Are We in a Recession Now? Just Look at Discount Retailers. The biggest debate in financial markets is whether the US economy is already in recession, and that’s because the data is decidedly mixed. Inflation is raging, but the jobs market is red hot. Perhaps the answer lies with discount retailers. Even though the benchmark S&P 500 Index is fallen into a broad bear market by tumbling 20.2% this year through Wednesday, Dollar General Corp. has risen 4.58%, Dollar Tree Inc. has surged 18.1% and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. has soared 33.2%. This is a stunning level of outperformance, and reflects the theory that as inflation accelerates, consumers will be forced to trade down to cheaper and lower-quality goods sold by discount retailers. 

함의: 경기침체 임박에 대한 좋은 신호는 할인 업체의 상대성과 우위에서 확인되며, 인플레이션이 가속화 될 때 소비자가 더 싸고 더 낮은 질의 재화를 소비함을 알 수 있음.

SK Hynix Inc. is considering cutting its 2023 capital expenditure by about a quarter to 16 trillion won ($12.2 billion) in response to slower electronics demand than anticipated, people familiar with the matter said. The world’s second largest memory maker is sticking largely with plans to spend about 21 trillion won this year building up DRAM and NAND capacity, the people said. But rising uncertainty over dwindling demand for the chips that go into everything from smartphones to servers has forced a rethink of expansions next year, they said, asking not to be identified talking about undisclosed plans.

함의: 스마트폰에서 서버에 이르기까지 부진한 수요 예상에 SK하이닉스는 내년 설비투자의 25%를 축소할 것으로 전해짐.

Greenback strength is “largely a flight to safety,” Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank, said on Bloomberg TV. “The problem is until we get to see some light at the end of the tunnel with respect to either inflation coming off or oil prices coming off because of supply creation rather than demand destruction, it’s hard to call a top to it.” Investors are awaiting economic data from China to assess how its economy is faring amid challenges from a property sector slowdown and Covid lockdowns.

함의: 안전자산선호로 인한 달러 강세가 증시를 압박하는 가운데 금일 중국 데이터에 눈이 쏠리고 있음.

China Second-Quarter GDP Grows 0.4%, Missing Estimates.

China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since the initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, a reflection of the damage the nation’s Covid Zero approach has had on growth and the challenge Beijing faces in meeting its full-year target. Gross domestic product increased 0.4% from a year earlier, the worst performance since the first quarter of 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Growth was far weaker than the 1.2% gain in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

함의: 우한에서 바이러스 발현 이후 다시금 최악의 성장률 기록함.

The slew of China data was on the soft side versus estimates, but equities may react badly as it may increase the chance of an easing from the central bank. Although the medium-term lending rate was left unchanged today, that or a RRR cut could soon be on the table.

함의: 부정적 지표가 부양을 유도할 것이란 희망으로 위험자산은 상승 중.

As usual, spokesman Fu at the briefing is going through various aspects of China’s economic performance in the first half of this year, and will take questions from reporters after that. Fu says stagflation risk of the world economy is rising and major economies are in a trend of tightening policies. Fu says China’s long-term positive economic fundamentals are not changed despite many difficulties and challenges.

함의: 아직 건재하다고 자신함.

There appear to be two distinct regimes—the 1970s/80s and the 1990s onward—of yield curve behavior going into and coming out of recessions. The earlier regime saw deeper inversions ahead of recessions, followed by later and less pronounced steepening when compared to more recent history. This is likely tied to differences in inflation persistence and Fed behavior between the two periods. Our key takeaways for the current environment are forward starting steepener performance may be inconsistent over the next few months, and it may be prudent to wait until the end of the hiking cycle is more apparent before accumulating such positions in size.

보고서: 국채 수익률 역전은 70~80년대와 90년대 이후 중앙은행의 물가에 대한 태도에 따라 달랐는데, 이전은 수익률 역전이 침체 전에 발생하고 이후는 역전 성향이 덜했음. 현재의 금리인상의 끝이 가늠되기 전에 섣불리 수익률 곡선으로 판단하지 말것을 권고함. (Goldman Sachs - Recession Risk and the Yield Curve)

Los Angeles County raised its Covid-19 alert level, responding to surging cases of omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5. The most-populous US county on Thursday bumped up its warning level to “High” from “Medium” after flagging the surge in cases earlier this week. Hospital admissions have surpassed 10 per 100,000 residents over a seven-day period, officials said Thursday, an 88% increase from a month ago. If the higher alert remains over the next two weeks, masks will be required indoors across Los Angeles. “The greatest concern remains the steady increase in the proportions of BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants,” Barbara Ferrer, the county’s public health director, said at a briefing. “It’s likely we would need to return to indoor masking in the near future.”

함의: 변이 바이러스 감염 환자 증가로 가까운 시일 내 실내 마스크 착용 의무화가 재도입 될 수 있음.

Chinese’s property prices fell for a 10th month in June, underscoring how government relief efforts are failing to curb the country’s spiraling real estate crisis. New home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, slipped 0.1% from May, when they sank 0.17%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Friday. 

함의: 중국 신규 주택 가격 10개월 연속 하락하며 정부의 부동산 위기 억제가 효용이 없음을 보임.

This year’s surge in fuel prices has governments around the world searching for ways to offer relief and, in some places, suppress uprisings. Many already have subsidies in place and are expanding them. Some governments have long regulated prices. Across much of Europe, fuel taxes have been slashed. Other nations are doing nothing at all. Here’s a look at the policies in force in 51 countries around the world.

함의: 에너지 위기에 정부가 적극 지원하는 국가가 있는 반면, 아무런 조치도 없는 국가도 있음.

Copper is heading for its steepest weekly decline since the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, with fears mounting of a recession that could destroy global demand for industrial commodities. The metal used in everything from home wiring to electric vehicles has racked up a decline this week of nearly 10%. That’s not far off the 12% slump in March 2020, when investors were grappling with the dramatic early consequences of Covid-19’s spread around the world. 

함의: 모든 산업에 널리 사용되는 구리 가격이 침체 공포로 주간 -10% 하락하며 2020년 3월 -12% 하락 이후 최대 낙폭을 보임.

A giant bet against European stocks by Bridgewater Associates is starting to pay off. The world’s biggest hedge fund firm now has about $9.4 billion worth of wagers against 26 companies in Europe’s large-cap Euro Stoxx 50 index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Since Bridgewater’s initial bets were disclosed last month, the gauge has lagged major equity benchmarks in the US, the UK and Japan. 

함의: 브리지워터가 유럽 26개 대형주에 쌓아 둔 94억 달러 규모의 포지션이 수익을 보기 시작하고 있음.

Italian stocks were not having an easy 2022 to start with. Add an idiosyncratic political crisis to the list of reasons why the FTSE MIB can easily keep its noscript of the worst-performing European benchmark of 2022. While the FTSE MIB is rising today, on Thursday it slumped over 3% as the Italian government lurched toward collapse. Mario Draghi’s resignation offer adds to the economic and energy crises and fragmentation headwinds the stocks already faced.

함의: 예정에 없던 선거도 만들 기미를 보이며 유럽 최악의 벤치마크 타이틀을 잃지 않는, 전혀 달콤하지 못한 인생을 보내는 그곳, 아! 이탈리아.