Bottom-line: 영국 물가가 작년 10월 41년래 최고치를 기록 한 뒤 3개월 간 하락을 연속함. 영국 중앙은행의 물가 목표치에서 한참 멀리 있는 높은 수준이지만, 인플레이션 악순환을 우려하던 정책 입안자들이 다음 금리를 결정하기 전 지켜 볼 여지를 남김. 물가 하락을 이끈 부문은 에너지, 식당, 카페였으며 주류 및 담배 물가가 상승함. 12월 상승했던 대형 운송 수단들의 가격도 하락함.
The UK’s inflation rate fell for a third month, remaining stubbornly in double digits five times above the Bank of England’s targeted level. The Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% from a year ago in January, down from 10.5% the month before and a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. Economists had expected a slight slowdown to 10.3%. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey hopes that inflation will fall sharply this year as energy prices ease and the economy tips into recession. While the BOE is concerned that a shortage of workers is pushing up wages and threatening an inflationary spiral, this month’s figures give policy makers room to wait before considering the next move on rates. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt welcomed the dip but said the government will work toward cutting inflation in half this year. The decline in the latest month was largely due to falling petrol prices along with easing price pressures in restaurants and cafes. That was partly offset by a jump in the cost of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Air and coach travel costs fell back after a steep rise in December.
The UK’s inflation rate fell for a third month, remaining stubbornly in double digits five times above the Bank of England’s targeted level. The Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% from a year ago in January, down from 10.5% the month before and a 41-year high of 11.1% in October. Economists had expected a slight slowdown to 10.3%. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey hopes that inflation will fall sharply this year as energy prices ease and the economy tips into recession. While the BOE is concerned that a shortage of workers is pushing up wages and threatening an inflationary spiral, this month’s figures give policy makers room to wait before considering the next move on rates. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt welcomed the dip but said the government will work toward cutting inflation in half this year. The decline in the latest month was largely due to falling petrol prices along with easing price pressures in restaurants and cafes. That was partly offset by a jump in the cost of alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Air and coach travel costs fell back after a steep rise in December.
Bottom-line: 레이 달리오는 중국과 미국을 모두 활용할 줄 아는 곳이 두 국가 간 무역분쟁의 진정한 승자며, 단순하게 숫자로만 보면 지금까지 두 국가 간 무역분쟁에서 이기는 쪽은 중국에 가깝다고 함. 물론, 이 갈등이 군사적 충돌에 이르진 않을 것으로 봄. 오히려 레이 달리오는 내부의 문제 해결이 더 중요하다고 주장했는데, 미국의 공공기반시설, 교육, 정치 갈등, 지도자의 능력, 빈부의 격차 등 문제가 되려 미국을 쇠락하게 할 것이라 함. 물론, 대다수 전문가들의 헤지 수단처럼, 응원도 잊지 않음.
Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said China is coming out on top in the trade war with the US, though the standoff between the world’s two biggest economies likely won’t escalate into military conflict. The billionaire investor told a conference in Dubai on Wednesday that the renminbi was beginning to be used more widely for international trade and the real winners of the confrontation will be those able to tap into both the US and China. “China’s winning the trade war if you just take the numbers – the percentage of world trade and dominance,” Dalio said. Dalio, who warned late last year that the countries were “dangerously close to a military war,” said the US still appeared to be “on the brink” of conflict with China. “Brink doesn’t mean we’ll go over the brink,” he said. “Hopefully we don’t go over the brink,” he said. But for Dalio, the far greater challenge to America is from within. “A deterioration of infrastructure, education, political conflict, leadership,” alongside the opioid crisis and a growing divide between the poor and the rich, are among symptoms of decline, he said. “The primary threat is internal,” Dalio said. “Basically, be strong. If you’re strong and healthy, you’ll be domestically and internationally well-off.”
Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said China is coming out on top in the trade war with the US, though the standoff between the world’s two biggest economies likely won’t escalate into military conflict. The billionaire investor told a conference in Dubai on Wednesday that the renminbi was beginning to be used more widely for international trade and the real winners of the confrontation will be those able to tap into both the US and China. “China’s winning the trade war if you just take the numbers – the percentage of world trade and dominance,” Dalio said. Dalio, who warned late last year that the countries were “dangerously close to a military war,” said the US still appeared to be “on the brink” of conflict with China. “Brink doesn’t mean we’ll go over the brink,” he said. “Hopefully we don’t go over the brink,” he said. But for Dalio, the far greater challenge to America is from within. “A deterioration of infrastructure, education, political conflict, leadership,” alongside the opioid crisis and a growing divide between the poor and the rich, are among symptoms of decline, he said. “The primary threat is internal,” Dalio said. “Basically, be strong. If you’re strong and healthy, you’ll be domestically and internationally well-off.”
• Things to Know
After glossing over the Federal Reserve’s messaging on its terminal rate, traders now reckon that the monetary authority will not only get there — but possibly go farther.
중앙은행이 정책금리의 종착점을 제시했을 때 채권 시장 거래자들은 그곳에 도달하지 못할 것으로 베팅했었다. 하지만 지금은, 중앙은행이 제시한 종착점 뿐만 아니라 더 높은 곳을 향해 베팅하고 있다.
After glossing over the Federal Reserve’s messaging on its terminal rate, traders now reckon that the monetary authority will not only get there — but possibly go farther.
중앙은행이 정책금리의 종착점을 제시했을 때 채권 시장 거래자들은 그곳에 도달하지 못할 것으로 베팅했었다. 하지만 지금은, 중앙은행이 제시한 종착점 뿐만 아니라 더 높은 곳을 향해 베팅하고 있다.
Market Reaction: 2년래 가장 큰 폭의 소매판매 증가에 따라 중앙은행이 금리인상을 지속해야 할 당위성을 준다고 해석함.
US retail sales rose in January by the most in nearly two years, signaling robust consumer demand that could bolster the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates in the face of persistent inflation.
US retail sales rose in January by the most in nearly two years, signaling robust consumer demand that could bolster the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates in the face of persistent inflation.
Bottom-line: 소매판매 지표가 발표 된 뒤 국채 매도가 쏟아졌음. 2주 전 대비 50bp 이상 상승한 미국 국채 2년물 금리는 4.72%를 앞두고 있으며, 이는 채권 거래자들이 중앙은행의 정책금리 점도표에 항복하기 직전 수준이라는 의미임. 또한 2년물 국채금리의 상승으로 인해 10년 국채금리보다 2년 국채금리가 90bp 이상 높은 역전현상을 잠시 보였었음.
After Fed officials floated the idea of an even higher terminal rate, and retail sales came in hotter than expected, Treasuries have sold off. The two-year Treasury yield has leapt past 4.68% this morning after beginning the month of February more than 50 basis points lower two weeks ago. This has increased the 2s10s inversion to a cycle high greater than 90 basis points. 4.72% is still the level to watch for complete market capitulation to the Fed.
After Fed officials floated the idea of an even higher terminal rate, and retail sales came in hotter than expected, Treasuries have sold off. The two-year Treasury yield has leapt past 4.68% this morning after beginning the month of February more than 50 basis points lower two weeks ago. This has increased the 2s10s inversion to a cycle high greater than 90 basis points. 4.72% is still the level to watch for complete market capitulation to the Fed.
Bottom-line: 최근 발표 된 경제지표들은 예상을 크게 뛰어넘었던 고용창출과 궤를 같이하며, 금리인상 주기 속에서도 성장이 훼손되지 않을 수 있단 기대를 줌. 좋은 결과의 경제 지표에 주식은 중앙은행이 금리를 더 올려야 한단 우려로 하락했지만, 이내 상승 마감했음. 특히 중앙은행이 금리를 올리면서 인플레이션을 둔화시키는 동시에 경제성장률을 지상에 착륙하지 않게 관리할 수 있단 믿음이 국채 수익률 곡선의 역전(10년물 국채 금리가 2년물 국채 금리보다 -92bp 역전)을 다시 가파른 기울기로 회복 시키는 동안에는, 주식 또한 상승을 이어갈 것임.
While inflation on Tuesday was mostly in line with estimates, Wednesday’s data dump contained some big surprises, and confirmed the picture painted in the January jobs report of a US economy that’s doing far better than you’d expect at this stage of a hiking cycle. Stocks tumbled initially, but recovered throughout the day, closing in the green. The idea that there might not be any landing, soft or otherwise, is gaining strength. With the end of the Fed’s cycle in sight, any market narrative can only be trusted until the next chunk of data comes out. But as long as the numbers appear to support the idea that inflation is slowing and the Fed has managed, somehow, not to break the economy, then we can expect stocks to continue their rally, while the yield curve looks for excuses to re-steepen. The market’s initial reaction to the better-than-forecast retail sales data was that it would enable the Fed to raise rates further and was therefore a bad thing. The S&P 500 fell as much as 0.8% shortly after the open, and the 2s10s yield curve fell to nearly -92 bps before rebounding. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which was testing 4% just over two weeks ago, reached 4.7% before dropping back. Stocks then recovered amid hope that growth might survive the hiking cycle.
While inflation on Tuesday was mostly in line with estimates, Wednesday’s data dump contained some big surprises, and confirmed the picture painted in the January jobs report of a US economy that’s doing far better than you’d expect at this stage of a hiking cycle. Stocks tumbled initially, but recovered throughout the day, closing in the green. The idea that there might not be any landing, soft or otherwise, is gaining strength. With the end of the Fed’s cycle in sight, any market narrative can only be trusted until the next chunk of data comes out. But as long as the numbers appear to support the idea that inflation is slowing and the Fed has managed, somehow, not to break the economy, then we can expect stocks to continue their rally, while the yield curve looks for excuses to re-steepen. The market’s initial reaction to the better-than-forecast retail sales data was that it would enable the Fed to raise rates further and was therefore a bad thing. The S&P 500 fell as much as 0.8% shortly after the open, and the 2s10s yield curve fell to nearly -92 bps before rebounding. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which was testing 4% just over two weeks ago, reached 4.7% before dropping back. Stocks then recovered amid hope that growth might survive the hiking cycle.
Bottom-line: 투자자들은 중앙은행이 무엇을 던져도 그것을 이겨 낼 정도로 강한 경제와 기업 지표를 보며 생각을 바꾼 듯 함. 기존에 투자자들은 나쁜 소식들로 인해 중앙은행이 금리인상을 중단하고 나아가 인하에 이를 것이란데 환호했지만, 이제는 2년래 최고 수준의 소매판매나, 시스코가 제시한 기존보다 높은 매출 전망처럼 긍정적 사실을 객관적으로 받아들이기 시작하며 주식시장의 동력으로 생각하는 듯 함.
It seems there’s been enough positive economic surprises this year for equities markets to decide that we are now in an environment where good news is good news. That’s a switch from some of the action around the turn of the year when bad news was welcomed as signaling a rapid pivot by the Federal Reserve away from interest-rate hikes. US retail sales in January jumped by the most in almost two years to add to the drumbeat of reports underscoring the strength of the economy. That also highlights the potential the Fed will step up its efforts to tame inflation. However, investors are looking at the data — along with robust earnings news such as Cisco Systems Inc.’s upbeat revenue forecasts — and deciding the economy may be able to ride out whatever the central bank throws at it. Investors Switch Focus to See Good News in Strong Data.
It seems there’s been enough positive economic surprises this year for equities markets to decide that we are now in an environment where good news is good news. That’s a switch from some of the action around the turn of the year when bad news was welcomed as signaling a rapid pivot by the Federal Reserve away from interest-rate hikes. US retail sales in January jumped by the most in almost two years to add to the drumbeat of reports underscoring the strength of the economy. That also highlights the potential the Fed will step up its efforts to tame inflation. However, investors are looking at the data — along with robust earnings news such as Cisco Systems Inc.’s upbeat revenue forecasts — and deciding the economy may be able to ride out whatever the central bank throws at it. Investors Switch Focus to See Good News in Strong Data.
Docent: 물가지표가 발표된 뒤 주가지수는 변동없이 마감했지만, 변동성 지수는 왜 -7%나 하락했을까? 만기가 24시간도 남지 않은 옵션의 거래는 어떤 영향을 미치고 있는지에 대한 도슨트임.