Implication: 중국이 반도체 산업의 독립적 위치를 위해 수년 간 많은 비용을 투자했던데 반해 이렇다 할 결론이 없자 다른 대안을 모색 중인 것으로 보임.
China is pausing massive investments aimed at building a chip industry to compete with the US, as a nationwide Covid resurgence strains the world’s No. 2 economy and Beijing’s finances. Top officials are discussing ways to move away from costly subsidies that have so far borne little fruit and encouraged both graft and American sanctions, people familiar with the matter said. While some continue to push for incentives of as much as 1 trillion yuan ($145 billion), other policymakers have lost their taste for an investment-led approach that’s not yielded the results anticipated, the people said. Instead, they’re seeking alternative ways to assist homegrown chipmakers, such as lowering the cost of semiconductor materials, the people said, asking not to be identified revealing sensitive negotiations.
China is pausing massive investments aimed at building a chip industry to compete with the US, as a nationwide Covid resurgence strains the world’s No. 2 economy and Beijing’s finances. Top officials are discussing ways to move away from costly subsidies that have so far borne little fruit and encouraged both graft and American sanctions, people familiar with the matter said. While some continue to push for incentives of as much as 1 trillion yuan ($145 billion), other policymakers have lost their taste for an investment-led approach that’s not yielded the results anticipated, the people said. Instead, they’re seeking alternative ways to assist homegrown chipmakers, such as lowering the cost of semiconductor materials, the people said, asking not to be identified revealing sensitive negotiations.
Bottom-line: 너무 거대해지면, 죽도록 놔둘 수 없음. ‘Too Big, To Fail'.
Chinese authorities are planning to usher in further support measures to ease liquidity stress at some of the nation’s too-big-to-fail developers as the property downturn persists, according to people familiar with the matter. The Financial Stability and Development Committee told the banking and securities regulators late last week to help shore up the balance sheets of some “systemically important” developers, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. In order to be eligible, firms need to receive “unqualified” auditing reviews to show they have reliable financial statements and have no record of major violations including defaulting on publicly-issued debt, said the people.
Chinese authorities are planning to usher in further support measures to ease liquidity stress at some of the nation’s too-big-to-fail developers as the property downturn persists, according to people familiar with the matter. The Financial Stability and Development Committee told the banking and securities regulators late last week to help shore up the balance sheets of some “systemically important” developers, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. In order to be eligible, firms need to receive “unqualified” auditing reviews to show they have reliable financial statements and have no record of major violations including defaulting on publicly-issued debt, said the people.
Docent: 이번에 공개 된 통화정책의사록에서 작년과 동일하게 금융시장환경이 완화 되면서 인플레이션을 통제하려는 노력에 방해가 될 것을 우려함. 즉, 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 금리를 올릴수록 긴축적인 금융환경이 되어야 하는데, 시장 참여자들은 이에 대해 금리인상의 끝이 다가왔다거나, 경기침체 우려로 인하까지 할 수 있다고 반응하면서 의도와 다르게 되는 것임. 위원회는 이를 용납해서는 안된다고 생각함이 의사록을 통해 밝혀짐.
Federal Reserve officials last month affirmed their resolve to bring down inflation, cautioning that an “unwarranted” loosening of financial conditions would hurt their efforts to achieve price stability. Going into the meeting, markets were pricing in interest-rate cuts in the second half of 2023. “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the committee’s reaction function, would complicate the committee’s effort to restore price stability,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 13-14 meeting released in Washington on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve officials last month affirmed their resolve to bring down inflation, cautioning that an “unwarranted” loosening of financial conditions would hurt their efforts to achieve price stability. Going into the meeting, markets were pricing in interest-rate cuts in the second half of 2023. “Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the committee’s reaction function, would complicate the committee’s effort to restore price stability,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 13-14 meeting released in Washington on Wednesday.
Bottom-line: '낙서‘닥
The Fed has at least 100 bps of rate hikes to do in 2023, Neel Kashkari says. Last month's FOMC minutes cautioned against an "unwarranted" loosening of financial conditions that would hurt price stabilization efforts and emphasized getting back toward the 2% target. No official predicted rate cuts this year.
The Fed has at least 100 bps of rate hikes to do in 2023, Neel Kashkari says. Last month's FOMC minutes cautioned against an "unwarranted" loosening of financial conditions that would hurt price stabilization efforts and emphasized getting back toward the 2% target. No official predicted rate cuts this year.
Bottom-line: 미국 중앙은행이 1973년 이후 가장 큰 폭의 정책금리를 인상하는 동안에도, 아주 오래되고 지나칠 정도로 완화적인 통화정책을 고수하던 일본 중앙은행도 이제 금리 정상화에 돌입할 것으로 투자자들은 베팅 중임. 2020년 말 18조 4천억 달러에 달했던 제로 금리의 채권들은 오늘날 마지막 남았던 일본 채권도 양의 수익률로 전환되며 사라지게 되었음.
The world’s pile of negative-yielding debt has vanished, as Japanese bonds finally joined global peers in offering zero or positive income. The global stock of bonds where investors received sub-zero yields peaked at $18.4 trillion in late 2020, according to Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index of the debt, when central banks worldwide were keeping benchmark rates at or below zero and buying bonds to ensure yields were repressed. Japan’s yields were the last to leave the sub-zero club because policy makers there had stuck for so long with ultra-loose settings brought in even before the pandemic. Investors are betting the world’s last uber-dovish monetary authority is inching toward normalization. The European Central Bank exited its negative-rate policy in July, followed by its counterparts in Switzerland and Denmark in September. The Federal Reserve, meantime, raised its benchmark by 4.25 percentage points last year, the most since 1973.
The world’s pile of negative-yielding debt has vanished, as Japanese bonds finally joined global peers in offering zero or positive income. The global stock of bonds where investors received sub-zero yields peaked at $18.4 trillion in late 2020, according to Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index of the debt, when central banks worldwide were keeping benchmark rates at or below zero and buying bonds to ensure yields were repressed. Japan’s yields were the last to leave the sub-zero club because policy makers there had stuck for so long with ultra-loose settings brought in even before the pandemic. Investors are betting the world’s last uber-dovish monetary authority is inching toward normalization. The European Central Bank exited its negative-rate policy in July, followed by its counterparts in Switzerland and Denmark in September. The Federal Reserve, meantime, raised its benchmark by 4.25 percentage points last year, the most since 1973.
6) 그럼에도 불구하고, 이런 단서들이 중앙은행이 틀렸다고 확신하는데 충분하지는 않음. 차라리 우리는 지난 12개월을 돌아봐야 할 것 같은데, 낙관적인 의견을 뒷받침할 수 있는 데이터를 찾는 것보다 중앙은행 인사들의 의지가 담긴 의사록에서 그 의도를 주의깊게 파악하는 것이 더욱 현명했기 때문임. 그리고 364일이 지난 지금도, 그 전의 의사록과 크게 다를 바가 없다고 보여짐. 끝.
7) 모건스탠리의 의사록 회고 제목은 'Not Tight Enough', 금융시장환경지수를 살펴보면 그 구성에는 국채, 주식, 유가, 달러, 신용이 포함됨. 최근 계속적인 긴축정책에도 실제 금융시장환경지수는 완화되었고, 2022년 마지막 통화정책회의를 통해 겨우 -21bp 긴축시켰지만, 11월 이후 해당 회의까지 +160bp가 완화되었었음. 그러므로 이번 의사록에서 중앙은행 인사들이 이러한 시장 반응이 그들의 행복에 방해가 되고, 실제로 상황을 더욱 나쁘게 만들었다고 함(easing in financial conditions fueled more-hawkish policy projections)을 이해할 수 있는 부분임.
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Asset Classes in 2022.
Bottom-line: 유럽 지역의 물가가 지난해 8월 이후 처음으로 한자릿수로 돌아오면서 최악의 시기가 지났단 희망을 줌. 다만, 변동이 큰 연료 및 식품을 제외한 물가는 여전히 기록적 수준임을 경계할 수 밖에 없음.
Euro-area inflation returned to single digits for the first time since August, fueling hopes that the bloc’s worst-ever spike in consumer prices has peaked. December’s reading came in at 9.2%, Eurostat said Friday, with slower growth in energy costs behind the moderation. The figure reflects slowdowns in Germany, France, Italy and Spain and was less than the 9.5% that economists polled by Bloomberg had expected. Highlighting how inflation continues to menace Europe’s economy, however, a measure of underlying price pressures that strips out energy and food edged up to a record 5.2%.
Euro-area inflation returned to single digits for the first time since August, fueling hopes that the bloc’s worst-ever spike in consumer prices has peaked. December’s reading came in at 9.2%, Eurostat said Friday, with slower growth in energy costs behind the moderation. The figure reflects slowdowns in Germany, France, Italy and Spain and was less than the 9.5% that economists polled by Bloomberg had expected. Highlighting how inflation continues to menace Europe’s economy, however, a measure of underlying price pressures that strips out energy and food edged up to a record 5.2%.
Docent: 보다 큰 그림을 본다는 것은 어떤 것인지에 대한 도슨트임. 오늘 오후 10시 30분에 발표 될 고용지표에 우리는 예상치를 상회했는지, 하회했는지 혹은 18만개의 일자리 창출에 그치며 고용시장이 냉각되고 있다는데 주목할지도 모름. 하지만 예측치인 20만건보다 낮은 15만건, 또는 더 높은 25만건 사이의 어느 숫자가 나와도 그것이 숲을 보는 것은 아님. 중앙은행은 현재의 3.7% 실업률이 올 한 해 4.6%까지 높아질 것으로 봤기 때문에, 4% 이상의 실업률을 끌어올릴 수 있는지 여부를 봐야 할 것임. 그렇지 않을 경우 중앙은행의 강경한 발언과 행보는 그대로일 것이기 때문임.
We get a dipstick reading on the health of the US labor market today, though this may be one of those occasions when looking at the Big Picture may be useful in estimating how the Fed may be thinking about the economy rather than get lost in a simple “beat” or “miss” parlor game. The median forecast of economists is for employers to have added 202k jobs, but a number that is within 150k to 250k (the standard deviation of the estimates is around 39k) isn’t really going to alter the Fed’s calculus that much. For what it is worth, coming after those ADP numbers perhaps some may be expecting a higher number. What will be really instructive, instead, is whether we got a shocker of a number on the downside — one that will drive up the jobless rate north of 4%. The Fed’s own estimate is for the unemployment rate, now at an incredibly low 3.7%, to shoot up to 4.6% this year. Until we get there, there is not going to be an alignment of demand with supply, which will compel the Fed to stay hawkish with no chance of a pivot. So don’t sweat post-data release homilies like “The jobs market cooled, with employers adding 180,000 jobs” — because that would simply be missing the wood for the trees.
We get a dipstick reading on the health of the US labor market today, though this may be one of those occasions when looking at the Big Picture may be useful in estimating how the Fed may be thinking about the economy rather than get lost in a simple “beat” or “miss” parlor game. The median forecast of economists is for employers to have added 202k jobs, but a number that is within 150k to 250k (the standard deviation of the estimates is around 39k) isn’t really going to alter the Fed’s calculus that much. For what it is worth, coming after those ADP numbers perhaps some may be expecting a higher number. What will be really instructive, instead, is whether we got a shocker of a number on the downside — one that will drive up the jobless rate north of 4%. The Fed’s own estimate is for the unemployment rate, now at an incredibly low 3.7%, to shoot up to 4.6% this year. Until we get there, there is not going to be an alignment of demand with supply, which will compel the Fed to stay hawkish with no chance of a pivot. So don’t sweat post-data release homilies like “The jobs market cooled, with employers adding 180,000 jobs” — because that would simply be missing the wood for the trees.