boosting vaccinations among the elderly, according to the note.
Hiring at US companies cooled in November to the slowest pace in nearly two years and wage gains moderated, suggesting employers may be starting to hit the brakes amid a darkening economic outlook.
Bottom-line: 다우산업지수가 9월 저점 대비 20% 이상 상승하며 강세장 영역에 진입했고, 채권시장 거래자들은 중앙은행의 최종금리 예상을 5% 밑으로 낮췄음. 파월 의장은 여전한 인플레이션 불확실성에 따라 50bp라는 금리인상폭 축소보다 추가적인 인상이 얼마나 더 필요한지와 해당 금리수준을 어느 정도까지 유지할지가 보다 중요한 문제라 강조함. 이는 긴축주기가 끝나기엔 더 많은 증거를 필요로 한단 것이나 시장은 예상 된 범위의 발언에 긍정적 가격 반응을 함.
A Fed downshift looks imminent, but the tightening cycle is far from over. Jerome Powell signaled the FOMC will hike by 50 bps next month, and said smaller increases are less important than the questions of how much further to go and for how long. Officials need "substantially more evidence" to ensure prices are moderating, the chair added. "The path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain." Bond traders dialed back their peak rate expectations to below 5%. Stocks roared back on Powell's comments, pushing the S&P 500 to a two-month high as it notched its longest monthly winning streak since August 2021. The DJIA entered a bull market, rising 20% from its September low.
A Fed downshift looks imminent, but the tightening cycle is far from over. Jerome Powell signaled the FOMC will hike by 50 bps next month, and said smaller increases are less important than the questions of how much further to go and for how long. Officials need "substantially more evidence" to ensure prices are moderating, the chair added. "The path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain." Bond traders dialed back their peak rate expectations to below 5%. Stocks roared back on Powell's comments, pushing the S&P 500 to a two-month high as it notched its longest monthly winning streak since August 2021. The DJIA entered a bull market, rising 20% from its September low.
Bottom-line: 북경 내 인구 밀집도가 높은 지역에서부터 경미한 증상의 바이러스 환자에 대한 자택격리를 선택할 수 있도록 허용할 수 있다고 함. 비공식적이지만 현재 모든 환자가 시설 격리를 해야 하는 현행에서 완화 된 지침으로 인구 350만명의 차오양 지역에서부터 보다 널리 확대되어 표준이 될 수도 있을 것임.
Beijing will allow some virus-infected people to isolate at home, starting with residents of the city’s most-populous district, a landmark shift that reflects the pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to Covid Zero. Low-risk patients can do home isolation for a week if they choose, people familiar with the plans said, dialing back a nationwide policy that has seen everyone with Covid sent to government quarantine sites regardless of severity, to halt transmission chains. The shift has already begun in Chaoyang district -- home to some 3.5 million people as well as foreign embassies and company offices -- and it will act as an example for other districts to follow, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing an order that’s not yet public.
Beijing will allow some virus-infected people to isolate at home, starting with residents of the city’s most-populous district, a landmark shift that reflects the pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to Covid Zero. Low-risk patients can do home isolation for a week if they choose, people familiar with the plans said, dialing back a nationwide policy that has seen everyone with Covid sent to government quarantine sites regardless of severity, to halt transmission chains. The shift has already begun in Chaoyang district -- home to some 3.5 million people as well as foreign embassies and company offices -- and it will act as an example for other districts to follow, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing an order that’s not yet public.
Bottom-line: 달러 지수는 11월 한달 간 금융위기 이후 최대치로 하락했으며, 12월도 2표준편차 이상의 가격 움직임으로 시작함. 이와 같은 움직임 전에 연기금 펀드, 보험사 펀드 및 기관 펀드가 1년 6개월 만에 처음으로 달러에 대한 순매도 포지션을 구축했었다는 점이 흥미로우며, 최근에 레버리지 펀드도 순매도자로 전환했음. 비록 현재 순매도 포지션 금액이 크다고 할 순 없지만, 추가적으로 달러 약세 방향에 얼마나 더 베팅하게 될지 지속 관찰할 가치가 있음.
The ferocity of the turnaround in the dollar is certainly eye-catching. November saw the biggest monthly drop since the Global Financial Crisis, and December opened with a two-standard deviation drop. Just how far it will fall will depend as much on the change in positioning as it will on momentum and rates differentials. Commitment of traders data show that pension funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors have amassed their largest net-short position on the greenback in nearly a year and a half -- and that’s before the latest declines. What’s interesting now, as the chart by Naomi Tajitsu shows, is that leveraged funds also turned net sellers. Such funds can be highly influential in driving rallies, but are also very fickle when momentum shifts. Their additional risk exposure makes them skittish. As my colleague, Cameron Crise, points out, though, FX contracts come in different dollar values -- and at -$3 billion, the short exposure at the last reading was not huge. Momentum, then, may well be on the bears side, but it’ll be interesting to see how much risk they’re taking on.
The ferocity of the turnaround in the dollar is certainly eye-catching. November saw the biggest monthly drop since the Global Financial Crisis, and December opened with a two-standard deviation drop. Just how far it will fall will depend as much on the change in positioning as it will on momentum and rates differentials. Commitment of traders data show that pension funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors have amassed their largest net-short position on the greenback in nearly a year and a half -- and that’s before the latest declines. What’s interesting now, as the chart by Naomi Tajitsu shows, is that leveraged funds also turned net sellers. Such funds can be highly influential in driving rallies, but are also very fickle when momentum shifts. Their additional risk exposure makes them skittish. As my colleague, Cameron Crise, points out, though, FX contracts come in different dollar values -- and at -$3 billion, the short exposure at the last reading was not huge. Momentum, then, may well be on the bears side, but it’ll be interesting to see how much risk they’re taking on.
Bottom-line: 포커 테이블 위에서 한 판에 모든걸 뒤집으려는 도박사처럼, 주식시장의 강세 베팅이 중첩되고 있음. 펀드 매니저들이 주식 비중을 확대하고, 헤지펀드가 강세에 베팅할 때 신호 중 하나인 옵션을 통한 하방위험을 헤지하고 있음. 중앙은행의 정책 변화 기대는 이러한 기관 투자자 뿐만 아니라 개인 투자자들이 즐겨 매수하는 주식들에도 활력을 더했음. 10월 이후 줄곧 상승한 강한 시장에도 불구 올해 반락하며 무산 된 시장과 다를 수 있다 구분하긴 어렵고, 전문가들은 여전히 이번 상승이 견조함을 가지고 있는지 의구심을 품고 있음. 낙관론자들이 주의해야 할 점은 이번 상승 과정이 8월의 그것과 매우 유사하다는 것임. 그 당시 최근과 같은 현상 이후 8주 간 S&P 500 지수는 15% 하락했음.
Like stuck card players trying to win it all back in one hand, equity bulls are dialing up risk appetites at the tail-end of a brutal year. Active stock managers are adding to positions. Option markets show a trend toward hedging, a sign professional traders are dipping back into equities. Beyond institutional circles, demand for meme stocks springs eternal, with chat-room favorites like AMC Entertainment posting big days. Fueling the momentum, as usual, is speculation about a policy shift at the Federal Reserve -- hopes that took lumps Friday when US hiring and wage growth rose past forecasts. While changes in market leadership may portend a sturdier future for a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 14% since October, it remains hard to distinguish the latest bull run from those that fell apart earlier this year. “You’ve just got a tough market in terms of folks hoping for signs of some reprieve, but realizing that conditions are still relatively tough,” said Lisa Erickson, senior vice president and head of public markets group at US Bank Wealth Management. “We are more skeptical that this rally is durable regardless of which sector or which style like value or growth is leading it.”. The problem for bulls is that the latest revival of risk appetites is a near-perfect rerun of the situation in early August, when active managers and hedge funds dialed up exposure and meme stocks in some cases doubled and tripled. That episode ended in disaster for bulls, with the S&P 500 plummeting more than 15% over eight weeks. Plenty of pundits see the potential for the same fate this time.
Like stuck card players trying to win it all back in one hand, equity bulls are dialing up risk appetites at the tail-end of a brutal year. Active stock managers are adding to positions. Option markets show a trend toward hedging, a sign professional traders are dipping back into equities. Beyond institutional circles, demand for meme stocks springs eternal, with chat-room favorites like AMC Entertainment posting big days. Fueling the momentum, as usual, is speculation about a policy shift at the Federal Reserve -- hopes that took lumps Friday when US hiring and wage growth rose past forecasts. While changes in market leadership may portend a sturdier future for a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 14% since October, it remains hard to distinguish the latest bull run from those that fell apart earlier this year. “You’ve just got a tough market in terms of folks hoping for signs of some reprieve, but realizing that conditions are still relatively tough,” said Lisa Erickson, senior vice president and head of public markets group at US Bank Wealth Management. “We are more skeptical that this rally is durable regardless of which sector or which style like value or growth is leading it.”. The problem for bulls is that the latest revival of risk appetites is a near-perfect rerun of the situation in early August, when active managers and hedge funds dialed up exposure and meme stocks in some cases doubled and tripled. That episode ended in disaster for bulls, with the S&P 500 plummeting more than 15% over eight weeks. Plenty of pundits see the potential for the same fate this time.
CNH has strengthened rapidly early on Monday morning. This is partly on news that Shanghai has eased Covid testing rules, and partly because the psychologically important 7.00 level has been broken.
Bottom-line: 모건스탠리가 2년만에 중국에 대한 투자의견을 상향하며 월가의 중국에 대한 강세론에 합류함. 경제재개를 포함한 다양한 긍정적 이슈들이 투자의견 상향을 뒷받침하며, 중국증시가 수익과 가치 측면에서 모두 회복 국면에 있게 될 것이라 전망함. MSCI 중국 지수 기준 목표를 종전 59 포인트에서 70 포인트로 10% 이상의 상승여력을 가지는 수준까지 상향함.
Morgan Stanley is turning bullish again on Chinese stocks after almost two years, joining a growing chorus of Wall Street banks that are sanguine on the nation’s outlook as it moves to relax Covid-19 measures. “Multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set toward reopening warrant an upgrade,” strategists including Laura Wang wrote in a note dated Sunday. “We are at the beginning of a multi-quarter recovery in earnings revisions and valuations.” The brokerage lifted China to overweight from an equal-weight position it had held since January 2021. It raised its end-2023 targets for the MSCI China Index to 70 from 59 and for the Hang Seng Index to 21,200 from 18,200. The new targets imply more than 10% upside, even after stocks surged in Hong Kong and on the mainland Monday as authorities accelerated a shift toward reducing pandemic curbs.
Morgan Stanley is turning bullish again on Chinese stocks after almost two years, joining a growing chorus of Wall Street banks that are sanguine on the nation’s outlook as it moves to relax Covid-19 measures. “Multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set toward reopening warrant an upgrade,” strategists including Laura Wang wrote in a note dated Sunday. “We are at the beginning of a multi-quarter recovery in earnings revisions and valuations.” The brokerage lifted China to overweight from an equal-weight position it had held since January 2021. It raised its end-2023 targets for the MSCI China Index to 70 from 59 and for the Hang Seng Index to 21,200 from 18,200. The new targets imply more than 10% upside, even after stocks surged in Hong Kong and on the mainland Monday as authorities accelerated a shift toward reducing pandemic curbs.
Bottom-line: 사우디 아라비아는 주요 시장인 아시아에 대한 1월 원유 공급가를 벤치마크 보다 2.2달러 높게 공급, 기존에 벤치마크 대비 3.25달러 높게 공급했던 것 대비 더 낮은 가격으로 제시했으며, 트레이더들이 예상했던 수준임. 주요한 원인은 인플레이션과 경제둔화에 따른 수요 감소 우려임. 이 공급가는 지난 3월 이후 최저치를 기록한 것임. 쿠웨이트 또한 지난 금요일 고객들이 원유 수입 확대를 꺼리고 있다고 함. 아람코의 이런 결정은 오펙 회원국이 산출량을 유지하겠다는 발표 이후 나왔으며, 동일한 가격을 제시한 미국과 달리 유럽에 대한 공급가 역시 더 낮췄음.
Saudi Arabia lowered most oil prices for Asia, its main market, in a sign the outlook for demand remains fragile amid continued Covid lockdowns in China. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut its key Arab Light grade for January sales to Asia by $2.20 to $3.25 a barrel above the regional benchmark. The move was in line with refiners and traders’ prediction of a drop of $2.10, according to a Bloomberg survey, and takes the price to its lowest level since March. Brent crude’s up 13% this year to almost $88 a barrel. But it has fallen from more than $120 a barrel in June amid increasing concern among investors about rising inflation and a global economic slowdown. Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and fellow OPEC member Kuwait on Friday said that oil customers were reluctant to boost imports next year. Aramco’s decision came a day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners -- a 23-nation group led by the Saudis and Russia -- opted to keep output steady. The company also reduced most prices for European customers, while leaving those for the US unchanged.
Saudi Arabia lowered most oil prices for Asia, its main market, in a sign the outlook for demand remains fragile amid continued Covid lockdowns in China. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut its key Arab Light grade for January sales to Asia by $2.20 to $3.25 a barrel above the regional benchmark. The move was in line with refiners and traders’ prediction of a drop of $2.10, according to a Bloomberg survey, and takes the price to its lowest level since March. Brent crude’s up 13% this year to almost $88 a barrel. But it has fallen from more than $120 a barrel in June amid increasing concern among investors about rising inflation and a global economic slowdown. Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and fellow OPEC member Kuwait on Friday said that oil customers were reluctant to boost imports next year. Aramco’s decision came a day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners -- a 23-nation group led by the Saudis and Russia -- opted to keep output steady. The company also reduced most prices for European customers, while leaving those for the US unchanged.
Docent: 지난 금요일 발표 된 강건한 고용 데이터에 초기 하락했던 주식시장이 반등한 것에 대해 도슨트 하고자 함. 결론부터 말하자면 금요일 고용 데이터가 수정 발표되었을 때 그다지 훌륭하지 못한 고용시장 환경을 보여줄 것이며, 이는 중앙은행이 정책을 선회하고 더 나아가 금리를 시장 참여자들의 생각보다 더 인하하게 만들 수도 있음. 11월 26만 3천건의 고용이 창출되었고, 실업률은 주기의 최저에 해당하는 3.7%, 시간당 평균임금은 전년 대비 +5.1% 증가하면서 초기 발표 때 주식 및 채권의 낙폭이 컸음. 이처럼 중요한 데이터가 자주 큰 폭으로 수정 발표 된다는 점은 경제지표의 다소 지저분한 비밀인데, 이번 고용 데이터의 경우 응답률이 50% 미만으로 3년래 최저를 기록했음. 이를 과거부터 추적해보면 금요일 발표 된 고용 데이터보다 최종 수정 된 데이터는 훨씬 낮은 일자리 창출을 보여주게 될 것이란 것임.
The jobs market is likely not as robust as recent releases would imply. As data is subsequently revised lower, the Fed may decide to turn course faster and cut rates by more than the market currently expects. On the surface last Friday’s jobs numbers were strong. Payrolls showed 263k jobs created in November, while the unemployment rate remained near its cycle lows at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% y/y. Stocks and bonds initially slumped, before recouping some of their losses. However, November’s payrolls saw an extraordinarily low response rate, which typically means that payrolls will be revised much lower. It’s a dirty secret of economic data that it is often heavily revised after the fact, with payrolls seeing some of the biggest changes. Even more problematic is the biggest revisions tend to happen at turning points, such as recessions. Therefore optically real-time data heading into slowdowns looks much stronger than it really is. The response rate collapsed to under 50%, a thirty-year low. If we look at the response rate for the first release of payrolls (which we got last Friday) versus the response rate for the final release, we see the lower this is, it typically means payrolls is subsequently revised lower. If the relationship in the chart below holds, we should expect payrolls to be revised much lower in the coming months.
The jobs market is likely not as robust as recent releases would imply. As data is subsequently revised lower, the Fed may decide to turn course faster and cut rates by more than the market currently expects. On the surface last Friday’s jobs numbers were strong. Payrolls showed 263k jobs created in November, while the unemployment rate remained near its cycle lows at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% y/y. Stocks and bonds initially slumped, before recouping some of their losses. However, November’s payrolls saw an extraordinarily low response rate, which typically means that payrolls will be revised much lower. It’s a dirty secret of economic data that it is often heavily revised after the fact, with payrolls seeing some of the biggest changes. Even more problematic is the biggest revisions tend to happen at turning points, such as recessions. Therefore optically real-time data heading into slowdowns looks much stronger than it really is. The response rate collapsed to under 50%, a thirty-year low. If we look at the response rate for the first release of payrolls (which we got last Friday) versus the response rate for the final release, we see the lower this is, it typically means payrolls is subsequently revised lower. If the relationship in the chart below holds, we should expect payrolls to be revised much lower in the coming months.
Factory orders and durable goods orders topped expectations, as did the ISM services index, adding to concern the Fed may tilt toward higher-for-longer.