Wow, the European Central Bank is already committing to another 50 basis point increase in March, this is very hawkish! 🔥
Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행이 오늘의 50bp 금리인상과 다음 달 마찬가지 50bp 인상은 널리 예상되었던 바임.
While the commitment to another half-point hike in March doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Lagarde’s forceful interventions over the past weeks, it is a bit puzzling given policymakers stress - also today - they’re data-dependent. The next policy meeting is weeks away and officials will have a new set of forecasts to discuss. Lets see what Lagarde will have to say when she meets the press.
While the commitment to another half-point hike in March doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Lagarde’s forceful interventions over the past weeks, it is a bit puzzling given policymakers stress - also today - they’re data-dependent. The next policy meeting is weeks away and officials will have a new set of forecasts to discuss. Lets see what Lagarde will have to say when she meets the press.
Market Reaction: 독일 10년물 국채 금리가 작년 11월 이후 가장 큰 폭인 13bps 하락함. 어제 미국 금리 결정에서도 본 것처럼, 시장 참여자들은 금리를 낮춰야는 이유가 아닌 그 무엇도 듣고 싶어하지 않을 것임. 그러므로 그녀가 어떤 말을 해도, 연말에서는 유럽 중앙은행도 금리를 인하하게 될 것이란 베팅이 유지 될 것임.
Looking at bonds, Germany 10-year yield drops 13bps to 2.16%, heading for the largest slide since November. ECB’s data dependency holds a modestly dovish tone and money markets price in around 10bps of cuts by the ECB by year-end. Will Lagarde push back against such expectations? Even she does, is this a market unwilling to listen to any guidance that doesn’t support the lower-yields narrative just as seen with the Fed yesterday?
Looking at bonds, Germany 10-year yield drops 13bps to 2.16%, heading for the largest slide since November. ECB’s data dependency holds a modestly dovish tone and money markets price in around 10bps of cuts by the ECB by year-end. Will Lagarde push back against such expectations? Even she does, is this a market unwilling to listen to any guidance that doesn’t support the lower-yields narrative just as seen with the Fed yesterday?
Treasury yields have been down on speculation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may be open to the idea of a rate cut if inflation falls rapidly. 🎁
Lagarde: Confidence Is Increasing. Economy Has Proved More Resilient Than Expected.
Lagarde: Price Pressures Remain Strong. Decline in Inflation Rate Mostly Due to Energy.
Lagarde: Risks to Growth Outlook Have Become More Balanced. The energy shock could fade faster and companies could adapt more quickly.
Apple call:
Cook says Apple saw revenue growth in Canada, Spain and other smaller markets. He’s now going through why the quarter was down significantly.
Cook now says iPhone revenue would have been flat year over year, not a major decline, on a constant currency basis.
Cook says Apple saw revenue growth in Canada, Spain and other smaller markets. He’s now going through why the quarter was down significantly.
Cook now says iPhone revenue would have been flat year over year, not a major decline, on a constant currency basis.
Apple call:
Cook says the 8% revenue decline for Wearables, Home and Accessories was due to foreign-exchange headwinds and the macroeconomic environment.
Cook says the revenue growth in services topped internal expectations. He says there were records in cloud and payment services.
Apple has more than 935 million paid subnoscriptions, Cook says.
Cook says the 8% revenue decline for Wearables, Home and Accessories was due to foreign-exchange headwinds and the macroeconomic environment.
Cook says the revenue growth in services topped internal expectations. He says there were records in cloud and payment services.
Apple has more than 935 million paid subnoscriptions, Cook says.
Apple call:
Cook says Apple is always looking forward and focused on the next challenge after one of its worst quarterly results ever. He says he is more confident about the future of Apple than he has ever been.
Cook says Apple is always looking forward and focused on the next challenge after one of its worst quarterly results ever. He says he is more confident about the future of Apple than he has ever been.
Apple CFO:
Maestri is sticking to the party line, saying that Apple actually grew revenue on a constant currency basis.
services faced foreign exchange headwinds but grew 6% to a record anyway. This includes December quarter records for the App Store and AppleCare.
Maestri is sticking to the party line, saying that Apple actually grew revenue on a constant currency basis.
services faced foreign exchange headwinds but grew 6% to a record anyway. This includes December quarter records for the App Store and AppleCare.
Apple CFO:
The iPhone install base is at an all-time high in all regions. The base grew by double digits in emerging markets, he says. That includes record switchers in India.
Operating expenses were significantly below guidance range “as we took actions to respond to the current macro environment.”.
The iPhone install base is at an all-time high in all regions. The base grew by double digits in emerging markets, he says. That includes record switchers in India.
Operating expenses were significantly below guidance range “as we took actions to respond to the current macro environment.”.
Apple CFO:
Mac revenue was down nearly 30% year-over-year due to the tough comparison from last year (new MacBook Pro in October 2021), the macro-environment and significant foreign exchange headwinds.
iPad sales looked good because the December quarter in the prior year had supply-chain issues, driving that number down in Q1 2022. That created a good comparison for Q1 2023.
Mac revenue was down nearly 30% year-over-year due to the tough comparison from last year (new MacBook Pro in October 2021), the macro-environment and significant foreign exchange headwinds.
iPad sales looked good because the December quarter in the prior year had supply-chain issues, driving that number down in Q1 2022. That created a good comparison for Q1 2023.
Apple is not giving revenue guidance, but it is giving some directional insights.
Apple call Market Reaction:
07:07 - The stock down 4%.
07:09 - Stock now down 3.8% after Cook mentions the next-generation Home Pod.
07:33 - The stock is jumping between a decline of 2% and 3% as the CFO speaks on margin growth.
07:35 - The stock paring some losses a little amid Cook’s comments about the December uptick in China.
07:37 - The stock is now at a 1.5% decline as Cook addresses demand in emerging markets.
07:41 - The stock is now close to erasing its decline as Cook discusses AI.
07:07 - The stock down 4%.
07:09 - Stock now down 3.8% after Cook mentions the next-generation Home Pod.
07:33 - The stock is jumping between a decline of 2% and 3% as the CFO speaks on margin growth.
07:35 - The stock paring some losses a little amid Cook’s comments about the December uptick in China.
07:37 - The stock is now at a 1.5% decline as Cook addresses demand in emerging markets.
07:41 - The stock is now close to erasing its decline as Cook discusses AI.
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• Things to Know
‘Markets Play Game of Chicken With Central Banks on Pivot Bets.’
시장 참여자들은 중앙은행과 치킨게임을 하고 있음. 중앙은행은 인플레이션이 통제될 수 있는 충분히 제한적 영역의 금리에 이르려면 몇 차례 추가적인 금리인상이 필요하다 했지만, 시장 참여자들은 파월 의장의 발언(the disinflationary process has started.)에 더욱 주목하면서 올해 대다수 중앙은행이 금리인하를 할 것에 베팅을 하고 있음.
영화 이유없는 반항에서 치킨게임이 등장하는데, 게임에서 이기는 자와 지는 자의 득실 차이가 매우 큼. 중앙은행과 투자자들이 어떤 종류의 게임을 하고 있는지 명확하게 알고 시장을 대응하는 것이 도움이 될 것임.
‘Markets Play Game of Chicken With Central Banks on Pivot Bets.’
시장 참여자들은 중앙은행과 치킨게임을 하고 있음. 중앙은행은 인플레이션이 통제될 수 있는 충분히 제한적 영역의 금리에 이르려면 몇 차례 추가적인 금리인상이 필요하다 했지만, 시장 참여자들은 파월 의장의 발언(the disinflationary process has started.)에 더욱 주목하면서 올해 대다수 중앙은행이 금리인하를 할 것에 베팅을 하고 있음.
영화 이유없는 반항에서 치킨게임이 등장하는데, 게임에서 이기는 자와 지는 자의 득실 차이가 매우 큼. 중앙은행과 투자자들이 어떤 종류의 게임을 하고 있는지 명확하게 알고 시장을 대응하는 것이 도움이 될 것임.