Bottom-line: 투자등급에서 투기등급으로 회사채의 신용평가가 강등 될 때 ‘추락한 천사’라 부르고 있음. 이 추락한 천사만 선별해서 투자하는 펀드들은 바이러스 대확산 이후 실질 경제가 큰 폭으로 부진에 빠졌음에도 불구 새로운 투자 대상을 쉽게 구할 수 없었는데, 전례없는 중앙은행과 정부의 지원 덕분이었음. 올해는 이런 기업들이 이자부담이 증가하고 수익성이 떨어지면서 추락한 천사가 될 가능성이 높다고 보고 있음. 특히 기업의 실적 발표 기간을 통해 이런 취약성이 수면 위로 드러날 것으로 보임. 분석가들은 유로 발행 회사채의 경우 160억 달러, 달러 발행 회사채의 경우 1,000억 달러 규모가 추락한 천사로 강등될 것이며, 비율로 살피자면 투기등급 끝자락에서 투자등급으로 상향되는 '떠오르는 별'의 두배에 달할 것이라 함. 투자자들은 이런 상황을 기대하고 있다고 보여지는데, 롬바드 오디에의 추락한 천사에 투자하는 펀드는 2021년 후반기에 설정되었으며, 모집 된 자금의 1/4이 최근 몇 달 동안 급격히 유입 된 것임. 해당 펀드의 운용역은 투자등급에서 투기등급으로의 강등이 더 많이 발생하고 가격 변동이 커지는데서 기회가 많이 생길 것으로 기대한다고 밝힘.
Fallen Angels Are a Hot Topic as Earnings Recession Fears Grow. A money manager focusing on once-safe bonds downgraded to junk is seeing booming client interest in these so-called fallen angels. This year is expected to bring more such bonds as an earnings slowdown and higher debt costs start to hurt companies, said Ashton Parker, who helps run the fallen angel fund at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. Credit analysts expect as much as €15 billion ($16 billion) of them in Europe and $100 billion in the US. This niche part of the debt market has barely seen any entrants since the early stage of the pandemic, despite all the economic turbulence, as companies then benefited from unprecedented central bank and government help. That’s due to change after a surge in the cost of servicing debt and as earnings deteriorate. These factors will eat into the metrics that ratings companies look at and potentially trigger downgrades that would take some bonds from investment-grade status to junk. Lombard Odier is not alone as a chorus of analysts has been flagging the risk of fallen angels. Analysts at UniCredit SpA said the European earnings season will reveal the cracks. They forecast fallen angels within iBoxx indexes this year at double or even triple the €5.5 billion recorded in 2022. Meanwhile strategists at BNP Paribas SA have urged clients to “avoid fallen angel risk” in US credit market sectors such as software, media, machinery and chemicals. The French bank’s researchers estimate $75 billion to $100 billion of them this year. Bank of America strategists Oleg Melentyev and Eric Yu have also called for double the amount of fallen angels compared to rising stars — companies rising to investment-grade — this year among firms that are near the junk threshold. Lombard Odier launched its fallen angel fund in late 2021 and has drawn €320 million, with more than a quarter of it coming in over the past couple of months, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. That reflects investors expecting the action to start. “When there’s a lot more fallen angels, or when there is a lot of fallen angels in a specific sector, then price action will be larger and the opportunities greater,” Parker said.
Fallen Angels Are a Hot Topic as Earnings Recession Fears Grow. A money manager focusing on once-safe bonds downgraded to junk is seeing booming client interest in these so-called fallen angels. This year is expected to bring more such bonds as an earnings slowdown and higher debt costs start to hurt companies, said Ashton Parker, who helps run the fallen angel fund at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. Credit analysts expect as much as €15 billion ($16 billion) of them in Europe and $100 billion in the US. This niche part of the debt market has barely seen any entrants since the early stage of the pandemic, despite all the economic turbulence, as companies then benefited from unprecedented central bank and government help. That’s due to change after a surge in the cost of servicing debt and as earnings deteriorate. These factors will eat into the metrics that ratings companies look at and potentially trigger downgrades that would take some bonds from investment-grade status to junk. Lombard Odier is not alone as a chorus of analysts has been flagging the risk of fallen angels. Analysts at UniCredit SpA said the European earnings season will reveal the cracks. They forecast fallen angels within iBoxx indexes this year at double or even triple the €5.5 billion recorded in 2022. Meanwhile strategists at BNP Paribas SA have urged clients to “avoid fallen angel risk” in US credit market sectors such as software, media, machinery and chemicals. The French bank’s researchers estimate $75 billion to $100 billion of them this year. Bank of America strategists Oleg Melentyev and Eric Yu have also called for double the amount of fallen angels compared to rising stars — companies rising to investment-grade — this year among firms that are near the junk threshold. Lombard Odier launched its fallen angel fund in late 2021 and has drawn €320 million, with more than a quarter of it coming in over the past couple of months, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. That reflects investors expecting the action to start. “When there’s a lot more fallen angels, or when there is a lot of fallen angels in a specific sector, then price action will be larger and the opportunities greater,” Parker said.
Bottom-line: 대형 헤지펀드들이 연 초 이후 강한 주식시장 상승 속에서 공매도 포지션을 청산함과 동시에 매수 포지션도 함께 줄임. 흔히 말하는 총 투자 규모 축소(De-Grossing, Gross = Long position + Short position) 현상이며, 2021년 레딧을 통한 단기 투자자들의 기관 공매도 주식 공격 이후 가장 큰 규모로 발생했음. 이는 헤지펀드들이 갑작스러운 위험자산 상승에 공매도를 축소했지만, 매수도 줄이면서 이 상승세에 동참하길 거부하고 있다는 의미임. 제이피모건에 따르면 금요일 고용지표 발표 전 목요일에 발생한 총 투자 규모 축소는 2018년 집계 이후 열번째로 컸다고 함. 비단, 이런 운용 쪽 뿐만 아니라 증권 분석 쪽도 최근 시장 상승과 상반되게 약세론이 지배적임.
Big-money speculators are shunning the new-year equity rally, unconvinced by the buying frenzy that has swept across the retail crowd as well as corporate America. While being forced to unwind bearish bets in droves by last week’s risk-on rotation, hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage have been reluctant to chase market gains. Their long positions were trimmed during the week through Thursday as the S&P 500 Index posted its fourth weekly advance in five. The reduction in both long and short positions — a phenomenon known on Wall Street as de-grossing — led to the largest overall retreat since January 2021, when day traders infamously banded together on Reddit to take on professional short sellers. Further evidence of professional investor caution was evident in data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co., showing Thursday marked the 10th-biggest de-grossing session since the start of 2018. Combined with long activity, the firm’s prime brokerage noted flows were “quite negative” over the past four weeks. While hedge funds are well known for their defensive exposure — a tilt that allowed them to fare better during last year’s selloff, the tentative positioning speaks to a lingering sense that the S&P 500’s roughly 17% gain from October may have gone too far given the Federal Reserve is still in tightening mode and corporate profits are falling. The lack of faith contrasts to a market where corporate buybacks are starting off the year at a record pace and the retail army is boosting its presence in stock trading above the meme-era peak. “The equity guys are pretty shell-shocked and are not behaving with that kind of conviction,” said Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory Advisors. “If you look at the sell side, it’s all pretty uniformly bearish.”
Big-money speculators are shunning the new-year equity rally, unconvinced by the buying frenzy that has swept across the retail crowd as well as corporate America. While being forced to unwind bearish bets in droves by last week’s risk-on rotation, hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage have been reluctant to chase market gains. Their long positions were trimmed during the week through Thursday as the S&P 500 Index posted its fourth weekly advance in five. The reduction in both long and short positions — a phenomenon known on Wall Street as de-grossing — led to the largest overall retreat since January 2021, when day traders infamously banded together on Reddit to take on professional short sellers. Further evidence of professional investor caution was evident in data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co., showing Thursday marked the 10th-biggest de-grossing session since the start of 2018. Combined with long activity, the firm’s prime brokerage noted flows were “quite negative” over the past four weeks. While hedge funds are well known for their defensive exposure — a tilt that allowed them to fare better during last year’s selloff, the tentative positioning speaks to a lingering sense that the S&P 500’s roughly 17% gain from October may have gone too far given the Federal Reserve is still in tightening mode and corporate profits are falling. The lack of faith contrasts to a market where corporate buybacks are starting off the year at a record pace and the retail army is boosting its presence in stock trading above the meme-era peak. “The equity guys are pretty shell-shocked and are not behaving with that kind of conviction,” said Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory Advisors. “If you look at the sell side, it’s all pretty uniformly bearish.”
Bottom-line: 아시아 신흥국 지수의 올 한 해 매출 성장률이 전년 대비 5.3% 증가할 것으로 추정되며 전년과 큰 변동이 없는 미국, 오히려 감소할 것으로 추정되는 유럽과 대조적임. 매출은 이 지수에 포함 된 중국이 9.1%, 인도가 7.1% 전년 대비 성장할 것으로 추정되며, 중국의 경우 작년 11월 추정치 하향이 바닥을 봤지만 한국과 대만의 추정치 하향이 지속되며 아시아 신흥국 지수 전반의 탄력을 약하게 만들었음. 중국 경제 재개방의 낙수효과, 비용절감과 신중한 투자, 개선되는 제조업 지표, 늦춰진 재개방 만큼 추가적인 상방이 기대되는 서비스업 등으로 인해 아시아 신흥국 지수는 향후 추가적인 매출 성장률 상향이 기대됨.
The fast improving revenue outlook for emerging Asian companies augurs well for the region’s equity markets, even as the outlook for the global economy remains murky. Sales at MSCI Emerging Markets Index companies are expected to rise 5.3% in 2023 from a year earlier, led by 9.1% growth in China and a 7.1% rise in India, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. That compares with forecasts for a very small gain for S&P 500 companies and a drop for those in the Stoxx Europe 600. “The rising revenue outlook across emerging markets might be a better gauge of consumer recovery than earnings this year on a full reopening of economies,” said Marvin Chen, senior equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Spillovers from China’s improving demand can support sales growth in the region which, along with corporate cost-cutting measures and prudent investment plans, might eventually translate into profit gains, he said. “While both 2023 revenue and earnings expectations bottomed out in early November, coinciding with China’s shift toward reopening, earning revisions have lagged behind revenue as markets — such as South Korea and Taiwan — drag profit outlooks,” Chen said. The outlook for the region is fast improving, as indicated by better manufacturing data, as the region becomes more optimistic about the boost from China’s reopening. The service sector is likely to enjoy a further boost from delayed economic reopenings.
The fast improving revenue outlook for emerging Asian companies augurs well for the region’s equity markets, even as the outlook for the global economy remains murky. Sales at MSCI Emerging Markets Index companies are expected to rise 5.3% in 2023 from a year earlier, led by 9.1% growth in China and a 7.1% rise in India, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. That compares with forecasts for a very small gain for S&P 500 companies and a drop for those in the Stoxx Europe 600. “The rising revenue outlook across emerging markets might be a better gauge of consumer recovery than earnings this year on a full reopening of economies,” said Marvin Chen, senior equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Spillovers from China’s improving demand can support sales growth in the region which, along with corporate cost-cutting measures and prudent investment plans, might eventually translate into profit gains, he said. “While both 2023 revenue and earnings expectations bottomed out in early November, coinciding with China’s shift toward reopening, earning revisions have lagged behind revenue as markets — such as South Korea and Taiwan — drag profit outlooks,” Chen said. The outlook for the region is fast improving, as indicated by better manufacturing data, as the region becomes more optimistic about the boost from China’s reopening. The service sector is likely to enjoy a further boost from delayed economic reopenings.
Powell: asked about his biggest worry about inflation, says that we’re just at the start of the process of disinflation. Supply chains are improving. Disinflation is expected in housing — in the second half of 2023. The biggest concern is when will disinflation come in core services prices, excluding housing.
Powell: We are not trying to hide out decisions from the public. We want to be transparent. We are not looking to surprise markets.
Powell: Reduced immigration was a factor leading to worker shortages during the pandemic. But immigration is now on the rise again, potentially helping with labor market tightness.
Bottom-line: 물가가 다시 상승하고, 고용 지표가 여전히 강하다면, 중앙은행은 더 높은 정책금리 수준에 도달하길 원할 것임.
If inflation starts rising again, and if the job data keep coming in hot, then the Fed may need to do more than is currently expected.
If inflation starts rising again, and if the job data keep coming in hot, then the Fed may need to do more than is currently expected.
Key takeaways: 먼저 시장은 초기에 파월이 상당히 온건하다 판단하며 상승했지만, 이후 지표에 따라 더 높은 정책금리가 필요할 수 있단 말에 상승폭을 모두 반납함. 그는 주택을 제외 한 핵심 서비스 물가가 잡히지 않는 것, 고용시장이 과열 상태인데 우려하면서 인플레이션 목표에 이르는 것이 참 어렵고, 내년에야 2% 목표치에 도달할 것으로 봄. 여전히 지표에 의존하는 정책 결정을 고수하면서 한 번의 지표보다는 3월 통화정책회의 전의 고용 및 물가 지표를 추가적으로 살피며 대응하겠다 함.
In his first speaking engagement since last week’s FOMC meeting, which came right before a stronger-than-forecast jobs report, Powell said that if the labor market data continue to come in stronger than officials expected, and inflation climbs more, the Fed may need to raise rates to higher than previously thought. Powell repeated that he’s concerned about inflation in the core services excluding the housing sector, and that the labor market remains too tight. He says that getting inflation down will likely be a difficult process, and one that isn’t necessarily smooth. While there should be a “significant” decline in inflation this year, it’ll likely go into next year to get it down to the Fed’s 2% target, he said. The interview with David Rubenstein didn’t yield much new from the Fed chair. Some had thought he might speak more aggressively about the employment report, but he seemed to stick to his talking points that the Fed will stay data-dependent. And policymakers will have another month of jobs data, as well as inflation readings, when they next meet in March. US stocks hit session highs during the interview, reacting to a what was then perceived as a dovish Fed Chair. Equities then erased their gains as soon as the event ended, after Powell said that if strong labor data persists, the peak rate in the current tightening cycle may be higher.
In his first speaking engagement since last week’s FOMC meeting, which came right before a stronger-than-forecast jobs report, Powell said that if the labor market data continue to come in stronger than officials expected, and inflation climbs more, the Fed may need to raise rates to higher than previously thought. Powell repeated that he’s concerned about inflation in the core services excluding the housing sector, and that the labor market remains too tight. He says that getting inflation down will likely be a difficult process, and one that isn’t necessarily smooth. While there should be a “significant” decline in inflation this year, it’ll likely go into next year to get it down to the Fed’s 2% target, he said. The interview with David Rubenstein didn’t yield much new from the Fed chair. Some had thought he might speak more aggressively about the employment report, but he seemed to stick to his talking points that the Fed will stay data-dependent. And policymakers will have another month of jobs data, as well as inflation readings, when they next meet in March. US stocks hit session highs during the interview, reacting to a what was then perceived as a dovish Fed Chair. Equities then erased their gains as soon as the event ended, after Powell said that if strong labor data persists, the peak rate in the current tightening cycle may be higher.
Bottom-line: 중국 지수가 경제 재개방 기대로 타 주가지수를 큰 폭으로 상회한 상승을 보인 뒤 숨을 고르고 있음. 이런 상승에 기여한 외국인 투자자가 최근 순매도 중이지만, 내용을 자세히 들여다보면 실망할 것은 아님. 신년 이후 단기 매매 펀드 자금은 유출 중이나 장기 투자 성격의 펀드 자금은 꾸준히 유입 중이기 때문임. 대다수 중국 투자자들은 제조업과 서비스업 지표 개선과 더불어 신용 활동까지 증가하며 경제를 성장시킬 것으로 보고 있기에 최근 추세가 하락으로 반전할 것으로 보진 않음. 다만, 경제 회복을 확인할 수 있는 고빈도 데이터들을 조금 더 살피길 원할 뿐임.
China’s reopening rally may be losing some momentum, but some investors believe shares will continue to go up after a short-term pullback. Major equity gauges have slipped since last week after world-beating gains, but few see the market headed for a reversal. The economy’s recovery has been clear, with key indicators for both manufacturing and services jumping and credit data expected to underscore the trend. “We might be on track for longer periods of horizontal moves in between gains,” said Zhao Yuanyuan, a fund manager at Shenzhen Qianhai JianHong Times Asset Management Co. “A lot of the cheer is reflected in the price,” but drivers including the domestic economic rebound is intact, Zhao said. Foreigners have turned net sellers of Chinese stocks following a record monthly purchase in January. While some may read that as negative, a closer look by Industrial Securities Co. suggests less gloom. The data show that while short-term funds have been selling since the Lunar New Year holidays, long-term investors have been steadily boosting holdings — albeit at a slowing pace. “Though we are not worried about a change in market direction, we do want to further watch the pace of the recovery through high-frequency figures,” said Xiong Lin, research director at Shanghai Ruiyi Asset Management Co.
China’s reopening rally may be losing some momentum, but some investors believe shares will continue to go up after a short-term pullback. Major equity gauges have slipped since last week after world-beating gains, but few see the market headed for a reversal. The economy’s recovery has been clear, with key indicators for both manufacturing and services jumping and credit data expected to underscore the trend. “We might be on track for longer periods of horizontal moves in between gains,” said Zhao Yuanyuan, a fund manager at Shenzhen Qianhai JianHong Times Asset Management Co. “A lot of the cheer is reflected in the price,” but drivers including the domestic economic rebound is intact, Zhao said. Foreigners have turned net sellers of Chinese stocks following a record monthly purchase in January. While some may read that as negative, a closer look by Industrial Securities Co. suggests less gloom. The data show that while short-term funds have been selling since the Lunar New Year holidays, long-term investors have been steadily boosting holdings — albeit at a slowing pace. “Though we are not worried about a change in market direction, we do want to further watch the pace of the recovery through high-frequency figures,” said Xiong Lin, research director at Shanghai Ruiyi Asset Management Co.