Bottom-line: 일본 중앙은행이 고수하던 국채 수익률 곡선 통제를 조정하기로 결정함. 블룸버그에 예상치를 제시한 47명의 경제 전문가 모두는 이번에 정책 변화가 없을 것으로 생각했기 때문에 시장에 큰 충격을 줬음. 발표 직전 달러 대비 137.16에 거래 되었던 엔화는 133.11까지 강세를 보였고, 일본 10년물 국채 수익률은 0.25%에서 0.46%까지 급등했음.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda shocked markets by adjusting the central bank’s yield curve control program, sparking a jump in the yen and yields just months before he is due to step down. The BOJ will now allow Japan’s 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5%, up from the previous upper limit of 0.25% on its movement range, according to its policy statement Tuesday. The central bank said the move will enhance the sustainability of its monetary easing. The central bank kept its target on the yield unchanged at around zero percent and left its short-term interest rate at -0.1%. It also said it would significantly increase its bond purchases to 9 trillion yen ($67.5 billion) per month compared with the currently planned 7.3 trillion yen. The yen strengthened to as much as 133.11 against the dollar, compared with 137.16 immediately before the announcement. The 10-year yield jumped to 0.46% from 0.25% after the decision. All 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected no policy change, though most of them had said the bank should do more to improve the functioning of the bond market.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda shocked markets by adjusting the central bank’s yield curve control program, sparking a jump in the yen and yields just months before he is due to step down. The BOJ will now allow Japan’s 10-year bond yields to rise to around 0.5%, up from the previous upper limit of 0.25% on its movement range, according to its policy statement Tuesday. The central bank said the move will enhance the sustainability of its monetary easing. The central bank kept its target on the yield unchanged at around zero percent and left its short-term interest rate at -0.1%. It also said it would significantly increase its bond purchases to 9 trillion yen ($67.5 billion) per month compared with the currently planned 7.3 trillion yen. The yen strengthened to as much as 133.11 against the dollar, compared with 137.16 immediately before the announcement. The 10-year yield jumped to 0.46% from 0.25% after the decision. All 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected no policy change, though most of them had said the bank should do more to improve the functioning of the bond market.
Implication: 일본 중앙은행의 변화 이후 정작 엔화나 일본 국채 거래에 있어 명확한 방향이 보이진 않음. 되려 주식시장, 특히 미국 주식시장이 부정적 타격을 입을 것이란 사실은 선명함. 지속적인 일본 내 금리 상방 압력이 해외로 투자되었던 자금을 끌어올 것인데, 이 역풍을 맞이하기에 미국 주식시장 경기침체에 임박한 경제 치고는 여전히 비싸기 때문임.
The yen and JGB trades will get more difficult from here. It’s the negative impact on global stocks that will be cleaner now. Many cross-asset funding trades have just blown up, there will be ongoing upward pressure on yields, and the Japanese will be repatriating assets at the margin. This is a negative impulse for global stocks, and US equities in particular, because they are still expensive going into a 2023 recession.
The yen and JGB trades will get more difficult from here. It’s the negative impact on global stocks that will be cleaner now. Many cross-asset funding trades have just blown up, there will be ongoing upward pressure on yields, and the Japanese will be repatriating assets at the margin. This is a negative impulse for global stocks, and US equities in particular, because they are still expensive going into a 2023 recession.
Bottom-line: 시장 참여자 모두가 이 말을 순순히 믿진 않지만, 🤦🏻♂️
Kuroda’s early comments seem to be pushing back against the idea that this is a deliberate policy shift. He highlighted the spillover effects on markets from YCC and again said they won’t hesitate to ease if needed. Regardless, not everyone in the market believes this.
Kuroda’s early comments seem to be pushing back against the idea that this is a deliberate policy shift. He highlighted the spillover effects on markets from YCC and again said they won’t hesitate to ease if needed. Regardless, not everyone in the market believes this.
Bottom-line: 일본 중앙은행이 최선을 다해 전달한 메시지와 같이 오늘의 제목은 “긴축이 아님”이라 함이 맞을 것 같음. 이번 성명문의 제목은 통상적(통화정책에 대한 성명)인데, 보통 정책에 실제 변화를 줄 때 성명문은 지난 3월처럼 “보다 효과적이며 지속 가능한 통화정책“과 같기 때문임.
Today’s statement could well have been headlined “Not Tightening” because that is the message that Kuroda is doing his best to send. As an aside, I thought it was significant today that the statement was merely noscriptd “Statement on Monetary Policy,” which is the language usually used when there’s no change a policy. A tweak usually has a different headline, such as last March’s “Further Effective and Sustainable Monetary Easing.”
Today’s statement could well have been headlined “Not Tightening” because that is the message that Kuroda is doing his best to send. As an aside, I thought it was significant today that the statement was merely noscriptd “Statement on Monetary Policy,” which is the language usually used when there’s no change a policy. A tweak usually has a different headline, such as last March’s “Further Effective and Sustainable Monetary Easing.”
🤔🤔🤔
Well, I haven’t been counting how many times Kuroda has said the latest tweak to YCC is not a rate hike, but he says this is something he wants to make sure is “fully communicated” to markets.
Well, I haven’t been counting how many times Kuroda has said the latest tweak to YCC is not a rate hike, but he says this is something he wants to make sure is “fully communicated” to markets.
• 사담
“Loan side mind"
일본 중앙은행의 성명문 이후 움직였던 두 자산이 회견 이후 서로 다른 길을 가고 있음.
갈라파고스처럼 금리를 국채 수익률 곡선 통제(YCC)로 묶어둔 탓에 약세를 가파르게 기록하던 엔화의 경우, 성명문 때도 회견 이후도 강세 추세를 이어가며 금리의 추가 상승에 무게를 두고 있지만,
나스닥 100 지수 선물의 경우 대부분의 낙폭을 회복하고 있음. 포트폴리오 구분에 있어 매수 일변도의 투자만 할 수 있는 투자자가 대부분인 주식에서는 언제나 긍정적 단서(Upside)를 찾는 편임.
반대로 채권과 외환 시장의 경우 언제나 채권자의 심리로 부정적 요소로 인한 위험(Loan side mind)을 찾아내려고 함.
변동성이 큰 시장에서 어떤 심리적 자세가 높은 파도가 지속되는 힘든 구간을 버틸 수 있을까, 그런 생각을 해 봄.
“Loan side mind"
일본 중앙은행의 성명문 이후 움직였던 두 자산이 회견 이후 서로 다른 길을 가고 있음.
갈라파고스처럼 금리를 국채 수익률 곡선 통제(YCC)로 묶어둔 탓에 약세를 가파르게 기록하던 엔화의 경우, 성명문 때도 회견 이후도 강세 추세를 이어가며 금리의 추가 상승에 무게를 두고 있지만,
나스닥 100 지수 선물의 경우 대부분의 낙폭을 회복하고 있음. 포트폴리오 구분에 있어 매수 일변도의 투자만 할 수 있는 투자자가 대부분인 주식에서는 언제나 긍정적 단서(Upside)를 찾는 편임.
반대로 채권과 외환 시장의 경우 언제나 채권자의 심리로 부정적 요소로 인한 위험(Loan side mind)을 찾아내려고 함.
변동성이 큰 시장에서 어떤 심리적 자세가 높은 파도가 지속되는 힘든 구간을 버틸 수 있을까, 그런 생각을 해 봄.
Bottom-line: 일본 2년물 국채 금리가 2015년 이후 처음으로 0% 이상을 기록하면서 전세계적인 0% 금리의 시대가 끝나가고 있음을 알림. 블룸버그가 집계하는 0% 이하 금리지수에 남아있는 유일한 자산은 일본 단기 채권 뿐이며, 2021년 말 11조 달러에 달하던 0% 이하 채권의 규모는 현재 6,860억 달러로 축소되었음. 전일의 일본 중앙은행의 결정은 투자자들로 하여금 10년 넘는 기간의 엄청난 완화적 정책을 고수하던 마지막 국가조차 이 시대의 끝을 고했다는 경종이었음. 투자 전문가는 이제 시장 참여자들도 마이너스 금리가 작동하지 않는다는 것을 인지하고 있다고 답함. 최근 일본 내에서도 40년래 최고 수준의 인플레이션과 30년 만의 최악을 기록한 엔화 가치 속에 팽창적 통화정책에 대한 회의론이 가득했었음.
Japan’s two-year yield rose above zero for the first time since 2015, bringing the global era of negative yields closer to an end. The rate added as much as two basis points to 0.01% on Wednesday, according to Japan Bond Trading Co. data, as the country’s debt extended declines after the central bank doubled its cap on 10-year yields on Tuesday. All other benchmark tenors have yields above zero and Bloomberg’s gauge of global negative-yielding debt only contains short-term Japanese bonds. The pool of global debt with sub-zero yields shrank Tuesday to $686 billion, from more than $11 trillion at the end of 2021, as this year’s wave of global policy tightening sent bonds into the first bear market in a generation. The Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to widen the trading band for 10-year yields sent bonds tumbling worldwide as investors decided the last major central bank to stick with the ultra-loose settings in vogue for much of the past decade or more was finally giving into the tightening trend. “What we are looking at is a reexamination of the efficacy of ultra loose monetary policy, and the BOJ is the last skittle to fall in all of this,” said Stephen Miller, a former head of fixed income at BlackRock Inc. in Australia who’s now at GSFM Pty. “I hope this is the end for negative rates because it might mean we’re going to stop relying on central banks to do everything. We now know that negative rates don’t work, full stop.”. Japan’s inflation hit its fastest clip in 40 years in October, adding to doubts over the need for continued stimulus, especially after the yen’s collapse to the weakest in more than 30 years stirred discontent across the nation.
Japan’s two-year yield rose above zero for the first time since 2015, bringing the global era of negative yields closer to an end. The rate added as much as two basis points to 0.01% on Wednesday, according to Japan Bond Trading Co. data, as the country’s debt extended declines after the central bank doubled its cap on 10-year yields on Tuesday. All other benchmark tenors have yields above zero and Bloomberg’s gauge of global negative-yielding debt only contains short-term Japanese bonds. The pool of global debt with sub-zero yields shrank Tuesday to $686 billion, from more than $11 trillion at the end of 2021, as this year’s wave of global policy tightening sent bonds into the first bear market in a generation. The Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to widen the trading band for 10-year yields sent bonds tumbling worldwide as investors decided the last major central bank to stick with the ultra-loose settings in vogue for much of the past decade or more was finally giving into the tightening trend. “What we are looking at is a reexamination of the efficacy of ultra loose monetary policy, and the BOJ is the last skittle to fall in all of this,” said Stephen Miller, a former head of fixed income at BlackRock Inc. in Australia who’s now at GSFM Pty. “I hope this is the end for negative rates because it might mean we’re going to stop relying on central banks to do everything. We now know that negative rates don’t work, full stop.”. Japan’s inflation hit its fastest clip in 40 years in October, adding to doubts over the need for continued stimulus, especially after the yen’s collapse to the weakest in more than 30 years stirred discontent across the nation.
Implication: 일본 중앙은행은 통화정책 신뢰성 비판에 직면해 있고, 거래 참여자들은 언제든지 10년물 국채 금리 기준 0.8%까지 도달 가능하다고 여김.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is facing mounting criticism over his latest shock policy decision, with several prominent economists calling it a blow to BOJ credibility and traders rushing to test the central bank’s new red line on bond yields. BOJ watchers including Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting’s Shinichiro Kobayashi say Kuroda erred by appearing to back track on recent policy guidance without warning. Swaps traders are already betting the BOJ will be forced to abandon its new yield cap on 10-year bonds, signaling a 0.8% rate may be possible at any time.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is facing mounting criticism over his latest shock policy decision, with several prominent economists calling it a blow to BOJ credibility and traders rushing to test the central bank’s new red line on bond yields. BOJ watchers including Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting’s Shinichiro Kobayashi say Kuroda erred by appearing to back track on recent policy guidance without warning. Swaps traders are already betting the BOJ will be forced to abandon its new yield cap on 10-year bonds, signaling a 0.8% rate may be possible at any time.
Bottom-line: 100여년에 가까운 미국 주식시장 역사를 되돌아 볼 때, 확률적으로 올해에 이어 내년까지 지수 수익률이 손실을 기록하긴 어려움. 다만, 2년 이상 손실을 기록했던 단 4번의 경우(대공황, 2차 세계대전, 석유 파동, 닷컴 버블) 첫 해보다 두번째 해의 손실이 더 컸고, 평균 -24%에 달함. 이는 올해 약 -20%의 손실을 상회하는 것임.
Consecutive down years are rare for US stocks, so after this year’s drop, there’s only a low probability they will decline again in 2023. Yet if they do, history shows that investors will have to brace for another very unpleasant 12 months. Since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has only fallen for two straight years on four occasions: The Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the start of this century. In the benchmark’s almost 100-year history, such occasions are clear outliers. Yet when they have occurred, drops in the second year have always been deeper than in the first, with an average decline of 24%. That would exceed this year’s slide of about 20% to date.
Consecutive down years are rare for US stocks, so after this year’s drop, there’s only a low probability they will decline again in 2023. Yet if they do, history shows that investors will have to brace for another very unpleasant 12 months. Since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has only fallen for two straight years on four occasions: The Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the start of this century. In the benchmark’s almost 100-year history, such occasions are clear outliers. Yet when they have occurred, drops in the second year have always been deeper than in the first, with an average decline of 24%. That would exceed this year’s slide of about 20% to date.
Bottom-line: 미국 중앙은행이 공식적으로 내년 정책금리를 5% 위까지 인상하겠다 했음에도 불구, 시장 참여자들은 유례없는 인플레이션을 진압하기 위한 중앙은행의 노력을 지속 과소평가하고 있음. 모건스탠리는 시장 가격에 긴축적 통화정책이 충분히 반영됐다는데 회의적이며, 중앙은행의 목소리에 보다 귀를 열어두고 있어야 할 것이라 주장함.
Morgan Stanley’s Caron Says Markets Are Wrong on Fed Hikes. Markets aren’t prepared for how far US central bankers are willing to go to tame the hottest inflation in a generation, according to Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron. Even though Federal Reserve officials are predicting raising interest rates above 5% next year, traders continue to underprice the future path of policy tightening, the New York-based bank’s chief fixed-income strategist said in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday. “I don’t believe the hiking cycles are sufficiently priced in,” Caron said. “What’s priced in is that people expect rates to come down and I think we need to listen to what the central bankers are saying” and their worries about inflation.
Morgan Stanley’s Caron Says Markets Are Wrong on Fed Hikes. Markets aren’t prepared for how far US central bankers are willing to go to tame the hottest inflation in a generation, according to Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron. Even though Federal Reserve officials are predicting raising interest rates above 5% next year, traders continue to underprice the future path of policy tightening, the New York-based bank’s chief fixed-income strategist said in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday. “I don’t believe the hiking cycles are sufficiently priced in,” Caron said. “What’s priced in is that people expect rates to come down and I think we need to listen to what the central bankers are saying” and their worries about inflation.
Macro Trader
개인적으로 애널리스트에게 고견을 구하면서 그에게 가격이란 사후적 값이 정답에 가까웠니 아니었니를 논하는 것은 의미없다고 봄. 애널리스트가 보고서를 작성하는데 투입되는 고민, 그를 통해 만들어 낸 근거, 그리고 고민과 근거 속에 제시하는 투자의 결론을 받아들일지 말지는 선택은 스스로 하면 되는 것임. 그 누구도 비어있는 엑셀을 열고서 Sheet1이라고 된 텅 빈 공간에 회사의 비지니스 모델을 이해하고, 변수를 투입하고, 그를 통해 근거와 추정, 끝으로…
제가 올 한 해 가장 많이 만나 도움을 얻은 분들께 드리고 싶었던 말입니다. 행복한 연말 보내세요! 🙇🏻♂️
Bottom-line: 특별한 대책을 마련치 않고 갑작스럽게 선회 한 중국의 바이러스 정책 때문에 감염 환자가 급증하는 가운데, 항바이러스제와 같은 약품 공급 부족사태가 발생하고 있음. 이에 따라 중국에서는 온라인과 사회관계망을 통해 접근하는 암시장을 통해 약품을 구하려고, 그 와중에 중국에 판매가 승인되지 않은 약품까지 유통되고 있는 것으로 추정됨.
As Covid-19 infections soar across China, a shortage of antiviral medicines like Pfizer Inc.’s Paxlovid appears to be spurring people to turn to the black market. The country’s abrupt U-turn on Covid Zero earlier this month surprised health experts and residents, as officials appear to have done little planning for the inevitable rise in cases that comes with reopening. That includes easy access to antiviral therapies that can be used by people who test positive and are at higher risk of hospitalization, like the elderly. The worsening outbreak is boosting demand for such treatments, but Chinese have found the drugs in short supply across the increasingly strained health-care system. People are seeking out online sales channels to source generic versions of the drugs made elsewhere and not approved for sale in China, social media posts and newspaper reports show.
As Covid-19 infections soar across China, a shortage of antiviral medicines like Pfizer Inc.’s Paxlovid appears to be spurring people to turn to the black market. The country’s abrupt U-turn on Covid Zero earlier this month surprised health experts and residents, as officials appear to have done little planning for the inevitable rise in cases that comes with reopening. That includes easy access to antiviral therapies that can be used by people who test positive and are at higher risk of hospitalization, like the elderly. The worsening outbreak is boosting demand for such treatments, but Chinese have found the drugs in short supply across the increasingly strained health-care system. People are seeking out online sales channels to source generic versions of the drugs made elsewhere and not approved for sale in China, social media posts and newspaper reports show.
Bottom-line: 중국은 1월부터 해외에서 입국한 사람에게도 격리를 해제하고 사흘 간 모니터링만 할 것으로 보임. 이는 강력한 바이러스 억제정책 선회의 끝자락까지 닿는 결정이 될 것임. 이 “0+3” 정책(격리 0일, 감시 3일)에서 모니터링을 어떻게 할지 구체적이진 않으나, 이를 포함한 1월의 정책이 최종 협의 과정에 있다 함.
China plans to cut quarantine requirements for overseas travelers in January, according to people familiar with the matter, as the country dismantles the last vestiges of its Covid Zero policy. Officials are considering a “0+3” policy, where the requirement to spend time in a quarantine hotel or isolation facility would be scrapped, and arrivals into the country instead subject to three days of monitoring, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are not public. It’s not immediately clear what form that monitoring may take, or if it would require quarantining at home. Details of the plan are still being finalized, including when it will start in January.
China plans to cut quarantine requirements for overseas travelers in January, according to people familiar with the matter, as the country dismantles the last vestiges of its Covid Zero policy. Officials are considering a “0+3” policy, where the requirement to spend time in a quarantine hotel or isolation facility would be scrapped, and arrivals into the country instead subject to three days of monitoring, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are not public. It’s not immediately clear what form that monitoring may take, or if it would require quarantining at home. Details of the plan are still being finalized, including when it will start in January.
Bottom-line: 예상보다 강한 고용시장을 역사적으로 낮은 수준에 여전히 머무르고 있는 실업수당청구건수가 다시 한 번 확인시켜줌. 11월 기술주는 인플레이션이 진정되며 중앙은행이 금리인상 폭을 낮추고, 나아가 인상을 멈출 것이란 기대로 상승했지만, 그 폭을 모두 뒤집으며 12월 -8.93% 하락했음. 이 때문에 대형 기술주 중심의 나스닥 100 지수는 20년 전 닷컴 버블 이후 최악의 12월 수익률을 기록할 처지에 놓임.
Technology stocks are headed for their worst December since the bursting of the dotcom bubble two decades ago as optimism about potential relief from Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes faded on signs of labor-market strength. The Nasdaq 100 Index sank 2.5% Thursday after a report showed US jobless claims remained near historically low levels, underscoring that the Fed has plenty of reasons to keep tightening policy. Separate data showed a key inflation gauge was up slightly from the prior reading. Add to that weak results from chipmaker Micron Technologies Inc., and the session turned into a brutal one for equity bulls, who are again fretting over the risk of a potential recession. The tech benchmark, laden with companies like Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp., has dropped 8.93% this month, more than erasing a November rally fueled by hopes that cooling inflation would set the stage for even slower Fed hikes and potentially a pause next year. It’s down about one-third this year.
Technology stocks are headed for their worst December since the bursting of the dotcom bubble two decades ago as optimism about potential relief from Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes faded on signs of labor-market strength. The Nasdaq 100 Index sank 2.5% Thursday after a report showed US jobless claims remained near historically low levels, underscoring that the Fed has plenty of reasons to keep tightening policy. Separate data showed a key inflation gauge was up slightly from the prior reading. Add to that weak results from chipmaker Micron Technologies Inc., and the session turned into a brutal one for equity bulls, who are again fretting over the risk of a potential recession. The tech benchmark, laden with companies like Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp., has dropped 8.93% this month, more than erasing a November rally fueled by hopes that cooling inflation would set the stage for even slower Fed hikes and potentially a pause next year. It’s down about one-third this year.