Bottom-line: 블랙락은 선진국 주식보다 신흥국 주식을 선호하며, 회사채에 있어서는 투자등급을 선호한다고 밝혔는데, 그 근간에는 올해 세 가지, i) 선진국이 경기침체에 이를 것이며, ii) 경제가 타격을 입는 지점에서 중앙은행의 금리인상은 중단 될 것이지만, 인플레이션이 여전히 높아 금리인하에는 이르지 못할 것, iii) 이처럼 선진국이 침체에 이를 때 경제를 재개한 중국이 성장을 주도할 것임.
We see three shifts shaping 2023 as the new regime keeps playing out. First, we see DM economies facing recession. Second, DM central banks will halt rate hikes when economic damage is clearer. Goods inflation should fall sharply as spending shifts. But we don’t expect rate cuts as inflation stays above policy targets. Third, China’s reopening and domestic spending will drive global growth as DM recessions hit. We like emerging market stocks over DM and like high grade credit.
We see three shifts shaping 2023 as the new regime keeps playing out. First, we see DM economies facing recession. Second, DM central banks will halt rate hikes when economic damage is clearer. Goods inflation should fall sharply as spending shifts. But we don’t expect rate cuts as inflation stays above policy targets. Third, China’s reopening and domestic spending will drive global growth as DM recessions hit. We like emerging market stocks over DM and like high grade credit.
Bottom-line: 달러에 대한 주요국 통화가 연 초 이후 강세를 보이면서 달러지수가 근 9개월래 최저치에 근접함. 제이피모건자산운용에서부터 골드만삭스자산운용에 이르기까지 중앙은행이 금리인상을 5% 미만 수준에서 멈출 것으로 기대하는 베팅을 계속하면서, 불과 2주만에 작년 가장 뜨거웠던 ‘달러 매수’ 거래가 거시적 운용에서 가장 큰 규모의 ‘공매도’로 변했음.
Investors are selling the dollar in droves as bets mount that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest-rate hikes. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to the lowest in almost nine months on Monday as easing US inflation expectations prompted funds to ditch the ultimate haven asset. Every major currency in the world rallied against the greenback, with the Australian dollar and the yuan advancing to key levels. The dollar’s fortunes have suffered a dramatic U-turn in recent months as funds from JPMorgan Asset Management to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict the Fed will soon rein in the pace of its tightening. Traders are now expecting the Fed fund rate to peak at 4.94% from more than 5% earlier this month. “Just two weeks into the year, and it feels like the big ‘buy dollar’ trade of 2022 is turning into the hottest macro short now,” said Patrick Bennett, strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Hong Kong.
Investors are selling the dollar in droves as bets mount that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its interest-rate hikes. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to the lowest in almost nine months on Monday as easing US inflation expectations prompted funds to ditch the ultimate haven asset. Every major currency in the world rallied against the greenback, with the Australian dollar and the yuan advancing to key levels. The dollar’s fortunes have suffered a dramatic U-turn in recent months as funds from JPMorgan Asset Management to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict the Fed will soon rein in the pace of its tightening. Traders are now expecting the Fed fund rate to peak at 4.94% from more than 5% earlier this month. “Just two weeks into the year, and it feels like the big ‘buy dollar’ trade of 2022 is turning into the hottest macro short now,” said Patrick Bennett, strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Hong Kong.
Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.
Docent: COVID-19로 인해 많은 거시경제 지표와 경제활동 자료들이 왜곡 된 탓에 이동평균하는 기간을 더 길게 잡거나, 전년 대비 성장률을 2개년도로 합치는 등의 보정 작업이 있었음. 모건스탠리의 한국 수출 자료 또한 2021년에도 그러한 작업이 진행됐었음. 이번에 미국 소비자물가지표의 산출 방법이 위와 반대로 2년에서 1년으로 줄어듬이 어떤 효과를 보일지 단적으로 보여주는 것이 수출 차트임. 산정하는 기간을 늘리면 노란색 부분이 되고, 산정하는 기간을 줄이면 파란색이 되므로, 물가 또한 이전보다 더욱 가파르게 움직이게 될 것임.
The BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data.
The BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data.
Docent: 물가지표의 가중치 변경과 함께 계절조정(흔히 물가지표 다음에 SA라고 붙어 있음) 된 물가지표도 새로 산정되어 2월 10일에 발표 될 것임. 이는 2018년 1월부터 2022년 12월까지 5년치 데이터를 모두 수정하게 됨.
Each year with the release of the January CPI, seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated to reflect price movements from the just-completed calendar year. This routine annual recalculation may result in revisions to seasonally adjusted indexes for the previous 5 years. Recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes as well as recalculated seasonal adjustment factors for the period January 2018 through December 2022 will be made available on Friday, February 10, 2023. The revised indexes and seasonal factors will be available at Seasonal Adjustment in the CPI. CPI can be contacted after 8:30am EST on the day of release to obtain updated seasonal factors.
Each year with the release of the January CPI, seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated to reflect price movements from the just-completed calendar year. This routine annual recalculation may result in revisions to seasonally adjusted indexes for the previous 5 years. Recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes as well as recalculated seasonal adjustment factors for the period January 2018 through December 2022 will be made available on Friday, February 10, 2023. The revised indexes and seasonal factors will be available at Seasonal Adjustment in the CPI. CPI can be contacted after 8:30am EST on the day of release to obtain updated seasonal factors.
Bottom-line: 예상보다 나은 중국의 경제 지표가 발표 됨.
The numbers are out and confirm the economy slowed toward the end of last year but the slowdown was less than economists had forecast.
The numbers are out and confirm the economy slowed toward the end of last year but the slowdown was less than economists had forecast.
Bottom-line: 목표 성장률에는 미달이지만, 중국 경제성장률은 연간으로도, 4분기에도 예상을 상회 함.
There are a lot of numbers so let’s work through them. Fourth-quarter GDP was much better than expected, growing by 2.9% year-on-year compared with an estimated 1.6%. For the whole year, the economy grew 3% -- again better than the expected 2.7% -- but well below the governments target last year of around 5.5%.
There are a lot of numbers so let’s work through them. Fourth-quarter GDP was much better than expected, growing by 2.9% year-on-year compared with an estimated 1.6%. For the whole year, the economy grew 3% -- again better than the expected 2.7% -- but well below the governments target last year of around 5.5%.
Bottom-line: 영국 임금상승률이 2001년 집계 이후 유례없이 빠른 속도로 상승, 때문에 영국 중앙은행이 다음달 통화정책회의에서 10회 연속 금리인상을 해야 할 압박을 주게 됨.
UK wages are rising at a near unprecedented pace, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to deliver a 10th consecutive interest-rate increase next month. Average earnings excluding bonuses were 6.4% higher in the three months through November than a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. That’s the biggest increase since records began in 2001, excluding the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
UK wages are rising at a near unprecedented pace, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to deliver a 10th consecutive interest-rate increase next month. Average earnings excluding bonuses were 6.4% higher in the three months through November than a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. That’s the biggest increase since records began in 2001, excluding the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
Bottom-line: 4대 중앙은행의 총 자산이 달러 기준으로 다시 증가세로 돌아섰음. 미국과 유럽 중앙은행이 긴축을 함에도 불구, 막대한 규모의 중국과 일본 중앙은행이 자산을 늘리면서 추세를 반전시킴. 이 증가에는 달러 약세 영향이 있으며, 왜 달러 약세가 전세계 자본시장에 긍정적인지를 알 수 있게 해줌.
The combined assets of the world’s four largest central banks are growing rapidly again, in dollar terms. Surges in the valuation of assets under management by the PBOC and BOJ are dwarfing the contractions in balance sheets of the Fed and ECB. Dollar depreciation plays a role, and it’s a clear reminder why USD weakness is so beneficial to global markets. The net impact has been an increase of almost $1 trillion in combined balance sheet size over the past two months of 2022.
The combined assets of the world’s four largest central banks are growing rapidly again, in dollar terms. Surges in the valuation of assets under management by the PBOC and BOJ are dwarfing the contractions in balance sheets of the Fed and ECB. Dollar depreciation plays a role, and it’s a clear reminder why USD weakness is so beneficial to global markets. The net impact has been an increase of almost $1 trillion in combined balance sheet size over the past two months of 2022.
1) 중국 정부는 가구 당 출산 자녀를 2명으로 변경한 후 5년이 된 시점인 2021년에 2명에서 3명으로 늘렸고, 가족 계획에 대한 정책이 민법에서 삭제 됨에 따라 추후 이러한 출산 제한 정책이 폐지될 가능성을 남겨 둔 상태임. 2022년 기준으로 중국의 신생아는 956만명으로 1950년 이후 최저치를 기록했음.
3) 이러한 인구 구조의 변화는 다양한 영향을 미치게 될 것인데, i) 노동인구 감소로 인한 인건비 상승으로 재화의 가격이 더 비싸질 것, ii) 인구감소로 인한 주택수요 감소가 원자재 가격이나 수요에 영향을 미칠 것, iii) 국민연금 제도에서 지급가능액 부족을 막기 위해 고군분투 해야 할 것임. 가장 문제는 경제가 성장할 수 있는 잠재력 자체가 떨어질 것이란 사실임. 또한 중국은 여전히 남아를 선호하는 사상이 남아있는데, 때문에 일부 지역에서는 남녀 비율이 120:100에 이를 정도임.
4) 이런 지경에 이르기까지 원인 중 하나였던 한 자녀 정책은 어디서 기원했는지 궁금할 것인데, 1949년 중화인민공화국이 수립 된 이후 농촌 지역에 의료 서비스를 널리하기 위해 맨발의 의사(barefoot doctors) 제도를 운영하면서 사망률은 줄어들고 출산이 증가하면서 인구증가율이 큰 폭으로 증가(5년 사이 천명 당 16명에서 천명당 25명), 1953년에 가족계획이 생겼고, 1970년대에는 주택부족과 식량부족에 직면하면서 가구 당 한 자녀로 출산을 제한하기 시작했음. 이 시기에는 심지어 여성이 낙태를 강요당하기도 했다는 사실(according to Human Rights Watch)도 밝혀졌음.