Bottom-line: 제이피모건의 한국 담당 애널리스트들이 홍콩과 싱가폴의 펀드 매니저들을 만나 국내 투자에 대한 의견을 들었으며, 그 중 투자자들이 어떻게 보고 어디에 관심을 가지는지, 그에 대해 제이피모건은 어떻게 생각하는지를 정리하면, i) 투자자들은 거시경제 환경의 불확실성, 높은 해외 의존도, 환율 불안정, 기업 실적의 하락 주기에 있는 한국에 대해 강한 비중 축소 상태로 있음. 다만, 원자재 성격의 기술(메모리와 MLCC), 은행, 그리고 중국 경제재개와 관련 된 곳에는 관심이 높고 여타 업종에는 상대적으로 관심이 덜함. 2) 제이피모건은 이에 대해 한국 기업의 이익 주기가 하강기며, 경기침체 위험이 있음에도 불구하고 주가가 크게 뒤쳐진 종목(원자재 및 기술)과 가치평가의 정상화(은행), 중국 경제재개(면세점과 화장품), 장기적인 성장(배터리 부문)에 비중확대를 권고했음.
Most Korea covering analysts spent a week meeting major long-funds and hedge funds in HK/SG last week. 1) Investor views and interest level: We believe most investors are heavily UW the Korea market given macro issues, a heavy dependency on overseas market, F/X headwinds, and a down-cycle in earnings into FY23E. Investors remain concerned about overall consumption in domestic and overseas markets along with a lack of earnings growth in major sectors. Interest level is clearly high for Tech (mainly commodity tech such as memory and MLCC), Banks, and a rising interest in China reopening players (i.e. cosmetics over DFS). On the other hand, the interest level for Healthcare, Auto, Steel, Utility Internet/Game, and Insurance is relatively low. 2) Our key message: Although Korea is entering a weak earnings cycle and potential recession, we recommend that investors position in laggards (i.e. commodity tech), valuation normalization (banks), China reopening (cosmetics over DFS), secular growth story (selective battery cells over materials), earnings/DPS upside (i.e. SLI over non-life insurance), M/S gain story (i.e. Coupang), and sustainable margins (i.e. OEMs over parts).
Most Korea covering analysts spent a week meeting major long-funds and hedge funds in HK/SG last week. 1) Investor views and interest level: We believe most investors are heavily UW the Korea market given macro issues, a heavy dependency on overseas market, F/X headwinds, and a down-cycle in earnings into FY23E. Investors remain concerned about overall consumption in domestic and overseas markets along with a lack of earnings growth in major sectors. Interest level is clearly high for Tech (mainly commodity tech such as memory and MLCC), Banks, and a rising interest in China reopening players (i.e. cosmetics over DFS). On the other hand, the interest level for Healthcare, Auto, Steel, Utility Internet/Game, and Insurance is relatively low. 2) Our key message: Although Korea is entering a weak earnings cycle and potential recession, we recommend that investors position in laggards (i.e. commodity tech), valuation normalization (banks), China reopening (cosmetics over DFS), secular growth story (selective battery cells over materials), earnings/DPS upside (i.e. SLI over non-life insurance), M/S gain story (i.e. Coupang), and sustainable margins (i.e. OEMs over parts).
Bottom-line: 런던에서 골드만삭스가 바이러스 대확산 이후 처음으로 400여명이 모인 컨퍼런스를 열었고, 참가자들에게 다양한 설문을 실시하고 응답을 모아 보고서로 발간했음. 그 중 미국과 투자자산에 관련 된 항목 몇 가지를 정리하면 다음과 같음. i) 올 해 미국 경기침체 가능성의 경우 응답자의 57%가 그렇다고 답했는데, 이는 시장의 중지인 65% 대비 낙관적임. 아마도 연 초 이후 자산들의 성과, 그리고 인플레이션 관련 소식이 영향을 주었을 것임. ii) 미국 중앙은행이 정책금리를 어디까지 올릴 것인가에 대해서는 응답자의 2/3 가량이 현재로부터 50bp~75bp 추가 인상할 것으로 답변, 이는 시장이 생각하는 +60bp 수준보다 약간 높고, 일부 응답자는 5.25% 이상도 가능하다고 답함. iii) 올해 전세계 주식 수익률(달러 기준)은 어떨까에 대해 46%의 응답자가 10% 미만이지만 수익을 거둘 것으로, 27%의 응답자가 10% 이상의 수익률을 거둘 것으로 기대하고 있음(과거 응답에 10% 이상이라 응답한 비율은 13%에 불과). iv) 현지 통화 기준으로 가장 좋은 지역은 어디인지 질문에는 일본 제외 아시아가 응답의 48%로 압도적이며, 작년 응답의 18%였던데 반해 큰 변화임.
Yesterday, we held our 31st annual Global Strategy Conference in London, which was attended by over 400 clients, in person, for the first time since the pandemic. During the sessions, we surveyed our audience members on their views and outlook. i) Do you expect a recession in the US in 2023?, 57% of our clients do expect a recession in the US while 43% do not. This is slightly more optimistic than consensus where the average recession probability stands at 65%. This relative 'bullishness' might be due to the market bounce YTD and the recent good news on the growth-inflation mix. ii) Where will the Fed stop its hiking cycle? (currently 4.25 - 4.5%), About 2 out of 3 respondents expect the FOMC to hike by another 50bps or 75bps before stopping, which is consistent with market pricing of +60 bps. Outside of this modal outcome, views are skewed to the upside with 23% of clients expecting the FED to bring the policy rate above 5.25%. iii) In 2023, what will global equity returns be in $ terms?, After 2021 and 2022, when global equities returned respectively +17% and -20% (USD, total return), the majority of our clients (46%) expect positive, but single-digit, returns (0% to 10%) in 2023. The distribution is more skewed to the upside than last year, when only 13% of the clients expected returns above 10%, while today, 27% of the clients expect double-digit returns. Overall, 73% of our clients are expecting positive returns this year (vs. 78% expecting the same last year). iv) Which region will perform best in 2023 (in local currency terms)?, There is a clear consensus that Asia (ex. Japan) will be the best performing region in 2023. Clients have much more faith in Asia (ex. Japan), which attracted 48% of the votes, compared to only 18% last year. The boost from China reopening will be quite substantial for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index which fell 20% last year, the 4th largest decline in the 35-year index history.
Yesterday, we held our 31st annual Global Strategy Conference in London, which was attended by over 400 clients, in person, for the first time since the pandemic. During the sessions, we surveyed our audience members on their views and outlook. i) Do you expect a recession in the US in 2023?, 57% of our clients do expect a recession in the US while 43% do not. This is slightly more optimistic than consensus where the average recession probability stands at 65%. This relative 'bullishness' might be due to the market bounce YTD and the recent good news on the growth-inflation mix. ii) Where will the Fed stop its hiking cycle? (currently 4.25 - 4.5%), About 2 out of 3 respondents expect the FOMC to hike by another 50bps or 75bps before stopping, which is consistent with market pricing of +60 bps. Outside of this modal outcome, views are skewed to the upside with 23% of clients expecting the FED to bring the policy rate above 5.25%. iii) In 2023, what will global equity returns be in $ terms?, After 2021 and 2022, when global equities returned respectively +17% and -20% (USD, total return), the majority of our clients (46%) expect positive, but single-digit, returns (0% to 10%) in 2023. The distribution is more skewed to the upside than last year, when only 13% of the clients expected returns above 10%, while today, 27% of the clients expect double-digit returns. Overall, 73% of our clients are expecting positive returns this year (vs. 78% expecting the same last year). iv) Which region will perform best in 2023 (in local currency terms)?, There is a clear consensus that Asia (ex. Japan) will be the best performing region in 2023. Clients have much more faith in Asia (ex. Japan), which attracted 48% of the votes, compared to only 18% last year. The boost from China reopening will be quite substantial for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index which fell 20% last year, the 4th largest decline in the 35-year index history.
Bottom-line: 부동산의 침체가 주거용에서부터 상업용까지 확산 중임. 1,750억 달러에 달하는 부동산 자산이 이미 부실상태에 직면했고, 다른 산업 내 부실규모와 비교가 어려울만큼 큼. 금리상승과 유동성 축소로 일부에서는 자산 매각 또는 압류까지 이어지는 부실이 나타나고 있으며, 작년 하반기에만 영국 -20%, 미국 -9%의 상업용 부동산 가치 하락을 보였음. 그리고 이러한 부동산 부실이 실물경제 내 고용과 성장에도 필연적으로 타격을 입히게 될 것임. 문제는 이런 부동산 부실의 본격적 시작은 지금부터란 것임.
The slump in the world’s biggest asset class has spread from the housing market to commercial real estate, threatening to unleash waves of credit turmoil across the economy. Almost $175 billion of real estate credit is already distressed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg — about four times more than the next biggest industry. As the toll from higher interest rates and the end of easy money mounts, many real estate markets are almost frozen with some lenders telling borrowers to sell assets or risk foreclosure amid demands for additional capital from landlords. Distress levels in European real estate are at the highest in a decade, in part because of a decline in liquidity, according to a study by law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges. UK commercial property values fell more than 20% in the second half of 2022, MSCI Inc. data show. In the US, the drop was 9%, according to Green Street. The fall in transactions and development in commercial and residential real estate will inevitably impact spending in the real economy. In turn, that could pose a risk to jobs and growth. “What we have in this downturn is a fairly unique set of economic circumstances. Interest rates are tightening instead of softening the blow for real estate and other corporates,” said Ian Guthrie, a senior managing director at the loan advisory team at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., a real estate broker. “You have a pipeline of potentially defaulting loans” where “values are under pressure and cash flows are under pressure.”. This year, he added, “is when those problems will start to manifest themselves.” About one in 10 corporate loans in Europe is already underperforming and showing increased credit risk, according to JLL.
The slump in the world’s biggest asset class has spread from the housing market to commercial real estate, threatening to unleash waves of credit turmoil across the economy. Almost $175 billion of real estate credit is already distressed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg — about four times more than the next biggest industry. As the toll from higher interest rates and the end of easy money mounts, many real estate markets are almost frozen with some lenders telling borrowers to sell assets or risk foreclosure amid demands for additional capital from landlords. Distress levels in European real estate are at the highest in a decade, in part because of a decline in liquidity, according to a study by law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges. UK commercial property values fell more than 20% in the second half of 2022, MSCI Inc. data show. In the US, the drop was 9%, according to Green Street. The fall in transactions and development in commercial and residential real estate will inevitably impact spending in the real economy. In turn, that could pose a risk to jobs and growth. “What we have in this downturn is a fairly unique set of economic circumstances. Interest rates are tightening instead of softening the blow for real estate and other corporates,” said Ian Guthrie, a senior managing director at the loan advisory team at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., a real estate broker. “You have a pipeline of potentially defaulting loans” where “values are under pressure and cash flows are under pressure.”. This year, he added, “is when those problems will start to manifest themselves.” About one in 10 corporate loans in Europe is already underperforming and showing increased credit risk, according to JLL.
Bottom-line: 투자자들의 자금이 유례없이 큰 규모로 신흥국 시장을 향하고 있음. 이는 중국의 경제재개에 투자자들이 완전히 항복하고 인정하고 있기 때문이며, 중국 덕분에 유럽 시장으로도 49주만에 처음으로 2억 달러가 유입 됨. 같은 기간 미국 시장에서는 58억 달러가 인출 됨.
Investors are flocking to emerging market funds like never before, while European stocks have seen their first inflows in almost a year as optimism abounds around China’s reopening, Bank of America Corp. strategists said. Developing market bond and equity funds had inflows of $12.7 billion in the week through Jan. 18, the biggest on record, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. European stocks had inflows of $200 million, their first in 49 weeks, while US equities had outflows of $5.8 billion. The inflows came as “the world capitulates into China reopening,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote, adding that market optimism has further to run. China’s Hang Seng Index has surged 50% since hitting a low in October.
Investors are flocking to emerging market funds like never before, while European stocks have seen their first inflows in almost a year as optimism abounds around China’s reopening, Bank of America Corp. strategists said. Developing market bond and equity funds had inflows of $12.7 billion in the week through Jan. 18, the biggest on record, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. European stocks had inflows of $200 million, their first in 49 weeks, while US equities had outflows of $5.8 billion. The inflows came as “the world capitulates into China reopening,” strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote, adding that market optimism has further to run. China’s Hang Seng Index has surged 50% since hitting a low in October.
Stock futures gained Friday, suggesting indexes could end the week on a stronger footing after concerns about a slowing economy drove markets lower in recent days.
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Docent: 항구, 주유소, 더 싼 대안 등, 짧은 글에 경제적인 의미가 많아 도슨트 하고자 함. i) 항구, 물건을 가지고 입항하는 컨테이너선들이 줄어들고 있다는 것은 소비자가 소비행태를 바꾸고 있다는 것임. ii) 주유소, 만일 소비자 심리에 단기에 물가가 지속 가파르게 오를 것이라 생각한다면(1970년대처럼), 오늘 주유하는 것이 내일 주유하는 것보다 쌀테니 줄을 서 있을 것임. iii) 대안, 소위 지불용의가격이라 하는 소비자가 재화나 서비스를 구입할 때 지불하고자 하는 비용은 대안이 없거나 희소할 때 계속 높아지는데, 인플레이션이 지나치게 오래되어 가처분소득을 줄이니 결국 대안을 찾기도 하고, 이제 더는 인플레이션이 존재한다 생각치 않아 구매를 서두르지 않는 것일 수도 있음. 이처럼 소비자가 구매와 가격에 결정력을 가지면 인플레이션은 둔화 될 것이며, 중앙은행의 금리인상 행보에 끝을 찍거나 되돌리기까지 할 것임.
The drop in imports as measured by container shipments coming through the port of Long Beach suggests supply-chain disruptions may be easing as inflation erodes US consumer disposable income. The good news is that inflation is falling as consumers either spend less or alter spending habits to less expensive options. The trend suggests inflation is not embedded in the consumer psyche, the phenomenon where consumers expect prices to be higher the next day so they buy today. To someone who waited on gas lines, this is not the inflation of the 1970s. The consumer appears to have the power and that is a good omen for risk. The more consumers push back, the slower the pace of rate hikes and the sooner the pivot. Great news for bond bulls and dollar bears.
The drop in imports as measured by container shipments coming through the port of Long Beach suggests supply-chain disruptions may be easing as inflation erodes US consumer disposable income. The good news is that inflation is falling as consumers either spend less or alter spending habits to less expensive options. The trend suggests inflation is not embedded in the consumer psyche, the phenomenon where consumers expect prices to be higher the next day so they buy today. To someone who waited on gas lines, this is not the inflation of the 1970s. The consumer appears to have the power and that is a good omen for risk. The more consumers push back, the slower the pace of rate hikes and the sooner the pivot. Great news for bond bulls and dollar bears.
• 사담
'먼 길을 떠나기 전 당신을 위해,'
월스트리트 저널에 읽고 떠나보내기엔 아쉬운 글이 있어 사담으로 남기려 함. 현대에 있어 구글 맵 하나면 전세계 도시의 도로까지 확대해서 확인할 수 있고, 미국 내 자동차가 가장 많은 20개 도시의 운전자 93%가 내비게이션에 의존하는 시대에 종이로 된 지도가 생존할 수 있을까 의문을 가질 수 있음.
하지만, 생각과 달리 종이 지도의 판매는 2019년 대비 2020년이 +144% 증가, 2021년에 전년 대비 +28% 증가, 2022년에도 전년 대비 +123%의 증가를 보였음. 심지어 3년 간 신규 회원이 된 연령층의 절반이 MZ 세대라는 것도 놀라운 사실임.
종이로 된 지도를 제작하기 위해 지도 제작자는 그 길을 직접 걸어야 하며, 반대로 네비게이션을 사용하는 사람들은 주변의 경치를 놓칠 수 밖에 없음. 그런 감성적 부분이 종이 지도의 인기를 끌어올리고 있다는 생각임. 종이로 된 지도는 네비게이션을 사용하는 것보다 유용하진 않지만 아름답기 때문임. 실제로 소비자들의 응답을 보면 종이 지도를 보면서 미래의 여행지에 대한 영감을 얻거나 걸어두는 예술품 정도로 여기고 있는 것임.
종이로 된 지도에서 만들 수 있는 수 많은 영역이 있고, 이는 도로의 정보를 얼마나 잘 표시하냐의 문제가 지도의 구매와 연관되어 있지 않다는 것임.
IN THE 1880s, Iraqi archaeologist Hormuzd Rassam found a small carved tablet with an image of Babylon at its center, surrounded by a vast salt sea. Historians consider this tablet, roughly 2,500 years old, the earliest existing map of the world. Even “modern” maps look quaint today, when apps like Google Maps put practically every intersection in the world a click away. We rely heavily on this innovation. One 2022 survey by tire retailer United Tires, found that, in the 20 U.S. cities with the most cars per capita, 93% of drivers depend on GPS to get around. Digital maps, while powerful, aren’t perfect navigational tools: Phone batteries die, cell signals fail. And though a smartphone can easily direct you to the quickest route, taking it often means you’ll miss the best scenery. A paper map, more like those made by early humans, can provide a bigger picture. You can think of them less like comprehensive guides to reaching your destination, and more like detailed portraits of areas of interest, created by someone with deep, experiential knowledge. After all, while a satellite can highlight unpaved paths, cartographers actually walk down them. Perhaps that’s why paper maps are regaining popularity. According to a spokesperson for Ordnance Survey, the national mapping agency of Great Britain, “sales of custom-made maps exploded in 2020, with an increase of 144% compared with the year before. A year later, in 2021, there was a further 28% increase.” The AAA produced 123% more maps in 2022 than in 2021. Enthusiasm for the organization, a representative said, is growing among millennials and members of Generation Z, who account for half of its new members in the last three years. The boom has trickled down. Tony Rodono, owner of the Map Shop, a retailer and cartography firm in Charlotte, N.C., said sales are up a consistent 20% to 30% year over year. His customers, he added, aren’t just looking to maps for directions, but as inspiration for future trips or even as art worth hanging. Indeed, many newer maps are more beautiful than useful. Delightful custom charts by Jen Urso of Steady Hand Maps in Phoenix, often foreground seemingly random details, like the best cactuses near her home. “There’s so much you can map,” she said. “It’s not just about streets.”
- WSJ
'먼 길을 떠나기 전 당신을 위해,'
월스트리트 저널에 읽고 떠나보내기엔 아쉬운 글이 있어 사담으로 남기려 함. 현대에 있어 구글 맵 하나면 전세계 도시의 도로까지 확대해서 확인할 수 있고, 미국 내 자동차가 가장 많은 20개 도시의 운전자 93%가 내비게이션에 의존하는 시대에 종이로 된 지도가 생존할 수 있을까 의문을 가질 수 있음.
하지만, 생각과 달리 종이 지도의 판매는 2019년 대비 2020년이 +144% 증가, 2021년에 전년 대비 +28% 증가, 2022년에도 전년 대비 +123%의 증가를 보였음. 심지어 3년 간 신규 회원이 된 연령층의 절반이 MZ 세대라는 것도 놀라운 사실임.
종이로 된 지도를 제작하기 위해 지도 제작자는 그 길을 직접 걸어야 하며, 반대로 네비게이션을 사용하는 사람들은 주변의 경치를 놓칠 수 밖에 없음. 그런 감성적 부분이 종이 지도의 인기를 끌어올리고 있다는 생각임. 종이로 된 지도는 네비게이션을 사용하는 것보다 유용하진 않지만 아름답기 때문임. 실제로 소비자들의 응답을 보면 종이 지도를 보면서 미래의 여행지에 대한 영감을 얻거나 걸어두는 예술품 정도로 여기고 있는 것임.
종이로 된 지도에서 만들 수 있는 수 많은 영역이 있고, 이는 도로의 정보를 얼마나 잘 표시하냐의 문제가 지도의 구매와 연관되어 있지 않다는 것임.
IN THE 1880s, Iraqi archaeologist Hormuzd Rassam found a small carved tablet with an image of Babylon at its center, surrounded by a vast salt sea. Historians consider this tablet, roughly 2,500 years old, the earliest existing map of the world. Even “modern” maps look quaint today, when apps like Google Maps put practically every intersection in the world a click away. We rely heavily on this innovation. One 2022 survey by tire retailer United Tires, found that, in the 20 U.S. cities with the most cars per capita, 93% of drivers depend on GPS to get around. Digital maps, while powerful, aren’t perfect navigational tools: Phone batteries die, cell signals fail. And though a smartphone can easily direct you to the quickest route, taking it often means you’ll miss the best scenery. A paper map, more like those made by early humans, can provide a bigger picture. You can think of them less like comprehensive guides to reaching your destination, and more like detailed portraits of areas of interest, created by someone with deep, experiential knowledge. After all, while a satellite can highlight unpaved paths, cartographers actually walk down them. Perhaps that’s why paper maps are regaining popularity. According to a spokesperson for Ordnance Survey, the national mapping agency of Great Britain, “sales of custom-made maps exploded in 2020, with an increase of 144% compared with the year before. A year later, in 2021, there was a further 28% increase.” The AAA produced 123% more maps in 2022 than in 2021. Enthusiasm for the organization, a representative said, is growing among millennials and members of Generation Z, who account for half of its new members in the last three years. The boom has trickled down. Tony Rodono, owner of the Map Shop, a retailer and cartography firm in Charlotte, N.C., said sales are up a consistent 20% to 30% year over year. His customers, he added, aren’t just looking to maps for directions, but as inspiration for future trips or even as art worth hanging. Indeed, many newer maps are more beautiful than useful. Delightful custom charts by Jen Urso of Steady Hand Maps in Phoenix, often foreground seemingly random details, like the best cactuses near her home. “There’s so much you can map,” she said. “It’s not just about streets.”
- WSJ
Docent.
‘중앙은행에 맞선 투자자’
작년 한 해 월등한 성과를 거두었던 매크로 투자자의 이야기를 도슨트 하고자 함. 연휴의 끝자락, 시나브로 흘러가버린 시간의 아쉬움을 이 내용으로 갈음해봄.
‘중앙은행에 맞선 투자자’
작년 한 해 월등한 성과를 거두었던 매크로 투자자의 이야기를 도슨트 하고자 함. 연휴의 끝자락, 시나브로 흘러가버린 시간의 아쉬움을 이 내용으로 갈음해봄.
i) 작년 한 해 헤지펀드 업계 연간 수익률이 -0.7%를 기록하는 동안 +12.2%의 수익을 거둔 펀드 집단은 매크로 전략이었음. 전통적인 주식 60% / 채권 40% 배분의 수익률 참패부터, 세계에서 가장 뜨거운 스타트업 투자도 -56%를 기록 한 시기의 성과며, 리만 브라더스 파산 이후 중앙은행의 유동성 지원 속에 빛을 잃은 매크로 전략의 의미있는 귀환이었음.
ii) 매크로 전략은 경제의 순환 주기 속에서 추세를 잡고, 가장 뛰어난 자산군 또는 가장 부진한 자산군에 대해 포트폴리오를 구축하여 수익을 취하는 방법임. 흥미로운 점은 “중앙은행에 맞서지 말라.”는 격언과 달리, 이들은 중앙은행의 일시적이란 인플레이션 판단에 정면으로 맞섬으로써 큰 수익을 거뒀음. 2년물 국채 수익률은 작년 0.78%에서 4.43%까지 상승하며, 채권 자산에 큰 폭 손실을 안겼고, 매크로 펀드는 채권 공매도로 수익을 거둠.
iii) 수익의 원천이 중앙은행의 권위에 도전해 승리했기 때문인지, 올 한 해 펀드에 자금을 배분하는 수익자의 최고 선호 전략은 매크로였음. 긴 시간이 흐른 뒤에서야 매크로 전략이 주류로 복귀했다 볼 수 있음. 가장 큰 의문은, 올해도 이들이 수익을 거둘지에 대한 것임.
iv) 이미 매크로 전략의 펀드들은 또 다시 중앙은행과 치킨게임을 시작했음(This year, the game of chicken with the Federal Reserve continues.). 중앙은행은 여전히 강력한 통화정책을 예고하고 있지만, 채권에 대한 강력한 매수세와 달러에 대한 엄청난 매도세는 하반기 중앙은행이 금리인하에 이를 것이란 베팅 때문임.
v) 매크로 전략이 이런 거시적 환경에서 지각과 현실의 괴리에서 도박을 하고 있다면, 그저 다양한 자산군 중 추세가 유효한 곳에 같은 방향으로 지속 포지션을 쌓는 CTA(Commodity Trading Advisor funds)들도 눈여겨 보아야 할 것임. 이들은 작년 한 해 달러 강세 추세에 지속 포지션을 유지하며 30% 가까운 수익을 거둔 곳이 있는데, 이들 전략 또한 작년과 방향이 달라져 있음. 만일 당신도 큰 그림에서 미국 중앙은행이 금리인하를 하고, 중국이 달러 패권에서 독립하려 한다는데 동의한다면, 달러의 약세는 자연스러운 결론이 될 것임.