Implication: 디스인플레이션 기대
German inflation slowed in January to the lowest level in five months thanks to further government aid to ease the burden on households from soaring energy costs.
German inflation slowed in January to the lowest level in five months thanks to further government aid to ease the burden on households from soaring energy costs.
US equity futures nudged higher while the dollar and yields fell slightly after initial jobless claims rose for the first time in six weeks. Continuing claims also ticked up to 1.688mln from a revised 1.650mln.
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Bottom-line: 투자자들은 이제 더 이상 중앙은행과 싸우지 않으려는 듯 하며, 더 높은 최종 정책금리와 인플레이션 통제의 어려움에 동의하려는 모습임. 이 경우 현재 10년물 국채 금리가 2년물 국채 금리보다 낮은 수익률 역전 현상은 더욱 심해질 것임. 장 중 한 때 -85.8bps의 역전폭을 보이며 1980년 이후 최대를 기록했지만, -100bps의 국채 수익률 역전도 눈 앞에 놓일 가능성이 있음. 특히 만기가 긴 채권에 대한 강한 수요가 이를 더 빨리 도달시킬 수도 있을 것임.
Investors are buying into the new Fed narrative. That should keep the US yield curve on the path to more inversion. Disinflation was introduced as a new buzzword last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And it was reiterated this week too. He also told investors that while prices have cooled, the road to 2% inflation is set to be bumpy and long. And finally, investors are no longer fighting the Fed’s terminal rate view, or further curve inversion. The spread between 2s10s has narrowed to -85.8bps today, the tightest since the 1980s after breaching the December tight at -85.2bps. The market likes round figures and -100bps is likely in the cards. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets think so too. Today’s course of events are likely to lend to more flattening. Weekly jobless claims remained below 200,000 today -- confirming the labor market is strong. Plus, Japan continues to buy foreign bonds in 2023. And buying from the region is getting bigger. After buying ~750 billion yen of foreign bonds in January, they purchased a net of ~1130 billion yen already in February, according to Ministry of Finance data released Wednesday. That could easily spark strong investor demand for today’s $21 billion 30-year Treasury offering at 1pm NYT.
Investors are buying into the new Fed narrative. That should keep the US yield curve on the path to more inversion. Disinflation was introduced as a new buzzword last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And it was reiterated this week too. He also told investors that while prices have cooled, the road to 2% inflation is set to be bumpy and long. And finally, investors are no longer fighting the Fed’s terminal rate view, or further curve inversion. The spread between 2s10s has narrowed to -85.8bps today, the tightest since the 1980s after breaching the December tight at -85.2bps. The market likes round figures and -100bps is likely in the cards. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets think so too. Today’s course of events are likely to lend to more flattening. Weekly jobless claims remained below 200,000 today -- confirming the labor market is strong. Plus, Japan continues to buy foreign bonds in 2023. And buying from the region is getting bigger. After buying ~750 billion yen of foreign bonds in January, they purchased a net of ~1130 billion yen already in February, according to Ministry of Finance data released Wednesday. That could easily spark strong investor demand for today’s $21 billion 30-year Treasury offering at 1pm NYT.
The Treasury market is worried. The two- to 10-year inverted yield curve widened to the largest margin since the early 1980s, in a sign of rising concern over the impact of more Fed hikes. Stocks dropped, with the S&P 500 wiping out a rally of almost 1%.
Bottom-line: 전세계 주식지수가 2012년 이후 가장 훌륭한 연 초 이후 수익률을 써가는 중에 개인 투자자들이 상승을 뒤늦게 쫓기 시작한 것으로 보임. 심리 조사에 의하면 개인 투자자들의 주식에 대한 심리가 작년 4월 이후 처음으로 강세 전환했음. 이 심리 지표의 전환은 동일한 시점의 주가보다 심리 변화 이후의 주가와 연관이 더 있어 보이며, 때때로 시장의 거래가 지나치게 쏠려있다는 경고 신호로 작동했음.
Retail investors are chasing the rally. That may not be a good thing. The recent advance in equities, which saw the MSCI All Country World Index rise more than 7% for the best start to a year since 2012 has caught the imagination of the retail crowd who, for the first time since April, turned bullish. That’s based on the bull-bear spread from the weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey, reported earlier by Bailey Lipschultz and Bill Austin. The bigger question of whether that will be enough to sustain the momentum of the advance remains unanswered, however. In fact, there is a stronger correlation between the sentiment indicator and what happens in market the same week, than with what happens in market the next week. And a visual inspection of the chart suggests that extreme confidence in either direction is likely to mark a turning point, not a continuation. As such, this might be a more of a warning sign than a reason to follow the crowd.
Retail investors are chasing the rally. That may not be a good thing. The recent advance in equities, which saw the MSCI All Country World Index rise more than 7% for the best start to a year since 2012 has caught the imagination of the retail crowd who, for the first time since April, turned bullish. That’s based on the bull-bear spread from the weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey, reported earlier by Bailey Lipschultz and Bill Austin. The bigger question of whether that will be enough to sustain the momentum of the advance remains unanswered, however. In fact, there is a stronger correlation between the sentiment indicator and what happens in market the same week, than with what happens in market the next week. And a visual inspection of the chart suggests that extreme confidence in either direction is likely to mark a turning point, not a continuation. As such, this might be a more of a warning sign than a reason to follow the crowd.
Market reaction: Resilient Consumers Help Lift Stocks.
The S&P 500 erased earlier losses as investors assessed robust UMich confidence data, signaling the consumer is in good shape, which would support spending. Rallies for snack maker PepsiCo and payments company PayPal after better-than-expected results are also in line with the view consumers are resilient.
The S&P 500 erased earlier losses as investors assessed robust UMich confidence data, signaling the consumer is in good shape, which would support spending. Rallies for snack maker PepsiCo and payments company PayPal after better-than-expected results are also in line with the view consumers are resilient.
Docent: 골드만삭스가 미국 주가지수의 올 한해 기대수익률이 거의 0%에 가까울 것으로 전망(Our forecast for a flat S&P 500 index return)하는 것은 주식 투자자에게 어떤 의미일지, 주식의 수익률을 결정하는 거시적 요소와 개별 기업 요소에 대한 도슨트임.
4) 이런 환경이라면, 주식을 선별할 때 수익률의 진폭이 결정적 요소 중 하나가 될 것임. 다만, 좀 더 깊이있게 들여다보면, i) 개별 주식의 주가가 대외 거시적 환경보다 해당 회사 자체 요인(Company specific)에 의해 발생할 수록 좋고, ii) 포트폴리오를 구축했을 때도 전반적으로 개별 기업의 성과(산업의 성장, 기업의 매출 또는 이익률, 또는 기술 등)에 따라 변동성이 발생해야 할 것임. 수익률의 진폭이 ‘기회’를 말하지만 ‘방향’을 말해주진 않기 때문임.
Bottom-line: 화요일 발표 될 물가지표에 앞서 많은 회사채 발행이 월요일에 몰릴 것으로 보임. 예상보다 높은 수준의 물가지표가 발표 될 경우 그간 물가와 정책금리에 대해 가지던 낙관론을 재평가할 것이기 때문에 발행자들 입장에서는 이런 변동성을 피해 미리 자금을 조달하고자 하는 것임.
A number of deals are expected to flood the market Monday as issuers try to get ahead of any potential volatility that could follow Tuesday’s CPI report. Preliminary estimates for the investment-grade primary market call for $25 billion in new issue volume during the week, with the bulk of deals to come on Monday. Junk bonds may extend a five-day losing streak on rate concerns. Last week, 11 borrowers sold $7 billion of new bonds in just four sessions. It was the busiest week since November 2021. Five leveraged loan deals have commitments due this week, including a $1.04 billion term loan for insurance coverages company Amynta. Faster-than-expected inflation might snap the issuance rally seen across asset classes in the credit market. Investors are optimistic about decelerating interest-rate hikes and inflation, so a sudden high print would cause the market to have to reassess.
A number of deals are expected to flood the market Monday as issuers try to get ahead of any potential volatility that could follow Tuesday’s CPI report. Preliminary estimates for the investment-grade primary market call for $25 billion in new issue volume during the week, with the bulk of deals to come on Monday. Junk bonds may extend a five-day losing streak on rate concerns. Last week, 11 borrowers sold $7 billion of new bonds in just four sessions. It was the busiest week since November 2021. Five leveraged loan deals have commitments due this week, including a $1.04 billion term loan for insurance coverages company Amynta. Faster-than-expected inflation might snap the issuance rally seen across asset classes in the credit market. Investors are optimistic about decelerating interest-rate hikes and inflation, so a sudden high print would cause the market to have to reassess.
Market Reaction: 모든 것을 사자는 올 한 해 화두가 공격 받고 있으며, 미국 물가 지표가 최후의 일격이 될까 우려하고 있음. 🥶
Early 2023’s theme of “buy everything” is under attack, and US inflation numbers could deliver the coup de grace.
Early 2023’s theme of “buy everything” is under attack, and US inflation numbers could deliver the coup de grace.
But: 한편으로는 이코노미스트들이 이제는 물가를 지속해서 과대평가하는 국면에 돌입한 것은 아닌지 생각해 볼 필요도 있음. 🙊
However, trading is rarely so simple. Two of the last three CPI figures have been downside surprises. This may mean economists are now entering into another long phase of over-estimating inflation. After all, there’s a 2:1 bias to misses and then beats over both pre-Covid and Covid periods respectively. If recent downside surprises are an indication, 2023 really could be different.
However, trading is rarely so simple. Two of the last three CPI figures have been downside surprises. This may mean economists are now entering into another long phase of over-estimating inflation. After all, there’s a 2:1 bias to misses and then beats over both pre-Covid and Covid periods respectively. If recent downside surprises are an indication, 2023 really could be different.