Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 20년 전 BRICs라는 개념을 정의했고, 이번에는 향후 50년의 경제를 전망하는 자료를 작성함. 이 자료는 다음의 내용을 특징적으로 강조하고 있는데, i) 인구 성장의 둔화로 인한 노동인구 감소에 따른 성장률 저하가 발생하면서, 전세계 성장률은 연 평균 3% 이하로 떨어지게 될 것, ii) 아시아 경제가 전세계 경제를 주도하는 현재의 모습은 계속 강화되면서 2050년 세계 5대 경제대국은 중국, 미국, 인도, 인도네시아 순서가 될 것임. iii) 다른 경제국과 별개의 독립적 성장을 보인 미국 예외주의, 그것이 또 다시 반복될 것 같지는 않음. iv) 지난 시간의 성장 덕분에 국가들 간 불평등은 감소할 것이지만, 국내 내부의 불평등은 되려 높아질 것임.
Two decades since we first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, we are updating and expanding those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075. We identify four major themes for the global economy. Theme #1: Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth. Our projections imply that global growth will average a little under 3% per year over the next ten years and will be on a gradually declining path, primarily reflecting slower labour force growth. Global population growth has halved over the past 50 years, from 2% per year to less than 1%, and is expected to fall to close to zero by 2075. Theme #2: EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth. Our projections imply that the world's five largest economies in 2050 (measured in real USD) will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany (with Indonesia displacing Brazil and Russia among the largest EMs). By 2075, with the appropriate policies and institutions, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could be among the world's largest economies. Theme #3: A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated. The US's relative performance has been stronger than expected over the past decade. However, history suggests it is unlikely to repeat this over the next decade. US potential growth remains significantly lower than that of large EM economies, and we expect some of the US Dollar’s exceptional strength of recent years to be unwound over the next 10 years. Theme #4: Less global inequality, more local inequality. Twenty years of EM convergence has resulted in a more equal distribution of global incomes. However, while income inequality between countries has fallen, income inequality within countries has risen. This poses a major challenge to the future of globalisation.
Two decades since we first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, we are updating and expanding those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075. We identify four major themes for the global economy. Theme #1: Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth. Our projections imply that global growth will average a little under 3% per year over the next ten years and will be on a gradually declining path, primarily reflecting slower labour force growth. Global population growth has halved over the past 50 years, from 2% per year to less than 1%, and is expected to fall to close to zero by 2075. Theme #2: EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth. Our projections imply that the world's five largest economies in 2050 (measured in real USD) will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany (with Indonesia displacing Brazil and Russia among the largest EMs). By 2075, with the appropriate policies and institutions, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could be among the world's largest economies. Theme #3: A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated. The US's relative performance has been stronger than expected over the past decade. However, history suggests it is unlikely to repeat this over the next decade. US potential growth remains significantly lower than that of large EM economies, and we expect some of the US Dollar’s exceptional strength of recent years to be unwound over the next 10 years. Theme #4: Less global inequality, more local inequality. Twenty years of EM convergence has resulted in a more equal distribution of global incomes. However, while income inequality between countries has fallen, income inequality within countries has risen. This poses a major challenge to the future of globalisation.
Bottom-line: 신규 벤처 캐피탈 투자가 20년래 최저치로 감소함. 금리가 상승하고 거시경제 환경이 불확실할 뿐 아니라 유통시장 거래 또한 위축되면서 나타난 현상으로, 조사기관에 따르면 올해 11개월 간 신규 투자 된 금액은 2,860억 달러로 전년 대비 -42% 감소, 이는 닷컴붕괴나 금융위기 때 감소폭을 넘어서는 것임. 10년 넘게 투자를 지속 확대 한 벤처 캐피탈들은 높은 금리로 인한 자본비용, 기술기업의 성장에 대한 회의론이 대두되면서 미국과 중국 양대 시장에서 각각 -45%, -50%의 전년 대비 투자액 감소를 보였음. 업계 관계자는 조류가 변하고 있으며, 큰 폭의 투자 감소가 이어질 것으로 전망했음.
Venture capital investments are on track for the sharpest drop in more than two decades this year, surpassing the declines of the dot-com crash and the financial crisis amid rising interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties and a public market downturn. The value of new VC deals globally is down 42% in the first 11 months of this year compared to last, to $286 billion, according to research firm Preqin. That’s the deepest slump the researchers have recorded yet, surpassing the nadirs of the early 2000s and the 34% collapse after the 2008 financial crisis. Venture capitalists, who ratcheted up spending over the last decade, are pulling back after rising interest rates put a premium on capital and challenged the tech industry’s growth-at-all-costs mindset. Deal activity dropped sharply in the two biggest venture markets, with declines in aggregate deal value of 50% in China and 45% in the US so far this year. “The tides are changing,” said Evan Thorpe, principal at SixThirty Ventures, a US firm that invests globally in early-stage startups. “We’re seeing a big comedown from the peaks of last year.”
Venture capital investments are on track for the sharpest drop in more than two decades this year, surpassing the declines of the dot-com crash and the financial crisis amid rising interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties and a public market downturn. The value of new VC deals globally is down 42% in the first 11 months of this year compared to last, to $286 billion, according to research firm Preqin. That’s the deepest slump the researchers have recorded yet, surpassing the nadirs of the early 2000s and the 34% collapse after the 2008 financial crisis. Venture capitalists, who ratcheted up spending over the last decade, are pulling back after rising interest rates put a premium on capital and challenged the tech industry’s growth-at-all-costs mindset. Deal activity dropped sharply in the two biggest venture markets, with declines in aggregate deal value of 50% in China and 45% in the US so far this year. “The tides are changing,” said Evan Thorpe, principal at SixThirty Ventures, a US firm that invests globally in early-stage startups. “We’re seeing a big comedown from the peaks of last year.”
Bottom-line: 11월 미국 전역의 중고차 가격이 하락, 중고차 가격을 추적하는 지수 또한 전년 대비 14.2% 하락하며 이 지수는 현재 2021년 8월 이후 최저치를 기록하게 됨. 대확산 시기 반도체 부족과 공급망 병목을 시작으료 신차 및 중고차 가격이 상승했는데, 중앙은행이 40년래 최고치를 기록 중인 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 강력한 통화정책을 시행하면서, 이제는 경기둔화 우려에 따른 구매 축소로 재고가 증가하며 가격이 하락하고 있음. 온라인 중고차 거래업체인 카바나는 재무위기에 봉착하면서 수요일에만 47% 가까운 주가 하락(종가 기준 -42.92%)을 보임.
Used-car prices across the US fell again in November, as a sluggish economy and rising inventories continue to put pressure on rental companies and automotive retailers. The widely watched Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index last month was down 14.2% from a year ago, while unadjusted used-car prices tumbled 12.4% in that span, the automotive auctioneer said Wednesday. The index fell to the lowest level since August 2021 as used-car sales declined 10% in November. Used-car prices have been plunging as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to slow the highest inflation in 40 years. Earlier in the pandemic, new- and used-car prices soared amid semiconductor shortages and other supply-chain bottlenecks. But as those broke, inventories began to rise, especially on used-car lots, sending prices and profits sharply lower at rental companies and car dealers, including CarMax Inc and Carvana Co. Carvana’s stock fell as much as 47% Wednesday after Bloomberg reported its creditors had banded together to work with the company on a debt restructuring.
Used-car prices across the US fell again in November, as a sluggish economy and rising inventories continue to put pressure on rental companies and automotive retailers. The widely watched Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index last month was down 14.2% from a year ago, while unadjusted used-car prices tumbled 12.4% in that span, the automotive auctioneer said Wednesday. The index fell to the lowest level since August 2021 as used-car sales declined 10% in November. Used-car prices have been plunging as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to slow the highest inflation in 40 years. Earlier in the pandemic, new- and used-car prices soared amid semiconductor shortages and other supply-chain bottlenecks. But as those broke, inventories began to rise, especially on used-car lots, sending prices and profits sharply lower at rental companies and car dealers, including CarMax Inc and Carvana Co. Carvana’s stock fell as much as 47% Wednesday after Bloomberg reported its creditors had banded together to work with the company on a debt restructuring.
We are getting greater certainty on China’s reopening path and financial conditions are easing faster and earlier than we anticipated in our base case. Both these factors boost our confidence that Asia is set for growth outperformance in 2023.
- Morgan Stanley
- Morgan Stanley
Following the Covid "20 measures" rolled out on 11 November, this afternoon (7 December) the government unveiled new "10 measures" to further loosen its Covid policies. In our view, the "10 measures" further pave the way to an eventual exit from the zero-Covid policy. At a following State Council press conference on Covid control, top health officials mentioned "we are close to the moment to return to normalcy", but more medical preparations are still required. China is currently in a tug-of-war between a worsening Covid situation and increased reopening expectations, and recent high-frequency data bode poorly for activity growth in November-December. In our recent scenario analysis, an earlier-than-expected reopening would add more downward pressure to near-term growth but moderate upside risk to our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast.
- Goldman Sachs
- Goldman Sachs
Bottom-line: S&P 500 지수가 월간 -3.6% 하락하며 금융위기 이후 두번째로 저조한 12월을 보내고 있음. 지수의 위치는 올 한해 주요한 변곡점을 만들었던 3,900 포인트를 마주하고 있음.
The S&P 500’s 3.6% loss so far this month is its second-worst start to December since at least the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. The drop has put the benchmark on course for a test of key support at 3900, which may set the tone for US stocks for the remainder of 2022. The level has provided the pivot point for reversals on multiple occasions this year.
The S&P 500’s 3.6% loss so far this month is its second-worst start to December since at least the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. The drop has put the benchmark on course for a test of key support at 3900, which may set the tone for US stocks for the remainder of 2022. The level has provided the pivot point for reversals on multiple occasions this year.
Implication: 15일부터 열리는 비공식 회의인 중앙경제공작회의에서 ‘부동산은 거주의 목적이지 투자의 대상이 아니다.’라는 발언을 완화할 수준의 해당 부문 지원책이 논의되며, 지속적으로 이어 온 디레버리징 정책의 종료를 통해 소비의 활성화를 도모할 것으로 보임. 이는 모두 내년도 중국 경제 성장률에 대한 기대와 규제 완화 기대를 높일 것임.
Chinese authorities may further soften their stance on property policies at its key economic meeting next week after the Communist Party’s top decision-making body said it will seek a turnaround in the economy for 2023, according to people familiar with the matter. The annual Central Economic Work Conference, where policy makers discuss next year’s goals including the gross domestic product target and the budget deficit, will start on Dec. 15, according to people with knowledge of the arrangement, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. Officials plan to play down the significance of “housing is for living, not for speculation,” the people said. That phrase has been consistently used by officials since 2016 to signify the government’s determination to curb speculation in the sector, rein in soaring home prices, contain debt risks and reduce excess supply in lower-tier cities. The authorities will aim to reverse the downward trend in property sector and resume normal operation of the industry, one of the people said. They may also declare the nation’s yearslong campaign to deleverage its property market is completed with the focus for next year on boosting consumer demand, one of the people said. The discussions are ongoing and subject to change, the people said.
Chinese authorities may further soften their stance on property policies at its key economic meeting next week after the Communist Party’s top decision-making body said it will seek a turnaround in the economy for 2023, according to people familiar with the matter. The annual Central Economic Work Conference, where policy makers discuss next year’s goals including the gross domestic product target and the budget deficit, will start on Dec. 15, according to people with knowledge of the arrangement, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. Officials plan to play down the significance of “housing is for living, not for speculation,” the people said. That phrase has been consistently used by officials since 2016 to signify the government’s determination to curb speculation in the sector, rein in soaring home prices, contain debt risks and reduce excess supply in lower-tier cities. The authorities will aim to reverse the downward trend in property sector and resume normal operation of the industry, one of the people said. They may also declare the nation’s yearslong campaign to deleverage its property market is completed with the focus for next year on boosting consumer demand, one of the people said. The discussions are ongoing and subject to change, the people said.
Implication: 중앙은행의 통화정책을 인플레이션 관점에서 평가하면 성공은 아직 멀었지만, 대확산 이후 팽창한 자산가격 측면에서는 놀라울 정도임. i) 3조 달러에 달하던 암호화폐 시장 가치의 2/3 이상이 증발했고, ii) 투자자들이 열광하던 기술주는 최고점에서 -50% 가량 하락했으며, iii) 뜨겁게 달아오르던 부동산 시장이 10년만에 하락 중임. 가장 놀라운 사실은 이 모든게 금융시장을 패닉에 빠지지 않게 하면서 이뤘단 것임.
The Federal Reserve hasn’t had much success so far in wrestling down sky-high inflation, but its monetary tightening campaign is having a major impact in deflating asset bubbles that swelled during the pandemic. The cryptocurrency market — once valued at $3 trillion — has shrunk by more than two-thirds. Investor-favored technology stocks have tumbled by more than 50%. Red-hot housing prices are falling for the first time in 10 years. Most importantly – and surprisingly – all this is occurring without upending the financial system.
The Federal Reserve hasn’t had much success so far in wrestling down sky-high inflation, but its monetary tightening campaign is having a major impact in deflating asset bubbles that swelled during the pandemic. The cryptocurrency market — once valued at $3 trillion — has shrunk by more than two-thirds. Investor-favored technology stocks have tumbled by more than 50%. Red-hot housing prices are falling for the first time in 10 years. Most importantly – and surprisingly – all this is occurring without upending the financial system.
Oh??! 🤔
A combination of consumers who are still able and willing to spend, plus cooling prices for gasoline and some goods, can help support the economy as the Fed aims for a soft landing.
A combination of consumers who are still able and willing to spend, plus cooling prices for gasoline and some goods, can help support the economy as the Fed aims for a soft landing.
Bottom-line: 리커창 총리는 공식석상에서 바이러스 억제정책 변화가 중국의 성장률을 지속 상승 구도로 이끌게 될 것이라 발언함. 제이피모건 또한 경제봉쇄 해제에 따라 내년 중국 경제성장률이 5%에 도달할 것으로 전망함.
China's economic growth will "keep picking up" as officials implement changes to Covid controls, Premier Li Keqiang said at a meeting with the heads of six major global bodies. Beijing will keep the yuan basically stable, and will work with the G-20 to formulate debt restructuring plans for developing nations. China can still achieve GDP growth of up to 5% in 2023 depending its reopening progress, JPMorgan economists wrote.
China's economic growth will "keep picking up" as officials implement changes to Covid controls, Premier Li Keqiang said at a meeting with the heads of six major global bodies. Beijing will keep the yuan basically stable, and will work with the G-20 to formulate debt restructuring plans for developing nations. China can still achieve GDP growth of up to 5% in 2023 depending its reopening progress, JPMorgan economists wrote.
Bottom-line: 미국 투자등급 회사채 펀드에서 15주간 연속으로 480억 달러의 대규모 자금이탈 이후 지난 주 처음으로 12억 달러의 자금이 유입 됨. 11월 2020년 4월 이후 가장 높은 수익 조건에 있었단 것을 감안하면 이런 자금 유입은 합리적이며, 중앙은행이 인플레이션 통제에 성공적 모습을 보일 경우 추가로 유입 될 것임. 다만, 금리 압박이 줄어들더라도 회사채 입장에서는 경기둔화라는 장애물을 여전히 마주하고 있음.
After 15 weeks of heavy outflows, US investment-grade corporate bond funds have finally drawn in some cash. That’s good news for a market facing significant macro tests and should continue -- as long as returns stay positive. Investors added $1.2 billion to high-grade funds in the week ended Dec. 7, according to Refinitiv Lipper, following a near-$48 billion exodus in the preceding 15-week period. That makes sense given the best returns since April 2020 last month. Money chases success and the outlook for flows will depend on continued gains for an asset class boosted by hopes that the Fed’s winning its war on inflation. But even if rates pressure eases, the asset class still faces significant challenges from a slowdown in the US economy.
After 15 weeks of heavy outflows, US investment-grade corporate bond funds have finally drawn in some cash. That’s good news for a market facing significant macro tests and should continue -- as long as returns stay positive. Investors added $1.2 billion to high-grade funds in the week ended Dec. 7, according to Refinitiv Lipper, following a near-$48 billion exodus in the preceding 15-week period. That makes sense given the best returns since April 2020 last month. Money chases success and the outlook for flows will depend on continued gains for an asset class boosted by hopes that the Fed’s winning its war on inflation. But even if rates pressure eases, the asset class still faces significant challenges from a slowdown in the US economy.
Bottom-line: 블랙락, 골드만삭스, 아문디를 포함한 자산운용사 펀드매니저 134명을 대상으로 한 블룸버그의 설문에 따르면, 전쟁과 인플레이션, 중앙은행의 금리인상으로 금융위기 이후 최악의 손실을 기록 한 올해와 달리 내년 주식시장은 10%대 상승을 보일 것으로 응답자의 71%가 답함. 다만, 응답자의 48%와 45%가 각각 높은 인플레이션이나 심각한 경기침체를 우려 요소로 꼽았으며, 대부분 내년 초 새로운 저점을 갱신하고 하반기에 집중적으로 상승하여 10% 초반의 수익률을 기록할 것으로 보았음.
Some of the world's biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, which would bring relief after global equities suffered their worst loss since 2008. Amid recent optimism that inflation has peaked — and that the Federal Reserve could soon start to change its tone— 71% of respondents in a Bloomberg News survey expect equities to rise, versus 19% forecasting declines. For those seeing gains, the average response was a 10% return. The informal survey of 134 fund managers incorporates the views of major investors including BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Amundi SA. It provides an insight into the big themes and hurdles they expect to be grappling with in 2023 after inflation, the war in Ukraine and hawkish central banks battered equity returns this year. The stock market could be derailed again by stubbornly high inflation or a deep recession, however. Those are the top worries for the upcoming year, cited by 48% and 45% of participants, respectively. Stocks could also reach new lows early in 2023, with many seeing gains skewed to the second half.
Some of the world's biggest investors predict that stocks will see low double-digit gains next year, which would bring relief after global equities suffered their worst loss since 2008. Amid recent optimism that inflation has peaked — and that the Federal Reserve could soon start to change its tone— 71% of respondents in a Bloomberg News survey expect equities to rise, versus 19% forecasting declines. For those seeing gains, the average response was a 10% return. The informal survey of 134 fund managers incorporates the views of major investors including BlackRock Inc., Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Amundi SA. It provides an insight into the big themes and hurdles they expect to be grappling with in 2023 after inflation, the war in Ukraine and hawkish central banks battered equity returns this year. The stock market could be derailed again by stubbornly high inflation or a deep recession, however. Those are the top worries for the upcoming year, cited by 48% and 45% of participants, respectively. Stocks could also reach new lows early in 2023, with many seeing gains skewed to the second half.