Docent: 채권시장으로부터 커지고 있는 경고와 반대의 주식시장 상승은 누구도 쉽게 그 답을 하기 어려운 현상임. 특히, 6개월 만기 고정수익이 주식의 수익률(주가수익비율의 역수로 계산 된 수익률)을 상회하는 마당에, 금요일 성장주 지수가 2월 초 이후 최고 상승률을 기록하며 마감하며 이런 의문은 더욱 커지고 있음.
The fixed-income market’s unblemished record of striking fear into the hearts of equity traders is in danger. With rates on two- and 10-year Treasuries up a sixth straight week, and payouts on cash at or above the earnings yield of the S&P 500, stock investors are barely registering a shrug. Benchmark US share indexes just posted their biggest runup in a month, climaxing Friday with a jump in the Nasdaq 100 that topped any since early February. Why peace is breaking out in risky assets during a week that at one point saw yields in the entire Treasury market rise above 4% is a mystery Wall Street has no easy answer for.
The fixed-income market’s unblemished record of striking fear into the hearts of equity traders is in danger. With rates on two- and 10-year Treasuries up a sixth straight week, and payouts on cash at or above the earnings yield of the S&P 500, stock investors are barely registering a shrug. Benchmark US share indexes just posted their biggest runup in a month, climaxing Friday with a jump in the Nasdaq 100 that topped any since early February. Why peace is breaking out in risky assets during a week that at one point saw yields in the entire Treasury market rise above 4% is a mystery Wall Street has no easy answer for.
1) 생각하기 쉬운 이유를 들자면, 두 가지인데, 우선 기술적으로 중요하게 여겨지는 주가지수의 200일 이동평균선을 하회했다 다시 반등한 것, 그리고 금리가 하락하지 않고 지속 높다는 것을 강력한 경기가 지속될 것으로 해석하는 것임. 만일 금리가 하락했다면, 이를 경기침체가 가까워지고 있다 생각했을 것임.
Charts may be one reason: the S&P 500 bounced sharply after falling below its 200-day average on Wednesday. Another may be that investors are interpreting elevated rates as a sign strong economic data is likely to persist, says Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance LLC. “It’s interesting to see stocks whistling past the graveyard,” Zaccarelli said. “Stock investors may be looking for yields to drop as a sign we are going to have a recession and are seeing an all-clear in the sense that rates are higher.”
Charts may be one reason: the S&P 500 bounced sharply after falling below its 200-day average on Wednesday. Another may be that investors are interpreting elevated rates as a sign strong economic data is likely to persist, says Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance LLC. “It’s interesting to see stocks whistling past the graveyard,” Zaccarelli said. “Stock investors may be looking for yields to drop as a sign we are going to have a recession and are seeing an all-clear in the sense that rates are higher.”
2) S&P 500 지수의 투자 수익률에서부터 주식과 채권의 60%/40% 배분에 따른 투자 수익률에 이르기까지 모든 것이 단기 고정수익 5%에 잠식 당하고 있지만, 무위험수익률 5%가 투자자들에게 전부는 아님. 왜냐하면, 투자자들에게는 기회비용이란 또 다른 계산이 있기 때문임. 장기간 우리는 현금을 능가하는 위험자산의 수익률을 보아왔기 때문데, 지난 1년 간 1~3개월 단기 고정수익이 2% 수익을 주고, S&P 500 지수가 -6.3% 손실을 줬다는데만 주목하지 않음. 지난 10년 간 단기 고정수익은 거의 제자리였지만, 주식에 투자한 수익률은 165%였다는 사실을 알기 때문임.
It’s happening even as money cascades out of stock-focused ETFs and into fixed-income funds, as risk-free yields reach multi-year highs. Short-dated Treasury bills are enticing investors as yields push above 5%, eclipsing the payout on everything from profits generated by S&P 500 companies to those offered by the traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. But while the trade is touted as risk free, it comes with opportunity costs. “That short rate isn’t going to be at those levels forever — it’s probably going to end up lower,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. “What we’ve seen over long periods of time is that the long-term assets outperform cash. And we have every reason to believe that’s going to be the case.” Over the past year, the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill exchange-traded fund (ticker BIL) has returned about 2%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has dropped 6.3% on a total return basis. However, over the past decade BIL is flat, while SPY soared 165% during an epic bull run.
It’s happening even as money cascades out of stock-focused ETFs and into fixed-income funds, as risk-free yields reach multi-year highs. Short-dated Treasury bills are enticing investors as yields push above 5%, eclipsing the payout on everything from profits generated by S&P 500 companies to those offered by the traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. But while the trade is touted as risk free, it comes with opportunity costs. “That short rate isn’t going to be at those levels forever — it’s probably going to end up lower,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. “What we’ve seen over long periods of time is that the long-term assets outperform cash. And we have every reason to believe that’s going to be the case.” Over the past year, the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill exchange-traded fund (ticker BIL) has returned about 2%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has dropped 6.3% on a total return basis. However, over the past decade BIL is flat, while SPY soared 165% during an epic bull run.
3) 또한 단기 자금에 투자하여 얻을 수 있는 수익에 기다림은 길게 필요하지 않지만, 주식이 가진 장기적인 잠재력은 없음. 만일 5년 이상의 투자기간을 가진 투자자라면, 수익률을 개선시키기 위해 주식을 포트폴리오에 편입할 수 밖에 없는 것임. 뿐만 아니라, 1970년대로 돌아가보면 금리는 다시 하락하고 성장률 또한 떨어졌지만, 주식은 해당 기간 다시 상승을 시작했음. 그러므로 주식에 투자하는 이유는 현재의 통화정책주기도 정점을 언젠가 통과할 것이고, 그 때가 되면 단기자금의 수익률을 주식의 투자 수익률이 훨씬 능가할 것이기 때문으로 볼 수 있음.
“There’s much less ‘opportunity cost’ than what we’re used to because it’s a place where you can get paid while you wait, but there’s not long-term price potential like in equities,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “So for people with more than a five-year time horizon, you still need equities in the portfolio to set you up for compounding returns.”. The notion that yields may be peaking also has investors preaching caution when it comes to bonds. While bets have been building in recent weeks that the Fed will ultimately need to raise rates past 5% to stamp out inflation — boosting yields across the Treasury curve — traders are pricing in an end to increases by September. Tipp hearkened back to the 1970s, when inflation was a threat to both stocks and bonds. As growth moderated and rates leveled off and then came down, equities rose — even though the economy remained weak. “There’s a good chance that that kind of cyclicality is going to make its way through the markets, and people that lock in at the short term, exit the long-term markets and go into short term are going to suffer,” he said. “Their long-term returns are not going to be as high because the cash rates will probably move lower.”
“There’s much less ‘opportunity cost’ than what we’re used to because it’s a place where you can get paid while you wait, but there’s not long-term price potential like in equities,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “So for people with more than a five-year time horizon, you still need equities in the portfolio to set you up for compounding returns.”. The notion that yields may be peaking also has investors preaching caution when it comes to bonds. While bets have been building in recent weeks that the Fed will ultimately need to raise rates past 5% to stamp out inflation — boosting yields across the Treasury curve — traders are pricing in an end to increases by September. Tipp hearkened back to the 1970s, when inflation was a threat to both stocks and bonds. As growth moderated and rates leveled off and then came down, equities rose — even though the economy remained weak. “There’s a good chance that that kind of cyclicality is going to make its way through the markets, and people that lock in at the short term, exit the long-term markets and go into short term are going to suffer,” he said. “Their long-term returns are not going to be as high because the cash rates will probably move lower.”
4) 투자자들은 단기 고정수익을 통해 만기에 대한 위험을 피할 수 있고, 신용 위험 또한 피할 수 있음. 다만, 그들은 기회비용이란 위험을 감수하는 것임. 때문에 투자자들은 어느 시점에서는 단기자금에 쌓아둔 돈을 모두 인출해 주식에 다시 넣을 준비를 하고 있을 것이며, 주식이 바닥을 만드는 신호가 나타날 때마다 그런 움직임을 보일 것임.
“I do think that we need to take advantage of the higher yields on the short-end of the yield curve, wait out this continued volatility,” David Spika, president and chief investment officer of GuideStone Capital Management, said in an interview. “And then at some point we’ll hit a bottom, and that will be a great time to re-risk, take that money out of cash, put it back in equities and you’ll benefit from that.”. “So, cash may pay you 4.5-5% today, but in one year that may not be the case, in two years that may not be the case,” he said in an interview.“. The challenge in allocating to cash is that while you’re not taking any duration risk and you’re not taking any credit risk, the risk that you’re taking is the opportunity cost or the uncertainty risk associated with what that cash will pay you in the future relative to the yield you can lock in over the longer-term by moving out further on the yield curve.”
“I do think that we need to take advantage of the higher yields on the short-end of the yield curve, wait out this continued volatility,” David Spika, president and chief investment officer of GuideStone Capital Management, said in an interview. “And then at some point we’ll hit a bottom, and that will be a great time to re-risk, take that money out of cash, put it back in equities and you’ll benefit from that.”. “So, cash may pay you 4.5-5% today, but in one year that may not be the case, in two years that may not be the case,” he said in an interview.“. The challenge in allocating to cash is that while you’re not taking any duration risk and you’re not taking any credit risk, the risk that you’re taking is the opportunity cost or the uncertainty risk associated with what that cash will pay you in the future relative to the yield you can lock in over the longer-term by moving out further on the yield curve.”
Bottom-line: 중국은 올해 경제성장률을 약 5%로 목표하고, 재정적자폭을 국내총생산의 3%로 전년 2.8%보다 확대함. 소비자물가는 작년과 동일한 3%대로 설정함.
China sets its economic growth target at around 5% for this year, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing a government report of the country‘s annual meeting of parliament. China sets 2023 government budget deficit target of 3% of gross domestic product, Reuters said, widening from a deficit goal of about 2.8% last year. Consumer price index is set at about 3% for 2023, unchanged from last year’s target, Reuters added.
China sets its economic growth target at around 5% for this year, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing a government report of the country‘s annual meeting of parliament. China sets 2023 government budget deficit target of 3% of gross domestic product, Reuters said, widening from a deficit goal of about 2.8% last year. Consumer price index is set at about 3% for 2023, unchanged from last year’s target, Reuters added.
Technical Story: 현재 주식시장에서 유명한 약세론자 중 한명인 모건스탠리의 윌슨은 주가의 200일 이동평균선은 기술적 핵심 지표로 널리 사용되는데, 지난 주 S&P 500 지수가 이 선을 지탱하며 반등함에 따라 약세 시장 속 주가의 단기 상승이 아직 끝나지 않았음을 보여준 것이라 함. 그는 달러 및 채권 금리 하락이 뒷받침 된다면, 이 상승은 조금 더 연장될 것으로 봄.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, known for being one of Wall Street’s most bearish strategists, said he’s expecting stocks to rally in the short term. Wilson pointed to the S&P 500’s resilience at the 200-day moving average last week, a widely-monitored technical indicator of an index’s momentum against its current price. The bounce off the line suggests it may now act as a support for the benchmark. Wilson said the index is likely to move higher if Treasury yields and the dollar continue to decline. “Equity markets survived a crucial test of support last week that suggests this bear market rally is not ready to end just yet,” the strategist wrote in a note Monday.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, known for being one of Wall Street’s most bearish strategists, said he’s expecting stocks to rally in the short term. Wilson pointed to the S&P 500’s resilience at the 200-day moving average last week, a widely-monitored technical indicator of an index’s momentum against its current price. The bounce off the line suggests it may now act as a support for the benchmark. Wilson said the index is likely to move higher if Treasury yields and the dollar continue to decline. “Equity markets survived a crucial test of support last week that suggests this bear market rally is not ready to end just yet,” the strategist wrote in a note Monday.
Bottom-line: 이번 중앙은행 의장의 청문회는 3월 10일 고용 지표, 3월 14일 소비자물가지표를 앞두고 있기 때문에 시장 참여자들이 원하는 구체적인 무언가를 주지 않을 가능성이 있음.
One thing to keep in mind about today’s hearing is that it comes before a key piece of economic data -- the February jobs report (March 10). So Powell may want to steer clear of giving any sort of specific guidance about what the most likely course is for the March policy meeting. In fact, there will also be the February consumer price index report (March 14) coming between Powell’s hearings this week and the next Fed meeting. So there’s some critical data ahead.
One thing to keep in mind about today’s hearing is that it comes before a key piece of economic data -- the February jobs report (March 10). So Powell may want to steer clear of giving any sort of specific guidance about what the most likely course is for the March policy meeting. In fact, there will also be the February consumer price index report (March 14) coming between Powell’s hearings this week and the next Fed meeting. So there’s some critical data ahead.
Bottom-line: 이번 청문회에서 파월 의장은 지나친 금리인상으로 인한 경기침체, 그리고 수백만명이 일자리를 잃게 되는데 대한 압박을 받을 수 있음. 중앙은행의 두 책무 중 하나가 완전고용에 최선을 다하는 것이기 때문임.
Powell can expect to be pressed hard on the issue of rate hikes potentially undermining the Fed’s mandate for maximizing sustainable employment. As we reported last week, Senator Elizabeth Warren wants Biden’s Fed vice chair pick to counter Powell on rate hikes, with the Massachusetts Democrat worried they will push the economy into a recession and result in millions losing their jobs.
Powell can expect to be pressed hard on the issue of rate hikes potentially undermining the Fed’s mandate for maximizing sustainable employment. As we reported last week, Senator Elizabeth Warren wants Biden’s Fed vice chair pick to counter Powell on rate hikes, with the Massachusetts Democrat worried they will push the economy into a recession and result in millions losing their jobs.
Implication: 보다 강한 긴축이 필요하다는 경제지표가 모여지면, 현재보다 더 빠른 속도의 금리인상을 할 준비가 된 상태임.
“If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. Restoring price stability will likely require that we maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.”
“If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. Restoring price stability will likely require that we maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.”
Bottom-line: 경제지표가 예상보다 높은 바, 최종적인 정책금리 또한 이전보다 높아질 것임.
“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”
“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.”