Bottom-line: 물가지표에서 1/3의 비중을 차지하는 주거 항목이 주식 투자자들의 디스인플레이션 주장에 불안감을 가중시켰음. 블룸버그 독자 중 한명인 크리스토퍼 말로니는 현재의 물가지표에서 주거 항목을 다음과 같이 변경해서 만든 새로운 계산법을 제시했는데, OER 대신 계절 조정되지 않은 케이스실러 전국 주택 가격 지수를 사용하고, 임대 지표 대신 질로우의 임대 가격을 사용하는 것임. 이 방식으로 계산할 경우, 2020년 후반부에 이미 물가 문제가 심각해짐을 알 수 있었음. 흥미로운 점은, 이렇게 지표를 대체할 경우 물가지표는 주택가격이 지나치게 과열될 때 포착하지 못하는 문제와 더불어, 주택가격이 식을 때 또한 뒤늦게 포착한다는 것임. 즉, 현재의 물가지표는 주택 가격에 대해 과열 전에도 과열 후에도 양쪽 모두 후행함.
Earlier, MLIV wrote that climbing shelter costs — which are the biggest CPI services component and make up about a third of the overall index — might add to unease about the disinflation narrative, hurting risk assets like equities. Reader Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist for BOK Financial Capital Markets, reached out to highlight the flawed nature of housing measures in the CPI, arguing that they leave monetary policy at risk. Maloney has constructed a hypothetical CPI model, using the non-seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index in place of OER, and Zillow rental price data in place of the CPI’s rent gage. He says that had housing been calculated in this manner, the CPI would have given a warning signal in late 2020 that inflation was already a problem. The chart only goes through November, the latest release of the Case-Shiller data. Plus, it still uses the slightly lower weightings previously given to rent and OER in CPI. The chart also shows that during home price manias, CPI lags actual home prices badly, according to Maloney. And, once a housing mania dies down, CPI fails to quickly capture housing price disinflation, making CPI a lagging indicator in both directions, Maloney tells me. That adds to other sobering thoughts about costly rents and expensive home prices.
Earlier, MLIV wrote that climbing shelter costs — which are the biggest CPI services component and make up about a third of the overall index — might add to unease about the disinflation narrative, hurting risk assets like equities. Reader Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist for BOK Financial Capital Markets, reached out to highlight the flawed nature of housing measures in the CPI, arguing that they leave monetary policy at risk. Maloney has constructed a hypothetical CPI model, using the non-seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index in place of OER, and Zillow rental price data in place of the CPI’s rent gage. He says that had housing been calculated in this manner, the CPI would have given a warning signal in late 2020 that inflation was already a problem. The chart only goes through November, the latest release of the Case-Shiller data. Plus, it still uses the slightly lower weightings previously given to rent and OER in CPI. The chart also shows that during home price manias, CPI lags actual home prices badly, according to Maloney. And, once a housing mania dies down, CPI fails to quickly capture housing price disinflation, making CPI a lagging indicator in both directions, Maloney tells me. That adds to other sobering thoughts about costly rents and expensive home prices.
Bottom-line: 영국 물가가 작년 10월 41년래 최고치를 기록 한 뒤 3개월 간 하락을 연속함. 영국 중앙은행의 물가 목표치에서 한참 멀리 있는 높은 수준이지만, 인플레이션 악순환을 우려하던 정책 입안자들이 다음 금리를 결정하기 전 지켜 볼 여지를 남김. 물가 하락을 이끈 부문은 에너지, 식당, 카페였으며 주류 및 담배 물가가 상승함. 12월 상승했던 대형 운송 수단들의 가격도 하락함.
The UK’s inflation rate fell for a third month, remaining stubbornly in double digits five times above the Bank of England’s targeted level. The Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% from a year ago in January, down from 10.5% the month before and a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. Economists had expected a slight slowdown to 10.3%. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey hopes that inflation will fall sharply this year as energy prices ease and the economy tips into recession. While the BOE is concerned that a shortage of workers is pushing up wages and threatening an inflationary spiral, this month’s figures give policy makers room to wait before considering the next move on rates. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt welcomed the dip but said the government will work toward cutting inflation in half this year. The decline in the latest month was largely due to falling petrol prices along with easing price pressures in restaurants and cafes. That was partly offset by a jump in the cost of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Air and coach travel costs fell back after a steep rise in December.
The UK’s inflation rate fell for a third month, remaining stubbornly in double digits five times above the Bank of England’s targeted level. The Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% from a year ago in January, down from 10.5% the month before and a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. Economists had expected a slight slowdown to 10.3%. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey hopes that inflation will fall sharply this year as energy prices ease and the economy tips into recession. While the BOE is concerned that a shortage of workers is pushing up wages and threatening an inflationary spiral, this month’s figures give policy makers room to wait before considering the next move on rates. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt welcomed the dip but said the government will work toward cutting inflation in half this year. The decline in the latest month was largely due to falling petrol prices along with easing price pressures in restaurants and cafes. That was partly offset by a jump in the cost of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Air and coach travel costs fell back after a steep rise in December.
Bottom-line: 레이 달리오는 중국과 미국을 모두 활용할 줄 아는 곳이 두 국가 간 무역분쟁의 진정한 승자며, 단순하게 숫자로만 보면 지금까지 두 국가 간 무역분쟁에서 이기는 쪽은 중국에 가깝다고 함. 물론, 이 갈등이 군사적 충돌에 이르진 않을 것으로 봄. 오히려 레이 달리오는 내부의 문제 해결이 더 중요하다고 주장했는데, 미국의 공공기반시설, 교육, 정치 갈등, 지도자의 능력, 빈부의 격차 등 문제가 되려 미국을 쇠락하게 할 것이라 함. 물론, 대다수 전문가들의 헤지 수단처럼, 응원도 잊지 않음.
Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said China is coming out on top in the trade war with the US, though the standoff between the world’s two biggest economies likely won’t escalate into military conflict. The billionaire investor told a conference in Dubai on Wednesday that the renminbi was beginning to be used more widely for international trade and the real winners of the confrontation will be those able to tap into both the US and China. “China’s winning the trade war if you just take the numbers – the percentage of world trade and dominance,” Dalio said. Dalio, who warned late last year that the countries were “dangerously close to a military war,” said the US still appeared to be “on the brink” of conflict with China. “Brink doesn’t mean we’ll go over the brink,” he said. “Hopefully we don’t go over the brink,” he said. But for Dalio, the far greater challenge to America is from within. “A deterioration of infrastructure, education, political conflict, leadership,” alongside the opioid crisis and a growing divide between the poor and the rich, are among symptoms of decline, he said. “The primary threat is internal,” Dalio said. “Basically, be strong. If you’re strong and healthy, you’ll be domestically and internationally well-off.”
Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said China is coming out on top in the trade war with the US, though the standoff between the world’s two biggest economies likely won’t escalate into military conflict. The billionaire investor told a conference in Dubai on Wednesday that the renminbi was beginning to be used more widely for international trade and the real winners of the confrontation will be those able to tap into both the US and China. “China’s winning the trade war if you just take the numbers – the percentage of world trade and dominance,” Dalio said. Dalio, who warned late last year that the countries were “dangerously close to a military war,” said the US still appeared to be “on the brink” of conflict with China. “Brink doesn’t mean we’ll go over the brink,” he said. “Hopefully we don’t go over the brink,” he said. But for Dalio, the far greater challenge to America is from within. “A deterioration of infrastructure, education, political conflict, leadership,” alongside the opioid crisis and a growing divide between the poor and the rich, are among symptoms of decline, he said. “The primary threat is internal,” Dalio said. “Basically, be strong. If you’re strong and healthy, you’ll be domestically and internationally well-off.”
• Things to Know
After glossing over the Federal Reserve’s messaging on its terminal rate, traders now reckon that the monetary authority will not only get there — but possibly go farther.
중앙은행이 정책금리의 종착점을 제시했을 때 채권 시장 거래자들은 그곳에 도달하지 못할 것으로 베팅했었다. 하지만 지금은, 중앙은행이 제시한 종착점 뿐만 아니라 더 높은 곳을 향해 베팅하고 있다.
After glossing over the Federal Reserve’s messaging on its terminal rate, traders now reckon that the monetary authority will not only get there — but possibly go farther.
중앙은행이 정책금리의 종착점을 제시했을 때 채권 시장 거래자들은 그곳에 도달하지 못할 것으로 베팅했었다. 하지만 지금은, 중앙은행이 제시한 종착점 뿐만 아니라 더 높은 곳을 향해 베팅하고 있다.
Market Reaction: 2년래 가장 큰 폭의 소매판매 증가에 따라 중앙은행이 금리인상을 지속해야 할 당위성을 준다고 해석함.
US retail sales rose in January by the most in nearly two years, signaling robust consumer demand that could bolster the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates in the face of persistent inflation.
US retail sales rose in January by the most in nearly two years, signaling robust consumer demand that could bolster the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates in the face of persistent inflation.
Bottom-line: 소매판매 지표가 발표 된 뒤 국채 매도가 쏟아졌음. 2주 전 대비 50bp 이상 상승한 미국 국채 2년물 금리는 4.72%를 앞두고 있으며, 이는 채권 거래자들이 중앙은행의 정책금리 점도표에 항복하기 직전 수준이라는 의미임. 또한 2년물 국채금리의 상승으로 인해 10년 국채금리보다 2년 국채금리가 90bp 이상 높은 역전현상을 잠시 보였었음.
After Fed officials floated the idea of an even higher terminal rate, and retail sales came in hotter than expected, Treasuries have sold off. The two-year Treasury yield has leapt past 4.68% this morning after beginning the month of February more than 50 basis points lower two weeks ago. This has increased the 2s10s inversion to a cycle high greater than 90 basis points. 4.72% is still the level to watch for complete market capitulation to the Fed.
After Fed officials floated the idea of an even higher terminal rate, and retail sales came in hotter than expected, Treasuries have sold off. The two-year Treasury yield has leapt past 4.68% this morning after beginning the month of February more than 50 basis points lower two weeks ago. This has increased the 2s10s inversion to a cycle high greater than 90 basis points. 4.72% is still the level to watch for complete market capitulation to the Fed.
Bottom-line: 최근 발표 된 경제지표들은 예상을 크게 뛰어넘었던 고용창출과 궤를 같이하며, 금리인상 주기 속에서도 성장이 훼손되지 않을 수 있단 기대를 줌. 좋은 결과의 경제 지표에 주식은 중앙은행이 금리를 더 올려야 한단 우려로 하락했지만, 이내 상승 마감했음. 특히 중앙은행이 금리를 올리면서 인플레이션을 둔화시키는 동시에 경제성장률을 지상에 착륙하지 않게 관리할 수 있단 믿음이 국채 수익률 곡선의 역전(10년물 국채 금리가 2년물 국채 금리보다 -92bp 역전)을 다시 가파른 기울기로 회복 시키는 동안에는, 주식 또한 상승을 이어갈 것임.
While inflation on Tuesday was mostly in line with estimates, Wednesday’s data dump contained some big surprises, and confirmed the picture painted in the January jobs report of a US economy that’s doing far better than you’d expect at this stage of a hiking cycle. Stocks tumbled initially, but recovered throughout the day, closing in the green. The idea that there might not be any landing, soft or otherwise, is gaining strength. With the end of the Fed’s cycle in sight, any market narrative can only be trusted until the next chunk of data comes out. But as long as the numbers appear to support the idea that inflation is slowing and the Fed has managed, somehow, not to break the economy, then we can expect stocks to continue their rally, while the yield curve looks for excuses to re-steepen. The market’s initial reaction to the better-than-forecast retail sales data was that it would enable the Fed to raise rates further and was therefore a bad thing. The S&P 500 fell as much as 0.8% shortly after the open, and the 2s10s yield curve fell to nearly -92 bps before rebounding. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which was testing 4% just over two weeks ago, reached 4.7% before dropping back. Stocks then recovered amid hope that growth might survive the hiking cycle.
While inflation on Tuesday was mostly in line with estimates, Wednesday’s data dump contained some big surprises, and confirmed the picture painted in the January jobs report of a US economy that’s doing far better than you’d expect at this stage of a hiking cycle. Stocks tumbled initially, but recovered throughout the day, closing in the green. The idea that there might not be any landing, soft or otherwise, is gaining strength. With the end of the Fed’s cycle in sight, any market narrative can only be trusted until the next chunk of data comes out. But as long as the numbers appear to support the idea that inflation is slowing and the Fed has managed, somehow, not to break the economy, then we can expect stocks to continue their rally, while the yield curve looks for excuses to re-steepen. The market’s initial reaction to the better-than-forecast retail sales data was that it would enable the Fed to raise rates further and was therefore a bad thing. The S&P 500 fell as much as 0.8% shortly after the open, and the 2s10s yield curve fell to nearly -92 bps before rebounding. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which was testing 4% just over two weeks ago, reached 4.7% before dropping back. Stocks then recovered amid hope that growth might survive the hiking cycle.