Buckle up, because it looks like things are about to get even bumpier.

Brent Crude Erases All Gains Since February on Recession Fears. Brent crude futures dropped below $96.84, erasing all of its gains since Russia invaded Ukraine. Crude has fallen since early June on escalating fears the US may be pushed into a recession as central banks hike rates to combat inflation. Earlier this year, Brent futures rallied over $139 in March as Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupted an already tight supply-demand balance, sending energy prices soaring. 

함의: 유가는 경기침체 우려로 그간의 상승분 모두 반납.

Trading apps such as Robinhood Markets Inc. introduced millions of investors to the stock market during the pandemic, and many of them are experiencing a bear market for the first time. I suspect they have already learned some valuable lessons, notably that picking stocks is much more difficult in a down market.

함의: 첫 하락장을 경험하는 이들은, 하락장에서 종목선정이 훨씬 어렵다는 것도 깨닫고 있을 것.

"In solitude the mind gains strength and learns to lean upon itself."

- Laurence Sterne

Citi economists joined the growing crowd that thinks a full percentage point Fed hike in July is likely, but the central bank's Governor Christopher Waller declined to join the club. He said he supports a 75-bp increase this month after seeing the latest CPI report, but could vote for more aggressive action if coming retail sales and housing data point to further inflation risks. St. Louis President James Bullard told the Nikkei that he favors sticking with 75 bps this meeting.

함의: 월가 전문가들이 이번 달 중앙은행의 100bp 인상 예측에 동참하는 반면, 두 인사는 여전히 75bp에 무게를 둔다는 답변을 함.

OpenSea, the world’s largest marketplace for nonfungible tokens, is cutting about 20% of its staff, the latest in a series of layoffs that’s rocked the crypto industry as digital-asset prices continue to plummet. Chief Executive Devin Finzer announced the job cuts in a tweet on Thursday, and warned of a prolonged downturn amid the collapse in crypto prices and broader economic instability. OpenSea has 769 employees, according to LinkedIn. The cuts would eliminate more than 150 jobs. The company didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

함의: NFT 최대 거래 업체는 암호화폐 시장 붕괴와 불확실한 경제환경을 탓으로 직원의 20%를 해고함.

Are We in a Recession Now? Just Look at Discount Retailers. The biggest debate in financial markets is whether the US economy is already in recession, and that’s because the data is decidedly mixed. Inflation is raging, but the jobs market is red hot. Perhaps the answer lies with discount retailers. Even though the benchmark S&P 500 Index is fallen into a broad bear market by tumbling 20.2% this year through Wednesday, Dollar General Corp. has risen 4.58%, Dollar Tree Inc. has surged 18.1% and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. has soared 33.2%. This is a stunning level of outperformance, and reflects the theory that as inflation accelerates, consumers will be forced to trade down to cheaper and lower-quality goods sold by discount retailers. 

함의: 경기침체 임박에 대한 좋은 신호는 할인 업체의 상대성과 우위에서 확인되며, 인플레이션이 가속화 될 때 소비자가 더 싸고 더 낮은 질의 재화를 소비함을 알 수 있음.

SK Hynix Inc. is considering cutting its 2023 capital expenditure by about a quarter to 16 trillion won ($12.2 billion) in response to slower electronics demand than anticipated, people familiar with the matter said. The world’s second largest memory maker is sticking largely with plans to spend about 21 trillion won this year building up DRAM and NAND capacity, the people said. But rising uncertainty over dwindling demand for the chips that go into everything from smartphones to servers has forced a rethink of expansions next year, they said, asking not to be identified talking about undisclosed plans.

함의: 스마트폰에서 서버에 이르기까지 부진한 수요 예상에 SK하이닉스는 내년 설비투자의 25%를 축소할 것으로 전해짐.

Greenback strength is “largely a flight to safety,” Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank, said on Bloomberg TV. “The problem is until we get to see some light at the end of the tunnel with respect to either inflation coming off or oil prices coming off because of supply creation rather than demand destruction, it’s hard to call a top to it.” Investors are awaiting economic data from China to assess how its economy is faring amid challenges from a property sector slowdown and Covid lockdowns.

함의: 안전자산선호로 인한 달러 강세가 증시를 압박하는 가운데 금일 중국 데이터에 눈이 쏠리고 있음.

China Second-Quarter GDP Grows 0.4%, Missing Estimates.

China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since the initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, a reflection of the damage the nation’s Covid Zero approach has had on growth and the challenge Beijing faces in meeting its full-year target. Gross domestic product increased 0.4% from a year earlier, the worst performance since the first quarter of 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Growth was far weaker than the 1.2% gain in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

함의: 우한에서 바이러스 발현 이후 다시금 최악의 성장률 기록함.

The slew of China data was on the soft side versus estimates, but equities may react badly as it may increase the chance of an easing from the central bank. Although the medium-term lending rate was left unchanged today, that or a RRR cut could soon be on the table.

함의: 부정적 지표가 부양을 유도할 것이란 희망으로 위험자산은 상승 중.

As usual, spokesman Fu at the briefing is going through various aspects of China’s economic performance in the first half of this year, and will take questions from reporters after that. Fu says stagflation risk of the world economy is rising and major economies are in a trend of tightening policies. Fu says China’s long-term positive economic fundamentals are not changed despite many difficulties and challenges.

함의: 아직 건재하다고 자신함.

There appear to be two distinct regimes—the 1970s/80s and the 1990s onward—of yield curve behavior going into and coming out of recessions. The earlier regime saw deeper inversions ahead of recessions, followed by later and less pronounced steepening when compared to more recent history. This is likely tied to differences in inflation persistence and Fed behavior between the two periods. Our key takeaways for the current environment are forward starting steepener performance may be inconsistent over the next few months, and it may be prudent to wait until the end of the hiking cycle is more apparent before accumulating such positions in size.

보고서: 국채 수익률 역전은 70~80년대와 90년대 이후 중앙은행의 물가에 대한 태도에 따라 달랐는데, 이전은 수익률 역전이 침체 전에 발생하고 이후는 역전 성향이 덜했음. 현재의 금리인상의 끝이 가늠되기 전에 섣불리 수익률 곡선으로 판단하지 말것을 권고함. (Goldman Sachs - Recession Risk and the Yield Curve)

Los Angeles County raised its Covid-19 alert level, responding to surging cases of omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5. The most-populous US county on Thursday bumped up its warning level to “High” from “Medium” after flagging the surge in cases earlier this week. Hospital admissions have surpassed 10 per 100,000 residents over a seven-day period, officials said Thursday, an 88% increase from a month ago. If the higher alert remains over the next two weeks, masks will be required indoors across Los Angeles. “The greatest concern remains the steady increase in the proportions of BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants,” Barbara Ferrer, the county’s public health director, said at a briefing. “It’s likely we would need to return to indoor masking in the near future.”

함의: 변이 바이러스 감염 환자 증가로 가까운 시일 내 실내 마스크 착용 의무화가 재도입 될 수 있음.

Chinese’s property prices fell for a 10th month in June, underscoring how government relief efforts are failing to curb the country’s spiraling real estate crisis. New home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, slipped 0.1% from May, when they sank 0.17%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Friday. 

함의: 중국 신규 주택 가격 10개월 연속 하락하며 정부의 부동산 위기 억제가 효용이 없음을 보임.

This year’s surge in fuel prices has governments around the world searching for ways to offer relief and, in some places, suppress uprisings. Many already have subsidies in place and are expanding them. Some governments have long regulated prices. Across much of Europe, fuel taxes have been slashed. Other nations are doing nothing at all. Here’s a look at the policies in force in 51 countries around the world.

함의: 에너지 위기에 정부가 적극 지원하는 국가가 있는 반면, 아무런 조치도 없는 국가도 있음.