Powell: 또한, 인플레이션이 진정되고 있다는 확신을 위해서는 더 많은 데이터가 필요함.
Inflation data for October and November show a welcome reduction, but it will take more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a downward path.
Inflation data for October and November show a welcome reduction, but it will take more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a downward path.
Powell: 장기간 높은 물가가 지속 될 경우 물가에 대한 기대 또한 높은 상태에 머무를 위험이 있음.
The longer that high inflation remains, the greater the danger that will become “entrenched” in inflation expectation.
The longer that high inflation remains, the greater the danger that will become “entrenched” in inflation expectation.
Implication: “We don’t want to see stocks rally, guys!”
Powell notes that financial conditions “fluctuate.” But it’s important that they reflect the policy moves the Fed is putting in place to address inflation.
Powell notes that financial conditions “fluctuate.” But it’s important that they reflect the policy moves the Fed is putting in place to address inflation.
Powell: 아직 중앙은행이 해야 할 일은 여전히 남아있음.
“We will stay the course until the job is done.”
“We will stay the course until the job is done.”
Powell: 중앙은행이 다시 한 번 최종정책금리를 올리진 않을 것이라 장담할 수 없음.
Powell says that he can’t say with confidence that the FOMC won’t again move up the peak terminal rate forecast at the next SEP release, which will be in March.
Powell says that he can’t say with confidence that the FOMC won’t again move up the peak terminal rate forecast at the next SEP release, which will be in March.
Powell: 인플레이션이 완화되는데 대한 확신이 없으므로, 데이터에 여전히 의존할 것임. 때문에 다음 금리인상폭이 25bp일지 50bp일지에 대해 당장 이야기할 수 없음.
Powell says “we’ll make the February decision based on the incoming data.” So, no guidance on whether to go by 50 or 25 in February. The Fed needs to be confident inflation is coming down in a sustained way.
Powell says “we’ll make the February decision based on the incoming data.” So, no guidance on whether to go by 50 or 25 in February. The Fed needs to be confident inflation is coming down in a sustained way.
Powell: 중앙은행 위원들의 금리전망에는 어제 발표 된 물가 또한 반영한 것이라고 함.
The SEP reflects data that comes out during the meeting. The November CPI data came out yesterday, on the first day of the FOMC’s meeting. Powell indicates that participant forecasts reflect that data.
The SEP reflects data that comes out during the meeting. The November CPI data came out yesterday, on the first day of the FOMC’s meeting. Powell indicates that participant forecasts reflect that data.
Implication: 인플레이션 목표치에 도달하여 머무르기 전까지 금리인하는 없을 것이라 다시 한 번 강조함.
Asked about market pricing of cuts at the end of 2023, Powell reiterates that they’re not focused on cuts and that the committee won’t do so until its confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way.
Asked about market pricing of cuts at the end of 2023, Powell reiterates that they’re not focused on cuts and that the committee won’t do so until its confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way.
Bottom-line: 미국 국채 10년물 수익률은 점도표 발표 이후 상승했던 몫을 기자회견 동안 다시 하락하여 만회함. 중앙은행의 경로와 달리 시장 참여자는 여전히 내년 금리인하 가능성을 찾고 있음.
The 10-year Treasury yield is now lower on the session and below 3.5%. The market has been erasing dot plot losses since Powell began the Q&A, and bond sentiment is once more challenging the Fed’s hawkish tone and looking for rate cuts before the end of 2023.
The 10-year Treasury yield is now lower on the session and below 3.5%. The market has been erasing dot plot losses since Powell began the Q&A, and bond sentiment is once more challenging the Fed’s hawkish tone and looking for rate cuts before the end of 2023.
Bottom-line: 모건스탠리가 관찰한 중국 주식시장 자금흐름에서 흥미로운 점은 최근 경제재개 기대로 유입 된 자금의 주체는 헤지펀드와 상장지수펀드임. 공모주식형 펀드의 경우 여전히 중국이나 아시아에서 고객들이 환매 중이라 상대적으로 견고한 자금이라 할 수 있는 흐름은 아직이라 할 수 있음. 그들이 유입되기까지는 다소 시간이 걸릴 것으로 예상함.
Some interesting color from Morgan Stanley’s Asia quant team. They say most of the reopening-triggered inflows into Chinese A-shares (mainland-listed stocks) has come from hedge funds or passive funds like ETFs. The long-only sticky money has yet to join in because, according to Morgan Stanley, their clients are still pulling cash from Asia or EM products. So when could China’s A-share market get another, inflow-driven leg up? Morgan Stanley says this may take a while.
Some interesting color from Morgan Stanley’s Asia quant team. They say most of the reopening-triggered inflows into Chinese A-shares (mainland-listed stocks) has come from hedge funds or passive funds like ETFs. The long-only sticky money has yet to join in because, according to Morgan Stanley, their clients are still pulling cash from Asia or EM products. So when could China’s A-share market get another, inflow-driven leg up? Morgan Stanley says this may take a while.
Docent: 시장에서 반영하고 있던 수준보다 높은 점도표에도 왜 채권 시장은 이토록 낙관적 반응(국채 수익률 하락)을 보였는지에 대한 도슨트임. 채권 투자자들은 점도표에서 제시하는 최종정책금리보다 이를 도출하게 된 인플레이션의 방향과 속도에 더욱 주목하는 것임. 즉, 내년 인플레이션이 빠르게 냉각되면서 종국적으로 2023년 6월 3% 미만에 도달할 것으로 봤음. 이런 시장 가격 반영에 대해 너무 낙관적이지 않냐 생각할 수도 있지만, 인플레이션에 보다 민감한 스왑 계약에서도 마찬가지 모습을 보이고 있음. 만일 채권 투자자들이 예상하는 경로로 물가가 떨어질 경우 5.1%의 최종정책금리는 도달하지 못할 영역이거나, 아주 잠시 머무르는 구간이 될 것임.
There’s some puzzlement at the ease with which Treasuries shrugged off a substantially hawkish Powell and dot plots with a terminal rate above 5%. As my colleagues have noted, investors seem to be looking past the dot plots. That’s likely to go on being the case as long as the market’s inflation expectations remain centered on a very rapid deceleration in CPI growth for the coming year. Even if you decide that breakevens pricing for an average inflation rate of 2.05% in the coming year are too optimistic, inflation swaps are also prepped for a substantial tumble in cost pressures. Swaps, which are usually more aggressive on inflation than breakevens, have also continued to decline. And if you look under the hood of DTCC trades for the instruments you can see that annual inflation is expected to come in below 3% by June 2023 and stabilize. If anything approaching that happens then the Fed either won’t get to 5.1% at all or will end up being a very transitory visitor to such settings.
There’s some puzzlement at the ease with which Treasuries shrugged off a substantially hawkish Powell and dot plots with a terminal rate above 5%. As my colleagues have noted, investors seem to be looking past the dot plots. That’s likely to go on being the case as long as the market’s inflation expectations remain centered on a very rapid deceleration in CPI growth for the coming year. Even if you decide that breakevens pricing for an average inflation rate of 2.05% in the coming year are too optimistic, inflation swaps are also prepped for a substantial tumble in cost pressures. Swaps, which are usually more aggressive on inflation than breakevens, have also continued to decline. And if you look under the hood of DTCC trades for the instruments you can see that annual inflation is expected to come in below 3% by June 2023 and stabilize. If anything approaching that happens then the Fed either won’t get to 5.1% at all or will end up being a very transitory visitor to such settings.
Implication: 중앙은행에 맞서지 말라는 격언은 너무나 유명하지만 투자자들은 적어도 올해 그러지 않음. 중앙은행이 틀렸다고 생각하기 때문인데, 중요한 것은 그들이 정말 실수를 행한게 된다면, 금리를 적게가 아니라 더 많이 올려야 할 것임. 언제나 이 사실을 유념해야 함.
One of the most constant aphorisms is that investors should never fight the Fed. But as 2022 comes to an end, it looks like the conflict remains intense. While I understand the arguments for not taking Jerome Powell seriously, on balance I don’t accept them. If the Fed is going to make a mistake it will be raising rates too much, not too little, and everyone should work on that assumption.
One of the most constant aphorisms is that investors should never fight the Fed. But as 2022 comes to an end, it looks like the conflict remains intense. While I understand the arguments for not taking Jerome Powell seriously, on balance I don’t accept them. If the Fed is going to make a mistake it will be raising rates too much, not too little, and everyone should work on that assumption.