Market Reaction: Markets are making it clear they’re not scared to fight central banks.
Macro Trader
Docent: 통화정책회의를 앞두고 금융환경지수가 자주 언급되고 있어 그에 대한 도슨트며, 골드만삭스의 자료를 인용함. 시장 참여자들은 현재 금융환경지수가 통화정책의 긴축적인 시기가 끝나지 않았음에도 불구하고 완화되고 있는데 중앙은행이 불편함을 가질 것이라 여기고 있음. 작년 잭슨홀 때를 떠올리면 당연한 일이지만, 실제 금융환경지수는 중앙은행의 정책 이후가 아니라 정책 이전에 '기대'를 더욱 반영함. 때문에 2022년도 중앙은행의 금리인상을 앞서서 더욱…
Docent: 제이피모건의 보고서 제목은 'Powell doesn’t fight the market', 해당 보고서 내용 중 통화정책회의 전 많은 이들이 의구심을 가졌던 금융환경지수에 대한 대목이 있음. 위험자산 등의 상승이 금리인상 기조가 여전한 가운데 펼쳐진 때문에 이를 불편해하지 않겠냐는 것이었음. 그러나 질의응답에서 현재의 금융환경지수가 상당히 완화적 상태라 보지 않았다는 것은 주목할 점임.
When asked about the recent easing in financial conditions, Powell didn’t seem too concerned. In fact, he didn’t think conditions changed much over the past six weeks and he continues to believe conditions have “tightened significantly” over the past year.
When asked about the recent easing in financial conditions, Powell didn’t seem too concerned. In fact, he didn’t think conditions changed much over the past six weeks and he continues to believe conditions have “tightened significantly” over the past year.
Wow, the European Central Bank is already committing to another 50 basis point increase in March, this is very hawkish! 🔥
Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행이 오늘의 50bp 금리인상과 다음 달 마찬가지 50bp 인상은 널리 예상되었던 바임.
While the commitment to another half-point hike in March doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Lagarde’s forceful interventions over the past weeks, it is a bit puzzling given policymakers stress - also today - they’re data-dependent. The next policy meeting is weeks away and officials will have a new set of forecasts to discuss. Lets see what Lagarde will have to say when she meets the press.
While the commitment to another half-point hike in March doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Lagarde’s forceful interventions over the past weeks, it is a bit puzzling given policymakers stress - also today - they’re data-dependent. The next policy meeting is weeks away and officials will have a new set of forecasts to discuss. Lets see what Lagarde will have to say when she meets the press.
Market Reaction: 독일 10년물 국채 금리가 작년 11월 이후 가장 큰 폭인 13bps 하락함. 어제 미국 금리 결정에서도 본 것처럼, 시장 참여자들은 금리를 낮춰야는 이유가 아닌 그 무엇도 듣고 싶어하지 않을 것임. 그러므로 그녀가 어떤 말을 해도, 연말에서는 유럽 중앙은행도 금리를 인하하게 될 것이란 베팅이 유지 될 것임.
Looking at bonds, Germany 10-year yield drops 13bps to 2.16%, heading for the largest slide since November. ECB’s data dependency holds a modestly dovish tone and money markets price in around 10bps of cuts by the ECB by year-end. Will Lagarde push back against such expectations? Even she does, is this a market unwilling to listen to any guidance that doesn’t support the lower-yields narrative just as seen with the Fed yesterday?
Looking at bonds, Germany 10-year yield drops 13bps to 2.16%, heading for the largest slide since November. ECB’s data dependency holds a modestly dovish tone and money markets price in around 10bps of cuts by the ECB by year-end. Will Lagarde push back against such expectations? Even she does, is this a market unwilling to listen to any guidance that doesn’t support the lower-yields narrative just as seen with the Fed yesterday?
Treasury yields have been down on speculation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell may be open to the idea of a rate cut if inflation falls rapidly. 🎁
Lagarde: Confidence Is Increasing. Economy Has Proved More Resilient Than Expected.
Lagarde: Price Pressures Remain Strong. Decline in Inflation Rate Mostly Due to Energy.
Lagarde: Risks to Growth Outlook Have Become More Balanced. The energy shock could fade faster and companies could adapt more quickly.
Apple call:
Cook says Apple saw revenue growth in Canada, Spain and other smaller markets. He’s now going through why the quarter was down significantly.
Cook now says iPhone revenue would have been flat year over year, not a major decline, on a constant currency basis.
Cook says Apple saw revenue growth in Canada, Spain and other smaller markets. He’s now going through why the quarter was down significantly.
Cook now says iPhone revenue would have been flat year over year, not a major decline, on a constant currency basis.
Apple call:
Cook says the 8% revenue decline for Wearables, Home and Accessories was due to foreign-exchange headwinds and the macroeconomic environment.
Cook says the revenue growth in services topped internal expectations. He says there were records in cloud and payment services.
Apple has more than 935 million paid subnoscriptions, Cook says.
Cook says the 8% revenue decline for Wearables, Home and Accessories was due to foreign-exchange headwinds and the macroeconomic environment.
Cook says the revenue growth in services topped internal expectations. He says there were records in cloud and payment services.
Apple has more than 935 million paid subnoscriptions, Cook says.
Apple call:
Cook says Apple is always looking forward and focused on the next challenge after one of its worst quarterly results ever. He says he is more confident about the future of Apple than he has ever been.
Cook says Apple is always looking forward and focused on the next challenge after one of its worst quarterly results ever. He says he is more confident about the future of Apple than he has ever been.
Apple CFO:
Maestri is sticking to the party line, saying that Apple actually grew revenue on a constant currency basis.
services faced foreign exchange headwinds but grew 6% to a record anyway. This includes December quarter records for the App Store and AppleCare.
Maestri is sticking to the party line, saying that Apple actually grew revenue on a constant currency basis.
services faced foreign exchange headwinds but grew 6% to a record anyway. This includes December quarter records for the App Store and AppleCare.