Bottom-line: 물가에도 안도감을 가지니 이제 노동시장으로 시각이 옮겨가는데, 임금이 과열에서 벗어나려면 서비스업과 같이 노동력이 부족한 곳에서 공급이 생겨야 하는데, 이 부분을 어떻게 해소해 나갈지는 여전히 의문임.
That’s a very interesting point from Ellen Zentner on the labor market coming back into focus. One issue there is wages, especially for sectors still experiencing worker shortages, such as services. It’s tough to see how we’re going to have a slowdown in wage growth there, unless something drastically changes with the labor supply.
That’s a very interesting point from Ellen Zentner on the labor market coming back into focus. One issue there is wages, especially for sectors still experiencing worker shortages, such as services. It’s tough to see how we’re going to have a slowdown in wage growth there, unless something drastically changes with the labor supply.
Bottom-line: 물가지표가 발표되기 바로 직전에 대량으로 유입 된 국채매수와 관련하여 사전에 정보가 유출 된 것 아니냔 의문에 그런 일은 있을 수 없다고 공식적으로 답변함. 오히려 시장 참여자들이 사소한 움작임에도 과민하게 반응하고 있다고 지적함.
US government officials said they were not aware of any early leaks of closely watched inflation data Tuesday, following a surge of Treasuries buying that took place seconds before the report was released. President Joe Biden’s press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters she was not aware of any leaks coming out of the White House, and suggested observers were reading too much into the market moves. “I can tell you this: There were no leaks from here,” Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “I can tell you definitively, or at least I’m not aware of any leaks.”. “People may be reading a little bit too much into this,” she added. Jean-Pierre described the jump in asset prices as “minor market movements.”
US government officials said they were not aware of any early leaks of closely watched inflation data Tuesday, following a surge of Treasuries buying that took place seconds before the report was released. President Joe Biden’s press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters she was not aware of any leaks coming out of the White House, and suggested observers were reading too much into the market moves. “I can tell you this: There were no leaks from here,” Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “I can tell you definitively, or at least I’m not aware of any leaks.”. “People may be reading a little bit too much into this,” she added. Jean-Pierre described the jump in asset prices as “minor market movements.”
Bottom-line: 모건스탠리는 내년 중국 경제성장률을 기존 5%에서 5.4%로 상향함. 경제재개에 속도를 내고 있을 뿐 아니라 지속적으로 경기를 부양하기 위한 정책을 내놓고 있기 때문에 내년 1분기말까지 경제활동이 올해 6~7월 수준까지 올라올 것이며, 남은 하반기는 바이러스 대확산 이전까지 회복될 것으로 전망했음. 물론 바이러스 확산으로 인해 연 초 생산 및 소비에 영향을 받겠지만, 과거보다 완화 된 관리방침으로 인해 충분히 감당 가능한 영역에 있을 것으로 보았음.
Morgan Stanley economists upgraded their forecast for China’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 on expectations that the rapid reopening from Covid Zero and continued steps to ease policy will boost the economy. The bank raised its projection to 5.4% growth from 5%, expecting that mobility and economic activity will rebound to the levels seen in June and July of this year by the end of the first quarter, economists including Robin Xing wrote in a Tuesday note. They expect a continued recovery to above pre-pandemic levels through the rest of 2023. While economic growth will suffer some near-term pain at the start of the year as Covid infections peak and disrupt production and consumption, risks to the supply chain are likely to be manageable compared to how Covid lockdowns hampered operations, the economists wrote.
Morgan Stanley economists upgraded their forecast for China’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 on expectations that the rapid reopening from Covid Zero and continued steps to ease policy will boost the economy. The bank raised its projection to 5.4% growth from 5%, expecting that mobility and economic activity will rebound to the levels seen in June and July of this year by the end of the first quarter, economists including Robin Xing wrote in a Tuesday note. They expect a continued recovery to above pre-pandemic levels through the rest of 2023. While economic growth will suffer some near-term pain at the start of the year as Covid infections peak and disrupt production and consumption, risks to the supply chain are likely to be manageable compared to how Covid lockdowns hampered operations, the economists wrote.
Bottom-line: 블룸버그가 화요일 보도했던 바이러스 감염 환자 급증에 따른 중앙경제공작회의 연기 결정이 번복 된 것으로 보임. 이유는 불명확하고 회신이 아직 없으나, 예정대로 목요일부터 중앙경제공작회의를 진행할 것으로 알려짐.
Chinese leaders are planning to proceed with a closely watched economic policy meeting in Beijing this week, opting not to postpone the gathering as Covid infections surge across the capital, according to people familiar with the matter. The Central Economic Work Conference is set to start on Thursday, said the people who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Held every December, senior officials use the event to plot out economic policy for the coming year. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday that officials had decided to delay the gathering due to a wave of Covid infections spreading quickly across Beijing. The city’s fever clinics reported 16-fold jump in visits on Sunday versus a week earlier. It wasn’t immediately clear why officials changed tack. The State Council Information Office didn’t immediately respond to a fax seeking comment.
Chinese leaders are planning to proceed with a closely watched economic policy meeting in Beijing this week, opting not to postpone the gathering as Covid infections surge across the capital, according to people familiar with the matter. The Central Economic Work Conference is set to start on Thursday, said the people who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Held every December, senior officials use the event to plot out economic policy for the coming year. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday that officials had decided to delay the gathering due to a wave of Covid infections spreading quickly across Beijing. The city’s fever clinics reported 16-fold jump in visits on Sunday versus a week earlier. It wasn’t immediately clear why officials changed tack. The State Council Information Office didn’t immediately respond to a fax seeking comment.
• 사담
CPI 발표 1분 전 들어왔던 대량의 채권, 지수선물 매수에 오늘도 논란(In 60 Seconds Before CPI Hit, Heavy Trading Drove Mystery Rally)이 많은 것 같습니다.
자본시장이 후진국에서 선진국으로 갈수록 정보라는 기울어진 운동장이 평탄해지는데, 그런 의미에서 어제 미니 나스닥 선물 총 규모(Notional) 기준 2조 7천억(1,320원 원화환산, 발표 직전 매수 계약과 발표 직후 최고점 환산)의 매수, 그리고 곧바로 매도 등은 확대해석치 말라(Too much fuss was being made, as she saw it, over what were just “minor market movements.”)는 발언으로 넘기기 어려운 것 같습니다.
평탄한 운동장이다보니 거래소 근처에 전깃줄의 참새들처럼 달라붙어 알고리즘 고빈도 매매로 주문 호가 집어가는 등으로 버는 미국이니, 이 사건이 어떻게 풀려가는지 지켜보시는 것도 재밌을겁니다.
CPI 발표 1분 전 들어왔던 대량의 채권, 지수선물 매수에 오늘도 논란(In 60 Seconds Before CPI Hit, Heavy Trading Drove Mystery Rally)이 많은 것 같습니다.
자본시장이 후진국에서 선진국으로 갈수록 정보라는 기울어진 운동장이 평탄해지는데, 그런 의미에서 어제 미니 나스닥 선물 총 규모(Notional) 기준 2조 7천억(1,320원 원화환산, 발표 직전 매수 계약과 발표 직후 최고점 환산)의 매수, 그리고 곧바로 매도 등은 확대해석치 말라(Too much fuss was being made, as she saw it, over what were just “minor market movements.”)는 발언으로 넘기기 어려운 것 같습니다.
평탄한 운동장이다보니 거래소 근처에 전깃줄의 참새들처럼 달라붙어 알고리즘 고빈도 매매로 주문 호가 집어가는 등으로 버는 미국이니, 이 사건이 어떻게 풀려가는지 지켜보시는 것도 재밌을겁니다.
Copywriter Series
"a Cocktail of Risks"
자본시장과 관련 된 기사에 종종 등장하는 표현인데, 우리에게 산재한 위험이 다발적임을 세련되게 표현하고, 직관적으로도 와닿는다.
"a Cocktail of Risks"
자본시장과 관련 된 기사에 종종 등장하는 표현인데, 우리에게 산재한 위험이 다발적임을 세련되게 표현하고, 직관적으로도 와닿는다.
Copywriter Series
"Could be the next catastrophe"
희곡에서 비극적인 결말을 일컫는 것이 카타스트로프(catastrophe)인데, 이를 자본시장에서 연속적이고 더욱 커지는 현상을 나타낼 때 사용했다. 우리가 지금까지 본 것보다 더 위험할 수도 있다고 말하는 것보다 시적이지 않은가.
"Could be the next catastrophe"
희곡에서 비극적인 결말을 일컫는 것이 카타스트로프(catastrophe)인데, 이를 자본시장에서 연속적이고 더욱 커지는 현상을 나타낼 때 사용했다. 우리가 지금까지 본 것보다 더 위험할 수도 있다고 말하는 것보다 시적이지 않은가.
Copywriter Series
"Like the Last Kiss"
While it is true that the last hike of a cycle is often like the last kiss in a relationship -- you don’t know it’s the final one as it is happening
중앙은행의 금리인상이 어쩌면 이번이 마지막일 수도 있다는 주장을 펼치면서 사용한 용어다. 마지막 키스, 그것이 마지막이었는지는 그 당시엔 알 수 없다. 마찬가지로, 우리는 모든 사건의 종결이 진정 종결이었음을 지나서야 알 수 있으므로, 얼마나 적절한 비유인가.
"Like the Last Kiss"
While it is true that the last hike of a cycle is often like the last kiss in a relationship -- you don’t know it’s the final one as it is happening
중앙은행의 금리인상이 어쩌면 이번이 마지막일 수도 있다는 주장을 펼치면서 사용한 용어다. 마지막 키스, 그것이 마지막이었는지는 그 당시엔 알 수 없다. 마찬가지로, 우리는 모든 사건의 종결이 진정 종결이었음을 지나서야 알 수 있으므로, 얼마나 적절한 비유인가.
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to a 4.25% to 4.5% target range. Policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1%, according to their median forecast, before being cut to 4.1% in 2024 -- a higher level than previously indicated.
implication: 내년 금리인하를 할 수도 있다는 기대를 지움.
Recall that in September, the median was just barely at 4.6 for 2023. This move in the consensus is good news for Powell, and will likely dispel some concerns about some more dovish members of the FOMC potentially calling for cuts to start next year.
Recall that in September, the median was just barely at 4.6 for 2023. This move in the consensus is good news for Powell, and will likely dispel some concerns about some more dovish members of the FOMC potentially calling for cuts to start next year.
Bottom-line: 새롭게 제시 된 경제전망은 기본적으로 중앙은행이 내년도 경기침체를 예상하고 있음을 암시함. 실업률 1% 포인트 상승과 2~3개 분기 성장률 수축은 파월이 기대하는 연착륙과 달리 경기침체에 해당함.
Looking at the median forecasts for economic growth and the jobless rate, Fed policymakers are basically predicting a recession. A 0.5% gain for GDP in the fourth quarter of next year compared with the current quarter could easily incorporate two or three quarters of contraction. And the jobless rate rising by almost 1 percentage point -- that’s an outlook that is pretty consistent with a recession. So Powell may say they’re still hoping for a softish landing. But basically the Fed is projecting a recession.
Looking at the median forecasts for economic growth and the jobless rate, Fed policymakers are basically predicting a recession. A 0.5% gain for GDP in the fourth quarter of next year compared with the current quarter could easily incorporate two or three quarters of contraction. And the jobless rate rising by almost 1 percentage point -- that’s an outlook that is pretty consistent with a recession. So Powell may say they’re still hoping for a softish landing. But basically the Fed is projecting a recession.
Implication: 11월 성명문은 온화했지만, 기자회견은 강경했음. 반대로 이번에 성명문은 강경했으므로, 결국 기자회견을 지켜보도록 아직 잠들지 말 것.
So, at the November meeting we had a dovish interpretation of the statement and then a pretty hawkish press conference. Today we’ve had a hawkish statement. We’ll see what the press conference holds!
So, at the November meeting we had a dovish interpretation of the statement and then a pretty hawkish press conference. Today we’ve had a hawkish statement. We’ll see what the press conference holds!
Powell: 아직 더 할일이 많이 남아있음.
“We’ve covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening so far are yet to be felt, even so we have more work to do.”
“We’ve covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening so far are yet to be felt, even so we have more work to do.”