Docent: 통화정책회의를 앞두고 금융환경지수가 자주 언급되고 있어 그에 대한 도슨트며, 골드만삭스의 자료를 인용함. 시장 참여자들은 현재 금융환경지수가 통화정책의 긴축적인 시기가 끝나지 않았음에도 불구하고 완화되고 있는데 중앙은행이 불편함을 가질 것이라 여기고 있음. 작년 잭슨홀 때를 떠올리면 당연한 일이지만, 실제 금융환경지수는 중앙은행의 정책 이후가 아니라 정책 이전에 '기대'를 더욱 반영함. 때문에 2022년도 중앙은행의 금리인상을 앞서서 더욱 '긴축' 상태로 이동했음. 덧붙여, 통화정책이 경제성장률에 영향을 미치는 기간을 지나치게 오랜 기간으로 오해하고 있는데, 밀턴 프리드먼의 본래 이론을 보면 국내총생산의 '수준'과 국내총생산의 '성장률'을 구분해서 봐야 함. 그는 분명히 통화정책이 국내총생산의 수준에 미치는 영향의 정점이 12개월~16개월이라 했지만, 성장에 미치는 영향은 2개 분기에 불과함. 시장은 금융환경지수의 긴축적 환경이 더욱 오래 될 것이며, 경제성장률이 떨어질 것이라 오해하는 것과 달리 골드만삭스는 이러한 이유로 2023년은 통화정책이 성장을 억누르는 지대한 역할을 하지 않을 것(Short lags mean less drag in 2023)으로 봄.
Why do other forecasters assume longer lags between monetary policy tightening and growth than we do? One, we believe that a tightening in financial conditions begins to affect the economy when financial markets react to expected policy changes rather than when rate hikes are actually delivered. Market pricing of the Fed funds rate increased and financial conditions tightened well before rate hikes were delivered in 2022, which suggests that the drag on growth from tighter policy likely started earlier than the Fed funds rate would suggest on its own. Two, many economic commentators and forecasters confuse lags from monetary policy to GDP growth with lags to GDP levels. In fact, Milton Friedman's assessment that monetary policy acts with “long and variable lags” clearly referred to the time until the peak impact on the level of GDP. Correctly interpreted, Friedman’s 12-16 month estimate of the time until changes in policy have their peak impact on the level of GDP is consistent with our estimate of a peak drag on the GDP level after six quarters, but on GDP growth after two quarters. The commonly held view that monetary policy changes have a very lagged impact on economic growth therefore seems to largely reflect a misinterpretation of Friedman’s original comments.
Why do other forecasters assume longer lags between monetary policy tightening and growth than we do? One, we believe that a tightening in financial conditions begins to affect the economy when financial markets react to expected policy changes rather than when rate hikes are actually delivered. Market pricing of the Fed funds rate increased and financial conditions tightened well before rate hikes were delivered in 2022, which suggests that the drag on growth from tighter policy likely started earlier than the Fed funds rate would suggest on its own. Two, many economic commentators and forecasters confuse lags from monetary policy to GDP growth with lags to GDP levels. In fact, Milton Friedman's assessment that monetary policy acts with “long and variable lags” clearly referred to the time until the peak impact on the level of GDP. Correctly interpreted, Friedman’s 12-16 month estimate of the time until changes in policy have their peak impact on the level of GDP is consistent with our estimate of a peak drag on the GDP level after six quarters, but on GDP growth after two quarters. The commonly held view that monetary policy changes have a very lagged impact on economic growth therefore seems to largely reflect a misinterpretation of Friedman’s original comments.
Bottom-line: 20개국의 유럽 연합이 지난 4분기 경기 수축이란 예상과 달리 확장을 하면서 침체를 피해가는 경로 위에 섰음. 유럽 지역 4분기 경제성장률이 전분기 대비 +0.1% 성장했으며, 독일과 이탈리아는 수축, 프랑스와 스페인은 확장했음. 이 지역은 작년 한 해 전쟁 및 두 자릿수 이상의 인플레이션에도 불구 예상을 뛰어넘는 성장을 보였음. 이런 성장은 가계와 기업에 대한 정부 보조 및 생각보다 따듯했던 겨울이 기여한 부분이 있음.
The euro area is on course to avoid a recession after unexpectedly growing at the end of 2022, despite double-digit inflation and the war in Ukraine. Gross domestic product edged up by 0.1% in the final quarter, Eurostat said Tuesday, defying economist estimates for a contraction of 0.1%. While German and Italian output shrank, France and Spain recorded expansion. There was also stronger-than-anticipated data on Monday from Ireland. The euro region, which expanded to 20 countries when Croatia joined on Jan. 1, has struggled with record spike in prices sparked by the war-induced surge in energy costs. Governments have sought to offset the damage for households and firms, however, dispensing billions of euros in aid. A mild winter has also helped to calm energy markets.
The euro area is on course to avoid a recession after unexpectedly growing at the end of 2022, despite double-digit inflation and the war in Ukraine. Gross domestic product edged up by 0.1% in the final quarter, Eurostat said Tuesday, defying economist estimates for a contraction of 0.1%. While German and Italian output shrank, France and Spain recorded expansion. There was also stronger-than-anticipated data on Monday from Ireland. The euro region, which expanded to 20 countries when Croatia joined on Jan. 1, has struggled with record spike in prices sparked by the war-induced surge in energy costs. Governments have sought to offset the damage for households and firms, however, dispensing billions of euros in aid. A mild winter has also helped to calm energy markets.
Market Reaction: 노동비용이 예상을 하회하며 시장은 임금과 고용의 수요 우위가 중앙은행으로 하여금 시장에 강한 메시지를 줄 것이란 우려를 완화시킴. 다만, 1%의 비용 증가 자체도 여전히 높아 금리 경로를 탈선시킬 파급은 아님.
US employment costs rose at a slower-than-expected pace in the closing months of 2022, but probably not enough to derail the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further and keeping them higher for longer to reduce inflation.
US employment costs rose at a slower-than-expected pace in the closing months of 2022, but probably not enough to derail the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further and keeping them higher for longer to reduce inflation.
Policymakers lifted the Fed’s target for its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.
Market Reaction: Markets are making it clear they’re not scared to fight central banks.
Macro Trader
Docent: 통화정책회의를 앞두고 금융환경지수가 자주 언급되고 있어 그에 대한 도슨트며, 골드만삭스의 자료를 인용함. 시장 참여자들은 현재 금융환경지수가 통화정책의 긴축적인 시기가 끝나지 않았음에도 불구하고 완화되고 있는데 중앙은행이 불편함을 가질 것이라 여기고 있음. 작년 잭슨홀 때를 떠올리면 당연한 일이지만, 실제 금융환경지수는 중앙은행의 정책 이후가 아니라 정책 이전에 '기대'를 더욱 반영함. 때문에 2022년도 중앙은행의 금리인상을 앞서서 더욱…
Docent: 제이피모건의 보고서 제목은 'Powell doesn’t fight the market', 해당 보고서 내용 중 통화정책회의 전 많은 이들이 의구심을 가졌던 금융환경지수에 대한 대목이 있음. 위험자산 등의 상승이 금리인상 기조가 여전한 가운데 펼쳐진 때문에 이를 불편해하지 않겠냐는 것이었음. 그러나 질의응답에서 현재의 금융환경지수가 상당히 완화적 상태라 보지 않았다는 것은 주목할 점임.
When asked about the recent easing in financial conditions, Powell didn’t seem too concerned. In fact, he didn’t think conditions changed much over the past six weeks and he continues to believe conditions have “tightened significantly” over the past year.
When asked about the recent easing in financial conditions, Powell didn’t seem too concerned. In fact, he didn’t think conditions changed much over the past six weeks and he continues to believe conditions have “tightened significantly” over the past year.
Wow, the European Central Bank is already committing to another 50 basis point increase in March, this is very hawkish! 🔥
Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행이 오늘의 50bp 금리인상과 다음 달 마찬가지 50bp 인상은 널리 예상되었던 바임.
While the commitment to another half-point hike in March doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Lagarde’s forceful interventions over the past weeks, it is a bit puzzling given policymakers stress - also today - they’re data-dependent. The next policy meeting is weeks away and officials will have a new set of forecasts to discuss. Lets see what Lagarde will have to say when she meets the press.
While the commitment to another half-point hike in March doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Lagarde’s forceful interventions over the past weeks, it is a bit puzzling given policymakers stress - also today - they’re data-dependent. The next policy meeting is weeks away and officials will have a new set of forecasts to discuss. Lets see what Lagarde will have to say when she meets the press.