But: 추정치보다 높은 물가지표였지만, 2021년 10월 이후 가장 낮은 전년 대비 증가율이며, 백악관 또한 마찬가지로 추세적으로 물가가 하락 중이라고 강조할 것임.
Even though the 6.4% year-on-year CPI increase was higher than the average estimate of economists, it’s still the lowest reading since October 2021 and a tick down from the prior month. The White House is likely to point to the dip in the year-on-year inflation rates. The 6.4% headline CPI gain is the smallest since October 2021. And January marks the seventh straight drop in that rate.
Even though the 6.4% year-on-year CPI increase was higher than the average estimate of economists, it’s still the lowest reading since October 2021 and a tick down from the prior month. The White House is likely to point to the dip in the year-on-year inflation rates. The 6.4% headline CPI gain is the smallest since October 2021. And January marks the seventh straight drop in that rate.
Bottom-line: 시장 참여자들은 이 정도 숫자에도 흔쾌히 받아들이는 이유는 무엇일까? 그것은 물가지표 산정 방식에 대한 수정 이후 OER에 대한 가중치가 증가했고, 이 영역이 물가 지표를 조금 더 위로 올릴 수 있다고 생각했기 때문임.
“Looks like OER is a driver of the slight headline beat .7 vs .8 last. Recall, OER weight increased in the latest revision. That is why people thought upside risk to the number. Used auto weight decreased. Since private market rent data has collapsed, we know that OER is moving even lower over time. That is why market is taking the inline number OK.”
“Looks like OER is a driver of the slight headline beat .7 vs .8 last. Recall, OER weight increased in the latest revision. That is why people thought upside risk to the number. Used auto weight decreased. Since private market rent data has collapsed, we know that OER is moving even lower over time. That is why market is taking the inline number OK.”
Bottom-line: 모건스탠리의 경우 3월과 5월 통화정책회의에서 25bp씩 금리인상을 추가로 할 것으로 전망을 변경했지만, 5월 이후 노동시장 둔화 및 물가 상승률 둔화로 긴축적인 통화정책이 중단, 12월에는 첫 금리인하를 시행할 것으로 보고 있음.
Morgan Stanley’s US economists, led by Ellen Zentner, say that, for the Fed, there isn’t any immediate implication here. Zentner and her team in the past couple of weeks added two rate hikes to their outlook, for March and May. We expect the Fed tightening path to be largely set through the May FOMC, with a 25 basis-point hike at each of the upcoming meetings. Beyond May, however, a slowing labor market and more moderate inflation outcomes should set the stage for a stop in the tightening cycle and an eventual first rate cut in December.
Morgan Stanley’s US economists, led by Ellen Zentner, say that, for the Fed, there isn’t any immediate implication here. Zentner and her team in the past couple of weeks added two rate hikes to their outlook, for March and May. We expect the Fed tightening path to be largely set through the May FOMC, with a 25 basis-point hike at each of the upcoming meetings. Beyond May, however, a slowing labor market and more moderate inflation outcomes should set the stage for a stop in the tightening cycle and an eventual first rate cut in December.
Bottom-line: 이제 시장의 중추 질문은 인플레이션 완화 과정 중 일시적 상승인지, 혹은 중앙은행이 곤두서야 할 신호인지 여부임. 다만, 파월 의장은 인플레이션을 통제하는 경로가 순탄하진 않을 것이라 이미 발언했고, 이번 물가지표는 그것을 투영하는 것일 수 있음.
The next question for economists is whether this was a blip in an otherwise positive picture of easing inflation, or a sign of sustained price pressures that will require additional Fed attention. Powell has signaled that the path for inflation from here won’t be a smooth one, and this report lines up with that view.
The next question for economists is whether this was a blip in an otherwise positive picture of easing inflation, or a sign of sustained price pressures that will require additional Fed attention. Powell has signaled that the path for inflation from here won’t be a smooth one, and this report lines up with that view.
Market Reaction: 그런데, 과연 주식시장 참여자들은 이 물가지표를 신경쓰고 있었을까? 그렇다면 어제의 상승과 물가지표 발표 전 지수 선물의 상승은 어떻게 설명할 것인가? 주식시장 참여자들은 사실 이 지표를 크게 상관하지 않는 것일지도 모름.
As expected, core revised up slightly. Cue the narrative from markets that inflation is higher (month-over-month) and from politicians that it’s lower (year-over-year). Stock market doesn’t care. If traders were really worried about CPI, we wouldn’t have gotten a big rally yesterday and a lift in the futures pre-number. The in-line number was a mere speed bump in the stocks’ advance. Certainly the rally in bonds gives a further excuse for stocks to rally.
As expected, core revised up slightly. Cue the narrative from markets that inflation is higher (month-over-month) and from politicians that it’s lower (year-over-year). Stock market doesn’t care. If traders were really worried about CPI, we wouldn’t have gotten a big rally yesterday and a lift in the futures pre-number. The in-line number was a mere speed bump in the stocks’ advance. Certainly the rally in bonds gives a further excuse for stocks to rally.
Bottom-line: 물가지표에서 1/3의 비중을 차지하는 주거 항목이 주식 투자자들의 디스인플레이션 주장에 불안감을 가중시켰음. 블룸버그 독자 중 한명인 크리스토퍼 말로니는 현재의 물가지표에서 주거 항목을 다음과 같이 변경해서 만든 새로운 계산법을 제시했는데, OER 대신 계절 조정되지 않은 케이스실러 전국 주택 가격 지수를 사용하고, 임대 지표 대신 질로우의 임대 가격을 사용하는 것임. 이 방식으로 계산할 경우, 2020년 후반부에 이미 물가 문제가 심각해짐을 알 수 있었음. 흥미로운 점은, 이렇게 지표를 대체할 경우 물가지표는 주택가격이 지나치게 과열될 때 포착하지 못하는 문제와 더불어, 주택가격이 식을 때 또한 뒤늦게 포착한다는 것임. 즉, 현재의 물가지표는 주택 가격에 대해 과열 전에도 과열 후에도 양쪽 모두 후행함.
Earlier, MLIV wrote that climbing shelter costs — which are the biggest CPI services component and make up about a third of the overall index — might add to unease about the disinflation narrative, hurting risk assets like equities. Reader Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist for BOK Financial Capital Markets, reached out to highlight the flawed nature of housing measures in the CPI, arguing that they leave monetary policy at risk. Maloney has constructed a hypothetical CPI model, using the non-seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index in place of OER, and Zillow rental price data in place of the CPI’s rent gage. He says that had housing been calculated in this manner, the CPI would have given a warning signal in late 2020 that inflation was already a problem. The chart only goes through November, the latest release of the Case-Shiller data. Plus, it still uses the slightly lower weightings previously given to rent and OER in CPI. The chart also shows that during home price manias, CPI lags actual home prices badly, according to Maloney. And, once a housing mania dies down, CPI fails to quickly capture housing price disinflation, making CPI a lagging indicator in both directions, Maloney tells me. That adds to other sobering thoughts about costly rents and expensive home prices.
Earlier, MLIV wrote that climbing shelter costs — which are the biggest CPI services component and make up about a third of the overall index — might add to unease about the disinflation narrative, hurting risk assets like equities. Reader Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist for BOK Financial Capital Markets, reached out to highlight the flawed nature of housing measures in the CPI, arguing that they leave monetary policy at risk. Maloney has constructed a hypothetical CPI model, using the non-seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index in place of OER, and Zillow rental price data in place of the CPI’s rent gage. He says that had housing been calculated in this manner, the CPI would have given a warning signal in late 2020 that inflation was already a problem. The chart only goes through November, the latest release of the Case-Shiller data. Plus, it still uses the slightly lower weightings previously given to rent and OER in CPI. The chart also shows that during home price manias, CPI lags actual home prices badly, according to Maloney. And, once a housing mania dies down, CPI fails to quickly capture housing price disinflation, making CPI a lagging indicator in both directions, Maloney tells me. That adds to other sobering thoughts about costly rents and expensive home prices.
Bottom-line: 영국 물가가 작년 10월 41년래 최고치를 기록 한 뒤 3개월 간 하락을 연속함. 영국 중앙은행의 물가 목표치에서 한참 멀리 있는 높은 수준이지만, 인플레이션 악순환을 우려하던 정책 입안자들이 다음 금리를 결정하기 전 지켜 볼 여지를 남김. 물가 하락을 이끈 부문은 에너지, 식당, 카페였으며 주류 및 담배 물가가 상승함. 12월 상승했던 대형 운송 수단들의 가격도 하락함.
The UK’s inflation rate fell for a third month, remaining stubbornly in double digits five times above the Bank of England’s targeted level. The Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% from a year ago in January, down from 10.5% the month before and a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. Economists had expected a slight slowdown to 10.3%. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey hopes that inflation will fall sharply this year as energy prices ease and the economy tips into recession. While the BOE is concerned that a shortage of workers is pushing up wages and threatening an inflationary spiral, this month’s figures give policy makers room to wait before considering the next move on rates. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt welcomed the dip but said the government will work toward cutting inflation in half this year. The decline in the latest month was largely due to falling petrol prices along with easing price pressures in restaurants and cafes. That was partly offset by a jump in the cost of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Air and coach travel costs fell back after a steep rise in December.
The UK’s inflation rate fell for a third month, remaining stubbornly in double digits five times above the Bank of England’s targeted level. The Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% from a year ago in January, down from 10.5% the month before and a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. Economists had expected a slight slowdown to 10.3%. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey hopes that inflation will fall sharply this year as energy prices ease and the economy tips into recession. While the BOE is concerned that a shortage of workers is pushing up wages and threatening an inflationary spiral, this month’s figures give policy makers room to wait before considering the next move on rates. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt welcomed the dip but said the government will work toward cutting inflation in half this year. The decline in the latest month was largely due to falling petrol prices along with easing price pressures in restaurants and cafes. That was partly offset by a jump in the cost of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Air and coach travel costs fell back after a steep rise in December.
Bottom-line: 레이 달리오는 중국과 미국을 모두 활용할 줄 아는 곳이 두 국가 간 무역분쟁의 진정한 승자며, 단순하게 숫자로만 보면 지금까지 두 국가 간 무역분쟁에서 이기는 쪽은 중국에 가깝다고 함. 물론, 이 갈등이 군사적 충돌에 이르진 않을 것으로 봄. 오히려 레이 달리오는 내부의 문제 해결이 더 중요하다고 주장했는데, 미국의 공공기반시설, 교육, 정치 갈등, 지도자의 능력, 빈부의 격차 등 문제가 되려 미국을 쇠락하게 할 것이라 함. 물론, 대다수 전문가들의 헤지 수단처럼, 응원도 잊지 않음.
Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said China is coming out on top in the trade war with the US, though the standoff between the world’s two biggest economies likely won’t escalate into military conflict. The billionaire investor told a conference in Dubai on Wednesday that the renminbi was beginning to be used more widely for international trade and the real winners of the confrontation will be those able to tap into both the US and China. “China’s winning the trade war if you just take the numbers – the percentage of world trade and dominance,” Dalio said. Dalio, who warned late last year that the countries were “dangerously close to a military war,” said the US still appeared to be “on the brink” of conflict with China. “Brink doesn’t mean we’ll go over the brink,” he said. “Hopefully we don’t go over the brink,” he said. But for Dalio, the far greater challenge to America is from within. “A deterioration of infrastructure, education, political conflict, leadership,” alongside the opioid crisis and a growing divide between the poor and the rich, are among symptoms of decline, he said. “The primary threat is internal,” Dalio said. “Basically, be strong. If you’re strong and healthy, you’ll be domestically and internationally well-off.”
Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said China is coming out on top in the trade war with the US, though the standoff between the world’s two biggest economies likely won’t escalate into military conflict. The billionaire investor told a conference in Dubai on Wednesday that the renminbi was beginning to be used more widely for international trade and the real winners of the confrontation will be those able to tap into both the US and China. “China’s winning the trade war if you just take the numbers – the percentage of world trade and dominance,” Dalio said. Dalio, who warned late last year that the countries were “dangerously close to a military war,” said the US still appeared to be “on the brink” of conflict with China. “Brink doesn’t mean we’ll go over the brink,” he said. “Hopefully we don’t go over the brink,” he said. But for Dalio, the far greater challenge to America is from within. “A deterioration of infrastructure, education, political conflict, leadership,” alongside the opioid crisis and a growing divide between the poor and the rich, are among symptoms of decline, he said. “The primary threat is internal,” Dalio said. “Basically, be strong. If you’re strong and healthy, you’ll be domestically and internationally well-off.”
• Things to Know
After glossing over the Federal Reserve’s messaging on its terminal rate, traders now reckon that the monetary authority will not only get there — but possibly go farther.
중앙은행이 정책금리의 종착점을 제시했을 때 채권 시장 거래자들은 그곳에 도달하지 못할 것으로 베팅했었다. 하지만 지금은, 중앙은행이 제시한 종착점 뿐만 아니라 더 높은 곳을 향해 베팅하고 있다.
After glossing over the Federal Reserve’s messaging on its terminal rate, traders now reckon that the monetary authority will not only get there — but possibly go farther.
중앙은행이 정책금리의 종착점을 제시했을 때 채권 시장 거래자들은 그곳에 도달하지 못할 것으로 베팅했었다. 하지만 지금은, 중앙은행이 제시한 종착점 뿐만 아니라 더 높은 곳을 향해 베팅하고 있다.
Market Reaction: 2년래 가장 큰 폭의 소매판매 증가에 따라 중앙은행이 금리인상을 지속해야 할 당위성을 준다고 해석함.
US retail sales rose in January by the most in nearly two years, signaling robust consumer demand that could bolster the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates in the face of persistent inflation.
US retail sales rose in January by the most in nearly two years, signaling robust consumer demand that could bolster the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates in the face of persistent inflation.