Market Reaction: 노동비용이 예상을 하회하며 시장은 임금과 고용의 수요 우위가 중앙은행으로 하여금 시장에 강한 메시지를 줄 것이란 우려를 완화시킴. 다만, 1%의 비용 증가 자체도 여전히 높아 금리 경로를 탈선시킬 파급은 아님.

US employment costs rose at a slower-than-expected pace in the closing months of 2022, but probably not enough to derail the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further and keeping them higher for longer to reduce inflation.

Bottom-line: Green Start

US stocks rose after wage data added to evidence inflation is cooling as the FOMC met to discuss its rate tightening path. The S&P added to its monthly gain of more than 5%, while the Nasdaq was heading for a January advance of 10%.

Policymakers lifted the Fed’s target for its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

S&P 500 Large Caps Are Enjoying This Fed Meeting.

Powell’s opening statement was less hawkish than after the last couple of meetings -- perhaps surprisingly so.

Bottom-line: Dovish.

Jerome Powell can't seem to talk markets down.

Market Reaction: Markets are making it clear they’re not scared to fight central banks.

Docent: 제이피모건의 보고서 제목은 'Powell doesn’t fight the market', 해당 보고서 내용 중 통화정책회의 전 많은 이들이 의구심을 가졌던 금융환경지수에 대한 대목이 있음. 위험자산 등의 상승이 금리인상 기조가 여전한 가운데 펼쳐진 때문에 이를 불편해하지 않겠냐는 것이었음. 그러나 질의응답에서 현재의 금융환경지수가 상당히 완화적 상태라 보지 않았다는 것은 주목할 점임.

When asked about the recent easing in financial conditions, Powell didn’t seem too concerned. In fact, he didn’t think conditions changed much over the past six weeks and he continues to believe conditions have “tightened significantly” over the past year.

ECB Raises Main Refinancing Rate by 50bps to 3.00%.

Wow, the European Central Bank is already committing to another 50 basis point increase in March, this is very hawkish! 🔥

Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행이 오늘의 50bp 금리인상과 다음 달 마찬가지 50bp 인상은 널리 예상되었던 바임.

While the commitment to another half-point hike in March doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Lagarde’s forceful interventions over the past weeks, it is a bit puzzling given policymakers stress - also today - they’re data-dependent. The next policy meeting is weeks away and officials will have a new set of forecasts to discuss. Lets see what Lagarde will have to say when she meets the press.

Market Reaction: 독일 10년물 국채 금리가 작년 11월 이후 가장 큰 폭인 13bps 하락함. 어제 미국 금리 결정에서도 본 것처럼, 시장 참여자들은 금리를 낮춰야는 이유가 아닌 그 무엇도 듣고 싶어하지 않을 것임. 그러므로 그녀가 어떤 말을 해도, 연말에서는 유럽 중앙은행도 금리를 인하하게 될 것이란 베팅이 유지 될 것임.

Looking at bonds, Germany 10-year yield drops 13bps to 2.16%, heading for the largest slide since November. ECB’s data dependency holds a modestly dovish tone and money markets price in around 10bps of cuts by the ECB by year-end. Will Lagarde push back against such expectations? Even she does, is this a market unwilling to listen to any guidance that doesn’t support the lower-yields narrative just as seen with the Fed yesterday?

Treasury yields have been down on speculation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may be open to the idea of a rate cut if inflation falls rapidly. 🎁

Lagarde: Confidence Is Increasing. Economy Has Proved More Resilient Than Expected.

Lagarde: Price Pressures Remain Strong. Decline in Inflation Rate Mostly Due to Energy.