Docent: 지난 금요일 발표 된 강건한 고용 데이터에 초기 하락했던 주식시장이 반등한 것에 대해 도슨트 하고자 함. 결론부터 말하자면 금요일 고용 데이터가 수정 발표되었을 때 그다지 훌륭하지 못한 고용시장 환경을 보여줄 것이며, 이는 중앙은행이 정책을 선회하고 더 나아가 금리를 시장 참여자들의 생각보다 더 인하하게 만들 수도 있음. 11월 26만 3천건의 고용이 창출되었고, 실업률은 주기의 최저에 해당하는 3.7%, 시간당 평균임금은 전년 대비 +5.1% 증가하면서 초기 발표 때 주식 및 채권의 낙폭이 컸음. 이처럼 중요한 데이터가 자주 큰 폭으로 수정 발표 된다는 점은 경제지표의 다소 지저분한 비밀인데, 이번 고용 데이터의 경우 응답률이 50% 미만으로 3년래 최저를 기록했음. 이를 과거부터 추적해보면 금요일 발표 된 고용 데이터보다 최종 수정 된 데이터는 훨씬 낮은 일자리 창출을 보여주게 될 것이란 것임.
The jobs market is likely not as robust as recent releases would imply. As data is subsequently revised lower, the Fed may decide to turn course faster and cut rates by more than the market currently expects. On the surface last Friday’s jobs numbers were strong. Payrolls showed 263k jobs created in November, while the unemployment rate remained near its cycle lows at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% y/y. Stocks and bonds initially slumped, before recouping some of their losses. However, November’s payrolls saw an extraordinarily low response rate, which typically means that payrolls will be revised much lower. It’s a dirty secret of economic data that it is often heavily revised after the fact, with payrolls seeing some of the biggest changes. Even more problematic is the biggest revisions tend to happen at turning points, such as recessions. Therefore optically real-time data heading into slowdowns looks much stronger than it really is. The response rate collapsed to under 50%, a thirty-year low. If we look at the response rate for the first release of payrolls (which we got last Friday) versus the response rate for the final release, we see the lower this is, it typically means payrolls is subsequently revised lower. If the relationship in the chart below holds, we should expect payrolls to be revised much lower in the coming months.
The jobs market is likely not as robust as recent releases would imply. As data is subsequently revised lower, the Fed may decide to turn course faster and cut rates by more than the market currently expects. On the surface last Friday’s jobs numbers were strong. Payrolls showed 263k jobs created in November, while the unemployment rate remained near its cycle lows at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% y/y. Stocks and bonds initially slumped, before recouping some of their losses. However, November’s payrolls saw an extraordinarily low response rate, which typically means that payrolls will be revised much lower. It’s a dirty secret of economic data that it is often heavily revised after the fact, with payrolls seeing some of the biggest changes. Even more problematic is the biggest revisions tend to happen at turning points, such as recessions. Therefore optically real-time data heading into slowdowns looks much stronger than it really is. The response rate collapsed to under 50%, a thirty-year low. If we look at the response rate for the first release of payrolls (which we got last Friday) versus the response rate for the final release, we see the lower this is, it typically means payrolls is subsequently revised lower. If the relationship in the chart below holds, we should expect payrolls to be revised much lower in the coming months.
Factory orders and durable goods orders topped expectations, as did the ISM services index, adding to concern the Fed may tilt toward higher-for-longer.
Bottom-line: 공공장소 이용 시 바이러스 음성 검사를 더 이상 필요로 하지 않는다 함.
On Tuesday morning, the capital of Beijing said that negative tests would no longer be needed to enter a range of public venues, following cities from financial center Shanghai to tech hub Shenzhen in dialing back testing requirements as officials seek to meet a more targeted, less onerous Covid playbook.
On Tuesday morning, the capital of Beijing said that negative tests would no longer be needed to enter a range of public venues, following cities from financial center Shanghai to tech hub Shenzhen in dialing back testing requirements as officials seek to meet a more targeted, less onerous Covid playbook.
Bottom-line: 러시아와 우크라이나 전쟁은 한국 방위산업의 수출길을 여는 계기가 되었음. 소련 시대의 재래식 무기에 의존하던 폴란드와 같은 국가들이 더는 신식 무기 시스템에 대응되지 않음을 깨달았기 때문이며, 덕분에 한국의 올해 방위산업 부문 총 수출액은 170억 달러로 작년 72억 달러의 두 배를 훨씬 넘었음. 한국은 다소 희소한 위치의 공급자 역할을 하고 있는데, 상대적으로 편안한 가격대로 팔고 있지만 그것이 본인 국가의 옆에 있는 북한의 재래식 무기를 무력화 시킬 수 있는 최신식의 시스템까지 갖추고 있기 때문임. 미국 또한 중국과 경쟁 속에 유럽으로의 한국 무기 수출을 용인하고 있음.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has opened a door for South Korea’s defense exports, which are on track to more than double this year as buyers seek to replace Soviet-era weaponry with higher tech arms from the Asian country. South Korea’s defense exports totaled about $17 billion as of November this year, up from $7.25 billion a year before. Major buyers include countries that have for decades relied on stockpiles of aging Russian weaponry, like Poland, but have seen that many of those systems are no match for the weapons that arm the US and its allies. South Korea has found itself uniquely positioned in the global arms market with weapons that are relatively affordable and meant to defeat Soviet-based conventional systems used by its neighbor North Korea. Meanwhile, Washington seems to be giving the green light to ally Seoul to sell to states in places like eastern Europe as US defense contractors race to fill orders for weapons that will go to Kyiv and Taipei, which is staring down threats from China.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has opened a door for South Korea’s defense exports, which are on track to more than double this year as buyers seek to replace Soviet-era weaponry with higher tech arms from the Asian country. South Korea’s defense exports totaled about $17 billion as of November this year, up from $7.25 billion a year before. Major buyers include countries that have for decades relied on stockpiles of aging Russian weaponry, like Poland, but have seen that many of those systems are no match for the weapons that arm the US and its allies. South Korea has found itself uniquely positioned in the global arms market with weapons that are relatively affordable and meant to defeat Soviet-based conventional systems used by its neighbor North Korea. Meanwhile, Washington seems to be giving the green light to ally Seoul to sell to states in places like eastern Europe as US defense contractors race to fill orders for weapons that will go to Kyiv and Taipei, which is staring down threats from China.
Bottom-line: 레고랜드의 2,050억원에 달하는 채무불이행이 1,690조원에 달하는 한국 신용시장이 금융위기 이후 최악의 붕괴를 겪게 만든 시작이 되기 전까진, 도심에서 멀리 떨어져 기차로 몇시간을 가야하는 이곳이 인플레이션과 금융안정을 위한 사투에서 전형이 될지 누구도 몰랐을 것임. 또한 IMF에서도 상대적으로 안정적인 금융환경에 있다고 평가했던 한국조차도 이런 신용위험의 확산에 취약할 수 있단 사실을 드러냈음. 레고랜드 사태는 신용시장의 첫번째 중요한 신호였고, 이후 단기 신용시장의 금리가 급격히 상승함. BIS에서 오랜 기간 근무한 윌리엄 화이트는 이런 한국 시장을 광산의 카나리아 같은 역할이라고 칭했는데, 오랜 기간 쌓여 온 레버리지와 무분별한 금융행태들이 이번 긴축 주기에서 피하려고 애썼던 최악의 사태를 마주보고 있게 되었다고 함. 단기 금리 급등에 따라 국가가 이를 안정시키기 위해 자금을 투입하면서 최악의 붕괴는 막았지만, 여전히 금리는 14년래 최고치에 머물고 있음. 금융위기 이전에도 한국은 이와 같은 수순을 밟았는데, 가계부채가 증가하고 아파트 가격이 하락했었음. 이웃하고 있는 중국은 이미 종전에 없었던 부동산 위기를 경험하고 있음.
Sitting in a lake teeming with wildlife, several hours by train from Seoul, Korea’s Legoland is an unlikely poster child for the global struggle to fight inflation while maintaining financial stability. But a default on 205 billion won ($155 million) worth of debt by the theme park’s developer triggered the worst meltdown in South Korea’s 1,690 trillion won credit market since the global financial crisis. And as interest-rate hikes batter real estate markets around the world, it’s a reminder that even relatively safer financial systems like Korea’s — labeled “resilient” earlier this year by the International Monetary Fund — face threats of contagion. Korea’s central bank embarked in August last year on one of the earliest rate-hike cycles in the world, and is still battling inflation that at one point reached the highest level in more than two decades. The default by Legoland’s developer was the first major sign of trouble in the local debt market. The shock sent short-term credit yields soaring. Korea “is absolutely a canary in the mine shaft,” said William White, a former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, who for decades has stressed the dangers of super-low interest rates. Countries “tightening after such a long period of inviting leverage and imprudent financial behavior — you could potentially trigger the crisis that you’ve been trying to avoid.”. As short-term credit yields skyrocketed, authorities in Seoul pledged billions of dollars in support for financial markets. While that’s helped staunch the meltdown, yields in the short-term money market remain near 14-year highs. Even before this, Korea had the building blocks of a full-blown crisis: There’s been a run-up in household indebtedness and prices for apartments declined. Such developments preceded the US subprime crisis in 2007. And close to Korea, China has been stung in the past two years by an unprecedented property debt crisis, as defaults surge to a record.
Sitting in a lake teeming with wildlife, several hours by train from Seoul, Korea’s Legoland is an unlikely poster child for the global struggle to fight inflation while maintaining financial stability. But a default on 205 billion won ($155 million) worth of debt by the theme park’s developer triggered the worst meltdown in South Korea’s 1,690 trillion won credit market since the global financial crisis. And as interest-rate hikes batter real estate markets around the world, it’s a reminder that even relatively safer financial systems like Korea’s — labeled “resilient” earlier this year by the International Monetary Fund — face threats of contagion. Korea’s central bank embarked in August last year on one of the earliest rate-hike cycles in the world, and is still battling inflation that at one point reached the highest level in more than two decades. The default by Legoland’s developer was the first major sign of trouble in the local debt market. The shock sent short-term credit yields soaring. Korea “is absolutely a canary in the mine shaft,” said William White, a former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, who for decades has stressed the dangers of super-low interest rates. Countries “tightening after such a long period of inviting leverage and imprudent financial behavior — you could potentially trigger the crisis that you’ve been trying to avoid.”. As short-term credit yields skyrocketed, authorities in Seoul pledged billions of dollars in support for financial markets. While that’s helped staunch the meltdown, yields in the short-term money market remain near 14-year highs. Even before this, Korea had the building blocks of a full-blown crisis: There’s been a run-up in household indebtedness and prices for apartments declined. Such developments preceded the US subprime crisis in 2007. And close to Korea, China has been stung in the past two years by an unprecedented property debt crisis, as defaults surge to a record.
Implication: 중국 정부가 내년 경제성장률 목표치를 5%로 설정할 것으로 관련있는 익명의 소식이 전했음. 이는 상대적으로 높은 성장률이고 달성하기 어려운 목표일 수도 있지만, 이렇게 목표를 설정할 경우 지방정부들이 바이러스 확진자 억제보다 경제 부양에 더욱 힘을 쓰게 되지 않겠냐는 의도가 있음.
Senior Chinese officials are debating an economic growth target for next year of around 5%, according to people familiar with the discussion, as Beijing shifts gears toward bolstering the recovery. Some officials argue that setting a goal at a relatively high level would help local governments shift the focus of their work away from Covid controls to boosting the economy, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. Other officials are concerned a target of around 5% could be too ambitious, they said.
Senior Chinese officials are debating an economic growth target for next year of around 5%, according to people familiar with the discussion, as Beijing shifts gears toward bolstering the recovery. Some officials argue that setting a goal at a relatively high level would help local governments shift the focus of their work away from Covid controls to boosting the economy, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. Other officials are concerned a target of around 5% could be too ambitious, they said.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 20년 전 BRICs라는 개념을 정의했고, 이번에는 향후 50년의 경제를 전망하는 자료를 작성함. 이 자료는 다음의 내용을 특징적으로 강조하고 있는데, i) 인구 성장의 둔화로 인한 노동인구 감소에 따른 성장률 저하가 발생하면서, 전세계 성장률은 연 평균 3% 이하로 떨어지게 될 것, ii) 아시아 경제가 전세계 경제를 주도하는 현재의 모습은 계속 강화되면서 2050년 세계 5대 경제대국은 중국, 미국, 인도, 인도네시아 순서가 될 것임. iii) 다른 경제국과 별개의 독립적 성장을 보인 미국 예외주의, 그것이 또 다시 반복될 것 같지는 않음. iv) 지난 시간의 성장 덕분에 국가들 간 불평등은 감소할 것이지만, 국내 내부의 불평등은 되려 높아질 것임.
Two decades since we first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, we are updating and expanding those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075. We identify four major themes for the global economy. Theme #1: Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth. Our projections imply that global growth will average a little under 3% per year over the next ten years and will be on a gradually declining path, primarily reflecting slower labour force growth. Global population growth has halved over the past 50 years, from 2% per year to less than 1%, and is expected to fall to close to zero by 2075. Theme #2: EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth. Our projections imply that the world's five largest economies in 2050 (measured in real USD) will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany (with Indonesia displacing Brazil and Russia among the largest EMs). By 2075, with the appropriate policies and institutions, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could be among the world's largest economies. Theme #3: A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated. The US's relative performance has been stronger than expected over the past decade. However, history suggests it is unlikely to repeat this over the next decade. US potential growth remains significantly lower than that of large EM economies, and we expect some of the US Dollar’s exceptional strength of recent years to be unwound over the next 10 years. Theme #4: Less global inequality, more local inequality. Twenty years of EM convergence has resulted in a more equal distribution of global incomes. However, while income inequality between countries has fallen, income inequality within countries has risen. This poses a major challenge to the future of globalisation.
Two decades since we first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, we are updating and expanding those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075. We identify four major themes for the global economy. Theme #1: Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth. Our projections imply that global growth will average a little under 3% per year over the next ten years and will be on a gradually declining path, primarily reflecting slower labour force growth. Global population growth has halved over the past 50 years, from 2% per year to less than 1%, and is expected to fall to close to zero by 2075. Theme #2: EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth. Our projections imply that the world's five largest economies in 2050 (measured in real USD) will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany (with Indonesia displacing Brazil and Russia among the largest EMs). By 2075, with the appropriate policies and institutions, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could be among the world's largest economies. Theme #3: A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated. The US's relative performance has been stronger than expected over the past decade. However, history suggests it is unlikely to repeat this over the next decade. US potential growth remains significantly lower than that of large EM economies, and we expect some of the US Dollar’s exceptional strength of recent years to be unwound over the next 10 years. Theme #4: Less global inequality, more local inequality. Twenty years of EM convergence has resulted in a more equal distribution of global incomes. However, while income inequality between countries has fallen, income inequality within countries has risen. This poses a major challenge to the future of globalisation.
Bottom-line: 신규 벤처 캐피탈 투자가 20년래 최저치로 감소함. 금리가 상승하고 거시경제 환경이 불확실할 뿐 아니라 유통시장 거래 또한 위축되면서 나타난 현상으로, 조사기관에 따르면 올해 11개월 간 신규 투자 된 금액은 2,860억 달러로 전년 대비 -42% 감소, 이는 닷컴붕괴나 금융위기 때 감소폭을 넘어서는 것임. 10년 넘게 투자를 지속 확대 한 벤처 캐피탈들은 높은 금리로 인한 자본비용, 기술기업의 성장에 대한 회의론이 대두되면서 미국과 중국 양대 시장에서 각각 -45%, -50%의 전년 대비 투자액 감소를 보였음. 업계 관계자는 조류가 변하고 있으며, 큰 폭의 투자 감소가 이어질 것으로 전망했음.
Venture capital investments are on track for the sharpest drop in more than two decades this year, surpassing the declines of the dot-com crash and the financial crisis amid rising interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties and a public market downturn. The value of new VC deals globally is down 42% in the first 11 months of this year compared to last, to $286 billion, according to research firm Preqin. That’s the deepest slump the researchers have recorded yet, surpassing the nadirs of the early 2000s and the 34% collapse after the 2008 financial crisis. Venture capitalists, who ratcheted up spending over the last decade, are pulling back after rising interest rates put a premium on capital and challenged the tech industry’s growth-at-all-costs mindset. Deal activity dropped sharply in the two biggest venture markets, with declines in aggregate deal value of 50% in China and 45% in the US so far this year. “The tides are changing,” said Evan Thorpe, principal at SixThirty Ventures, a US firm that invests globally in early-stage startups. “We’re seeing a big comedown from the peaks of last year.”
Venture capital investments are on track for the sharpest drop in more than two decades this year, surpassing the declines of the dot-com crash and the financial crisis amid rising interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties and a public market downturn. The value of new VC deals globally is down 42% in the first 11 months of this year compared to last, to $286 billion, according to research firm Preqin. That’s the deepest slump the researchers have recorded yet, surpassing the nadirs of the early 2000s and the 34% collapse after the 2008 financial crisis. Venture capitalists, who ratcheted up spending over the last decade, are pulling back after rising interest rates put a premium on capital and challenged the tech industry’s growth-at-all-costs mindset. Deal activity dropped sharply in the two biggest venture markets, with declines in aggregate deal value of 50% in China and 45% in the US so far this year. “The tides are changing,” said Evan Thorpe, principal at SixThirty Ventures, a US firm that invests globally in early-stage startups. “We’re seeing a big comedown from the peaks of last year.”
Bottom-line: 11월 미국 전역의 중고차 가격이 하락, 중고차 가격을 추적하는 지수 또한 전년 대비 14.2% 하락하며 이 지수는 현재 2021년 8월 이후 최저치를 기록하게 됨. 대확산 시기 반도체 부족과 공급망 병목을 시작으료 신차 및 중고차 가격이 상승했는데, 중앙은행이 40년래 최고치를 기록 중인 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 강력한 통화정책을 시행하면서, 이제는 경기둔화 우려에 따른 구매 축소로 재고가 증가하며 가격이 하락하고 있음. 온라인 중고차 거래업체인 카바나는 재무위기에 봉착하면서 수요일에만 47% 가까운 주가 하락(종가 기준 -42.92%)을 보임.
Used-car prices across the US fell again in November, as a sluggish economy and rising inventories continue to put pressure on rental companies and automotive retailers. The widely watched Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index last month was down 14.2% from a year ago, while unadjusted used-car prices tumbled 12.4% in that span, the automotive auctioneer said Wednesday. The index fell to the lowest level since August 2021 as used-car sales declined 10% in November. Used-car prices have been plunging as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to slow the highest inflation in 40 years. Earlier in the pandemic, new- and used-car prices soared amid semiconductor shortages and other supply-chain bottlenecks. But as those broke, inventories began to rise, especially on used-car lots, sending prices and profits sharply lower at rental companies and car dealers, including CarMax Inc and Carvana Co. Carvana’s stock fell as much as 47% Wednesday after Bloomberg reported its creditors had banded together to work with the company on a debt restructuring.
Used-car prices across the US fell again in November, as a sluggish economy and rising inventories continue to put pressure on rental companies and automotive retailers. The widely watched Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index last month was down 14.2% from a year ago, while unadjusted used-car prices tumbled 12.4% in that span, the automotive auctioneer said Wednesday. The index fell to the lowest level since August 2021 as used-car sales declined 10% in November. Used-car prices have been plunging as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to slow the highest inflation in 40 years. Earlier in the pandemic, new- and used-car prices soared amid semiconductor shortages and other supply-chain bottlenecks. But as those broke, inventories began to rise, especially on used-car lots, sending prices and profits sharply lower at rental companies and car dealers, including CarMax Inc and Carvana Co. Carvana’s stock fell as much as 47% Wednesday after Bloomberg reported its creditors had banded together to work with the company on a debt restructuring.
We are getting greater certainty on China’s reopening path and financial conditions are easing faster and earlier than we anticipated in our base case. Both these factors boost our confidence that Asia is set for growth outperformance in 2023.
- Morgan Stanley
- Morgan Stanley
Following the Covid "20 measures" rolled out on 11 November, this afternoon (7 December) the government unveiled new "10 measures" to further loosen its Covid policies. In our view, the "10 measures" further pave the way to an eventual exit from the zero-Covid policy. At a following State Council press conference on Covid control, top health officials mentioned "we are close to the moment to return to normalcy", but more medical preparations are still required. China is currently in a tug-of-war between a worsening Covid situation and increased reopening expectations, and recent high-frequency data bode poorly for activity growth in November-December. In our recent scenario analysis, an earlier-than-expected reopening would add more downward pressure to near-term growth but moderate upside risk to our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast.
- Goldman Sachs
- Goldman Sachs
Bottom-line: S&P 500 지수가 월간 -3.6% 하락하며 금융위기 이후 두번째로 저조한 12월을 보내고 있음. 지수의 위치는 올 한해 주요한 변곡점을 만들었던 3,900 포인트를 마주하고 있음.
The S&P 500’s 3.6% loss so far this month is its second-worst start to December since at least the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. The drop has put the benchmark on course for a test of key support at 3900, which may set the tone for US stocks for the remainder of 2022. The level has provided the pivot point for reversals on multiple occasions this year.
The S&P 500’s 3.6% loss so far this month is its second-worst start to December since at least the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. The drop has put the benchmark on course for a test of key support at 3900, which may set the tone for US stocks for the remainder of 2022. The level has provided the pivot point for reversals on multiple occasions this year.
Implication: 15일부터 열리는 비공식 회의인 중앙경제공작회의에서 ‘부동산은 거주의 목적이지 투자의 대상이 아니다.’라는 발언을 완화할 수준의 해당 부문 지원책이 논의되며, 지속적으로 이어 온 디레버리징 정책의 종료를 통해 소비의 활성화를 도모할 것으로 보임. 이는 모두 내년도 중국 경제 성장률에 대한 기대와 규제 완화 기대를 높일 것임.
Chinese authorities may further soften their stance on property policies at its key economic meeting next week after the Communist Party’s top decision-making body said it will seek a turnaround in the economy for 2023, according to people familiar with the matter. The annual Central Economic Work Conference, where policy makers discuss next year’s goals including the gross domestic product target and the budget deficit, will start on Dec. 15, according to people with knowledge of the arrangement, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. Officials plan to play down the significance of “housing is for living, not for speculation,” the people said. That phrase has been consistently used by officials since 2016 to signify the government’s determination to curb speculation in the sector, rein in soaring home prices, contain debt risks and reduce excess supply in lower-tier cities. The authorities will aim to reverse the downward trend in property sector and resume normal operation of the industry, one of the people said. They may also declare the nation’s yearslong campaign to deleverage its property market is completed with the focus for next year on boosting consumer demand, one of the people said. The discussions are ongoing and subject to change, the people said.
Chinese authorities may further soften their stance on property policies at its key economic meeting next week after the Communist Party’s top decision-making body said it will seek a turnaround in the economy for 2023, according to people familiar with the matter. The annual Central Economic Work Conference, where policy makers discuss next year’s goals including the gross domestic product target and the budget deficit, will start on Dec. 15, according to people with knowledge of the arrangement, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. Officials plan to play down the significance of “housing is for living, not for speculation,” the people said. That phrase has been consistently used by officials since 2016 to signify the government’s determination to curb speculation in the sector, rein in soaring home prices, contain debt risks and reduce excess supply in lower-tier cities. The authorities will aim to reverse the downward trend in property sector and resume normal operation of the industry, one of the people said. They may also declare the nation’s yearslong campaign to deleverage its property market is completed with the focus for next year on boosting consumer demand, one of the people said. The discussions are ongoing and subject to change, the people said.