6) 그럼에도 불구하고, 이런 단서들이 중앙은행이 틀렸다고 확신하는데 충분하지는 않음. 차라리 우리는 지난 12개월을 돌아봐야 할 것 같은데, 낙관적인 의견을 뒷받침할 수 있는 데이터를 찾는 것보다 중앙은행 인사들의 의지가 담긴 의사록에서 그 의도를 주의깊게 파악하는 것이 더욱 현명했기 때문임. 그리고 364일이 지난 지금도, 그 전의 의사록과 크게 다를 바가 없다고 보여짐. 끝.
7) 모건스탠리의 의사록 회고 제목은 'Not Tight Enough', 금융시장환경지수를 살펴보면 그 구성에는 국채, 주식, 유가, 달러, 신용이 포함됨. 최근 계속적인 긴축정책에도 실제 금융시장환경지수는 완화되었고, 2022년 마지막 통화정책회의를 통해 겨우 -21bp 긴축시켰지만, 11월 이후 해당 회의까지 +160bp가 완화되었었음. 그러므로 이번 의사록에서 중앙은행 인사들이 이러한 시장 반응이 그들의 행복에 방해가 되고, 실제로 상황을 더욱 나쁘게 만들었다고 함(easing in financial conditions fueled more-hawkish policy projections)을 이해할 수 있는 부분임.
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Asset Classes in 2022.
Bottom-line: 유럽 지역의 물가가 지난해 8월 이후 처음으로 한자릿수로 돌아오면서 최악의 시기가 지났단 희망을 줌. 다만, 변동이 큰 연료 및 식품을 제외한 물가는 여전히 기록적 수준임을 경계할 수 밖에 없음.
Euro-area inflation returned to single digits for the first time since August, fueling hopes that the bloc’s worst-ever spike in consumer prices has peaked. December’s reading came in at 9.2%, Eurostat said Friday, with slower growth in energy costs behind the moderation. The figure reflects slowdowns in Germany, France, Italy and Spain and was less than the 9.5% that economists polled by Bloomberg had expected. Highlighting how inflation continues to menace Europe’s economy, however, a measure of underlying price pressures that strips out energy and food edged up to a record 5.2%.
Euro-area inflation returned to single digits for the first time since August, fueling hopes that the bloc’s worst-ever spike in consumer prices has peaked. December’s reading came in at 9.2%, Eurostat said Friday, with slower growth in energy costs behind the moderation. The figure reflects slowdowns in Germany, France, Italy and Spain and was less than the 9.5% that economists polled by Bloomberg had expected. Highlighting how inflation continues to menace Europe’s economy, however, a measure of underlying price pressures that strips out energy and food edged up to a record 5.2%.
Docent: 보다 큰 그림을 본다는 것은 어떤 것인지에 대한 도슨트임. 오늘 오후 10시 30분에 발표 될 고용지표에 우리는 예상치를 상회했는지, 하회했는지 혹은 18만개의 일자리 창출에 그치며 고용시장이 냉각되고 있다는데 주목할지도 모름. 하지만 예측치인 20만건보다 낮은 15만건, 또는 더 높은 25만건 사이의 어느 숫자가 나와도 그것이 숲을 보는 것은 아님. 중앙은행은 현재의 3.7% 실업률이 올 한 해 4.6%까지 높아질 것으로 봤기 때문에, 4% 이상의 실업률을 끌어올릴 수 있는지 여부를 봐야 할 것임. 그렇지 않을 경우 중앙은행의 강경한 발언과 행보는 그대로일 것이기 때문임.
We get a dipstick reading on the health of the US labor market today, though this may be one of those occasions when looking at the Big Picture may be useful in estimating how the Fed may be thinking about the economy rather than get lost in a simple “beat” or “miss” parlor game. The median forecast of economists is for employers to have added 202k jobs, but a number that is within 150k to 250k (the standard deviation of the estimates is around 39k) isn’t really going to alter the Fed’s calculus that much. For what it is worth, coming after those ADP numbers perhaps some may be expecting a higher number. What will be really instructive, instead, is whether we got a shocker of a number on the downside — one that will drive up the jobless rate north of 4%. The Fed’s own estimate is for the unemployment rate, now at an incredibly low 3.7%, to shoot up to 4.6% this year. Until we get there, there is not going to be an alignment of demand with supply, which will compel the Fed to stay hawkish with no chance of a pivot. So don’t sweat post-data release homilies like “The jobs market cooled, with employers adding 180,000 jobs” — because that would simply be missing the wood for the trees.
We get a dipstick reading on the health of the US labor market today, though this may be one of those occasions when looking at the Big Picture may be useful in estimating how the Fed may be thinking about the economy rather than get lost in a simple “beat” or “miss” parlor game. The median forecast of economists is for employers to have added 202k jobs, but a number that is within 150k to 250k (the standard deviation of the estimates is around 39k) isn’t really going to alter the Fed’s calculus that much. For what it is worth, coming after those ADP numbers perhaps some may be expecting a higher number. What will be really instructive, instead, is whether we got a shocker of a number on the downside — one that will drive up the jobless rate north of 4%. The Fed’s own estimate is for the unemployment rate, now at an incredibly low 3.7%, to shoot up to 4.6% this year. Until we get there, there is not going to be an alignment of demand with supply, which will compel the Fed to stay hawkish with no chance of a pivot. So don’t sweat post-data release homilies like “The jobs market cooled, with employers adding 180,000 jobs” — because that would simply be missing the wood for the trees.
Market Reaction: 위험자산 투자자들은 임금 상승률이 예상보다 낮음에 위안을 얻는 것으로 보임.
US job growth exceeded expectations last month, the unemployment rate fell and wage gains slowed more than anticipated, suggesting some modest easing in inflation pressures.
US job growth exceeded expectations last month, the unemployment rate fell and wage gains slowed more than anticipated, suggesting some modest easing in inflation pressures.
Implication: 중국이 대형 기업들을 통제하며 원했던 바를 이제 얻기 시작함. 이를 얻기 위해 억압했던 것을 더는 할 이유가 없을 것임.
Billionaire Jack Ma has given up control of Ant Group Co., China’s biggest fintech platform, which he helped create. Ant adjusted its voting rights structure, according to an announcement on Saturday. The change involves giving 10 individuals — including the founder, management and employees — voting rights independently.
Billionaire Jack Ma has given up control of Ant Group Co., China’s biggest fintech platform, which he helped create. Ant adjusted its voting rights structure, according to an announcement on Saturday. The change involves giving 10 individuals — including the founder, management and employees — voting rights independently.
Implication: 대통령보다 대단한 자리인 기분이군. 🤦🏻♂️
McCarthy Blocked Again in Stunning Loss on 14th Speaker Vote.
McCarthy Blocked Again in Stunning Loss on 14th Speaker Vote.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 중국에 대한 투자의견을 비중확대로 유지하며, 목표지수를 기존보다 +15% 상향함. 바이러스 억제정책 해제, 부동산에 대한 적극적 지원으로 꼬리 위험 축소, 플랫폼 기업에 대한 규제 종료 후 지원으로 전환을 들었음. MSCI 중국 지수는 작년 10월 저점에서 +46% 상승했음.
Goldman Sachs expects a further 15% upside for the MSCI China Index from current levels given a full-reopening scenario, strategists including Kinger Lau write in a note. Aggressive housing policy measures in the past several months have effectively backstopped the downward spiral and reduced the left tail risks in equity valuations. The domestic regulation cycle targeting the internet sector has eased into a supportive territory. Also, investor concerns revolving around cross-strait and US-China relations appear to have moderated temporarily. Stays overweight on both onshore and offshore Chinese equities and raises 12m target for MSCI China from 70 to 80. MSCI China Index has jumped 46% from an October trough.
Goldman Sachs expects a further 15% upside for the MSCI China Index from current levels given a full-reopening scenario, strategists including Kinger Lau write in a note. Aggressive housing policy measures in the past several months have effectively backstopped the downward spiral and reduced the left tail risks in equity valuations. The domestic regulation cycle targeting the internet sector has eased into a supportive territory. Also, investor concerns revolving around cross-strait and US-China relations appear to have moderated temporarily. Stays overweight on both onshore and offshore Chinese equities and raises 12m target for MSCI China from 70 to 80. MSCI China Index has jumped 46% from an October trough.
Bottom-line: 일부 전략가들은 중앙은행의 행보가 여전하면서 달러의 강세가 지속될 수 있다고 주장하지만, 다양한 헤지펀드들에 의한 달러 매도 포지션은 2021년 8월 이후 최고치를 기록하고 있음. 특히 지난 금요일 임금 데이터 이후 중앙은행의 최종정책금리가 5% 미만일 것으로 베팅이 되면서, 달러 약세 포지션은 더욱 더 크게 쌓이고 있음.
Hedge funds are growing ever more bearish on the dollar, underscoring speculation that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of its interest-rate hikes. Bets against the greenback swelled to 30,457 contracts last week, the most since August 2021, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on eight currency pairs compiled by Bloomberg. Swap contracts show investors now expect the US policy rate to peak at under 5%, down from 5.06% after data on Friday showed US wage growth decelerated last month. After a standout year, the dollar has seen its fortunes wilt as funds from Jupiter Asset Management to JPMorgan Asset Management bet the Fed will rein in the pace of rate increases. But, some strategists say the greenback may soon resume its upward momentum as the US central bank vows to continue tightening policy.
Hedge funds are growing ever more bearish on the dollar, underscoring speculation that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of its interest-rate hikes. Bets against the greenback swelled to 30,457 contracts last week, the most since August 2021, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on eight currency pairs compiled by Bloomberg. Swap contracts show investors now expect the US policy rate to peak at under 5%, down from 5.06% after data on Friday showed US wage growth decelerated last month. After a standout year, the dollar has seen its fortunes wilt as funds from Jupiter Asset Management to JPMorgan Asset Management bet the Fed will rein in the pace of rate increases. But, some strategists say the greenback may soon resume its upward momentum as the US central bank vows to continue tightening policy.
Bottom-line: 미국이 반도체 산업 내에서 중국을 견제하기 위해 일본 뿐 아니라 한국, 네덜란드의 동시적인 움직임이 필요하다고 함. 세계 최고의 반도체 생산업체를 보유한 한국, 노광장비로 독보적인 기업을 보유한 네덜란드, 반도체 제조에 필요한 기계 및 재료를 보유한 일본이 모두 중국 수출에 대한 엄격한 규제를 따라주기를 바라는 입장을 미리 밝힘.
The US is in discussions with Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea to restrict semiconductor exports to China, and it needs all parties to agree on a deal, US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said in an interview. Stressing the importance of South Korean and Dutch cooperation alongside Japan, he was speaking by phone days ahead of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s summit with President Joe Biden on Friday. The two allies will endorse a joint statement covering a wide range of security issues, but work is continuing on a chip industry restriction deal, he said. “You’ve got to work through not just Japan but you’ve got to work through obviously Korea, you’ve got to work through the Dutch,” Emanuel said. “It’s going to take a lot of work.”. South Korea is home to two of the world’s leading memory chipmakers, Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., while the Netherlands has ASML Holding NV, maker of the world’s most advanced chip lithography systems. Japan, whose businesses provide essential machinery and materials for chip fabricators, also plays a critical role in the industry’s supply chain. Washington hopes to align all three nations in pursuing its stricter measures on China exports.
The US is in discussions with Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea to restrict semiconductor exports to China, and it needs all parties to agree on a deal, US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said in an interview. Stressing the importance of South Korean and Dutch cooperation alongside Japan, he was speaking by phone days ahead of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s summit with President Joe Biden on Friday. The two allies will endorse a joint statement covering a wide range of security issues, but work is continuing on a chip industry restriction deal, he said. “You’ve got to work through not just Japan but you’ve got to work through obviously Korea, you’ve got to work through the Dutch,” Emanuel said. “It’s going to take a lot of work.”. South Korea is home to two of the world’s leading memory chipmakers, Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., while the Netherlands has ASML Holding NV, maker of the world’s most advanced chip lithography systems. Japan, whose businesses provide essential machinery and materials for chip fabricators, also plays a critical role in the industry’s supply chain. Washington hopes to align all three nations in pursuing its stricter measures on China exports.
Bottom-line: 올해 투표권은 없지만, 두 인사는 현재 점도표에 제시 된 수준까지 정책금리를 인상하거나, 혹은 그 지점이 정녕 정책금리의 끝일지 알 수 없다고 하면서 중앙은행이 점도표 미만 수준의 금리인상에 그칠 것이란 기대감을 눌렀음.
Two Fed officials emphasized that the central bank will probably raise rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. "We are just going to have to hold our resolve," Raphael Bostic said, reiterating that he favors getting the benchmark to 5%-5.25% before taking stock. Mary Daly (pictured) gave a similar prediction, though she's uncertain where the peak will be. The central bank could hike by either 25 bps or 50 bps at the end of the month, she told the WSJ. Neither vote on policy this year.
Two Fed officials emphasized that the central bank will probably raise rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. "We are just going to have to hold our resolve," Raphael Bostic said, reiterating that he favors getting the benchmark to 5%-5.25% before taking stock. Mary Daly (pictured) gave a similar prediction, though she's uncertain where the peak will be. The central bank could hike by either 25 bps or 50 bps at the end of the month, she told the WSJ. Neither vote on policy this year.