Bottom-line: 다우산업지수가 9월 저점 대비 20% 이상 상승하며 강세장 영역에 진입했고, 채권시장 거래자들은 중앙은행의 최종금리 예상을 5% 밑으로 낮췄음. 파월 의장은 여전한 인플레이션 불확실성에 따라 50bp라는 금리인상폭 축소보다 추가적인 인상이 얼마나 더 필요한지와 해당 금리수준을 어느 정도까지 유지할지가 보다 중요한 문제라 강조함. 이는 긴축주기가 끝나기엔 더 많은 증거를 필요로 한단 것이나 시장은 예상 된 범위의 발언에 긍정적 가격 반응을 함.
A Fed downshift looks imminent, but the tightening cycle is far from over. Jerome Powell signaled the FOMC will hike by 50 bps next month, and said smaller increases are less important than the questions of how much further to go and for how long. Officials need "substantially more evidence" to ensure prices are moderating, the chair added. "The path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain." Bond traders dialed back their peak rate expectations to below 5%. Stocks roared back on Powell's comments, pushing the S&P 500 to a two-month high as it notched its longest monthly winning streak since August 2021. The DJIA entered a bull market, rising 20% from its September low.
A Fed downshift looks imminent, but the tightening cycle is far from over. Jerome Powell signaled the FOMC will hike by 50 bps next month, and said smaller increases are less important than the questions of how much further to go and for how long. Officials need "substantially more evidence" to ensure prices are moderating, the chair added. "The path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain." Bond traders dialed back their peak rate expectations to below 5%. Stocks roared back on Powell's comments, pushing the S&P 500 to a two-month high as it notched its longest monthly winning streak since August 2021. The DJIA entered a bull market, rising 20% from its September low.
Bottom-line: 북경 내 인구 밀집도가 높은 지역에서부터 경미한 증상의 바이러스 환자에 대한 자택격리를 선택할 수 있도록 허용할 수 있다고 함. 비공식적이지만 현재 모든 환자가 시설 격리를 해야 하는 현행에서 완화 된 지침으로 인구 350만명의 차오양 지역에서부터 보다 널리 확대되어 표준이 될 수도 있을 것임.
Beijing will allow some virus-infected people to isolate at home, starting with residents of the city’s most-populous district, a landmark shift that reflects the pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to Covid Zero. Low-risk patients can do home isolation for a week if they choose, people familiar with the plans said, dialing back a nationwide policy that has seen everyone with Covid sent to government quarantine sites regardless of severity, to halt transmission chains. The shift has already begun in Chaoyang district -- home to some 3.5 million people as well as foreign embassies and company offices -- and it will act as an example for other districts to follow, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing an order that’s not yet public.
Beijing will allow some virus-infected people to isolate at home, starting with residents of the city’s most-populous district, a landmark shift that reflects the pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to Covid Zero. Low-risk patients can do home isolation for a week if they choose, people familiar with the plans said, dialing back a nationwide policy that has seen everyone with Covid sent to government quarantine sites regardless of severity, to halt transmission chains. The shift has already begun in Chaoyang district -- home to some 3.5 million people as well as foreign embassies and company offices -- and it will act as an example for other districts to follow, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing an order that’s not yet public.
Bottom-line: 달러 지수는 11월 한달 간 금융위기 이후 최대치로 하락했으며, 12월도 2표준편차 이상의 가격 움직임으로 시작함. 이와 같은 움직임 전에 연기금 펀드, 보험사 펀드 및 기관 펀드가 1년 6개월 만에 처음으로 달러에 대한 순매도 포지션을 구축했었다는 점이 흥미로우며, 최근에 레버리지 펀드도 순매도자로 전환했음. 비록 현재 순매도 포지션 금액이 크다고 할 순 없지만, 추가적으로 달러 약세 방향에 얼마나 더 베팅하게 될지 지속 관찰할 가치가 있음.
The ferocity of the turnaround in the dollar is certainly eye-catching. November saw the biggest monthly drop since the Global Financial Crisis, and December opened with a two-standard deviation drop. Just how far it will fall will depend as much on the change in positioning as it will on momentum and rates differentials. Commitment of traders data show that pension funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors have amassed their largest net-short position on the greenback in nearly a year and a half -- and that’s before the latest declines. What’s interesting now, as the chart by Naomi Tajitsu shows, is that leveraged funds also turned net sellers. Such funds can be highly influential in driving rallies, but are also very fickle when momentum shifts. Their additional risk exposure makes them skittish. As my colleague, Cameron Crise, points out, though, FX contracts come in different dollar values -- and at -$3 billion, the short exposure at the last reading was not huge. Momentum, then, may well be on the bears side, but it’ll be interesting to see how much risk they’re taking on.
The ferocity of the turnaround in the dollar is certainly eye-catching. November saw the biggest monthly drop since the Global Financial Crisis, and December opened with a two-standard deviation drop. Just how far it will fall will depend as much on the change in positioning as it will on momentum and rates differentials. Commitment of traders data show that pension funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors have amassed their largest net-short position on the greenback in nearly a year and a half -- and that’s before the latest declines. What’s interesting now, as the chart by Naomi Tajitsu shows, is that leveraged funds also turned net sellers. Such funds can be highly influential in driving rallies, but are also very fickle when momentum shifts. Their additional risk exposure makes them skittish. As my colleague, Cameron Crise, points out, though, FX contracts come in different dollar values -- and at -$3 billion, the short exposure at the last reading was not huge. Momentum, then, may well be on the bears side, but it’ll be interesting to see how much risk they’re taking on.
Bottom-line: 포커 테이블 위에서 한 판에 모든걸 뒤집으려는 도박사처럼, 주식시장의 강세 베팅이 중첩되고 있음. 펀드 매니저들이 주식 비중을 확대하고, 헤지펀드가 강세에 베팅할 때 신호 중 하나인 옵션을 통한 하방위험을 헤지하고 있음. 중앙은행의 정책 변화 기대는 이러한 기관 투자자 뿐만 아니라 개인 투자자들이 즐겨 매수하는 주식들에도 활력을 더했음. 10월 이후 줄곧 상승한 강한 시장에도 불구 올해 반락하며 무산 된 시장과 다를 수 있다 구분하긴 어렵고, 전문가들은 여전히 이번 상승이 견조함을 가지고 있는지 의구심을 품고 있음. 낙관론자들이 주의해야 할 점은 이번 상승 과정이 8월의 그것과 매우 유사하다는 것임. 그 당시 최근과 같은 현상 이후 8주 간 S&P 500 지수는 15% 하락했음.
Like stuck card players trying to win it all back in one hand, equity bulls are dialing up risk appetites at the tail-end of a brutal year. Active stock managers are adding to positions. Option markets show a trend toward hedging, a sign professional traders are dipping back into equities. Beyond institutional circles, demand for meme stocks springs eternal, with chat-room favorites like AMC Entertainment posting big days. Fueling the momentum, as usual, is speculation about a policy shift at the Federal Reserve -- hopes that took lumps Friday when US hiring and wage growth rose past forecasts. While changes in market leadership may portend a sturdier future for a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 14% since October, it remains hard to distinguish the latest bull run from those that fell apart earlier this year. “You’ve just got a tough market in terms of folks hoping for signs of some reprieve, but realizing that conditions are still relatively tough,” said Lisa Erickson, senior vice president and head of public markets group at US Bank Wealth Management. “We are more skeptical that this rally is durable regardless of which sector or which style like value or growth is leading it.”. The problem for bulls is that the latest revival of risk appetites is a near-perfect rerun of the situation in early August, when active managers and hedge funds dialed up exposure and meme stocks in some cases doubled and tripled. That episode ended in disaster for bulls, with the S&P 500 plummeting more than 15% over eight weeks. Plenty of pundits see the potential for the same fate this time.
Like stuck card players trying to win it all back in one hand, equity bulls are dialing up risk appetites at the tail-end of a brutal year. Active stock managers are adding to positions. Option markets show a trend toward hedging, a sign professional traders are dipping back into equities. Beyond institutional circles, demand for meme stocks springs eternal, with chat-room favorites like AMC Entertainment posting big days. Fueling the momentum, as usual, is speculation about a policy shift at the Federal Reserve -- hopes that took lumps Friday when US hiring and wage growth rose past forecasts. While changes in market leadership may portend a sturdier future for a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 14% since October, it remains hard to distinguish the latest bull run from those that fell apart earlier this year. “You’ve just got a tough market in terms of folks hoping for signs of some reprieve, but realizing that conditions are still relatively tough,” said Lisa Erickson, senior vice president and head of public markets group at US Bank Wealth Management. “We are more skeptical that this rally is durable regardless of which sector or which style like value or growth is leading it.”. The problem for bulls is that the latest revival of risk appetites is a near-perfect rerun of the situation in early August, when active managers and hedge funds dialed up exposure and meme stocks in some cases doubled and tripled. That episode ended in disaster for bulls, with the S&P 500 plummeting more than 15% over eight weeks. Plenty of pundits see the potential for the same fate this time.
CNH has strengthened rapidly early on Monday morning. This is partly on news that Shanghai has eased Covid testing rules, and partly because the psychologically important 7.00 level has been broken.
Bottom-line: 모건스탠리가 2년만에 중국에 대한 투자의견을 상향하며 월가의 중국에 대한 강세론에 합류함. 경제재개를 포함한 다양한 긍정적 이슈들이 투자의견 상향을 뒷받침하며, 중국증시가 수익과 가치 측면에서 모두 회복 국면에 있게 될 것이라 전망함. MSCI 중국 지수 기준 목표를 종전 59 포인트에서 70 포인트로 10% 이상의 상승여력을 가지는 수준까지 상향함.
Morgan Stanley is turning bullish again on Chinese stocks after almost two years, joining a growing chorus of Wall Street banks that are sanguine on the nation’s outlook as it moves to relax Covid-19 measures. “Multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set toward reopening warrant an upgrade,” strategists including Laura Wang wrote in a note dated Sunday. “We are at the beginning of a multi-quarter recovery in earnings revisions and valuations.” The brokerage lifted China to overweight from an equal-weight position it had held since January 2021. It raised its end-2023 targets for the MSCI China Index to 70 from 59 and for the Hang Seng Index to 21,200 from 18,200. The new targets imply more than 10% upside, even after stocks surged in Hong Kong and on the mainland Monday as authorities accelerated a shift toward reducing pandemic curbs.
Morgan Stanley is turning bullish again on Chinese stocks after almost two years, joining a growing chorus of Wall Street banks that are sanguine on the nation’s outlook as it moves to relax Covid-19 measures. “Multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set toward reopening warrant an upgrade,” strategists including Laura Wang wrote in a note dated Sunday. “We are at the beginning of a multi-quarter recovery in earnings revisions and valuations.” The brokerage lifted China to overweight from an equal-weight position it had held since January 2021. It raised its end-2023 targets for the MSCI China Index to 70 from 59 and for the Hang Seng Index to 21,200 from 18,200. The new targets imply more than 10% upside, even after stocks surged in Hong Kong and on the mainland Monday as authorities accelerated a shift toward reducing pandemic curbs.
Bottom-line: 사우디 아라비아는 주요 시장인 아시아에 대한 1월 원유 공급가를 벤치마크 보다 2.2달러 높게 공급, 기존에 벤치마크 대비 3.25달러 높게 공급했던 것 대비 더 낮은 가격으로 제시했으며, 트레이더들이 예상했던 수준임. 주요한 원인은 인플레이션과 경제둔화에 따른 수요 감소 우려임. 이 공급가는 지난 3월 이후 최저치를 기록한 것임. 쿠웨이트 또한 지난 금요일 고객들이 원유 수입 확대를 꺼리고 있다고 함. 아람코의 이런 결정은 오펙 회원국이 산출량을 유지하겠다는 발표 이후 나왔으며, 동일한 가격을 제시한 미국과 달리 유럽에 대한 공급가 역시 더 낮췄음.
Saudi Arabia lowered most oil prices for Asia, its main market, in a sign the outlook for demand remains fragile amid continued Covid lockdowns in China. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut its key Arab Light grade for January sales to Asia by $2.20 to $3.25 a barrel above the regional benchmark. The move was in line with refiners and traders’ prediction of a drop of $2.10, according to a Bloomberg survey, and takes the price to its lowest level since March. Brent crude’s up 13% this year to almost $88 a barrel. But it has fallen from more than $120 a barrel in June amid increasing concern among investors about rising inflation and a global economic slowdown. Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and fellow OPEC member Kuwait on Friday said that oil customers were reluctant to boost imports next year. Aramco’s decision came a day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners -- a 23-nation group led by the Saudis and Russia -- opted to keep output steady. The company also reduced most prices for European customers, while leaving those for the US unchanged.
Saudi Arabia lowered most oil prices for Asia, its main market, in a sign the outlook for demand remains fragile amid continued Covid lockdowns in China. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut its key Arab Light grade for January sales to Asia by $2.20 to $3.25 a barrel above the regional benchmark. The move was in line with refiners and traders’ prediction of a drop of $2.10, according to a Bloomberg survey, and takes the price to its lowest level since March. Brent crude’s up 13% this year to almost $88 a barrel. But it has fallen from more than $120 a barrel in June amid increasing concern among investors about rising inflation and a global economic slowdown. Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and fellow OPEC member Kuwait on Friday said that oil customers were reluctant to boost imports next year. Aramco’s decision came a day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners -- a 23-nation group led by the Saudis and Russia -- opted to keep output steady. The company also reduced most prices for European customers, while leaving those for the US unchanged.
Docent: 지난 금요일 발표 된 강건한 고용 데이터에 초기 하락했던 주식시장이 반등한 것에 대해 도슨트 하고자 함. 결론부터 말하자면 금요일 고용 데이터가 수정 발표되었을 때 그다지 훌륭하지 못한 고용시장 환경을 보여줄 것이며, 이는 중앙은행이 정책을 선회하고 더 나아가 금리를 시장 참여자들의 생각보다 더 인하하게 만들 수도 있음. 11월 26만 3천건의 고용이 창출되었고, 실업률은 주기의 최저에 해당하는 3.7%, 시간당 평균임금은 전년 대비 +5.1% 증가하면서 초기 발표 때 주식 및 채권의 낙폭이 컸음. 이처럼 중요한 데이터가 자주 큰 폭으로 수정 발표 된다는 점은 경제지표의 다소 지저분한 비밀인데, 이번 고용 데이터의 경우 응답률이 50% 미만으로 3년래 최저를 기록했음. 이를 과거부터 추적해보면 금요일 발표 된 고용 데이터보다 최종 수정 된 데이터는 훨씬 낮은 일자리 창출을 보여주게 될 것이란 것임.
The jobs market is likely not as robust as recent releases would imply. As data is subsequently revised lower, the Fed may decide to turn course faster and cut rates by more than the market currently expects. On the surface last Friday’s jobs numbers were strong. Payrolls showed 263k jobs created in November, while the unemployment rate remained near its cycle lows at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% y/y. Stocks and bonds initially slumped, before recouping some of their losses. However, November’s payrolls saw an extraordinarily low response rate, which typically means that payrolls will be revised much lower. It’s a dirty secret of economic data that it is often heavily revised after the fact, with payrolls seeing some of the biggest changes. Even more problematic is the biggest revisions tend to happen at turning points, such as recessions. Therefore optically real-time data heading into slowdowns looks much stronger than it really is. The response rate collapsed to under 50%, a thirty-year low. If we look at the response rate for the first release of payrolls (which we got last Friday) versus the response rate for the final release, we see the lower this is, it typically means payrolls is subsequently revised lower. If the relationship in the chart below holds, we should expect payrolls to be revised much lower in the coming months.
The jobs market is likely not as robust as recent releases would imply. As data is subsequently revised lower, the Fed may decide to turn course faster and cut rates by more than the market currently expects. On the surface last Friday’s jobs numbers were strong. Payrolls showed 263k jobs created in November, while the unemployment rate remained near its cycle lows at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% y/y. Stocks and bonds initially slumped, before recouping some of their losses. However, November’s payrolls saw an extraordinarily low response rate, which typically means that payrolls will be revised much lower. It’s a dirty secret of economic data that it is often heavily revised after the fact, with payrolls seeing some of the biggest changes. Even more problematic is the biggest revisions tend to happen at turning points, such as recessions. Therefore optically real-time data heading into slowdowns looks much stronger than it really is. The response rate collapsed to under 50%, a thirty-year low. If we look at the response rate for the first release of payrolls (which we got last Friday) versus the response rate for the final release, we see the lower this is, it typically means payrolls is subsequently revised lower. If the relationship in the chart below holds, we should expect payrolls to be revised much lower in the coming months.
Factory orders and durable goods orders topped expectations, as did the ISM services index, adding to concern the Fed may tilt toward higher-for-longer.
Bottom-line: 공공장소 이용 시 바이러스 음성 검사를 더 이상 필요로 하지 않는다 함.
On Tuesday morning, the capital of Beijing said that negative tests would no longer be needed to enter a range of public venues, following cities from financial center Shanghai to tech hub Shenzhen in dialing back testing requirements as officials seek to meet a more targeted, less onerous Covid playbook.
On Tuesday morning, the capital of Beijing said that negative tests would no longer be needed to enter a range of public venues, following cities from financial center Shanghai to tech hub Shenzhen in dialing back testing requirements as officials seek to meet a more targeted, less onerous Covid playbook.
Bottom-line: 러시아와 우크라이나 전쟁은 한국 방위산업의 수출길을 여는 계기가 되었음. 소련 시대의 재래식 무기에 의존하던 폴란드와 같은 국가들이 더는 신식 무기 시스템에 대응되지 않음을 깨달았기 때문이며, 덕분에 한국의 올해 방위산업 부문 총 수출액은 170억 달러로 작년 72억 달러의 두 배를 훨씬 넘었음. 한국은 다소 희소한 위치의 공급자 역할을 하고 있는데, 상대적으로 편안한 가격대로 팔고 있지만 그것이 본인 국가의 옆에 있는 북한의 재래식 무기를 무력화 시킬 수 있는 최신식의 시스템까지 갖추고 있기 때문임. 미국 또한 중국과 경쟁 속에 유럽으로의 한국 무기 수출을 용인하고 있음.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has opened a door for South Korea’s defense exports, which are on track to more than double this year as buyers seek to replace Soviet-era weaponry with higher tech arms from the Asian country. South Korea’s defense exports totaled about $17 billion as of November this year, up from $7.25 billion a year before. Major buyers include countries that have for decades relied on stockpiles of aging Russian weaponry, like Poland, but have seen that many of those systems are no match for the weapons that arm the US and its allies. South Korea has found itself uniquely positioned in the global arms market with weapons that are relatively affordable and meant to defeat Soviet-based conventional systems used by its neighbor North Korea. Meanwhile, Washington seems to be giving the green light to ally Seoul to sell to states in places like eastern Europe as US defense contractors race to fill orders for weapons that will go to Kyiv and Taipei, which is staring down threats from China.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has opened a door for South Korea’s defense exports, which are on track to more than double this year as buyers seek to replace Soviet-era weaponry with higher tech arms from the Asian country. South Korea’s defense exports totaled about $17 billion as of November this year, up from $7.25 billion a year before. Major buyers include countries that have for decades relied on stockpiles of aging Russian weaponry, like Poland, but have seen that many of those systems are no match for the weapons that arm the US and its allies. South Korea has found itself uniquely positioned in the global arms market with weapons that are relatively affordable and meant to defeat Soviet-based conventional systems used by its neighbor North Korea. Meanwhile, Washington seems to be giving the green light to ally Seoul to sell to states in places like eastern Europe as US defense contractors race to fill orders for weapons that will go to Kyiv and Taipei, which is staring down threats from China.
Bottom-line: 레고랜드의 2,050억원에 달하는 채무불이행이 1,690조원에 달하는 한국 신용시장이 금융위기 이후 최악의 붕괴를 겪게 만든 시작이 되기 전까진, 도심에서 멀리 떨어져 기차로 몇시간을 가야하는 이곳이 인플레이션과 금융안정을 위한 사투에서 전형이 될지 누구도 몰랐을 것임. 또한 IMF에서도 상대적으로 안정적인 금융환경에 있다고 평가했던 한국조차도 이런 신용위험의 확산에 취약할 수 있단 사실을 드러냈음. 레고랜드 사태는 신용시장의 첫번째 중요한 신호였고, 이후 단기 신용시장의 금리가 급격히 상승함. BIS에서 오랜 기간 근무한 윌리엄 화이트는 이런 한국 시장을 광산의 카나리아 같은 역할이라고 칭했는데, 오랜 기간 쌓여 온 레버리지와 무분별한 금융행태들이 이번 긴축 주기에서 피하려고 애썼던 최악의 사태를 마주보고 있게 되었다고 함. 단기 금리 급등에 따라 국가가 이를 안정시키기 위해 자금을 투입하면서 최악의 붕괴는 막았지만, 여전히 금리는 14년래 최고치에 머물고 있음. 금융위기 이전에도 한국은 이와 같은 수순을 밟았는데, 가계부채가 증가하고 아파트 가격이 하락했었음. 이웃하고 있는 중국은 이미 종전에 없었던 부동산 위기를 경험하고 있음.
Sitting in a lake teeming with wildlife, several hours by train from Seoul, Korea’s Legoland is an unlikely poster child for the global struggle to fight inflation while maintaining financial stability. But a default on 205 billion won ($155 million) worth of debt by the theme park’s developer triggered the worst meltdown in South Korea’s 1,690 trillion won credit market since the global financial crisis. And as interest-rate hikes batter real estate markets around the world, it’s a reminder that even relatively safer financial systems like Korea’s — labeled “resilient” earlier this year by the International Monetary Fund — face threats of contagion. Korea’s central bank embarked in August last year on one of the earliest rate-hike cycles in the world, and is still battling inflation that at one point reached the highest level in more than two decades. The default by Legoland’s developer was the first major sign of trouble in the local debt market. The shock sent short-term credit yields soaring. Korea “is absolutely a canary in the mine shaft,” said William White, a former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, who for decades has stressed the dangers of super-low interest rates. Countries “tightening after such a long period of inviting leverage and imprudent financial behavior — you could potentially trigger the crisis that you’ve been trying to avoid.”. As short-term credit yields skyrocketed, authorities in Seoul pledged billions of dollars in support for financial markets. While that’s helped staunch the meltdown, yields in the short-term money market remain near 14-year highs. Even before this, Korea had the building blocks of a full-blown crisis: There’s been a run-up in household indebtedness and prices for apartments declined. Such developments preceded the US subprime crisis in 2007. And close to Korea, China has been stung in the past two years by an unprecedented property debt crisis, as defaults surge to a record.
Sitting in a lake teeming with wildlife, several hours by train from Seoul, Korea’s Legoland is an unlikely poster child for the global struggle to fight inflation while maintaining financial stability. But a default on 205 billion won ($155 million) worth of debt by the theme park’s developer triggered the worst meltdown in South Korea’s 1,690 trillion won credit market since the global financial crisis. And as interest-rate hikes batter real estate markets around the world, it’s a reminder that even relatively safer financial systems like Korea’s — labeled “resilient” earlier this year by the International Monetary Fund — face threats of contagion. Korea’s central bank embarked in August last year on one of the earliest rate-hike cycles in the world, and is still battling inflation that at one point reached the highest level in more than two decades. The default by Legoland’s developer was the first major sign of trouble in the local debt market. The shock sent short-term credit yields soaring. Korea “is absolutely a canary in the mine shaft,” said William White, a former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, who for decades has stressed the dangers of super-low interest rates. Countries “tightening after such a long period of inviting leverage and imprudent financial behavior — you could potentially trigger the crisis that you’ve been trying to avoid.”. As short-term credit yields skyrocketed, authorities in Seoul pledged billions of dollars in support for financial markets. While that’s helped staunch the meltdown, yields in the short-term money market remain near 14-year highs. Even before this, Korea had the building blocks of a full-blown crisis: There’s been a run-up in household indebtedness and prices for apartments declined. Such developments preceded the US subprime crisis in 2007. And close to Korea, China has been stung in the past two years by an unprecedented property debt crisis, as defaults surge to a record.