Bottom-line: 지표 중 유일하게 위안 삼을 것은 시간 당 임금 상승률임.
The one bit of solace here is that hourly earnings are coming in on target, at 0.3%.
The one bit of solace here is that hourly earnings are coming in on target, at 0.3%.
Bottom-line: 금번 고용에 있어 최고 추정치도 32만건으로, 51만 7천건은 큰 폭의 예상치 밖 결과임.
They exceeded economist estimates by a longshot. The highest forecast called for a gain of 320,000.
They exceeded economist estimates by a longshot. The highest forecast called for a gain of 320,000.
Market Reaction: 예상을 뛰어넘은 고용 지표에도 지수 선물은 곤두박질 친 뒤 소폭 회복 중임. 강세론자들은 인플레이션 하락에 따른 중앙은행의 역할 종료, 다수 대기업의 해고에도 강한 고용시장을 긍정적으로 해석하려는 모습임.
Stock futures are coming up off the lows a bit. The bulls aren’t ready to surrender their comforting narrative that inflation is coming down and the Fed is near done. Still, this job report really showcases that, for all the layoff announcements we’ve been getting from the big tech companies, the underlying economy here is still quite strong.
Stock futures are coming up off the lows a bit. The bulls aren’t ready to surrender their comforting narrative that inflation is coming down and the Fed is near done. Still, this job report really showcases that, for all the layoff announcements we’ve been getting from the big tech companies, the underlying economy here is still quite strong.
Details: 서비스 부문에서 39만 7천건 증가, 정부 부문의 경우 파업 종료에 따른 효과가 있었음.
There was one technical detail for the gains- the increase in government jobs reflected the end of a university strike. Services jobs contributed 397,000 of those.
There was one technical detail for the gains- the increase in government jobs reflected the end of a university strike. Services jobs contributed 397,000 of those.
Details: 실업률 하락의 경우 55세 이상 경제활동인구의 기여가 컸음.
The unemployment rate was driven lower in part by the over-55 age group falling from 2.7 to 2.3%.
The unemployment rate was driven lower in part by the over-55 age group falling from 2.7 to 2.3%.
Macro Trader
• Things to Know ‘Markets Play Game of Chicken With Central Banks on Pivot Bets.’ 시장 참여자들은 중앙은행과 치킨게임을 하고 있음. 중앙은행은 인플레이션이 통제될 수 있는 충분히 제한적 영역의 금리에 이르려면 몇 차례 추가적인 금리인상이 필요하다 했지만, 시장 참여자들은 파월 의장의 발언(the disinflationary process has started.)에 더욱 주목하면서 올해 대다수…
“This is a reminder of what Powell tried to say, but the market wasn’t listening.”
Bond Reaction: 2년물 국채 금리가 12bp 상승했지만, 고용에 대한 추정치에서 얼마나 극단적으로 멀리 벗어난 실제치인지를 따져볼 때, 상당히 제한적 반응이라 하겠음.
Two-year yields remain up 12 basis points, which isn’t nothing, but as my colleague Chris Anstey points out, it’s a relatively restrained move given how far the report deviated from estimates.
Two-year yields remain up 12 basis points, which isn’t nothing, but as my colleague Chris Anstey points out, it’s a relatively restrained move given how far the report deviated from estimates.
Monday Appetizer: 모건스탠리는 'Which Story to Believe?'라는 보고서를 통해 작년 한 해와 달리 거의 모든 위험자산이 최고의 1월을 보낸 것에 대해 다루며, 대표적인 세 가지(중국, 유럽, 미국) 핵심에 대해 이야기 하고 있음. 결론부터 말하자면, 중국에 대한 강한 확신, 그리고 미국에 대한 가장 덜한 확신, 그 사이에 놓인 유럽의 이야기 때문에 아시아에 대한 비중을 확대하고 미국을 상승에서 매도하길 권고하고 있음. 미국 주식의 저점 대비 상승 속에 많은 투자은행들이 매도를 외치는데 불안함을 가지고 있지만, 실질 이들의 지역 투자의견을 살펴보면, 아시아와 유럽(골드만삭스의 'Why Europe’s outperformance has further to go', 'The Boost to Global Growth and Inflation From China’s Reopening')에 대해서는 여전히 위험자산 비중확대를 권고하고 있단 사실을 알 수 있음.
Tension Rise
The US shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon that had been flying over sensitive North American military sites for days, prompting an angry response. Beijing insisted it was a civilian aircraft that had strayed off course, and warned that it "reserves the right to make further responses." The US is collecting and analyzing the debris from the balloon.
The US shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon that had been flying over sensitive North American military sites for days, prompting an angry response. Beijing insisted it was a civilian aircraft that had strayed off course, and warned that it "reserves the right to make further responses." The US is collecting and analyzing the debris from the balloon.
Docent: 곤히 잠들어야 했을 시간의 느닷없는 고용 지표 충격과 미국 상공에 있다 터져버린 풍선으로부터 고통을 받는 국면, 이런 일들이 일어나기 전까지 투자자들의 포지션은 어떠했는지 도이치뱅크 집계를 활용해 도슨트함. 재량적 투자자의 경우 2010년 이후 현재까지 계산한 주식 비중의 백분위에서 27분위까지 주식을 확대했음. 다만, 비중 측면에서는 44주 연속 약세 국면에 있음. 알고리즘으로 투자되는 펀드의 경우 변동성 제어가 지속해서 주식 비중을 확대해 2010년 이후 비중의 백분위로 따지면 17분위까지 올라왔고, 변동성이 낮아짐에 따라 추가적인 비중 확대 여지가 있음. 추세를 추종하는 전략의 경우 연간 처음으로 발생한 주식의 추세 신호에 따라 주식 비중을 확대(27분위수), 위험균등의 경우 여전히 낮은 수준의 비중을 유지하고 있음. 재량적 투자자의 경우 역사적으로 ISM 제조업 지수의 상승/하락에 발맞추어 투자 비중을 확대/축소하고 있음. 개별 주식 옵션 시장의 경우 대형 성장주와 기술주 옵션에서 콜 옵션 계약에서 풋 옵션 계약을 차감한 순비중이 2022년 2월 이후 최고치로 급격히 높아짐. 흥미로운 점은 개별 주식 콜 옵션 순계약 수가 가장 많은 50개 주식의 성과와 러셀 3000 동일가중 지수의 상대강도가 2021년 5월 이후 줄곧 열위에 있다 2022년 12월 이후 우위에 있다는 것임.
Discretionary positioning moved up this week. Investor sentiment bounced a little from last week (27th percentile), while remaining in bearish territory for a record 44th consecutive week. Across systematic strategie, Vol control funds allocation is around 58% (17th percentile), with room to rise further if vol continues to ease. CTAs have increased their equity allocation (27th percentile) to modestly overweight, as the equity momentum signal turned positive for the first time in a year. Risk parity funds allocation remained largely flat at last week’s level (11th percentile). Net call volume in mega-cap growth and Tech spiked. A basket of top call volume stocks has outperformed the market strongly this year, after continuously underperforming for several months.
Discretionary positioning moved up this week. Investor sentiment bounced a little from last week (27th percentile), while remaining in bearish territory for a record 44th consecutive week. Across systematic strategie, Vol control funds allocation is around 58% (17th percentile), with room to rise further if vol continues to ease. CTAs have increased their equity allocation (27th percentile) to modestly overweight, as the equity momentum signal turned positive for the first time in a year. Risk parity funds allocation remained largely flat at last week’s level (11th percentile). Net call volume in mega-cap growth and Tech spiked. A basket of top call volume stocks has outperformed the market strongly this year, after continuously underperforming for several months.
Bottom-line: 투자등급에서 투기등급으로 회사채의 신용평가가 강등 될 때 ‘추락한 천사’라 부르고 있음. 이 추락한 천사만 선별해서 투자하는 펀드들은 바이러스 대확산 이후 실질 경제가 큰 폭으로 부진에 빠졌음에도 불구 새로운 투자 대상을 쉽게 구할 수 없었는데, 전례없는 중앙은행과 정부의 지원 덕분이었음. 올해는 이런 기업들이 이자부담이 증가하고 수익성이 떨어지면서 추락한 천사가 될 가능성이 높다고 보고 있음. 특히 기업의 실적 발표 기간을 통해 이런 취약성이 수면 위로 드러날 것으로 보임. 분석가들은 유로 발행 회사채의 경우 160억 달러, 달러 발행 회사채의 경우 1,000억 달러 규모가 추락한 천사로 강등될 것이며, 비율로 살피자면 투기등급 끝자락에서 투자등급으로 상향되는 '떠오르는 별'의 두배에 달할 것이라 함. 투자자들은 이런 상황을 기대하고 있다고 보여지는데, 롬바드 오디에의 추락한 천사에 투자하는 펀드는 2021년 후반기에 설정되었으며, 모집 된 자금의 1/4이 최근 몇 달 동안 급격히 유입 된 것임. 해당 펀드의 운용역은 투자등급에서 투기등급으로의 강등이 더 많이 발생하고 가격 변동이 커지는데서 기회가 많이 생길 것으로 기대한다고 밝힘.
Fallen Angels Are a Hot Topic as Earnings Recession Fears Grow. A money manager focusing on once-safe bonds downgraded to junk is seeing booming client interest in these so-called fallen angels. This year is expected to bring more such bonds as an earnings slowdown and higher debt costs start to hurt companies, said Ashton Parker, who helps run the fallen angel fund at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. Credit analysts expect as much as €15 billion ($16 billion) of them in Europe and $100 billion in the US. This niche part of the debt market has barely seen any entrants since the early stage of the pandemic, despite all the economic turbulence, as companies then benefited from unprecedented central bank and government help. That’s due to change after a surge in the cost of servicing debt and as earnings deteriorate. These factors will eat into the metrics that ratings companies look at and potentially trigger downgrades that would take some bonds from investment-grade status to junk. Lombard Odier is not alone as a chorus of analysts has been flagging the risk of fallen angels. Analysts at UniCredit SpA said the European earnings season will reveal the cracks. They forecast fallen angels within iBoxx indexes this year at double or even triple the €5.5 billion recorded in 2022. Meanwhile strategists at BNP Paribas SA have urged clients to “avoid fallen angel risk” in US credit market sectors such as software, media, machinery and chemicals. The French bank’s researchers estimate $75 billion to $100 billion of them this year. Bank of America strategists Oleg Melentyev and Eric Yu have also called for double the amount of fallen angels compared to rising stars — companies rising to investment-grade — this year among firms that are near the junk threshold. Lombard Odier launched its fallen angel fund in late 2021 and has drawn €320 million, with more than a quarter of it coming in over the past couple of months, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. That reflects investors expecting the action to start. “When there’s a lot more fallen angels, or when there is a lot of fallen angels in a specific sector, then price action will be larger and the opportunities greater,” Parker said.
Fallen Angels Are a Hot Topic as Earnings Recession Fears Grow. A money manager focusing on once-safe bonds downgraded to junk is seeing booming client interest in these so-called fallen angels. This year is expected to bring more such bonds as an earnings slowdown and higher debt costs start to hurt companies, said Ashton Parker, who helps run the fallen angel fund at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. Credit analysts expect as much as €15 billion ($16 billion) of them in Europe and $100 billion in the US. This niche part of the debt market has barely seen any entrants since the early stage of the pandemic, despite all the economic turbulence, as companies then benefited from unprecedented central bank and government help. That’s due to change after a surge in the cost of servicing debt and as earnings deteriorate. These factors will eat into the metrics that ratings companies look at and potentially trigger downgrades that would take some bonds from investment-grade status to junk. Lombard Odier is not alone as a chorus of analysts has been flagging the risk of fallen angels. Analysts at UniCredit SpA said the European earnings season will reveal the cracks. They forecast fallen angels within iBoxx indexes this year at double or even triple the €5.5 billion recorded in 2022. Meanwhile strategists at BNP Paribas SA have urged clients to “avoid fallen angel risk” in US credit market sectors such as software, media, machinery and chemicals. The French bank’s researchers estimate $75 billion to $100 billion of them this year. Bank of America strategists Oleg Melentyev and Eric Yu have also called for double the amount of fallen angels compared to rising stars — companies rising to investment-grade — this year among firms that are near the junk threshold. Lombard Odier launched its fallen angel fund in late 2021 and has drawn €320 million, with more than a quarter of it coming in over the past couple of months, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. That reflects investors expecting the action to start. “When there’s a lot more fallen angels, or when there is a lot of fallen angels in a specific sector, then price action will be larger and the opportunities greater,” Parker said.