Bottom-line: Avengers Assemble.
The US's biggest banks agreed to deposit $30 billion with First Republic in an effort to stem the market turmoil. JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells Fargo will contribute $5 billion of uninsured deposits each, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley will kick in $2.5 billion apiece. Others will deposit smaller amounts. The news helped First Republic shares rebound from a 36% loss.
The US's biggest banks agreed to deposit $30 billion with First Republic in an effort to stem the market turmoil. JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells Fargo will contribute $5 billion of uninsured deposits each, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley will kick in $2.5 billion apiece. Others will deposit smaller amounts. The news helped First Republic shares rebound from a 36% loss.
Things To Know: 매일 시장 가치로 평가 받지 않는 자산에 대해 그 가치를 더 높게 주고 받았던 시기가 지나고, 이제 초기 거래 시점의 가치로 돌아갈만큼 평가를 상각하는 일이 발생하고 있음. 이는 주로 유동성에 의한 자산가격 팽창이 사그러드는 후기에 나타나는 일임.
Tiger Global Management marked down the investments in its venture funds by about 33% last year, resulting in a $23 billion decline in value, according to a person familiar with the matter. Around $9 billion of the markdown came in the second half of the year, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. A representative for the New York-based firm declined to comment. In late November, Bloomberg reported that Tiger Global, which also manages hedge and long-only funds, had marked down the value of its private funds by almost a quarter. The full-year figures for the venture unit, led by Scott Shleifer, were reported earlier Thursday by the Wall Street Journal.
Tiger Global Management marked down the investments in its venture funds by about 33% last year, resulting in a $23 billion decline in value, according to a person familiar with the matter. Around $9 billion of the markdown came in the second half of the year, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. A representative for the New York-based firm declined to comment. In late November, Bloomberg reported that Tiger Global, which also manages hedge and long-only funds, had marked down the value of its private funds by almost a quarter. The full-year figures for the venture unit, led by Scott Shleifer, were reported earlier Thursday by the Wall Street Journal.
China’s central bank cut the amount of money banks have to keep in reserve in an effort to stimulate the economy. The 0.25 percentage point cut will apply to almost all banks and take effect from March 27, the People’s Bank of China said Friday.
Bottom-line: 미시간 대학의 소비자 조사에 따르면, 소비자들의 물가 기대가 단기와 장기 모두 낮아졌음. 단기의 경우 2년래 최저치인 3.8% 물가 상승 전망, 장기의 경우 6개월래 최저치인 2.8% 물가 상승으로 조사 되었음.
US short-term inflation expectations fell in early March to the lowest level in nearly two years and long-run views also eased, but consumer sentiment still fell due to persistently high prices. Respondents said they expect inflation to rise 3.8% over the next year, the lowest reading since April 2021, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading. They expect prices to advance 2.8% over the next five to ten years, the lowest in six months.
US short-term inflation expectations fell in early March to the lowest level in nearly two years and long-run views also eased, but consumer sentiment still fell due to persistently high prices. Respondents said they expect inflation to rise 3.8% over the next year, the lowest reading since April 2021, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading. They expect prices to advance 2.8% over the next five to ten years, the lowest in six months.
Life & Arts: Why children can be better than adults at spotting misinformation.
어린 아이들이 성인보다 잘못 된 정보를 더 잘 발견할 수 있다는 주장이 놀라운 파이낸셜 타임즈의 내용임. 유년 시절 산타클로스와 루돌프의 이야기를 믿는 아이들이 어른보다 나을 것이라 믿기 어려울 수 있지만, 현재 세상에 유포되고 있는 수 많은 거짓과 음모론의 근본은 아무것도 믿지 않는 것(because they start by trusting nothing.)에서 시작된다는 것을 생각해 볼 필요가 있음. 이 글에서 사람들에게 세상을 이해할 때 세 가지 'C'를 강조하는데, 차분함(Calm), 맥락(Context), 호기심(Curiosity)임. 감정적인 반응을 제거하고, 맥락이 없는 숫자를 버리고, 이해하고 싶어하는 호기심이 중요하다는 뜻임. 아이들은 어떨까? 아이들에게 맥락을 기대하긴 어렵지만, 성인보다 덜 논쟁하고 감정을 소모하지 않기 때문에 차분할 수 있으며, 놀라울 정도로 호기심이 깊음. 우리는 종종 호기심의 가치를 과소평가 함(We adults underrate the value of this curiosity.). 우리의 무지의 근원을 생각해보면, 답을 알고 싶어 질문하는 호기심이 사라져 있기 때문(we don’t ask questions because we don’t care to know the answers.)일 수도 있음. 어린 아이들은 호기심을 가지고 진실을 탐정처럼 찾고자 하는 열망이 있기 때문에 잘못 된 정보를 발견하는데 더 적합하다는 주장임. 무언가를 탐색하는 것이 우리가 누릴 수 있는 기쁨 중 하나라는 사실(The sleuthing is part of the joy.)을 잊지 말았으면 함. 세상을 이해하려는 노력과 호기심을 성인들은 잊어버리곤 하기 때문에, 언제나 스스로를 되돌아 볼 필요가 있음.
어린 아이들이 성인보다 잘못 된 정보를 더 잘 발견할 수 있다는 주장이 놀라운 파이낸셜 타임즈의 내용임. 유년 시절 산타클로스와 루돌프의 이야기를 믿는 아이들이 어른보다 나을 것이라 믿기 어려울 수 있지만, 현재 세상에 유포되고 있는 수 많은 거짓과 음모론의 근본은 아무것도 믿지 않는 것(because they start by trusting nothing.)에서 시작된다는 것을 생각해 볼 필요가 있음. 이 글에서 사람들에게 세상을 이해할 때 세 가지 'C'를 강조하는데, 차분함(Calm), 맥락(Context), 호기심(Curiosity)임. 감정적인 반응을 제거하고, 맥락이 없는 숫자를 버리고, 이해하고 싶어하는 호기심이 중요하다는 뜻임. 아이들은 어떨까? 아이들에게 맥락을 기대하긴 어렵지만, 성인보다 덜 논쟁하고 감정을 소모하지 않기 때문에 차분할 수 있으며, 놀라울 정도로 호기심이 깊음. 우리는 종종 호기심의 가치를 과소평가 함(We adults underrate the value of this curiosity.). 우리의 무지의 근원을 생각해보면, 답을 알고 싶어 질문하는 호기심이 사라져 있기 때문(we don’t ask questions because we don’t care to know the answers.)일 수도 있음. 어린 아이들은 호기심을 가지고 진실을 탐정처럼 찾고자 하는 열망이 있기 때문에 잘못 된 정보를 발견하는데 더 적합하다는 주장임. 무언가를 탐색하는 것이 우리가 누릴 수 있는 기쁨 중 하나라는 사실(The sleuthing is part of the joy.)을 잊지 말았으면 함. 세상을 이해하려는 노력과 호기심을 성인들은 잊어버리곤 하기 때문에, 언제나 스스로를 되돌아 볼 필요가 있음.
Bottom-line: 은행의 위기로부터 우리에게 지금 가장 큰 의문은 주식시장일 것임. 그리고 답은 어떤 포지션을 취하고 있는지 여부에 있음. 이번 달 은행의 위기 이후 S&P 500 지수는 -1%, 나스닥 100 지수는 +3% 상승했고, 나스닥 100 지수는 연 초 이후 +15% 수익률을 기록 중임. 대형 자금을 운용하는 펀드 매니저들은 이런 위기가 발생하기 전에 이미 주식 비중을 줄이고 현금을 보유하거나 옵션을 통해 하방 위험에 대한 보험을 들고 있었음. 제이피모건의 헤지펀드 포지션 분석에 따르면 매수와 매도 비중의 차이로 대변되는 순노출도가 2017년 이후 100분위에서 6분위에 이를 정도로 매우 낮으며, 명확한 위험회피 성향을 보였다고 함. 골드만삭스가 분석해 본 헤지펀드 포지션에서도 비교지수 내 은행의 비중보다 실제 -3.43%p 적게 은행 주식을 보유하고 있었음. 이처럼 채권과 주식 간 서로 다른 포지션 형태가 은행의 위기로부터 다른 가격 움직임을 만든 것임.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm? Part of the answer, as is often the case, is positioning. Since the day before SVB Financial Group’s big share plunge, the S&P 500 is down only 1% despite a crash in regional lenders that has wiped out almost a quarter of the industry’s share value. The Nasdaq 100 has climbed almost 3% over the stretch, extending its year-to-date advance to 15%. It’s a vivid example of resilience, particularly next to what’s occurred in Treasuries. While hopes for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign are also at play, big money mangers in equities have been on guard for the worst since before the financial fireworks erupted, cutting stock exposure while loading up on protection via cash and options hedging. Net money flows for US stocks by hedge funds tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been turning negative since last August, according to the firm’s prime brokerage unit. Including other regions, net leverage among equity long-short funds now sits in the 6th percentile of its range since 2017 — a clear sign of risk aversion. According to market-wide regulatory filings compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., hedge fund holdings in banks stood 343 basis points below what would be indicated by a benchmark index at the start of 2023. “At least some of this resilience is likely due to the selling that had been taking place prior to the past week and the somewhat low positioning,” JPMorgan’s team including John Schlegel wrote in a note Friday. “The overall picture from the US is one where there are many signs that flows have been quite risk-off, especially on a one-month basis“. Divergent positioning between fixed income and equity investors mostly explains why government bonds produced a more pronounced move in reaction to the banking chaos, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm? Part of the answer, as is often the case, is positioning. Since the day before SVB Financial Group’s big share plunge, the S&P 500 is down only 1% despite a crash in regional lenders that has wiped out almost a quarter of the industry’s share value. The Nasdaq 100 has climbed almost 3% over the stretch, extending its year-to-date advance to 15%. It’s a vivid example of resilience, particularly next to what’s occurred in Treasuries. While hopes for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign are also at play, big money mangers in equities have been on guard for the worst since before the financial fireworks erupted, cutting stock exposure while loading up on protection via cash and options hedging. Net money flows for US stocks by hedge funds tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been turning negative since last August, according to the firm’s prime brokerage unit. Including other regions, net leverage among equity long-short funds now sits in the 6th percentile of its range since 2017 — a clear sign of risk aversion. According to market-wide regulatory filings compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., hedge fund holdings in banks stood 343 basis points below what would be indicated by a benchmark index at the start of 2023. “At least some of this resilience is likely due to the selling that had been taking place prior to the past week and the somewhat low positioning,” JPMorgan’s team including John Schlegel wrote in a note Friday. “The overall picture from the US is one where there are many signs that flows have been quite risk-off, especially on a one-month basis“. Divergent positioning between fixed income and equity investors mostly explains why government bonds produced a more pronounced move in reaction to the banking chaos, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte.
Bottom-line: 막대한 자금을 운용하는 대형 운용사들은 금리인상, 은행의 실패, 경기침체 위협을 넘어서 다음 상승을 놓치는데 대한 두려움을 가지고 있음. 작금의 금융환경 불안은 중앙은행이 다시 완화적 정책으로 돌아가도록 만들 것이기 때문에 시장의 새로운 상승을 준비해야 한다는 것임. 특히 경험적으로 시작의 초기 상승을 놓치면 큰 수익의 대부분을 얻지 못하는 꼴이기 때문이며, 초기 1~2주, 심지어 단 몇 일 사이의 상승만 놓쳐도 큰 수익률 차이로 갈릴 수 있다고 답함. 이들은 최근 만기가 긴 채권, 작년 한 해 큰 폭의 손실을 기록한 기술주 등을 다시 살피고 있음.
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally. For trillion-dollar investment groups Franklin Templeton, Invesco and JPMorgan Asset Management, the accelerating financial instability seen in Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG and First Republic Bank are cues to speed up preparations. They’re convinced that an impending slowdown in the US and elsewhere will prompt central banks to switch back to looser policy, triggering a renewed surge higher in markets. “If you miss the start of the rally, you miss the bulk of the returns,” said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, a unit of the $1.4 trillion fund manager. “It’s very difficult to catch up if you miss the first week or two. Sometimes it’s just days”. That imperative has large investors bulking up on longer-dated bonds, eying big losers of the past year like tech stocks and selectively buying riskier assets like private credit.
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally. For trillion-dollar investment groups Franklin Templeton, Invesco and JPMorgan Asset Management, the accelerating financial instability seen in Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG and First Republic Bank are cues to speed up preparations. They’re convinced that an impending slowdown in the US and elsewhere will prompt central banks to switch back to looser policy, triggering a renewed surge higher in markets. “If you miss the start of the rally, you miss the bulk of the returns,” said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, a unit of the $1.4 trillion fund manager. “It’s very difficult to catch up if you miss the first week or two. Sometimes it’s just days”. That imperative has large investors bulking up on longer-dated bonds, eying big losers of the past year like tech stocks and selectively buying riskier assets like private credit.
Powell: 은행의 문제를 해결하지 않을 수 없으며, 현재 대다수 은행들은 건강한 상태를 유지 중임. 중앙은행 또한 이 일로부터 배우려 함.
Serious problems at a small number of banks have emerged. if left unaddressed can undermine confidence in healthy banks. Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity. The Fed is committed to learning lessons from this episode.
Serious problems at a small number of banks have emerged. if left unaddressed can undermine confidence in healthy banks. Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity. The Fed is committed to learning lessons from this episode.
Powell: 인플레이션 목표치로 도달하는 과정은 여전히 길 것이며 높은 인플레이션이 초래하는 위험이 크다고 평가함.
The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy. High inflation imposes significant hardship.
The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy. High inflation imposes significant hardship.