2) 공급망 병목현상이 풀리고 경제활동이 정상화 되면서 중앙은행은 인플레이션의 가장 고위험 분야를 임금(의료, 식당 등 서비스 산업)이라 지목했고, 많은 분석가들인 고용에 심각한 타격을 줘야만 임금 압력을 완화시킬 수 있을 것이라 했음. 그럼에도 불구, 최근 관심이 높아지는 가설은 임금의 역전인데, 이는 중앙은행이 원하는 경기침체 없는 인플레이션에 희망을 주는 개념임. 무디스의 분석가는 이런 높은 고용 수요에도 불구 낮은 임금 상승률 현상은 인플레이션 기대 하락에 기인한 것으로 분석함. 이로 인해 기업은 임금을 더 높여야 한다는 부담을 덜고 있음.
But there’s another scenario starting to gain attention: call it a reverse wage-price spiral. And it may be the best bet for Powell’s coveted “soft landing,” where inflation comes down without a harmful recession. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi posits the wage deceleration is due to a downshift in inflation expectations held by workers, as well as their bosses. Reduced expectations for living costs — reflecting lower gasoline prices and the anticipated impact of aggressive Fed interest-rate increases — lead to tempered wage demands. That in turn means less pressure on companies to raise prices. For the Fed, the bottom line is it may not have to force such a big downturn in the job market.
But there’s another scenario starting to gain attention: call it a reverse wage-price spiral. And it may be the best bet for Powell’s coveted “soft landing,” where inflation comes down without a harmful recession. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi posits the wage deceleration is due to a downshift in inflation expectations held by workers, as well as their bosses. Reduced expectations for living costs — reflecting lower gasoline prices and the anticipated impact of aggressive Fed interest-rate increases — lead to tempered wage demands. That in turn means less pressure on companies to raise prices. For the Fed, the bottom line is it may not have to force such a big downturn in the job market.
3) 작년 이런 높은 고용 수요에도 불구 임금은 크게 상승하지 않는 개념에 대해 소개 된 바 있지만, 대중적으로 이 개념이 수용되지는 않았음. 오히려 임금 상승은 지속적일 것으로 대다수 생각함. 제이피모건 분석가 또한 결국 경기침체를 필요로 한다고 주장했지만, 중앙은행이 주요하게 살피는 고용 지표는 3개 분기에 연속해서 상승폭이 크지 않았고, 시간당 임금도 지난 3월 5.9% 증가에서 올해 1월 4.4% 증가로 낮아졌음. 근로자들은 지난 해 전쟁과 병목현상으로 인한 물가 상승에 임금을 높일 것으로 대응했지만, 가격 상승 압력이 둔화 된 지금은 임금상승에 대한 기대를 낮추고 있기 때문임.
“A slowdown in wage growth without a significant increase in the unemployment rate puts us one step closer to a soft landing,” said Sinem Buber, lead economist at ZipRecruiter, an online job-matching site that worked with over 40 million applicants last year. The reverse wage-price spiral isn’t universally endorsed. Former chief White House economist Jason Furman has put forth an alternative hypothesis: wage-price persistence. “A recession will eventually be necessary” to get inflation back to the Fed’s comfort zone, said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Fed’s favorite measure of labor expenses, the employment cost index, has shown three straight quarters of smaller advances. A narrower measure — average hourly earnings of employees — has also slowed, with a year-on-year gain of 4.4% in January, down from 5.9% last March.
“A slowdown in wage growth without a significant increase in the unemployment rate puts us one step closer to a soft landing,” said Sinem Buber, lead economist at ZipRecruiter, an online job-matching site that worked with over 40 million applicants last year. The reverse wage-price spiral isn’t universally endorsed. Former chief White House economist Jason Furman has put forth an alternative hypothesis: wage-price persistence. “A recession will eventually be necessary” to get inflation back to the Fed’s comfort zone, said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Fed’s favorite measure of labor expenses, the employment cost index, has shown three straight quarters of smaller advances. A narrower measure — average hourly earnings of employees — has also slowed, with a year-on-year gain of 4.4% in January, down from 5.9% last March.
4) 물론, 이런 의견에 반대하는 이도 많은데, 거의 완전고용에 근접했지만 이를 초과하지 않은 노동시장 과열이라는 주장과 반대로 여전히 고용주가 직원을 유지하고 새로 채용하기 위해 임금을 인상하면서 중앙은행이 원하는 2%대의 인플레이션과 완전고용이 양립할 수 있는 수준을 넘어설 것이라는 주장임. 결국 핵심은 서비스 부문인데, 해당 부문이 임금 상승에 대한 열쇠를 쥐고 있기 때문임. 향후 우리는 어떤 이의 주장이 맞을지 지속 관찰해야 할 것임.
Zandi, who sees better-than-even odds the US will avoid a recession, doesn’t dispute the jobs market is tight. He just doesn’t think it’s as taut as some economists do. The share of the prime-age working population that’s employed is 80%, consistent with full employment but not beyond it, he said. That still leaves wages growing well above levels that are compatible with the Fed’s 2% inflation target as employers raise pay to retain and hire workers in a tight jobs market, Summers, who is a paid contributor to Bloomberg Television, and Domash wrote. “The lion’s share of today’s inflationary pressures are arising from the services sectors, and this could create challenges for the central banks,” Sheets, a former Fed official, wrote.
Zandi, who sees better-than-even odds the US will avoid a recession, doesn’t dispute the jobs market is tight. He just doesn’t think it’s as taut as some economists do. The share of the prime-age working population that’s employed is 80%, consistent with full employment but not beyond it, he said. That still leaves wages growing well above levels that are compatible with the Fed’s 2% inflation target as employers raise pay to retain and hire workers in a tight jobs market, Summers, who is a paid contributor to Bloomberg Television, and Domash wrote. “The lion’s share of today’s inflationary pressures are arising from the services sectors, and this could create challenges for the central banks,” Sheets, a former Fed official, wrote.
Bottom-line: 최근 하락세를 보인 주가에도 불구, 이것이 투자자들로 하여금 불안을 느껴 하방위험을 방어하는데 돈을 쓰도록 만들진 못하고 있음. 등가격과 외과격 풋옵션 간 프리미엄을 비교해 산출하는 지수가 작년 11월 초 이후 처음으로 연속 하락하고 있음. 작년 11월은 S&P 500 지수가 바닥을 치고 11% 상승을 했었음. 물론, 이런 사실과 별개로 통화정책회의를 3주 앞두고 이번 주 발표되는 지표들을 가격이 얼마나 반영하고 있는지, 그것이 시장을 이끌게 될 가장 핵심적 질문이 될 것임.
The recent drop in the S&P 500 has failed to unnerve investors enough to seek downside protection, at least yet. The absence of fear is showing in the recent performance of the Nations SkewDex gauge - it compares the cost of at-the-money options relative to the cost of out-of-the-money put options aimed at measuring the amount of risk market participates are willing to bear - which has fallen for the seventh straight day, a downdraft that was last seen at the start of November. Soon enough, on Nov. 3, the SPY made a bottom and rallied over 11% before a decline took hold. Economic data coming through for the rest of this week has the potential to materially swing short-term investor sentiment. ISM manufacturing, jobless claims and PMI data will be closely watched as ever while the next FOMC meeting is three weeks away. That begets the question -- how much of what is expected is already discounted? If most of it already is, what’s likely to embolden the tactical stock bear further? The answer to that question remains key.
The recent drop in the S&P 500 has failed to unnerve investors enough to seek downside protection, at least yet. The absence of fear is showing in the recent performance of the Nations SkewDex gauge - it compares the cost of at-the-money options relative to the cost of out-of-the-money put options aimed at measuring the amount of risk market participates are willing to bear - which has fallen for the seventh straight day, a downdraft that was last seen at the start of November. Soon enough, on Nov. 3, the SPY made a bottom and rallied over 11% before a decline took hold. Economic data coming through for the rest of this week has the potential to materially swing short-term investor sentiment. ISM manufacturing, jobless claims and PMI data will be closely watched as ever while the next FOMC meeting is three weeks away. That begets the question -- how much of what is expected is already discounted? If most of it already is, what’s likely to embolden the tactical stock bear further? The answer to that question remains key.
Bottom-line: 지난 세월 동안 미국 국채금리는 중앙은행의 최종정책금리에 근접하거나 이를 상회하곤 했음. 만일 5%를 훌쩍 넘는 최종정책금리가 우리 앞에 있다면, 채권 투자자들에 보다 힘든 시기가 남았다는 말임. 지난 수십년 동안 중앙은행의 통화정책 긴축 기간 이런 현상이 발생했는데, 특히 1980년대 이후 더욱 잦아졌다는 것을 알 수 있음. 때문에 경제가 지속해서 침체를 피할 경우, 단기 및 장기 채권의 금리가 더욱 높아질 수 밖에 없다는 것임.
Past precedents show Treasury yields have often spiked close to or above the Fed’s terminal rate, suggesting it could get worse before it gets better for bond holders if officials deliver on over 5% interest rates. Overlaying effective rates on Treasury yields shows that it’s been common that both two and 10-year yields have risen at or above the Fed’s effective interest rate in past tightening cycles in recent decades. This was more frequently the case after the 1980s. Paul Volcker’s shocking interest-rate hikes of that period have seen yields come close but not exceed the Fed’s rate as two back-to-back recessions roiled markets, driving investors into the safety of bonds. Based on these observations, one could make the case that both short and long-dated yields could climb a lot higher from current levels if the economy continues to avert a recession. My colleague Ven Ram makes a more articulate argument here. Economists are still seeing 60% odds of one arriving in 2023 (from 65% previously) but have been recently revising their estimates higher for 2Q and 3Q 2023 when the downturn is expected to arrive.
Past precedents show Treasury yields have often spiked close to or above the Fed’s terminal rate, suggesting it could get worse before it gets better for bond holders if officials deliver on over 5% interest rates. Overlaying effective rates on Treasury yields shows that it’s been common that both two and 10-year yields have risen at or above the Fed’s effective interest rate in past tightening cycles in recent decades. This was more frequently the case after the 1980s. Paul Volcker’s shocking interest-rate hikes of that period have seen yields come close but not exceed the Fed’s rate as two back-to-back recessions roiled markets, driving investors into the safety of bonds. Based on these observations, one could make the case that both short and long-dated yields could climb a lot higher from current levels if the economy continues to avert a recession. My colleague Ven Ram makes a more articulate argument here. Economists are still seeing 60% odds of one arriving in 2023 (from 65% previously) but have been recently revising their estimates higher for 2Q and 3Q 2023 when the downturn is expected to arrive.
five key takeaways from Tesla Inc.’s four-hour investor day Wednesday in Austin, Texas.
Docent: 채권시장으로부터 커지고 있는 경고와 반대의 주식시장 상승은 누구도 쉽게 그 답을 하기 어려운 현상임. 특히, 6개월 만기 고정수익이 주식의 수익률(주가수익비율의 역수로 계산 된 수익률)을 상회하는 마당에, 금요일 성장주 지수가 2월 초 이후 최고 상승률을 기록하며 마감하며 이런 의문은 더욱 커지고 있음.
The fixed-income market’s unblemished record of striking fear into the hearts of equity traders is in danger. With rates on two- and 10-year Treasuries up a sixth straight week, and payouts on cash at or above the earnings yield of the S&P 500, stock investors are barely registering a shrug. Benchmark US share indexes just posted their biggest runup in a month, climaxing Friday with a jump in the Nasdaq 100 that topped any since early February. Why peace is breaking out in risky assets during a week that at one point saw yields in the entire Treasury market rise above 4% is a mystery Wall Street has no easy answer for.
The fixed-income market’s unblemished record of striking fear into the hearts of equity traders is in danger. With rates on two- and 10-year Treasuries up a sixth straight week, and payouts on cash at or above the earnings yield of the S&P 500, stock investors are barely registering a shrug. Benchmark US share indexes just posted their biggest runup in a month, climaxing Friday with a jump in the Nasdaq 100 that topped any since early February. Why peace is breaking out in risky assets during a week that at one point saw yields in the entire Treasury market rise above 4% is a mystery Wall Street has no easy answer for.
1) 생각하기 쉬운 이유를 들자면, 두 가지인데, 우선 기술적으로 중요하게 여겨지는 주가지수의 200일 이동평균선을 하회했다 다시 반등한 것, 그리고 금리가 하락하지 않고 지속 높다는 것을 강력한 경기가 지속될 것으로 해석하는 것임. 만일 금리가 하락했다면, 이를 경기침체가 가까워지고 있다 생각했을 것임.
Charts may be one reason: the S&P 500 bounced sharply after falling below its 200-day average on Wednesday. Another may be that investors are interpreting elevated rates as a sign strong economic data is likely to persist, says Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance LLC. “It’s interesting to see stocks whistling past the graveyard,” Zaccarelli said. “Stock investors may be looking for yields to drop as a sign we are going to have a recession and are seeing an all-clear in the sense that rates are higher.”
Charts may be one reason: the S&P 500 bounced sharply after falling below its 200-day average on Wednesday. Another may be that investors are interpreting elevated rates as a sign strong economic data is likely to persist, says Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance LLC. “It’s interesting to see stocks whistling past the graveyard,” Zaccarelli said. “Stock investors may be looking for yields to drop as a sign we are going to have a recession and are seeing an all-clear in the sense that rates are higher.”
2) S&P 500 지수의 투자 수익률에서부터 주식과 채권의 60%/40% 배분에 따른 투자 수익률에 이르기까지 모든 것이 단기 고정수익 5%에 잠식 당하고 있지만, 무위험수익률 5%가 투자자들에게 전부는 아님. 왜냐하면, 투자자들에게는 기회비용이란 또 다른 계산이 있기 때문임. 장기간 우리는 현금을 능가하는 위험자산의 수익률을 보아왔기 때문데, 지난 1년 간 1~3개월 단기 고정수익이 2% 수익을 주고, S&P 500 지수가 -6.3% 손실을 줬다는데만 주목하지 않음. 지난 10년 간 단기 고정수익은 거의 제자리였지만, 주식에 투자한 수익률은 165%였다는 사실을 알기 때문임.
It’s happening even as money cascades out of stock-focused ETFs and into fixed-income funds, as risk-free yields reach multi-year highs. Short-dated Treasury bills are enticing investors as yields push above 5%, eclipsing the payout on everything from profits generated by S&P 500 companies to those offered by the traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. But while the trade is touted as risk free, it comes with opportunity costs. “That short rate isn’t going to be at those levels forever — it’s probably going to end up lower,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. “What we’ve seen over long periods of time is that the long-term assets outperform cash. And we have every reason to believe that’s going to be the case.” Over the past year, the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill exchange-traded fund (ticker BIL) has returned about 2%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has dropped 6.3% on a total return basis. However, over the past decade BIL is flat, while SPY soared 165% during an epic bull run.
It’s happening even as money cascades out of stock-focused ETFs and into fixed-income funds, as risk-free yields reach multi-year highs. Short-dated Treasury bills are enticing investors as yields push above 5%, eclipsing the payout on everything from profits generated by S&P 500 companies to those offered by the traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. But while the trade is touted as risk free, it comes with opportunity costs. “That short rate isn’t going to be at those levels forever — it’s probably going to end up lower,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. “What we’ve seen over long periods of time is that the long-term assets outperform cash. And we have every reason to believe that’s going to be the case.” Over the past year, the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill exchange-traded fund (ticker BIL) has returned about 2%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has dropped 6.3% on a total return basis. However, over the past decade BIL is flat, while SPY soared 165% during an epic bull run.
3) 또한 단기 자금에 투자하여 얻을 수 있는 수익에 기다림은 길게 필요하지 않지만, 주식이 가진 장기적인 잠재력은 없음. 만일 5년 이상의 투자기간을 가진 투자자라면, 수익률을 개선시키기 위해 주식을 포트폴리오에 편입할 수 밖에 없는 것임. 뿐만 아니라, 1970년대로 돌아가보면 금리는 다시 하락하고 성장률 또한 떨어졌지만, 주식은 해당 기간 다시 상승을 시작했음. 그러므로 주식에 투자하는 이유는 현재의 통화정책주기도 정점을 언젠가 통과할 것이고, 그 때가 되면 단기자금의 수익률을 주식의 투자 수익률이 훨씬 능가할 것이기 때문으로 볼 수 있음.
“There’s much less ‘opportunity cost’ than what we’re used to because it’s a place where you can get paid while you wait, but there’s not long-term price potential like in equities,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “So for people with more than a five-year time horizon, you still need equities in the portfolio to set you up for compounding returns.”. The notion that yields may be peaking also has investors preaching caution when it comes to bonds. While bets have been building in recent weeks that the Fed will ultimately need to raise rates past 5% to stamp out inflation — boosting yields across the Treasury curve — traders are pricing in an end to increases by September. Tipp hearkened back to the 1970s, when inflation was a threat to both stocks and bonds. As growth moderated and rates leveled off and then came down, equities rose — even though the economy remained weak. “There’s a good chance that that kind of cyclicality is going to make its way through the markets, and people that lock in at the short term, exit the long-term markets and go into short term are going to suffer,” he said. “Their long-term returns are not going to be as high because the cash rates will probably move lower.”
“There’s much less ‘opportunity cost’ than what we’re used to because it’s a place where you can get paid while you wait, but there’s not long-term price potential like in equities,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “So for people with more than a five-year time horizon, you still need equities in the portfolio to set you up for compounding returns.”. The notion that yields may be peaking also has investors preaching caution when it comes to bonds. While bets have been building in recent weeks that the Fed will ultimately need to raise rates past 5% to stamp out inflation — boosting yields across the Treasury curve — traders are pricing in an end to increases by September. Tipp hearkened back to the 1970s, when inflation was a threat to both stocks and bonds. As growth moderated and rates leveled off and then came down, equities rose — even though the economy remained weak. “There’s a good chance that that kind of cyclicality is going to make its way through the markets, and people that lock in at the short term, exit the long-term markets and go into short term are going to suffer,” he said. “Their long-term returns are not going to be as high because the cash rates will probably move lower.”
4) 투자자들은 단기 고정수익을 통해 만기에 대한 위험을 피할 수 있고, 신용 위험 또한 피할 수 있음. 다만, 그들은 기회비용이란 위험을 감수하는 것임. 때문에 투자자들은 어느 시점에서는 단기자금에 쌓아둔 돈을 모두 인출해 주식에 다시 넣을 준비를 하고 있을 것이며, 주식이 바닥을 만드는 신호가 나타날 때마다 그런 움직임을 보일 것임.
“I do think that we need to take advantage of the higher yields on the short-end of the yield curve, wait out this continued volatility,” David Spika, president and chief investment officer of GuideStone Capital Management, said in an interview. “And then at some point we’ll hit a bottom, and that will be a great time to re-risk, take that money out of cash, put it back in equities and you’ll benefit from that.”. “So, cash may pay you 4.5-5% today, but in one year that may not be the case, in two years that may not be the case,” he said in an interview.“. The challenge in allocating to cash is that while you’re not taking any duration risk and you’re not taking any credit risk, the risk that you’re taking is the opportunity cost or the uncertainty risk associated with what that cash will pay you in the future relative to the yield you can lock in over the longer-term by moving out further on the yield curve.”
“I do think that we need to take advantage of the higher yields on the short-end of the yield curve, wait out this continued volatility,” David Spika, president and chief investment officer of GuideStone Capital Management, said in an interview. “And then at some point we’ll hit a bottom, and that will be a great time to re-risk, take that money out of cash, put it back in equities and you’ll benefit from that.”. “So, cash may pay you 4.5-5% today, but in one year that may not be the case, in two years that may not be the case,” he said in an interview.“. The challenge in allocating to cash is that while you’re not taking any duration risk and you’re not taking any credit risk, the risk that you’re taking is the opportunity cost or the uncertainty risk associated with what that cash will pay you in the future relative to the yield you can lock in over the longer-term by moving out further on the yield curve.”
Bottom-line: 중국은 올해 경제성장률을 약 5%로 목표하고, 재정적자폭을 국내총생산의 3%로 전년 2.8%보다 확대함. 소비자물가는 작년과 동일한 3%대로 설정함.
China sets its economic growth target at around 5% for this year, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing a government report of the country‘s annual meeting of parliament. China sets 2023 government budget deficit target of 3% of gross domestic product, Reuters said, widening from a deficit goal of about 2.8% last year. Consumer price index is set at about 3% for 2023, unchanged from last year’s target, Reuters added.
China sets its economic growth target at around 5% for this year, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing a government report of the country‘s annual meeting of parliament. China sets 2023 government budget deficit target of 3% of gross domestic product, Reuters said, widening from a deficit goal of about 2.8% last year. Consumer price index is set at about 3% for 2023, unchanged from last year’s target, Reuters added.