Bottom-line: 전세계 주식지수가 2012년 이후 가장 훌륭한 연 초 이후 수익률을 써가는 중에 개인 투자자들이 상승을 뒤늦게 쫓기 시작한 것으로 보임. 심리 조사에 의하면 개인 투자자들의 주식에 대한 심리가 작년 4월 이후 처음으로 강세 전환했음. 이 심리 지표의 전환은 동일한 시점의 주가보다 심리 변화 이후의 주가와 연관이 더 있어 보이며, 때때로 시장의 거래가 지나치게 쏠려있다는 경고 신호로 작동했음.
Retail investors are chasing the rally. That may not be a good thing. The recent advance in equities, which saw the MSCI All Country World Index rise more than 7% for the best start to a year since 2012 has caught the imagination of the retail crowd who, for the first time since April, turned bullish. That’s based on the bull-bear spread from the weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey, reported earlier by Bailey Lipschultz and Bill Austin. The bigger question of whether that will be enough to sustain the momentum of the advance remains unanswered, however. In fact, there is a stronger correlation between the sentiment indicator and what happens in market the same week, than with what happens in market the next week. And a visual inspection of the chart suggests that extreme confidence in either direction is likely to mark a turning point, not a continuation. As such, this might be a more of a warning sign than a reason to follow the crowd.
Retail investors are chasing the rally. That may not be a good thing. The recent advance in equities, which saw the MSCI All Country World Index rise more than 7% for the best start to a year since 2012 has caught the imagination of the retail crowd who, for the first time since April, turned bullish. That’s based on the bull-bear spread from the weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey, reported earlier by Bailey Lipschultz and Bill Austin. The bigger question of whether that will be enough to sustain the momentum of the advance remains unanswered, however. In fact, there is a stronger correlation between the sentiment indicator and what happens in market the same week, than with what happens in market the next week. And a visual inspection of the chart suggests that extreme confidence in either direction is likely to mark a turning point, not a continuation. As such, this might be a more of a warning sign than a reason to follow the crowd.
Market reaction: Resilient Consumers Help Lift Stocks.
The S&P 500 erased earlier losses as investors assessed robust UMich confidence data, signaling the consumer is in good shape, which would support spending. Rallies for snack maker PepsiCo and payments company PayPal after better-than-expected results are also in line with the view consumers are resilient.
The S&P 500 erased earlier losses as investors assessed robust UMich confidence data, signaling the consumer is in good shape, which would support spending. Rallies for snack maker PepsiCo and payments company PayPal after better-than-expected results are also in line with the view consumers are resilient.
Docent: 골드만삭스가 미국 주가지수의 올 한해 기대수익률이 거의 0%에 가까울 것으로 전망(Our forecast for a flat S&P 500 index return)하는 것은 주식 투자자에게 어떤 의미일지, 주식의 수익률을 결정하는 거시적 요소와 개별 기업 요소에 대한 도슨트임.
4) 이런 환경이라면, 주식을 선별할 때 수익률의 진폭이 결정적 요소 중 하나가 될 것임. 다만, 좀 더 깊이있게 들여다보면, i) 개별 주식의 주가가 대외 거시적 환경보다 해당 회사 자체 요인(Company specific)에 의해 발생할 수록 좋고, ii) 포트폴리오를 구축했을 때도 전반적으로 개별 기업의 성과(산업의 성장, 기업의 매출 또는 이익률, 또는 기술 등)에 따라 변동성이 발생해야 할 것임. 수익률의 진폭이 ‘기회’를 말하지만 ‘방향’을 말해주진 않기 때문임.
Bottom-line: 화요일 발표 될 물가지표에 앞서 많은 회사채 발행이 월요일에 몰릴 것으로 보임. 예상보다 높은 수준의 물가지표가 발표 될 경우 그간 물가와 정책금리에 대해 가지던 낙관론을 재평가할 것이기 때문에 발행자들 입장에서는 이런 변동성을 피해 미리 자금을 조달하고자 하는 것임.
A number of deals are expected to flood the market Monday as issuers try to get ahead of any potential volatility that could follow Tuesday’s CPI report. Preliminary estimates for the investment-grade primary market call for $25 billion in new issue volume during the week, with the bulk of deals to come on Monday. Junk bonds may extend a five-day losing streak on rate concerns. Last week, 11 borrowers sold $7 billion of new bonds in just four sessions. It was the busiest week since November 2021. Five leveraged loan deals have commitments due this week, including a $1.04 billion term loan for insurance coverages company Amynta. Faster-than-expected inflation might snap the issuance rally seen across asset classes in the credit market. Investors are optimistic about decelerating interest-rate hikes and inflation, so a sudden high print would cause the market to have to reassess.
A number of deals are expected to flood the market Monday as issuers try to get ahead of any potential volatility that could follow Tuesday’s CPI report. Preliminary estimates for the investment-grade primary market call for $25 billion in new issue volume during the week, with the bulk of deals to come on Monday. Junk bonds may extend a five-day losing streak on rate concerns. Last week, 11 borrowers sold $7 billion of new bonds in just four sessions. It was the busiest week since November 2021. Five leveraged loan deals have commitments due this week, including a $1.04 billion term loan for insurance coverages company Amynta. Faster-than-expected inflation might snap the issuance rally seen across asset classes in the credit market. Investors are optimistic about decelerating interest-rate hikes and inflation, so a sudden high print would cause the market to have to reassess.
Market Reaction: 모든 것을 사자는 올 한 해 화두가 공격 받고 있으며, 미국 물가 지표가 최후의 일격이 될까 우려하고 있음. 🥶
Early 2023’s theme of “buy everything” is under attack, and US inflation numbers could deliver the coup de grace.
Early 2023’s theme of “buy everything” is under attack, and US inflation numbers could deliver the coup de grace.
But: 한편으로는 이코노미스트들이 이제는 물가를 지속해서 과대평가하는 국면에 돌입한 것은 아닌지 생각해 볼 필요도 있음. 🙊
However, trading is rarely so simple. Two of the last three CPI figures have been downside surprises. This may mean economists are now entering into another long phase of over-estimating inflation. After all, there’s a 2:1 bias to misses and then beats over both pre-Covid and Covid periods respectively. If recent downside surprises are an indication, 2023 really could be different.
However, trading is rarely so simple. Two of the last three CPI figures have been downside surprises. This may mean economists are now entering into another long phase of over-estimating inflation. After all, there’s a 2:1 bias to misses and then beats over both pre-Covid and Covid periods respectively. If recent downside surprises are an indication, 2023 really could be different.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 S&P 500 지수에 속한 기업들의 실적 발표를 통해 네 가지 핵심 주제를 선정했으며, 이는 i) 경제성장, ii) 이익률, iii) 노동시장, iv) 인플레이션 감축 법안임. 최근 예상보다 좋은 경제지표와 달리 기업인들은 긴축적 통화정책 상황에서 경기를 비관하고 있으며, 기업 운영에서 경기침체를 대비하고 있다고 함. 기업 이익률은 매출 감소와 투입원가 상승에 따라 부진하며, 특이 원가 상승은 한 해 내도록 경영진의 고충이었음. 정리해고의 경우 바이러스 대확산 시기 폭발적으로 인력을 고용했던 기술업에 집중되어 있고, 수요 둔화에 대응한다기 보다는 주주들의 비용절감 요구에 대응하는 성격이 컸음. 인플레이션 감축 법안은 유효세율이 가장 낮은 기업들은 부정적이지만, 에너지와 건강관리 기업은 가장 수혜를 입을 것이라 함.
In our quarterly Beige Book, we gather anecdotal evidence of fundamental and thematic trends from the earnings trannoscripts of S&P 500 companies. This quarter, four themes dominated earnings calls: (1) economic growth; (2) profit margins; (3) the labor market; and (4) the Inflation Reduction Act. Commentary from 4Q earnings calls has focused on realized and prospective economic growth, both domestically and globally. A subset of commentary from S&P 500 firms expressing concerns over the trajectory of U.S. economic growth is at odds with recent robust economic data and receding recession risk. Pessimistic commentary from managements typically underscored the drag on economic growth from tightening financial conditions and stressed that they were adjusting their operations to prepare for a potential recession. Some companies also indicated that a U.S. recession, albeit a mild one, is their base case scenario for the coming year. Both investors and companies are focused on the trajectory for corporate profit margins and their recent compression due to slowing sales growth and elevated input costs. Margin pressures from elevated input costs have been top of mind for managements for well over a year, and the share of companies reporting rising materials costs according to a NABE survey appears to have peaked in the middle of last year when 76% of respondents reported rising costs. Corporate layoff announcements have prompted questions over the extent to which these layoffs could be a sign of a broader slowdown in the labor market. Our economists recently noted that many companies announcing layoffs are in the technology sector, hired aggressively during the pandemic, and in some cases appear to be responding to investor demand to cut costs through layoffs rather than signaling a weaker demand picture more broadly. Companies have begun to discuss the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on their businesses. The act, which was passed in late 2022, contains energy and climate spending incentives alongside health insurance subsidies, drug pricing controls, funding for IRS enforcement, the addition of a 15% minimum tax on corporate book income, and a 1% excise tax on buybacks. The most likely beneficiaries of the legislation will be companies within Energy and Healthcare, while companies with the lowest effective tax rates will likely be negatively affected. Company commentary reflected optimism over potential future tailwinds to sales and earnings from the legislation, in particular from Energy and Healthcare companies.
In our quarterly Beige Book, we gather anecdotal evidence of fundamental and thematic trends from the earnings trannoscripts of S&P 500 companies. This quarter, four themes dominated earnings calls: (1) economic growth; (2) profit margins; (3) the labor market; and (4) the Inflation Reduction Act. Commentary from 4Q earnings calls has focused on realized and prospective economic growth, both domestically and globally. A subset of commentary from S&P 500 firms expressing concerns over the trajectory of U.S. economic growth is at odds with recent robust economic data and receding recession risk. Pessimistic commentary from managements typically underscored the drag on economic growth from tightening financial conditions and stressed that they were adjusting their operations to prepare for a potential recession. Some companies also indicated that a U.S. recession, albeit a mild one, is their base case scenario for the coming year. Both investors and companies are focused on the trajectory for corporate profit margins and their recent compression due to slowing sales growth and elevated input costs. Margin pressures from elevated input costs have been top of mind for managements for well over a year, and the share of companies reporting rising materials costs according to a NABE survey appears to have peaked in the middle of last year when 76% of respondents reported rising costs. Corporate layoff announcements have prompted questions over the extent to which these layoffs could be a sign of a broader slowdown in the labor market. Our economists recently noted that many companies announcing layoffs are in the technology sector, hired aggressively during the pandemic, and in some cases appear to be responding to investor demand to cut costs through layoffs rather than signaling a weaker demand picture more broadly. Companies have begun to discuss the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on their businesses. The act, which was passed in late 2022, contains energy and climate spending incentives alongside health insurance subsidies, drug pricing controls, funding for IRS enforcement, the addition of a 15% minimum tax on corporate book income, and a 1% excise tax on buybacks. The most likely beneficiaries of the legislation will be companies within Energy and Healthcare, while companies with the lowest effective tax rates will likely be negatively affected. Company commentary reflected optimism over potential future tailwinds to sales and earnings from the legislation, in particular from Energy and Healthcare companies.
Bottom-line: 인플레이션에 대한 시장 참여자들의 대다수 의견은 중앙은행이 물가 압력 완화에 따른 정책금리 인상 중단이었음. 그러나 물가지표 산정의 집계 기간 변경 후 수정 발표 된 결과는 작년 하반기 물가가 이전보다 높았고, 이로 인해 많은 이코노미스트들이 전망치를 수정했음.
The story on inflation up until last week was a positive one as price pressures eased across a range of indicators amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign. That narrative completely shifted with the release of CPI revisions Friday. That data showed inflation has higher at the end of last year than previously thought. Deutsche Bank economists called it “rewriting history”, and it led to a flurry of economists’ revisions heading into this week.
The story on inflation up until last week was a positive one as price pressures eased across a range of indicators amid the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign. That narrative completely shifted with the release of CPI revisions Friday. That data showed inflation has higher at the end of last year than previously thought. Deutsche Bank economists called it “rewriting history”, and it led to a flurry of economists’ revisions heading into this week.
Bottom-line: 고용지표 발표 이후 중앙은행이 정책금리를 보다 더 올려야 한다는 시장의 중지가 모아진 상태에 있으며, 금일 발표되는 물가지표가 그 방향을 더 강하게 만들 수도 있음.
Market expectations for the Fed’s tightening path have risen considerably since the start of the month largely thanks to a far better than expected jobs report on Feb. 3. With risk seemingly skewed slightly to the upside for Tuesday’s release, any print above consensus would likely reinforce the growing view that the Fed has more work to do before they can rest easy, and could push the terminal rate higher and eventual easing further out.
Market expectations for the Fed’s tightening path have risen considerably since the start of the month largely thanks to a far better than expected jobs report on Feb. 3. With risk seemingly skewed slightly to the upside for Tuesday’s release, any print above consensus would likely reinforce the growing view that the Fed has more work to do before they can rest easy, and could push the terminal rate higher and eventual easing further out.