Bottom-line: 100여년에 가까운 미국 주식시장 역사를 되돌아 볼 때, 확률적으로 올해에 이어 내년까지 지수 수익률이 손실을 기록하긴 어려움. 다만, 2년 이상 손실을 기록했던 단 4번의 경우(대공황, 2차 세계대전, 석유 파동, 닷컴 버블) 첫 해보다 두번째 해의 손실이 더 컸고, 평균 -24%에 달함. 이는 올해 약 -20%의 손실을 상회하는 것임.
Consecutive down years are rare for US stocks, so after this year’s drop, there’s only a low probability they will decline again in 2023. Yet if they do, history shows that investors will have to brace for another very unpleasant 12 months. Since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has only fallen for two straight years on four occasions: The Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the start of this century. In the benchmark’s almost 100-year history, such occasions are clear outliers. Yet when they have occurred, drops in the second year have always been deeper than in the first, with an average decline of 24%. That would exceed this year’s slide of about 20% to date.
Consecutive down years are rare for US stocks, so after this year’s drop, there’s only a low probability they will decline again in 2023. Yet if they do, history shows that investors will have to brace for another very unpleasant 12 months. Since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has only fallen for two straight years on four occasions: The Great Depression, World War II, the 1970s oil crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble at the start of this century. In the benchmark’s almost 100-year history, such occasions are clear outliers. Yet when they have occurred, drops in the second year have always been deeper than in the first, with an average decline of 24%. That would exceed this year’s slide of about 20% to date.
Bottom-line: 미국 중앙은행이 공식적으로 내년 정책금리를 5% 위까지 인상하겠다 했음에도 불구, 시장 참여자들은 유례없는 인플레이션을 진압하기 위한 중앙은행의 노력을 지속 과소평가하고 있음. 모건스탠리는 시장 가격에 긴축적 통화정책이 충분히 반영됐다는데 회의적이며, 중앙은행의 목소리에 보다 귀를 열어두고 있어야 할 것이라 주장함.
Morgan Stanley’s Caron Says Markets Are Wrong on Fed Hikes. Markets aren’t prepared for how far US central bankers are willing to go to tame the hottest inflation in a generation, according to Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron. Even though Federal Reserve officials are predicting raising interest rates above 5% next year, traders continue to underprice the future path of policy tightening, the New York-based bank’s chief fixed-income strategist said in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday. “I don’t believe the hiking cycles are sufficiently priced in,” Caron said. “What’s priced in is that people expect rates to come down and I think we need to listen to what the central bankers are saying” and their worries about inflation.
Morgan Stanley’s Caron Says Markets Are Wrong on Fed Hikes. Markets aren’t prepared for how far US central bankers are willing to go to tame the hottest inflation in a generation, according to Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron. Even though Federal Reserve officials are predicting raising interest rates above 5% next year, traders continue to underprice the future path of policy tightening, the New York-based bank’s chief fixed-income strategist said in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday. “I don’t believe the hiking cycles are sufficiently priced in,” Caron said. “What’s priced in is that people expect rates to come down and I think we need to listen to what the central bankers are saying” and their worries about inflation.
Macro Trader
개인적으로 애널리스트에게 고견을 구하면서 그에게 가격이란 사후적 값이 정답에 가까웠니 아니었니를 논하는 것은 의미없다고 봄. 애널리스트가 보고서를 작성하는데 투입되는 고민, 그를 통해 만들어 낸 근거, 그리고 고민과 근거 속에 제시하는 투자의 결론을 받아들일지 말지는 선택은 스스로 하면 되는 것임. 그 누구도 비어있는 엑셀을 열고서 Sheet1이라고 된 텅 빈 공간에 회사의 비지니스 모델을 이해하고, 변수를 투입하고, 그를 통해 근거와 추정, 끝으로…
제가 올 한 해 가장 많이 만나 도움을 얻은 분들께 드리고 싶었던 말입니다. 행복한 연말 보내세요! 🙇🏻♂️
Bottom-line: 특별한 대책을 마련치 않고 갑작스럽게 선회 한 중국의 바이러스 정책 때문에 감염 환자가 급증하는 가운데, 항바이러스제와 같은 약품 공급 부족사태가 발생하고 있음. 이에 따라 중국에서는 온라인과 사회관계망을 통해 접근하는 암시장을 통해 약품을 구하려고, 그 와중에 중국에 판매가 승인되지 않은 약품까지 유통되고 있는 것으로 추정됨.
As Covid-19 infections soar across China, a shortage of antiviral medicines like Pfizer Inc.’s Paxlovid appears to be spurring people to turn to the black market. The country’s abrupt U-turn on Covid Zero earlier this month surprised health experts and residents, as officials appear to have done little planning for the inevitable rise in cases that comes with reopening. That includes easy access to antiviral therapies that can be used by people who test positive and are at higher risk of hospitalization, like the elderly. The worsening outbreak is boosting demand for such treatments, but Chinese have found the drugs in short supply across the increasingly strained health-care system. People are seeking out online sales channels to source generic versions of the drugs made elsewhere and not approved for sale in China, social media posts and newspaper reports show.
As Covid-19 infections soar across China, a shortage of antiviral medicines like Pfizer Inc.’s Paxlovid appears to be spurring people to turn to the black market. The country’s abrupt U-turn on Covid Zero earlier this month surprised health experts and residents, as officials appear to have done little planning for the inevitable rise in cases that comes with reopening. That includes easy access to antiviral therapies that can be used by people who test positive and are at higher risk of hospitalization, like the elderly. The worsening outbreak is boosting demand for such treatments, but Chinese have found the drugs in short supply across the increasingly strained health-care system. People are seeking out online sales channels to source generic versions of the drugs made elsewhere and not approved for sale in China, social media posts and newspaper reports show.
Bottom-line: 중국은 1월부터 해외에서 입국한 사람에게도 격리를 해제하고 사흘 간 모니터링만 할 것으로 보임. 이는 강력한 바이러스 억제정책 선회의 끝자락까지 닿는 결정이 될 것임. 이 “0+3” 정책(격리 0일, 감시 3일)에서 모니터링을 어떻게 할지 구체적이진 않으나, 이를 포함한 1월의 정책이 최종 협의 과정에 있다 함.
China plans to cut quarantine requirements for overseas travelers in January, according to people familiar with the matter, as the country dismantles the last vestiges of its Covid Zero policy. Officials are considering a “0+3” policy, where the requirement to spend time in a quarantine hotel or isolation facility would be scrapped, and arrivals into the country instead subject to three days of monitoring, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are not public. It’s not immediately clear what form that monitoring may take, or if it would require quarantining at home. Details of the plan are still being finalized, including when it will start in January.
China plans to cut quarantine requirements for overseas travelers in January, according to people familiar with the matter, as the country dismantles the last vestiges of its Covid Zero policy. Officials are considering a “0+3” policy, where the requirement to spend time in a quarantine hotel or isolation facility would be scrapped, and arrivals into the country instead subject to three days of monitoring, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are not public. It’s not immediately clear what form that monitoring may take, or if it would require quarantining at home. Details of the plan are still being finalized, including when it will start in January.
Bottom-line: 예상보다 강한 고용시장을 역사적으로 낮은 수준에 여전히 머무르고 있는 실업수당청구건수가 다시 한 번 확인시켜줌. 11월 기술주는 인플레이션이 진정되며 중앙은행이 금리인상 폭을 낮추고, 나아가 인상을 멈출 것이란 기대로 상승했지만, 그 폭을 모두 뒤집으며 12월 -8.93% 하락했음. 이 때문에 대형 기술주 중심의 나스닥 100 지수는 20년 전 닷컴 버블 이후 최악의 12월 수익률을 기록할 처지에 놓임.
Technology stocks are headed for their worst December since the bursting of the dotcom bubble two decades ago as optimism about potential relief from Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes faded on signs of labor-market strength. The Nasdaq 100 Index sank 2.5% Thursday after a report showed US jobless claims remained near historically low levels, underscoring that the Fed has plenty of reasons to keep tightening policy. Separate data showed a key inflation gauge was up slightly from the prior reading. Add to that weak results from chipmaker Micron Technologies Inc., and the session turned into a brutal one for equity bulls, who are again fretting over the risk of a potential recession. The tech benchmark, laden with companies like Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp., has dropped 8.93% this month, more than erasing a November rally fueled by hopes that cooling inflation would set the stage for even slower Fed hikes and potentially a pause next year. It’s down about one-third this year.
Technology stocks are headed for their worst December since the bursting of the dotcom bubble two decades ago as optimism about potential relief from Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes faded on signs of labor-market strength. The Nasdaq 100 Index sank 2.5% Thursday after a report showed US jobless claims remained near historically low levels, underscoring that the Fed has plenty of reasons to keep tightening policy. Separate data showed a key inflation gauge was up slightly from the prior reading. Add to that weak results from chipmaker Micron Technologies Inc., and the session turned into a brutal one for equity bulls, who are again fretting over the risk of a potential recession. The tech benchmark, laden with companies like Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp., has dropped 8.93% this month, more than erasing a November rally fueled by hopes that cooling inflation would set the stage for even slower Fed hikes and potentially a pause next year. It’s down about one-third this year.
Bottom-line: 일본 내 물가 상승이 가속화 되면서 중앙은행이 통화정책 변화를 통한 시장 충격을 다시 한 번 줄 가능성이 있음.
Japan’s key inflation gauge further accelerated to the fastest pace since 1981, an outcome that will continue to fuel speculation the Bank of Japan will surprise markets again with policy change down the line.
Japan’s key inflation gauge further accelerated to the fastest pace since 1981, an outcome that will continue to fuel speculation the Bank of Japan will surprise markets again with policy change down the line.
What Gift Do Equity Traders Want the Most?
Anonymous Poll
30%
1. Federal Reserve cutting rates
13%
2. Earnings recovery for big tech companies
10%
3. China growth rebounding toward 6% GDP
3%
4. US dollar to stay on downward path
25%
5. Falling global inflation
2%
6. Resurgence for crypto currencies
19%
7. End of war in Ukraine
Implication: 이번 물가지표에서는 상품 가격 관련의 물가는 하락했지만, 주택과 같은 서비스 관련 물가는 완화되지 않고 있다는게 문제였음. 중앙은행이 주시하고 있는 것은 주택과 같은 서비스 항목이기 때문임.
This morning’s mixed data highlight the divergence between still-climbing costs for services, like housing (a key focus for the Fed), and falling goods prices. Cheaper gasoline has clearly been cheering consumer sentiment, but the overall direction of inflation remains troubling. That complicates the Fed’s dilemma as it seeks to cool, but not crush, the economy — and poses risk for assets like equities.
This morning’s mixed data highlight the divergence between still-climbing costs for services, like housing (a key focus for the Fed), and falling goods prices. Cheaper gasoline has clearly been cheering consumer sentiment, but the overall direction of inflation remains troubling. That complicates the Fed’s dilemma as it seeks to cool, but not crush, the economy — and poses risk for assets like equities.
The S&P 500 trimmed some declines while yields on 10-year Treasuries retreated slightly after better-than-expected UMich sentiment and inflation figures.
China will scrap all quarantine measures for Covid-19 from Jan. 8, including requirements for inbound visitors, according to the National Health Commission.
Implication: COVID-19와 관련 된 봉쇄 완전 해제의 의미
China will downgrade Covid control measures to the ‘Category-B’ level. China currently classifies Covid-19 as a Category-B disease, but is controlling it like a Category-A disease.
China will downgrade Covid control measures to the ‘Category-B’ level. China currently classifies Covid-19 as a Category-B disease, but is controlling it like a Category-A disease.