Bottom-line: 지난 3년 간 지켜왔던 바이러스 억제 정책을 무산시킨 이후 중국은 이전까지 겪지 못한 최악의 바이러스 확산 사태 속에 있다고 추측 됨. 12월 4일 이후 공식적으로 바이러스에 의한 사망자를 보고하지 않았지만, 이미 북경의 장례식장과 화장터에 바이러스 양성 사망자가 수없이 도착하고 있기 때문임. 파이낸셜 타임즈를 통해 제보 한 북경의 화장터에 근무하는 직원은 수요일에만 30명의 사망자 시신을 화장했다고 했으며, 로이터의 보도에 따르면 이미 장례식장이 포화상태라고 함. 실제로 중국은 바이러스에 대한 정책을 전환하기 전에도 사망자를 제대로 보고하지 않았다는 의심을 사고 있었는데(Fuel Concern China Hiding Data), 이런 심각한 상황에도 11월 23일이 마지막 사망자 보고였기 때문임.
The number of Covid-positive dead arriving at Beijing’s funeral parlors and crematoriums is rising, according to media reports, despite China not reporting a fatality from the virus for two weeks. The Chinese capital is in the grip of its worst Covid wave yet, after officials nationwide abruptly abandoned the stringent curbs that have kept the virus at bay for much of the past three years. Staff at a Beijing crematorium told the Financial Times they cremated the bodies of at least 30 Covid victims on Wednesday, while a relative of one of the dead said their family member had been infected with the virus, according to the Associated Press. Reuters reported funeral homes in Beijing being overwhelmed. Still, China hasn’t recorded a death from Covid since Dec. 4, when two were lodged, that of an 84-year-old man in Sichuan province with underlying health conditions and another in Shandong province. The last official Covid fatality reported for Beijing — which was seeing thousands of cases a day even before China’s swift u-turn on Covid Zero — was recorded on Nov. 23: qA woman, 87, authorities said had chronic heart disease.
The number of Covid-positive dead arriving at Beijing’s funeral parlors and crematoriums is rising, according to media reports, despite China not reporting a fatality from the virus for two weeks. The Chinese capital is in the grip of its worst Covid wave yet, after officials nationwide abruptly abandoned the stringent curbs that have kept the virus at bay for much of the past three years. Staff at a Beijing crematorium told the Financial Times they cremated the bodies of at least 30 Covid victims on Wednesday, while a relative of one of the dead said their family member had been infected with the virus, according to the Associated Press. Reuters reported funeral homes in Beijing being overwhelmed. Still, China hasn’t recorded a death from Covid since Dec. 4, when two were lodged, that of an 84-year-old man in Sichuan province with underlying health conditions and another in Shandong province. The last official Covid fatality reported for Beijing — which was seeing thousands of cases a day even before China’s swift u-turn on Covid Zero — was recorded on Nov. 23: qA woman, 87, authorities said had chronic heart disease.
We are often asked how quant strategies, which are predicated on historical data, can handle a volatile market environment with few historical precedents. Don't current dynamics “break” quant strategies? In our view, quant's strong outperformance in 2022 resulted from a diverse set of catalysts.
We think these performance patterns are likely to continue in the coming year.
Morgan Stanley
We think these performance patterns are likely to continue in the coming year.
Morgan Stanley
Docent: 모건스탠리가 중국에 대한 투자의견을 상향한 가운데, 이후 고객들이 가장 많이 질문한 내용을 모아서 자료를 발간했으며, '왜 이런 질문을 했을까'라고 다시 한 번 생각해보는 것이 투자에 도움이 될 것이라 봄. 1) 가격에 긍정적 소식이 이미 반영되었는지, 2) 이미 쏠린 거래가 되었는지, 3) 감염자 증가에 따른 정책 회귀 우려가 있는지, 4) 인플레이션 우려가 중국에도 영향을 미칠지, 5) 이번 랠리에 어떤 방식으로 투자해야 할지, 6) 추가 상승을 판단할 수 있는 근거로는 무엇이 있을지였음.
FAQs on Our Recent Upgrade of China. 1) Has the market already fully priced in the post-Covidreopening?, 2) Has the trade become crowded – are investors ready tooffload?, 3) Should we worry about rollback of reopening in responseto spiking case numbers, 4) Could the ongoing inflation debate in the US be a drag onthe market in China (Hong Kong)?, 5) How should we invest through the rally?, 6) What are the signposts to watch to determine further market upside?
FAQs on Our Recent Upgrade of China. 1) Has the market already fully priced in the post-Covidreopening?, 2) Has the trade become crowded – are investors ready tooffload?, 3) Should we worry about rollback of reopening in responseto spiking case numbers, 4) Could the ongoing inflation debate in the US be a drag onthe market in China (Hong Kong)?, 5) How should we invest through the rally?, 6) What are the signposts to watch to determine further market upside?
개인적으로 애널리스트에게 고견을 구하면서 그에게 가격이란 사후적 값이 정답에 가까웠니 아니었니를 논하는 것은 의미없다고 봄. 애널리스트가 보고서를 작성하는데 투입되는 고민, 그를 통해 만들어 낸 근거, 그리고 고민과 근거 속에 제시하는 투자의 결론을 받아들일지 말지는 선택은 스스로 하면 되는 것임.
그 누구도 비어있는 엑셀을 열고서 Sheet1이라고 된 텅 빈 공간에 회사의 비지니스 모델을 이해하고, 변수를 투입하고, 그를 통해 근거와 추정, 끝으로 결론까지 도출하는걸 쉽게 할 수 없을 것이기 때문에, 그 자체로 존중받아야 할 일임.
그 누구도 비어있는 엑셀을 열고서 Sheet1이라고 된 텅 빈 공간에 회사의 비지니스 모델을 이해하고, 변수를 투입하고, 그를 통해 근거와 추정, 끝으로 결론까지 도출하는걸 쉽게 할 수 없을 것이기 때문에, 그 자체로 존중받아야 할 일임.
Bottom-line: 올 한해 미국주식시장에 역풍으로 작용했던 요소 중의 하나인 국채 수익률 역전은 중앙은행의 태도로 볼 때 내년 초까지 유지 될 수 있음. 뿐만 아니라 국채 수익률이 정상화(만기가 길수록 국채 수익률이 더 높은 상태) 되더라도 주식시장은 여전히 어려울 가능성이 있음. 국채 수익률 역전 이후 정상화 과정은 여러 차례 있었지만, 전세계 금융위기(2008년), 바이러스 대확산(2020년)의 경우 굉장히 왜곡 된 상황이었으므로 이를 제외할 경우 우리는 2000년대 혹은 2013년을 봐야 함. 먼저 2000년을 볼 경우 주식시장이 고점을 기록한 이후 2개월 뒤에도 중앙은행은 정책금리를 6.5%까지 인상하고, 그 해 말까지 해당 금리를 유지했음. 국채 수익률은 정상화되기 시작했지만, 2002년이 되어서야 주가는 바닥을 통과했음. 이번 통화정책회의에서 높은 금리를 오래 유지하겠다는 발언을 감안할 때 내년 주식시장에 대한 참고가 될 것임. 2013년의 경우 국채 수익률 정상화와 함께 S&P 500 지수가 30% 상승했지만, 금융위기 이후 장기간 0%에 가까운 정책금리를 오래도록 유지하고 있었고, 이후에도 해당 금리를 지속유지했다는 것이 다름.
A headwind for US equities this year has been a deeply inverted bond yield curve. That will persist into early next year after Jerome Powell reiterated that a restrictive policy stance will be needed for some time. However, even when the Treasuries curve reverts to steepening, history suggests it will continue to be tough going for American stocks. A review of cycles since the turn of the century suggest one template for the 2023 outlook could be the bursting of the internet bubble in early 2000. Even though stocks were tumbling, the Fed held rates at 6.5% until the start of 2001, citing inflation as a major factor for high rates. There have been three other steepening periods since then, but the global financial crisis and the Covid pandemic distorted two of them. Traders may focus more on the curve shift, which began in late 2000, or the steepening that took place during 2013. The first cycle was rough for equities, with US stocks mostly in retreat, driven by slumping internet stocks. The Nasdaq Composite finally bottomed out in October 2002. Although Nasdaq stocks peaked in March 2000, the Fed actually raised the funds rate two months later to 6.5% and held it there through the remainder of that year. That could be a guide for next year given the Fed is going with a higher-for-longer mantra. The curve steepening through 2013 was much more friendlier for equities with the S&P 500 gaining by almost 30%. However, the background was a Fed funds rate which had been anchored near zero since 2008 and was held there for several more years.
A headwind for US equities this year has been a deeply inverted bond yield curve. That will persist into early next year after Jerome Powell reiterated that a restrictive policy stance will be needed for some time. However, even when the Treasuries curve reverts to steepening, history suggests it will continue to be tough going for American stocks. A review of cycles since the turn of the century suggest one template for the 2023 outlook could be the bursting of the internet bubble in early 2000. Even though stocks were tumbling, the Fed held rates at 6.5% until the start of 2001, citing inflation as a major factor for high rates. There have been three other steepening periods since then, but the global financial crisis and the Covid pandemic distorted two of them. Traders may focus more on the curve shift, which began in late 2000, or the steepening that took place during 2013. The first cycle was rough for equities, with US stocks mostly in retreat, driven by slumping internet stocks. The Nasdaq Composite finally bottomed out in October 2002. Although Nasdaq stocks peaked in March 2000, the Fed actually raised the funds rate two months later to 6.5% and held it there through the remainder of that year. That could be a guide for next year given the Fed is going with a higher-for-longer mantra. The curve steepening through 2013 was much more friendlier for equities with the S&P 500 gaining by almost 30%. However, the background was a Fed funds rate which had been anchored near zero since 2008 and was held there for several more years.
Bottom-line: 일본 중앙은행이 고수하던 국채 수익률 곡선 통제를 조정하기로 결정함. 블룸버그에 예상치를 제시한 47명의 경제 전문가 모두는 이번에 정책 변화가 없을 것으로 생각했기 때문에 시장에 큰 충격을 줬음. 발표 직전 달러 대비 137.16에 거래 되었던 엔화는 133.11까지 강세를 보였고, 일본 10년물 국채 수익률은 0.25%에서 0.46%까지 급등했음.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda shocked markets by adjusting the central bank’s yield curve control program, sparking a jump in the yen and yields just months before he is due to step down. The BOJ will now allow Japan’s 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5%, up from the previous upper limit of 0.25% on its movement range, according to its policy statement Tuesday. The central bank said the move will enhance the sustainability of its monetary easing. The central bank kept its target on the yield unchanged at around zero percent and left its short-term interest rate at -0.1%. It also said it would significantly increase its bond purchases to 9 trillion yen ($67.5 billion) per month compared with the currently planned 7.3 trillion yen. The yen strengthened to as much as 133.11 against the dollar, compared with 137.16 immediately before the announcement. The 10-year yield jumped to 0.46% from 0.25% after the decision. All 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected no policy change, though most of them had said the bank should do more to improve the functioning of the bond market.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda shocked markets by adjusting the central bank’s yield curve control program, sparking a jump in the yen and yields just months before he is due to step down. The BOJ will now allow Japan’s 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5%, up from the previous upper limit of 0.25% on its movement range, according to its policy statement Tuesday. The central bank said the move will enhance the sustainability of its monetary easing. The central bank kept its target on the yield unchanged at around zero percent and left its short-term interest rate at -0.1%. It also said it would significantly increase its bond purchases to 9 trillion yen ($67.5 billion) per month compared with the currently planned 7.3 trillion yen. The yen strengthened to as much as 133.11 against the dollar, compared with 137.16 immediately before the announcement. The 10-year yield jumped to 0.46% from 0.25% after the decision. All 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected no policy change, though most of them had said the bank should do more to improve the functioning of the bond market.
Implication: 일본 중앙은행의 변화 이후 정작 엔화나 일본 국채 거래에 있어 명확한 방향이 보이진 않음. 되려 주식시장, 특히 미국 주식시장이 부정적 타격을 입을 것이란 사실은 선명함. 지속적인 일본 내 금리 상방 압력이 해외로 투자되었던 자금을 끌어올 것인데, 이 역풍을 맞이하기에 미국 주식시장 경기침체에 임박한 경제 치고는 여전히 비싸기 때문임.
The yen and JGB trades will get more difficult from here. It’s the negative impact on global stocks that will be cleaner now. Many cross-asset funding trades have just blown up, there will be ongoing upward pressure on yields, and the Japanese will be repatriating assets at the margin. This is a negative impulse for global stocks, and US equities in particular, because they are still expensive going into a 2023 recession.
The yen and JGB trades will get more difficult from here. It’s the negative impact on global stocks that will be cleaner now. Many cross-asset funding trades have just blown up, there will be ongoing upward pressure on yields, and the Japanese will be repatriating assets at the margin. This is a negative impulse for global stocks, and US equities in particular, because they are still expensive going into a 2023 recession.
Bottom-line: 시장 참여자 모두가 이 말을 순순히 믿진 않지만, 🤦🏻♂️
Kuroda’s early comments seem to be pushing back against the idea that this is a deliberate policy shift. He highlighted the spillover effects on markets from YCC and again said they won’t hesitate to ease if needed. Regardless, not everyone in the market believes this.
Kuroda’s early comments seem to be pushing back against the idea that this is a deliberate policy shift. He highlighted the spillover effects on markets from YCC and again said they won’t hesitate to ease if needed. Regardless, not everyone in the market believes this.
Bottom-line: 일본 중앙은행이 최선을 다해 전달한 메시지와 같이 오늘의 제목은 “긴축이 아님”이라 함이 맞을 것 같음. 이번 성명문의 제목은 통상적(통화정책에 대한 성명)인데, 보통 정책에 실제 변화를 줄 때 성명문은 지난 3월처럼 “보다 효과적이며 지속 가능한 통화정책“과 같기 때문임.
Today’s statement could well have been headlined “Not Tightening” because that is the message that Kuroda is doing his best to send. As an aside, I thought it was significant today that the statement was merely noscriptd “Statement on Monetary Policy,” which is the language usually used when there’s no change a policy. A tweak usually has a different headline, such as last March’s “Further Effective and Sustainable Monetary Easing.”
Today’s statement could well have been headlined “Not Tightening” because that is the message that Kuroda is doing his best to send. As an aside, I thought it was significant today that the statement was merely noscriptd “Statement on Monetary Policy,” which is the language usually used when there’s no change a policy. A tweak usually has a different headline, such as last March’s “Further Effective and Sustainable Monetary Easing.”
🤔🤔🤔
Well, I haven’t been counting how many times Kuroda has said the latest tweak to YCC is not a rate hike, but he says this is something he wants to make sure is “fully communicated” to markets.
Well, I haven’t been counting how many times Kuroda has said the latest tweak to YCC is not a rate hike, but he says this is something he wants to make sure is “fully communicated” to markets.
• 사담
“Loan side mind"
일본 중앙은행의 성명문 이후 움직였던 두 자산이 회견 이후 서로 다른 길을 가고 있음.
갈라파고스처럼 금리를 국채 수익률 곡선 통제(YCC)로 묶어둔 탓에 약세를 가파르게 기록하던 엔화의 경우, 성명문 때도 회견 이후도 강세 추세를 이어가며 금리의 추가 상승에 무게를 두고 있지만,
나스닥 100 지수 선물의 경우 대부분의 낙폭을 회복하고 있음. 포트폴리오 구분에 있어 매수 일변도의 투자만 할 수 있는 투자자가 대부분인 주식에서는 언제나 긍정적 단서(Upside)를 찾는 편임.
반대로 채권과 외환 시장의 경우 언제나 채권자의 심리로 부정적 요소로 인한 위험(Loan side mind)을 찾아내려고 함.
변동성이 큰 시장에서 어떤 심리적 자세가 높은 파도가 지속되는 힘든 구간을 버틸 수 있을까, 그런 생각을 해 봄.
“Loan side mind"
일본 중앙은행의 성명문 이후 움직였던 두 자산이 회견 이후 서로 다른 길을 가고 있음.
갈라파고스처럼 금리를 국채 수익률 곡선 통제(YCC)로 묶어둔 탓에 약세를 가파르게 기록하던 엔화의 경우, 성명문 때도 회견 이후도 강세 추세를 이어가며 금리의 추가 상승에 무게를 두고 있지만,
나스닥 100 지수 선물의 경우 대부분의 낙폭을 회복하고 있음. 포트폴리오 구분에 있어 매수 일변도의 투자만 할 수 있는 투자자가 대부분인 주식에서는 언제나 긍정적 단서(Upside)를 찾는 편임.
반대로 채권과 외환 시장의 경우 언제나 채권자의 심리로 부정적 요소로 인한 위험(Loan side mind)을 찾아내려고 함.
변동성이 큰 시장에서 어떤 심리적 자세가 높은 파도가 지속되는 힘든 구간을 버틸 수 있을까, 그런 생각을 해 봄.
Bottom-line: 일본 2년물 국채 금리가 2015년 이후 처음으로 0% 이상을 기록하면서 전세계적인 0% 금리의 시대가 끝나가고 있음을 알림. 블룸버그가 집계하는 0% 이하 금리지수에 남아있는 유일한 자산은 일본 단기 채권 뿐이며, 2021년 말 11조 달러에 달하던 0% 이하 채권의 규모는 현재 6,860억 달러로 축소되었음. 전일의 일본 중앙은행의 결정은 투자자들로 하여금 10년 넘는 기간의 엄청난 완화적 정책을 고수하던 마지막 국가조차 이 시대의 끝을 고했다는 경종이었음. 투자 전문가는 이제 시장 참여자들도 마이너스 금리가 작동하지 않는다는 것을 인지하고 있다고 답함. 최근 일본 내에서도 40년래 최고 수준의 인플레이션과 30년 만의 최악을 기록한 엔화 가치 속에 팽창적 통화정책에 대한 회의론이 가득했었음.
Japan’s two-year yield rose above zero for the first time since 2015, bringing the global era of negative yields closer to an end. The rate added as much as two basis points to 0.01% on Wednesday, according to Japan Bond Trading Co. data, as the country’s debt extended declines after the central bank doubled its cap on 10-year yields on Tuesday. All other benchmark tenors have yields above zero and Bloomberg’s gauge of global negative-yielding debt only contains short-term Japanese bonds. The pool of global debt with sub-zero yields shrank Tuesday to $686 billion, from more than $11 trillion at the end of 2021, as this year’s wave of global policy tightening sent bonds into the first bear market in a generation. The Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to widen the trading band for 10-year yields sent bonds tumbling worldwide as investors decided the last major central bank to stick with the ultra-loose settings in vogue for much of the past decade or more was finally giving into the tightening trend. “What we are looking at is a reexamination of the efficacy of ultra loose monetary policy, and the BOJ is the last skittle to fall in all of this,” said Stephen Miller, a former head of fixed income at BlackRock Inc. in Australia who’s now at GSFM Pty. “I hope this is the end for negative rates because it might mean we’re going to stop relying on central banks to do everything. We now know that negative rates don’t work, full stop.”. Japan’s inflation hit its fastest clip in 40 years in October, adding to doubts over the need for continued stimulus, especially after the yen’s collapse to the weakest in more than 30 years stirred discontent across the nation.
Japan’s two-year yield rose above zero for the first time since 2015, bringing the global era of negative yields closer to an end. The rate added as much as two basis points to 0.01% on Wednesday, according to Japan Bond Trading Co. data, as the country’s debt extended declines after the central bank doubled its cap on 10-year yields on Tuesday. All other benchmark tenors have yields above zero and Bloomberg’s gauge of global negative-yielding debt only contains short-term Japanese bonds. The pool of global debt with sub-zero yields shrank Tuesday to $686 billion, from more than $11 trillion at the end of 2021, as this year’s wave of global policy tightening sent bonds into the first bear market in a generation. The Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to widen the trading band for 10-year yields sent bonds tumbling worldwide as investors decided the last major central bank to stick with the ultra-loose settings in vogue for much of the past decade or more was finally giving into the tightening trend. “What we are looking at is a reexamination of the efficacy of ultra loose monetary policy, and the BOJ is the last skittle to fall in all of this,” said Stephen Miller, a former head of fixed income at BlackRock Inc. in Australia who’s now at GSFM Pty. “I hope this is the end for negative rates because it might mean we’re going to stop relying on central banks to do everything. We now know that negative rates don’t work, full stop.”. Japan’s inflation hit its fastest clip in 40 years in October, adding to doubts over the need for continued stimulus, especially after the yen’s collapse to the weakest in more than 30 years stirred discontent across the nation.
Implication: 일본 중앙은행은 통화정책 신뢰성 비판에 직면해 있고, 거래 참여자들은 언제든지 10년물 국채 금리 기준 0.8%까지 도달 가능하다고 여김.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is facing mounting criticism over his latest shock policy decision, with several prominent economists calling it a blow to BOJ credibility and traders rushing to test the central bank’s new red line on bond yields. BOJ watchers including Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting’s Shinichiro Kobayashi say Kuroda erred by appearing to back track on recent policy guidance without warning. Swaps traders are already betting the BOJ will be forced to abandon its new yield cap on 10-year bonds, signaling a 0.8% rate may be possible at any time.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is facing mounting criticism over his latest shock policy decision, with several prominent economists calling it a blow to BOJ credibility and traders rushing to test the central bank’s new red line on bond yields. BOJ watchers including Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting’s Shinichiro Kobayashi say Kuroda erred by appearing to back track on recent policy guidance without warning. Swaps traders are already betting the BOJ will be forced to abandon its new yield cap on 10-year bonds, signaling a 0.8% rate may be possible at any time.
Bottom-line: 100여년에 가까운 미국 주식시장 역사를 되돌아 볼 때, 확률적으로 올해에 이어 내년까지 지수 수익률이 손실을 기록하긴 어려움. 다만, 2년 이상 손실을 기록했던 단 4번의 경우(대공황, 2차 세계대전, 석유 파동, 닷컴 버블) 첫 해보다 두번째 해의 손실이 더 컸고, 평균 -24%에 달함. 이는 올해 약 -20%의 손실을 상회하는 것임.
Consecutive down years are rare for US stocks, so after this year’s drop, there’s only a low probability they will decline again in 2023. Yet if they do, history shows that investors will have to brace for another very unpleasant 12 months. Since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has only fallen for two straight years on four occasions: The Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the start of this century. In the benchmark’s almost 100-year history, such occasions are clear outliers. Yet when they have occurred, drops in the second year have always been deeper than in the first, with an average decline of 24%. That would exceed this year’s slide of about 20% to date.
Consecutive down years are rare for US stocks, so after this year’s drop, there’s only a low probability they will decline again in 2023. Yet if they do, history shows that investors will have to brace for another very unpleasant 12 months. Since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has only fallen for two straight years on four occasions: The Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the start of this century. In the benchmark’s almost 100-year history, such occasions are clear outliers. Yet when they have occurred, drops in the second year have always been deeper than in the first, with an average decline of 24%. That would exceed this year’s slide of about 20% to date.