Macro Trader
9) 국채 수익률 곡선이 다시 정상화 되었는지, 여전히 역전인지에 따라, 중앙은행의 금리인상 주기가 끝나도 주식 수익률은 전혀 다르게 펼쳐진다.
끝. 다음에 보통 어펜딕스가 붙는다. 이건 어펜딕스.
Bottom-line: 한국은 반도체, 디스플레이, 정유와 같은 핵심 산업을 영위하고 있으므로, 수출 지표가 세계 경제의 바로미터가 될 수 있음. 오늘 발표 된 12월 한국 수출 통계는 여전한 수출 감소를 보였고, 금융위기 이후 첫 무역적자를 연간으로 기록하게 되었음. 이는 중앙은행의 금리인상에 따라 수요가 냉각되고 있다는 신호임.
South Korean exports are a major barometer of global commerce and tech demand as the nation produces key items such as chips, displays and refined oil. South Korea’s exports continued to decline in December in a sign of cooling global demand as higher interest rates weigh on consumption. Overseas shipments dropped 9.5% from a year earlier, compared with economists’ forecasts for a 11.1% decline, according to data released Sunday by the trade ministry. Imports fell 2.4%. The trade shortfall was $4.7 billion in December, resulting in the first annual deficit since the global financial crisis as elevated oil prices battered many trade-dependent nations.
South Korean exports are a major barometer of global commerce and tech demand as the nation produces key items such as chips, displays and refined oil. South Korea’s exports continued to decline in December in a sign of cooling global demand as higher interest rates weigh on consumption. Overseas shipments dropped 9.5% from a year earlier, compared with economists’ forecasts for a 11.1% decline, according to data released Sunday by the trade ministry. Imports fell 2.4%. The trade shortfall was $4.7 billion in December, resulting in the first annual deficit since the global financial crisis as elevated oil prices battered many trade-dependent nations.
Docent: 제이피모건자산운용의 연간 전망에 흥미로운 내용이 많지만, 그 중 주식시장의 저점을 알려주는 것은 무엇인가에 대해 다루자면, 1950년부터 시작해 현재까지의 큰 폭의 주식시장 하락 이후 상승 과정 7번을 분석한 결과, 경제성장률, 고용, 기업 이익 그 어떤 것의 저점도 주식시장의 저점과 일치하지 않았음. 가장 훌륭했던 지표는 ISM 제조업 설문이었음. 특히 기업 이익의 경우 주가를 가장 후행하여 주식시장이 폭락을 넘어서 새로운 고점을 형성할 때 즈음에서야 저점이 나타났음.
As shown below, in the history of US recessions (with the exception of the dot-com collapse of 2001), equity markets bottomed well before the bottom in GDP, payrolls, S&P 500 earnings and housing starts and the peak in household/corporate delinquencies. The ISM survey has been the most reliable coincident indicator of a bottom in equities, which is why we pay so much attention to it.
As shown below, in the history of US recessions (with the exception of the dot-com collapse of 2001), equity markets bottomed well before the bottom in GDP, payrolls, S&P 500 earnings and housing starts and the peak in household/corporate delinquencies. The ISM survey has been the most reliable coincident indicator of a bottom in equities, which is why we pay so much attention to it.
Bottom-line: 달러의 강세는 작년부터 눈에 익은 광경임. 다만, 이와 동시에 특히 주식, 금과 같은 다른 자산이 상승하는 것은 어떻게 이해할 수 있을까. 이런 현상들에 대해 올해 펼쳐질 일련의 서사는 아직 명확하게 드러나진 않았음.
A rising dollar was a familiar sight last year, so traders don’t seem too surprised by the sharp rise in the trade-weighted index this morning. What is eye-catching though is how resilient other assets, notably stocks and gold, are in the face of a rising US currency. I guess it’ll take a while before we can make sense of the new year’s narrative.
A rising dollar was a familiar sight last year, so traders don’t seem too surprised by the sharp rise in the trade-weighted index this morning. What is eye-catching though is how resilient other assets, notably stocks and gold, are in the face of a rising US currency. I guess it’ll take a while before we can make sense of the new year’s narrative.
Implication: 중국이 반도체 산업의 독립적 위치를 위해 수년 간 많은 비용을 투자했던데 반해 이렇다 할 결론이 없자 다른 대안을 모색 중인 것으로 보임.
China is pausing massive investments aimed at building a chip industry to compete with the US, as a nationwide Covid resurgence strains the world’s No. 2 economy and Beijing’s finances. Top officials are discussing ways to move away from costly subsidies that have so far borne little fruit and encouraged both graft and American sanctions, people familiar with the matter said. While some continue to push for incentives of as much as 1 trillion yuan ($145 billion), other policymakers have lost their taste for an investment-led approach that’s not yielded the results anticipated, the people said. Instead, they’re seeking alternative ways to assist homegrown chipmakers, such as lowering the cost of semiconductor materials, the people said, asking not to be identified revealing sensitive negotiations.
China is pausing massive investments aimed at building a chip industry to compete with the US, as a nationwide Covid resurgence strains the world’s No. 2 economy and Beijing’s finances. Top officials are discussing ways to move away from costly subsidies that have so far borne little fruit and encouraged both graft and American sanctions, people familiar with the matter said. While some continue to push for incentives of as much as 1 trillion yuan ($145 billion), other policymakers have lost their taste for an investment-led approach that’s not yielded the results anticipated, the people said. Instead, they’re seeking alternative ways to assist homegrown chipmakers, such as lowering the cost of semiconductor materials, the people said, asking not to be identified revealing sensitive negotiations.
Bottom-line: 너무 거대해지면, 죽도록 놔둘 수 없음. ‘Too Big, To Fail'.
Chinese authorities are planning to usher in further support measures to ease liquidity stress at some of the nation’s too-big-to-fail developers as the property downturn persists, according to people familiar with the matter. The Financial Stability and Development Committee told the banking and securities regulators late last week to help shore up the balance sheets of some “systemically important” developers, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. In order to be eligible, firms need to receive “unqualified” auditing reviews to show they have reliable financial statements and have no record of major violations including defaulting on publicly-issued debt, said the people.
Chinese authorities are planning to usher in further support measures to ease liquidity stress at some of the nation’s too-big-to-fail developers as the property downturn persists, according to people familiar with the matter. The Financial Stability and Development Committee told the banking and securities regulators late last week to help shore up the balance sheets of some “systemically important” developers, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. In order to be eligible, firms need to receive “unqualified” auditing reviews to show they have reliable financial statements and have no record of major violations including defaulting on publicly-issued debt, said the people.
Docent: 이번에 공개 된 통화정책의사록에서 작년과 동일하게 금융시장환경이 완화 되면서 인플레이션을 통제하려는 노력에 방해가 될 것을 우려함. 즉, 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 금리를 올릴수록 긴축적인 금융환경이 되어야 하는데, 시장 참여자들은 이에 대해 금리인상의 끝이 다가왔다거나, 경기침체 우려로 인하까지 할 수 있다고 반응하면서 의도와 다르게 되는 것임. 위원회는 이를 용납해서는 안된다고 생각함이 의사록을 통해 밝혀짐.
Federal Reserve officials last month affirmed their resolve to bring down inflation, cautioning that an “unwarranted” loosening of financial conditions would hurt their efforts to achieve price stability. Going into the meeting, markets were pricing in interest-rate cuts in the second half of 2023. “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the committee’s reaction function, would complicate the committee’s effort to restore price stability,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 13-14 meeting released in Washington on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve officials last month affirmed their resolve to bring down inflation, cautioning that an “unwarranted” loosening of financial conditions would hurt their efforts to achieve price stability. Going into the meeting, markets were pricing in interest-rate cuts in the second half of 2023. “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the committee’s reaction function, would complicate the committee’s effort to restore price stability,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 13-14 meeting released in Washington on Wednesday.
Bottom-line: '낙서‘닥
The Fed has at least 100 bps of rate hikes to do in 2023, Neel Kashkari says. Last month's FOMC minutes cautioned against an "unwarranted" loosening of financial conditions that would hurt price stabilization efforts and emphasized getting back toward the 2% target. No official predicted rate cuts this year.
The Fed has at least 100 bps of rate hikes to do in 2023, Neel Kashkari says. Last month's FOMC minutes cautioned against an "unwarranted" loosening of financial conditions that would hurt price stabilization efforts and emphasized getting back toward the 2% target. No official predicted rate cuts this year.
Bottom-line: 미국 중앙은행이 1973년 이후 가장 큰 폭의 정책금리를 인상하는 동안에도, 아주 오래되고 지나칠 정도로 완화적인 통화정책을 고수하던 일본 중앙은행도 이제 금리 정상화에 돌입할 것으로 투자자들은 베팅 중임. 2020년 말 18조 4천억 달러에 달했던 제로 금리의 채권들은 오늘날 마지막 남았던 일본 채권도 양의 수익률로 전환되며 사라지게 되었음.
The world’s pile of negative-yielding debt has vanished, as Japanese bonds finally joined global peers in offering zero or positive income. The global stock of bonds where investors received sub-zero yields peaked at $18.4 trillion in late 2020, according to Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index of the debt, when central banks worldwide were keeping benchmark rates at or below zero and buying bonds to ensure yields were repressed. Japan’s yields were the last to leave the sub-zero club because policy makers there had stuck for so long with ultra-loose settings brought in even before the pandemic. Investors are betting the world’s last uber-dovish monetary authority is inching toward normalization. The European Central Bank exited its negative-rate policy in July, followed by its counterparts in Switzerland and Denmark in September. The Federal Reserve, meantime, raised its benchmark by 4.25 percentage points last year, the most since 1973.
The world’s pile of negative-yielding debt has vanished, as Japanese bonds finally joined global peers in offering zero or positive income. The global stock of bonds where investors received sub-zero yields peaked at $18.4 trillion in late 2020, according to Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index of the debt, when central banks worldwide were keeping benchmark rates at or below zero and buying bonds to ensure yields were repressed. Japan’s yields were the last to leave the sub-zero club because policy makers there had stuck for so long with ultra-loose settings brought in even before the pandemic. Investors are betting the world’s last uber-dovish monetary authority is inching toward normalization. The European Central Bank exited its negative-rate policy in July, followed by its counterparts in Switzerland and Denmark in September. The Federal Reserve, meantime, raised its benchmark by 4.25 percentage points last year, the most since 1973.