Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.
Docent: COVID-19로 인해 많은 거시경제 지표와 경제활동 자료들이 왜곡 된 탓에 이동평균하는 기간을 더 길게 잡거나, 전년 대비 성장률을 2개년도로 합치는 등의 보정 작업이 있었음. 모건스탠리의 한국 수출 자료 또한 2021년에도 그러한 작업이 진행됐었음. 이번에 미국 소비자물가지표의 산출 방법이 위와 반대로 2년에서 1년으로 줄어듬이 어떤 효과를 보일지 단적으로 보여주는 것이 수출 차트임. 산정하는 기간을 늘리면 노란색 부분이 되고, 산정하는 기간을 줄이면 파란색이 되므로, 물가 또한 이전보다 더욱 가파르게 움직이게 될 것임.
The BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data.
The BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data.
Docent: 물가지표의 가중치 변경과 함께 계절조정(흔히 물가지표 다음에 SA라고 붙어 있음) 된 물가지표도 새로 산정되어 2월 10일에 발표 될 것임. 이는 2018년 1월부터 2022년 12월까지 5년치 데이터를 모두 수정하게 됨.
Each year with the release of the January CPI, seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated to reflect price movements from the just-completed calendar year. This routine annual recalculation may result in revisions to seasonally adjusted indexes for the previous 5 years. Recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes as well as recalculated seasonal adjustment factors for the period January 2018 through December 2022 will be made available on Friday, February 10, 2023. The revised indexes and seasonal factors will be available at Seasonal Adjustment in the CPI. CPI can be contacted after 8:30am EST on the day of release to obtain updated seasonal factors.
Each year with the release of the January CPI, seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated to reflect price movements from the just-completed calendar year. This routine annual recalculation may result in revisions to seasonally adjusted indexes for the previous 5 years. Recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes as well as recalculated seasonal adjustment factors for the period January 2018 through December 2022 will be made available on Friday, February 10, 2023. The revised indexes and seasonal factors will be available at Seasonal Adjustment in the CPI. CPI can be contacted after 8:30am EST on the day of release to obtain updated seasonal factors.
Bottom-line: 예상보다 나은 중국의 경제 지표가 발표 됨.
The numbers are out and confirm the economy slowed toward the end of last year but the slowdown was less than economists had forecast.
The numbers are out and confirm the economy slowed toward the end of last year but the slowdown was less than economists had forecast.
Bottom-line: 목표 성장률에는 미달이지만, 중국 경제성장률은 연간으로도, 4분기에도 예상을 상회 함.
There are a lot of numbers so let’s work through them. Fourth-quarter GDP was much better than expected, growing by 2.9% year-on-year compared with an estimated 1.6%. For the whole year, the economy grew 3% -- again better than the expected 2.7% -- but well below the governments target last year of around 5.5%.
There are a lot of numbers so let’s work through them. Fourth-quarter GDP was much better than expected, growing by 2.9% year-on-year compared with an estimated 1.6%. For the whole year, the economy grew 3% -- again better than the expected 2.7% -- but well below the governments target last year of around 5.5%.
Bottom-line: 영국 임금상승률이 2001년 집계 이후 유례없이 빠른 속도로 상승, 때문에 영국 중앙은행이 다음달 통화정책회의에서 10회 연속 금리인상을 해야 할 압박을 주게 됨.
UK wages are rising at a near unprecedented pace, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to deliver a 10th consecutive interest-rate increase next month. Average earnings excluding bonuses were 6.4% higher in the three months through November than a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. That’s the biggest increase since records began in 2001, excluding the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
UK wages are rising at a near unprecedented pace, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to deliver a 10th consecutive interest-rate increase next month. Average earnings excluding bonuses were 6.4% higher in the three months through November than a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. That’s the biggest increase since records began in 2001, excluding the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
Bottom-line: 4대 중앙은행의 총 자산이 달러 기준으로 다시 증가세로 돌아섰음. 미국과 유럽 중앙은행이 긴축을 함에도 불구, 막대한 규모의 중국과 일본 중앙은행이 자산을 늘리면서 추세를 반전시킴. 이 증가에는 달러 약세 영향이 있으며, 왜 달러 약세가 전세계 자본시장에 긍정적인지를 알 수 있게 해줌.
The combined assets of the world’s four largest central banks are growing rapidly again, in dollar terms. Surges in the valuation of assets under management by the PBOC and BOJ are dwarfing the contractions in balance sheets of the Fed and ECB. Dollar depreciation plays a role, and it’s a clear reminder why USD weakness is so beneficial to global markets. The net impact has been an increase of almost $1 trillion in combined balance sheet size over the past two months of 2022.
The combined assets of the world’s four largest central banks are growing rapidly again, in dollar terms. Surges in the valuation of assets under management by the PBOC and BOJ are dwarfing the contractions in balance sheets of the Fed and ECB. Dollar depreciation plays a role, and it’s a clear reminder why USD weakness is so beneficial to global markets. The net impact has been an increase of almost $1 trillion in combined balance sheet size over the past two months of 2022.
1) 중국 정부는 가구 당 출산 자녀를 2명으로 변경한 후 5년이 된 시점인 2021년에 2명에서 3명으로 늘렸고, 가족 계획에 대한 정책이 민법에서 삭제 됨에 따라 추후 이러한 출산 제한 정책이 폐지될 가능성을 남겨 둔 상태임. 2022년 기준으로 중국의 신생아는 956만명으로 1950년 이후 최저치를 기록했음.
3) 이러한 인구 구조의 변화는 다양한 영향을 미치게 될 것인데, i) 노동인구 감소로 인한 인건비 상승으로 재화의 가격이 더 비싸질 것, ii) 인구감소로 인한 주택수요 감소가 원자재 가격이나 수요에 영향을 미칠 것, iii) 국민연금 제도에서 지급가능액 부족을 막기 위해 고군분투 해야 할 것임. 가장 문제는 경제가 성장할 수 있는 잠재력 자체가 떨어질 것이란 사실임. 또한 중국은 여전히 남아를 선호하는 사상이 남아있는데, 때문에 일부 지역에서는 남녀 비율이 120:100에 이를 정도임.
4) 이런 지경에 이르기까지 원인 중 하나였던 한 자녀 정책은 어디서 기원했는지 궁금할 것인데, 1949년 중화인민공화국이 수립 된 이후 농촌 지역에 의료 서비스를 널리하기 위해 맨발의 의사(barefoot doctors) 제도를 운영하면서 사망률은 줄어들고 출산이 증가하면서 인구증가율이 큰 폭으로 증가(5년 사이 천명 당 16명에서 천명당 25명), 1953년에 가족계획이 생겼고, 1970년대에는 주택부족과 식량부족에 직면하면서 가구 당 한 자녀로 출산을 제한하기 시작했음. 이 시기에는 심지어 여성이 낙태를 강요당하기도 했다는 사실(according to Human Rights Watch)도 밝혀졌음.
5) 끝으로, 그렇다면 이 문제를 어떻게 해결할 것인지로 매듭을 지어야 하는데, 일본과 한국과 같은 곳에서 이미 인구감소로 인한 출산장려책을 실시하고 있지만 그 무엇도 출산율을 급격하게 끌어올리지 못하고 있음. 때문에 중국의 상황도 지금과 크게 달라질 것 같지 않음(There’s no reason to think the situation in China will be different).
Pulse: 올해 시장 참여자들은 미국 중앙은행에 대한 걱정은 접어둔 것으로 보이며, 방향이 보다 명확해진 인플레이션과 생각보다 이른 개방에 따른 중국의 성장, 그리고 기업 이익에 더 초점을 맞추고 있음.
The Fed Is Slipping Down the Worry-List. Markets are apparently a bit less concerned with the Federal Reserve this year. With good reason: Earnings are looming in importance, and there’s confidence in the direction of US inflation. Japan’s yield-curve control drama doesn’t look like it’s really over. And China’s breakout from Covid Zero means growth could return there months earlier than had been expected.
The Fed Is Slipping Down the Worry-List. Markets are apparently a bit less concerned with the Federal Reserve this year. With good reason: Earnings are looming in importance, and there’s confidence in the direction of US inflation. Japan’s yield-curve control drama doesn’t look like it’s really over. And China’s breakout from Covid Zero means growth could return there months earlier than had been expected.
Bottom-line: 미국과 일본의 경제재개 사례를 보면 바이러스 대확산 시기의 초과저축분을 어떻게 사용하는지 태도가 차이를 만들었고, 그것이 주가 상승률 차이로 귀결됐음. 미국인이 초과저축분의 45%를 소비에 쓰면서 소매업체 주가 또한 재개 후 6개월 간 +17% 상승함. 중국에 대한 투자 아이디어로 이러한 경제재개가 뜨거운 가운데, 8,270억 달러의 중국 내 저축분이 모두 소비에 쏟아질지 확신할 수 없지만, 대부분 투자자들은 신년 설날에 중국인들이 백주를 마시며 잔치를 할 것이라 생각함. 소비 뿐만 아니라 여타 경제와 다르게 중국은 중앙은행 또한 소비를 뒷받침하는 여력이 되어 줄 것임. 대다수 경제지역이 올해 침체에 접어드는데 반해, 세계에서 두번째로 큰 이곳은 경제순환주기에서 초기 회복 단계에 있으므로, 그 기회를 잡는 것이 좋은 거래가 될 수도 있을 것임.
Global investors are flocking back to mainland China’s $10 trillion stock market as the nation reopens and races toward herd immunity. They are betting that the Chinese will be partying and popping open a lot of $200-a-bottle baijiu, the pricey fiery liquor manufactured by the likes of Kweichow Moutai Co., this Lunar New Year. After all, betting on pent-up demand unleashed by the relaxation of Covid policies can be a great trade. In the US, consumer services companies rose by 17% six months after the initial reopening in March 2021, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley. However, not all resumption of normal life boosts an economy. While retail sales in the US have soared, the Japanese are feeling a lot more cautious, even though consumers in both nations notched up trillions of dollars in excess savings during the pandemic. This divergence is reflected in their stock market performances, too. As such, there is no guarantee that the Chinese will spend the estimated extra $827 billion they hoarded during the Covid-Zero era. Before you know it, the recent reopening rally may just dissipate or even reverse.
However, in high-end retail, chances are that they will spend like exuberant Americans. The hurdles present in the broader economy are not in the luxury segment. However, there is a major tailwind for the country’s spenders — they have healthier balance sheets and a friendlier central bank. With about 45% of the excess savings Americans accumulated during the pandemic already spent, much of the rest is now offset by a rise in auto loans and unpaid credit card balances caused in part by interest-rate hikes, according to Jefferies. By comparison, the Chinese are just getting started with their revenge consumption. In this sense, being late to the reopening also means it’s easy to make an investment case for China now. While most economists are expecting a recession in the US this year, the world’s second-largest economy is in the early stages of the business cycle.
Global investors are flocking back to mainland China’s $10 trillion stock market as the nation reopens and races toward herd immunity. They are betting that the Chinese will be partying and popping open a lot of $200-a-bottle baijiu, the pricey fiery liquor manufactured by the likes of Kweichow Moutai Co., this Lunar New Year. After all, betting on pent-up demand unleashed by the relaxation of Covid policies can be a great trade. In the US, consumer services companies rose by 17% six months after the initial reopening in March 2021, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley. However, not all resumption of normal life boosts an economy. While retail sales in the US have soared, the Japanese are feeling a lot more cautious, even though consumers in both nations notched up trillions of dollars in excess savings during the pandemic. This divergence is reflected in their stock market performances, too. As such, there is no guarantee that the Chinese will spend the estimated extra $827 billion they hoarded during the Covid-Zero era. Before you know it, the recent reopening rally may just dissipate or even reverse.
However, in high-end retail, chances are that they will spend like exuberant Americans. The hurdles present in the broader economy are not in the luxury segment. However, there is a major tailwind for the country’s spenders — they have healthier balance sheets and a friendlier central bank. With about 45% of the excess savings Americans accumulated during the pandemic already spent, much of the rest is now offset by a rise in auto loans and unpaid credit card balances caused in part by interest-rate hikes, according to Jefferies. By comparison, the Chinese are just getting started with their revenge consumption. In this sense, being late to the reopening also means it’s easy to make an investment case for China now. While most economists are expecting a recession in the US this year, the world’s second-largest economy is in the early stages of the business cycle.