Powell: asked about his biggest worry about inflation, says that we’re just at the start of the process of disinflation. Supply chains are improving. Disinflation is expected in housing — in the second half of 2023. The biggest concern is when will disinflation come in core services prices, excluding housing.
Powell: We are not trying to hide out decisions from the public. We want to be transparent. We are not looking to surprise markets.
Powell: Reduced immigration was a factor leading to worker shortages during the pandemic. But immigration is now on the rise again, potentially helping with labor market tightness.
Bottom-line: 물가가 다시 상승하고, 고용 지표가 여전히 강하다면, 중앙은행은 더 높은 정책금리 수준에 도달하길 원할 것임.
If inflation starts rising again, and if the job data keep coming in hot, then the Fed may need to do more than is currently expected.
If inflation starts rising again, and if the job data keep coming in hot, then the Fed may need to do more than is currently expected.
Key takeaways: 먼저 시장은 초기에 파월이 상당히 온건하다 판단하며 상승했지만, 이후 지표에 따라 더 높은 정책금리가 필요할 수 있단 말에 상승폭을 모두 반납함. 그는 주택을 제외 한 핵심 서비스 물가가 잡히지 않는 것, 고용시장이 과열 상태인데 우려하면서 인플레이션 목표에 이르는 것이 참 어렵고, 내년에야 2% 목표치에 도달할 것으로 봄. 여전히 지표에 의존하는 정책 결정을 고수하면서 한 번의 지표보다는 3월 통화정책회의 전의 고용 및 물가 지표를 추가적으로 살피며 대응하겠다 함.
In his first speaking engagement since last week’s FOMC meeting, which came right before a stronger-than-forecast jobs report, Powell said that if the labor market data continue to come in stronger than officials expected, and inflation climbs more, the Fed may need to raise rates to higher than previously thought. Powell repeated that he’s concerned about inflation in the core services excluding the housing sector, and that the labor market remains too tight. He says that getting inflation down will likely be a difficult process, and one that isn’t necessarily smooth. While there should be a “significant” decline in inflation this year, it’ll likely go into next year to get it down to the Fed’s 2% target, he said. The interview with David Rubenstein didn’t yield much new from the Fed chair. Some had thought he might speak more aggressively about the employment report, but he seemed to stick to his talking points that the Fed will stay data-dependent. And policymakers will have another month of jobs data, as well as inflation readings, when they next meet in March. US stocks hit session highs during the interview, reacting to a what was then perceived as a dovish Fed Chair. Equities then erased their gains as soon as the event ended, after Powell said that if strong labor data persists, the peak rate in the current tightening cycle may be higher.
In his first speaking engagement since last week’s FOMC meeting, which came right before a stronger-than-forecast jobs report, Powell said that if the labor market data continue to come in stronger than officials expected, and inflation climbs more, the Fed may need to raise rates to higher than previously thought. Powell repeated that he’s concerned about inflation in the core services excluding the housing sector, and that the labor market remains too tight. He says that getting inflation down will likely be a difficult process, and one that isn’t necessarily smooth. While there should be a “significant” decline in inflation this year, it’ll likely go into next year to get it down to the Fed’s 2% target, he said. The interview with David Rubenstein didn’t yield much new from the Fed chair. Some had thought he might speak more aggressively about the employment report, but he seemed to stick to his talking points that the Fed will stay data-dependent. And policymakers will have another month of jobs data, as well as inflation readings, when they next meet in March. US stocks hit session highs during the interview, reacting to a what was then perceived as a dovish Fed Chair. Equities then erased their gains as soon as the event ended, after Powell said that if strong labor data persists, the peak rate in the current tightening cycle may be higher.
Bottom-line: 중국 지수가 경제 재개방 기대로 타 주가지수를 큰 폭으로 상회한 상승을 보인 뒤 숨을 고르고 있음. 이런 상승에 기여한 외국인 투자자가 최근 순매도 중이지만, 내용을 자세히 들여다보면 실망할 것은 아님. 신년 이후 단기 매매 펀드 자금은 유출 중이나 장기 투자 성격의 펀드 자금은 꾸준히 유입 중이기 때문임. 대다수 중국 투자자들은 제조업과 서비스업 지표 개선과 더불어 신용 활동까지 증가하며 경제를 성장시킬 것으로 보고 있기에 최근 추세가 하락으로 반전할 것으로 보진 않음. 다만, 경제 회복을 확인할 수 있는 고빈도 데이터들을 조금 더 살피길 원할 뿐임.
China’s reopening rally may be losing some momentum, but some investors believe shares will continue to go up after a short-term pullback. Major equity gauges have slipped since last week after world-beating gains, but few see the market headed for a reversal. The economy’s recovery has been clear, with key indicators for both manufacturing and services jumping and credit data expected to underscore the trend. “We might be on track for longer periods of horizontal moves in between gains,” said Zhao Yuanyuan, a fund manager at Shenzhen Qianhai JianHong Times Asset Management Co. “A lot of the cheer is reflected in the price,” but drivers including the domestic economic rebound is intact, Zhao said. Foreigners have turned net sellers of Chinese stocks following a record monthly purchase in January. While some may read that as negative, a closer look by Industrial Securities Co. suggests less gloom. The data show that while short-term funds have been selling since the Lunar New Year holidays, long-term investors have been steadily boosting holdings — albeit at a slowing pace. “Though we are not worried about a change in market direction, we do want to further watch the pace of the recovery through high-frequency figures,” said Xiong Lin, research director at Shanghai Ruiyi Asset Management Co.
China’s reopening rally may be losing some momentum, but some investors believe shares will continue to go up after a short-term pullback. Major equity gauges have slipped since last week after world-beating gains, but few see the market headed for a reversal. The economy’s recovery has been clear, with key indicators for both manufacturing and services jumping and credit data expected to underscore the trend. “We might be on track for longer periods of horizontal moves in between gains,” said Zhao Yuanyuan, a fund manager at Shenzhen Qianhai JianHong Times Asset Management Co. “A lot of the cheer is reflected in the price,” but drivers including the domestic economic rebound is intact, Zhao said. Foreigners have turned net sellers of Chinese stocks following a record monthly purchase in January. While some may read that as negative, a closer look by Industrial Securities Co. suggests less gloom. The data show that while short-term funds have been selling since the Lunar New Year holidays, long-term investors have been steadily boosting holdings — albeit at a slowing pace. “Though we are not worried about a change in market direction, we do want to further watch the pace of the recovery through high-frequency figures,” said Xiong Lin, research director at Shanghai Ruiyi Asset Management Co.
Bottom-line: 3,000억 달러에 달하는 주식시장 약세에 베팅했던 자금이 모두 회수되면서 펀드들의 주식 노출도는 10년 평균에 수렴했음. 또한 중앙은행이 금리인상을 시작한 작년 2분기 이후 처음으로 주식에 대한 비중축소가 중립으로 전환 된 것임. 대부분의 주식비중 확대는 알고리즘 펀드가 주도했고, 재량적 펀드(펀드 매니저)의 경우 여전히 경계심을 가지고 있어 보임. 그럼에도 불구, 인간의 본성인 긍정에 대한 취사선택을 떠올리게 하는 개념이 등장했음. 물가가 하락 추세에 접어들었다는 제롬 파월의 발언에 대한 기대감을 다른 중앙은행 인사들이 연이어 눌렀지만, 투자자들은 경기가 경착륙 내지 연착륙이 아니라 아예 지상으로 착륙하지 않을 것(No-Landing)이란 희망을 향유하려고 함.
Money managers have cut $300 billion of bearish bets and are now positioned more in line with historic norms — robbing the market of pent-up demand just as the Federal Reserve warns its inflation-fighting battle is far from over. The shift in positioning has taken a broad array of investors from underweight to holding equities closer to the average of the past decade. Investors are now the closest to neutral positioning than they have been since the second quarter of last year, when the Fed began ramping up interest rates, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG. That sentiment shift, as the S&P 500 surged from its bear-market low in mid-October, suggests stocks may have trouble pushing higher unless the funds turn outright bullish. So far — aside from some systematic funds that have been forced to raise exposure — most managers remain wary of another market selloff given hawkish central bankers risk stoking a recession. A chorus of monetary officials warned Wednesday that they are far from done with policy tightening, a day after Chair Jerome Powell again cheered signs of disinflation. “Equity investors have an innate ability to pick and choose strands from the macro narrative which support their Pavlovian instincts,” said James Athey, investment director at Edinburgh-based abrdn. “We are now entertaining the notion of ‘no landing’ a somewhat pie-in-the-sky belief in the ability for the economy to disinflate without negative growth consequences.”. The risk-on climate that’s propelling the most speculative assets and putting the Nasdaq 100 on the verge of a bull market has proved hard to resist in recent weeks. Powell did little to spoil the good mood this week, though stocks slumped Wednesday.
Money managers have cut $300 billion of bearish bets and are now positioned more in line with historic norms — robbing the market of pent-up demand just as the Federal Reserve warns its inflation-fighting battle is far from over. The shift in positioning has taken a broad array of investors from underweight to holding equities closer to the average of the past decade. Investors are now the closest to neutral positioning than they have been since the second quarter of last year, when the Fed began ramping up interest rates, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG. That sentiment shift, as the S&P 500 surged from its bear-market low in mid-October, suggests stocks may have trouble pushing higher unless the funds turn outright bullish. So far — aside from some systematic funds that have been forced to raise exposure — most managers remain wary of another market selloff given hawkish central bankers risk stoking a recession. A chorus of monetary officials warned Wednesday that they are far from done with policy tightening, a day after Chair Jerome Powell again cheered signs of disinflation. “Equity investors have an innate ability to pick and choose strands from the macro narrative which support their Pavlovian instincts,” said James Athey, investment director at Edinburgh-based abrdn. “We are now entertaining the notion of ‘no landing’ a somewhat pie-in-the-sky belief in the ability for the economy to disinflate without negative growth consequences.”. The risk-on climate that’s propelling the most speculative assets and putting the Nasdaq 100 on the verge of a bull market has proved hard to resist in recent weeks. Powell did little to spoil the good mood this week, though stocks slumped Wednesday.
Bottom-line: 지난 주 고용지표가 비둘기들 사이에 떨어진 고양이 역할을 하면서 스왑 시장에서 중앙은행의 최종 정책금리가 5.15%로 높아진 상태며, 심지어 6%의 최종 정책금리 베팅도 발생함. 이와 대조적으로 장기 채권에 대한 관심과 매수세는 고용지표와 중앙은행 인사들의 발언에도 여전한 강세를 보이는 채권 가격 및 입찰에서 드러나고 있음. 이는 지난 10년 간 볼 수 없었던 장기 채권의 금리 수준이 비록 중앙은행이 향후 금리를 몇 차례 더 인상하더라도 투자에 적기로 판단하고 있기 때문임. 특히 최근 채권시장 자금 흐름 속 연금 자금 유입은 일본이 채권 매수자로 돌아오고 있단 첫 신호일 수 있음.
Investors are piling into the longer end of the Treasuries market even in the face of increased anticipation that the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish enough to substantially hike its benchmark interest rate in the coming months. The 10-year Treasuries yield held at 3.61% on Thursday after the strongest rally in a week sent it down six basis points on Wednesday. That contrasts with a surge for swap rates, which now see the Fed’s tightening cycle peaking at about 5.15%, a full quarter-point higher than was seen last week. There’s also been a surge in bets the Fed could raise its rate to as high as 6%. Even as a parade of Fed officials highlighted their willingness to hike rates and keep them elevated, Investors bought a record 95% of Wednesday’s auction of 10-year notes. That underscores the allure of yields above 3.5% — a level unseen for more than a decade until it was breached in 2022 — even amid expectations for higher Fed rates. “US payrolls last week threw the cat amongst the pigeons, forcing a reset in positioning and thinking on the terminal Fed funds rate,” said Prashant Newnaha, a strategist at TD Securities Inc. “That said, the long end continues to draw strong buying interest. Demand from pension accounts is probably the main driver of this, as well as the first signs that Japanese investors are returning as buyers of foreign fixed income, as weekly fund flows data suggest.”.
Investors are piling into the longer end of the Treasuries market even in the face of increased anticipation that the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish enough to substantially hike its benchmark interest rate in the coming months. The 10-year Treasuries yield held at 3.61% on Thursday after the strongest rally in a week sent it down six basis points on Wednesday. That contrasts with a surge for swap rates, which now see the Fed’s tightening cycle peaking at about 5.15%, a full quarter-point higher than was seen last week. There’s also been a surge in bets the Fed could raise its rate to as high as 6%. Even as a parade of Fed officials highlighted their willingness to hike rates and keep them elevated, Investors bought a record 95% of Wednesday’s auction of 10-year notes. That underscores the allure of yields above 3.5% — a level unseen for more than a decade until it was breached in 2022 — even amid expectations for higher Fed rates. “US payrolls last week threw the cat amongst the pigeons, forcing a reset in positioning and thinking on the terminal Fed funds rate,” said Prashant Newnaha, a strategist at TD Securities Inc. “That said, the long end continues to draw strong buying interest. Demand from pension accounts is probably the main driver of this, as well as the first signs that Japanese investors are returning as buyers of foreign fixed income, as weekly fund flows data suggest.”.
Implication: 디스인플레이션 기대
German inflation slowed in January to the lowest level in five months thanks to further government aid to ease the burden on households from soaring energy costs.
German inflation slowed in January to the lowest level in five months thanks to further government aid to ease the burden on households from soaring energy costs.
US equity futures nudged higher while the dollar and yields fell slightly after initial jobless claims rose for the first time in six weeks. Continuing claims also ticked up to 1.688mln from a revised 1.650mln.
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Bottom-line: 투자자들은 이제 더 이상 중앙은행과 싸우지 않으려는 듯 하며, 더 높은 최종 정책금리와 인플레이션 통제의 어려움에 동의하려는 모습임. 이 경우 현재 10년물 국채 금리가 2년물 국채 금리보다 낮은 수익률 역전 현상은 더욱 심해질 것임. 장 중 한 때 -85.8bps의 역전폭을 보이며 1980년 이후 최대를 기록했지만, -100bps의 국채 수익률 역전도 눈 앞에 놓일 가능성이 있음. 특히 만기가 긴 채권에 대한 강한 수요가 이를 더 빨리 도달시킬 수도 있을 것임.
Investors are buying into the new Fed narrative. That should keep the US yield curve on the path to more inversion. Disinflation was introduced as a new buzzword last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And it was reiterated this week too. He also told investors that while prices have cooled, the road to 2% inflation is set to be bumpy and long. And finally, investors are no longer fighting the Fed’s terminal rate view, or further curve inversion. The spread between 2s10s has narrowed to -85.8bps today, the tightest since the 1980s after breaching the December tight at -85.2bps. The market likes round figures and -100bps is likely in the cards. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets think so too. Today’s course of events are likely to lend to more flattening. Weekly jobless claims remained below 200,000 today -- confirming the labor market is strong. Plus, Japan continues to buy foreign bonds in 2023. And buying from the region is getting bigger. After buying ~750 billion yen of foreign bonds in January, they purchased a net of ~1130 billion yen already in February, according to Ministry of Finance data released Wednesday. That could easily spark strong investor demand for today’s $21 billion 30-year Treasury offering at 1pm NYT.
Investors are buying into the new Fed narrative. That should keep the US yield curve on the path to more inversion. Disinflation was introduced as a new buzzword last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And it was reiterated this week too. He also told investors that while prices have cooled, the road to 2% inflation is set to be bumpy and long. And finally, investors are no longer fighting the Fed’s terminal rate view, or further curve inversion. The spread between 2s10s has narrowed to -85.8bps today, the tightest since the 1980s after breaching the December tight at -85.2bps. The market likes round figures and -100bps is likely in the cards. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets think so too. Today’s course of events are likely to lend to more flattening. Weekly jobless claims remained below 200,000 today -- confirming the labor market is strong. Plus, Japan continues to buy foreign bonds in 2023. And buying from the region is getting bigger. After buying ~750 billion yen of foreign bonds in January, they purchased a net of ~1130 billion yen already in February, according to Ministry of Finance data released Wednesday. That could easily spark strong investor demand for today’s $21 billion 30-year Treasury offering at 1pm NYT.