Bottom-line: 블룸버그가 화요일 보도했던 바이러스 감염 환자 급증에 따른 중앙경제공작회의 연기 결정이 번복 된 것으로 보임. 이유는 불명확하고 회신이 아직 없으나, 예정대로 목요일부터 중앙경제공작회의를 진행할 것으로 알려짐.
Chinese leaders are planning to proceed with a closely watched economic policy meeting in Beijing this week, opting not to postpone the gathering as Covid infections surge across the capital, according to people familiar with the matter. The Central Economic Work Conference is set to start on Thursday, said the people who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Held every December, senior officials use the event to plot out economic policy for the coming year. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday that officials had decided to delay the gathering due to a wave of Covid infections spreading quickly across Beijing. The city’s fever clinics reported 16-fold jump in visits on Sunday versus a week earlier. It wasn’t immediately clear why officials changed tack. The State Council Information Office didn’t immediately respond to a fax seeking comment.
Chinese leaders are planning to proceed with a closely watched economic policy meeting in Beijing this week, opting not to postpone the gathering as Covid infections surge across the capital, according to people familiar with the matter. The Central Economic Work Conference is set to start on Thursday, said the people who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. Held every December, senior officials use the event to plot out economic policy for the coming year. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday that officials had decided to delay the gathering due to a wave of Covid infections spreading quickly across Beijing. The city’s fever clinics reported 16-fold jump in visits on Sunday versus a week earlier. It wasn’t immediately clear why officials changed tack. The State Council Information Office didn’t immediately respond to a fax seeking comment.
• 사담
CPI 발표 1분 전 들어왔던 대량의 채권, 지수선물 매수에 오늘도 논란(In 60 Seconds Before CPI Hit, Heavy Trading Drove Mystery Rally)이 많은 것 같습니다.
자본시장이 후진국에서 선진국으로 갈수록 정보라는 기울어진 운동장이 평탄해지는데, 그런 의미에서 어제 미니 나스닥 선물 총 규모(Notional) 기준 2조 7천억(1,320원 원화환산, 발표 직전 매수 계약과 발표 직후 최고점 환산)의 매수, 그리고 곧바로 매도 등은 확대해석치 말라(Too much fuss was being made, as she saw it, over what were just “minor market movements.”)는 발언으로 넘기기 어려운 것 같습니다.
평탄한 운동장이다보니 거래소 근처에 전깃줄의 참새들처럼 달라붙어 알고리즘 고빈도 매매로 주문 호가 집어가는 등으로 버는 미국이니, 이 사건이 어떻게 풀려가는지 지켜보시는 것도 재밌을겁니다.
CPI 발표 1분 전 들어왔던 대량의 채권, 지수선물 매수에 오늘도 논란(In 60 Seconds Before CPI Hit, Heavy Trading Drove Mystery Rally)이 많은 것 같습니다.
자본시장이 후진국에서 선진국으로 갈수록 정보라는 기울어진 운동장이 평탄해지는데, 그런 의미에서 어제 미니 나스닥 선물 총 규모(Notional) 기준 2조 7천억(1,320원 원화환산, 발표 직전 매수 계약과 발표 직후 최고점 환산)의 매수, 그리고 곧바로 매도 등은 확대해석치 말라(Too much fuss was being made, as she saw it, over what were just “minor market movements.”)는 발언으로 넘기기 어려운 것 같습니다.
평탄한 운동장이다보니 거래소 근처에 전깃줄의 참새들처럼 달라붙어 알고리즘 고빈도 매매로 주문 호가 집어가는 등으로 버는 미국이니, 이 사건이 어떻게 풀려가는지 지켜보시는 것도 재밌을겁니다.
Copywriter Series
"a Cocktail of Risks"
자본시장과 관련 된 기사에 종종 등장하는 표현인데, 우리에게 산재한 위험이 다발적임을 세련되게 표현하고, 직관적으로도 와닿는다.
"a Cocktail of Risks"
자본시장과 관련 된 기사에 종종 등장하는 표현인데, 우리에게 산재한 위험이 다발적임을 세련되게 표현하고, 직관적으로도 와닿는다.
Copywriter Series
"Could be the next catastrophe"
희곡에서 비극적인 결말을 일컫는 것이 카타스트로프(catastrophe)인데, 이를 자본시장에서 연속적이고 더욱 커지는 현상을 나타낼 때 사용했다. 우리가 지금까지 본 것보다 더 위험할 수도 있다고 말하는 것보다 시적이지 않은가.
"Could be the next catastrophe"
희곡에서 비극적인 결말을 일컫는 것이 카타스트로프(catastrophe)인데, 이를 자본시장에서 연속적이고 더욱 커지는 현상을 나타낼 때 사용했다. 우리가 지금까지 본 것보다 더 위험할 수도 있다고 말하는 것보다 시적이지 않은가.
Copywriter Series
"Like the Last Kiss"
While it is true that the last hike of a cycle is often like the last kiss in a relationship -- you don’t know it’s the final one as it is happening
중앙은행의 금리인상이 어쩌면 이번이 마지막일 수도 있다는 주장을 펼치면서 사용한 용어다. 마지막 키스, 그것이 마지막이었는지는 그 당시엔 알 수 없다. 마찬가지로, 우리는 모든 사건의 종결이 진정 종결이었음을 지나서야 알 수 있으므로, 얼마나 적절한 비유인가.
"Like the Last Kiss"
While it is true that the last hike of a cycle is often like the last kiss in a relationship -- you don’t know it’s the final one as it is happening
중앙은행의 금리인상이 어쩌면 이번이 마지막일 수도 있다는 주장을 펼치면서 사용한 용어다. 마지막 키스, 그것이 마지막이었는지는 그 당시엔 알 수 없다. 마찬가지로, 우리는 모든 사건의 종결이 진정 종결이었음을 지나서야 알 수 있으므로, 얼마나 적절한 비유인가.
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to a 4.25% to 4.5% target range. Policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1%, according to their median forecast, before being cut to 4.1% in 2024 -- a higher level than previously indicated.
implication: 내년 금리인하를 할 수도 있다는 기대를 지움.
Recall that in September, the median was just barely at 4.6 for 2023. This move in the consensus is good news for Powell, and will likely dispel some concerns about some more dovish members of the FOMC potentially calling for cuts to start next year.
Recall that in September, the median was just barely at 4.6 for 2023. This move in the consensus is good news for Powell, and will likely dispel some concerns about some more dovish members of the FOMC potentially calling for cuts to start next year.
Bottom-line: 새롭게 제시 된 경제전망은 기본적으로 중앙은행이 내년도 경기침체를 예상하고 있음을 암시함. 실업률 1% 포인트 상승과 2~3개 분기 성장률 수축은 파월이 기대하는 연착륙과 달리 경기침체에 해당함.
Looking at the median forecasts for economic growth and the jobless rate, Fed policymakers are basically predicting a recession. A 0.5% gain for GDP in the fourth quarter of next year compared with the current quarter could easily incorporate two or three quarters of contraction. And the jobless rate rising by almost 1 percentage point -- that’s an outlook that is pretty consistent with a recession. So Powell may say they’re still hoping for a softish landing. But basically the Fed is projecting a recession.
Looking at the median forecasts for economic growth and the jobless rate, Fed policymakers are basically predicting a recession. A 0.5% gain for GDP in the fourth quarter of next year compared with the current quarter could easily incorporate two or three quarters of contraction. And the jobless rate rising by almost 1 percentage point -- that’s an outlook that is pretty consistent with a recession. So Powell may say they’re still hoping for a softish landing. But basically the Fed is projecting a recession.
Implication: 11월 성명문은 온화했지만, 기자회견은 강경했음. 반대로 이번에 성명문은 강경했으므로, 결국 기자회견을 지켜보도록 아직 잠들지 말 것.
So, at the November meeting we had a dovish interpretation of the statement and then a pretty hawkish press conference. Today we’ve had a hawkish statement. We’ll see what the press conference holds!
So, at the November meeting we had a dovish interpretation of the statement and then a pretty hawkish press conference. Today we’ve had a hawkish statement. We’ll see what the press conference holds!
Powell: 아직 더 할일이 많이 남아있음.
“We’ve covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening so far are yet to be felt, even so we have more work to do.”
“We’ve covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening so far are yet to be felt, even so we have more work to do.”
Powell: 또한, 인플레이션이 진정되고 있다는 확신을 위해서는 더 많은 데이터가 필요함.
Inflation data for October and November show a welcome reduction, but it will take more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a downward path.
Inflation data for October and November show a welcome reduction, but it will take more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a downward path.
Powell: 장기간 높은 물가가 지속 될 경우 물가에 대한 기대 또한 높은 상태에 머무를 위험이 있음.
The longer that high inflation remains, the greater the danger that will become “entrenched” in inflation expectation.
The longer that high inflation remains, the greater the danger that will become “entrenched” in inflation expectation.
Implication: “We don’t want to see stocks rally, guys!”
Powell notes that financial conditions “fluctuate.” But it’s important that they reflect the policy moves the Fed is putting in place to address inflation.
Powell notes that financial conditions “fluctuate.” But it’s important that they reflect the policy moves the Fed is putting in place to address inflation.
Powell: 아직 중앙은행이 해야 할 일은 여전히 남아있음.
“We will stay the course until the job is done.”
“We will stay the course until the job is done.”
Powell: 중앙은행이 다시 한 번 최종정책금리를 올리진 않을 것이라 장담할 수 없음.
Powell says that he can’t say with confidence that the FOMC won’t again move up the peak terminal rate forecast at the next SEP release, which will be in March.
Powell says that he can’t say with confidence that the FOMC won’t again move up the peak terminal rate forecast at the next SEP release, which will be in March.
Powell: 인플레이션이 완화되는데 대한 확신이 없으므로, 데이터에 여전히 의존할 것임. 때문에 다음 금리인상폭이 25bp일지 50bp일지에 대해 당장 이야기할 수 없음.
Powell says “we’ll make the February decision based on the incoming data.” So, no guidance on whether to go by 50 or 25 in February. The Fed needs to be confident inflation is coming down in a sustained way.
Powell says “we’ll make the February decision based on the incoming data.” So, no guidance on whether to go by 50 or 25 in February. The Fed needs to be confident inflation is coming down in a sustained way.