Bottom-line: 은행의 위기로부터 우리에게 지금 가장 큰 의문은 주식시장일 것임. 그리고 답은 어떤 포지션을 취하고 있는지 여부에 있음. 이번 달 은행의 위기 이후 S&P 500 지수는 -1%, 나스닥 100 지수는 +3% 상승했고, 나스닥 100 지수는 연 초 이후 +15% 수익률을 기록 중임. 대형 자금을 운용하는 펀드 매니저들은 이런 위기가 발생하기 전에 이미 주식 비중을 줄이고 현금을 보유하거나 옵션을 통해 하방 위험에 대한 보험을 들고 있었음. 제이피모건의 헤지펀드 포지션 분석에 따르면 매수와 매도 비중의 차이로 대변되는 순노출도가 2017년 이후 100분위에서 6분위에 이를 정도로 매우 낮으며, 명확한 위험회피 성향을 보였다고 함. 골드만삭스가 분석해 본 헤지펀드 포지션에서도 비교지수 내 은행의 비중보다 실제 -3.43%p 적게 은행 주식을 보유하고 있었음. 이처럼 채권과 주식 간 서로 다른 포지션 형태가 은행의 위기로부터 다른 가격 움직임을 만든 것임.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm? Part of the answer, as is often the case, is positioning. Since the day before SVB Financial Group’s big share plunge, the S&P 500 is down only 1% despite a crash in regional lenders that has wiped out almost a quarter of the industry’s share value. The Nasdaq 100 has climbed almost 3% over the stretch, extending its year-to-date advance to 15%. It’s a vivid example of resilience, particularly next to what’s occurred in Treasuries. While hopes for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign are also at play, big money mangers in equities have been on guard for the worst since before the financial fireworks erupted, cutting stock exposure while loading up on protection via cash and options hedging. Net money flows for US stocks by hedge funds tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been turning negative since last August, according to the firm’s prime brokerage unit. Including other regions, net leverage among equity long-short funds now sits in the 6th percentile of its range since 2017 — a clear sign of risk aversion. According to market-wide regulatory filings compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., hedge fund holdings in banks stood 343 basis points below what would be indicated by a benchmark index at the start of 2023. “At least some of this resilience is likely due to the selling that had been taking place prior to the past week and the somewhat low positioning,” JPMorgan’s team including John Schlegel wrote in a note Friday. “The overall picture from the US is one where there are many signs that flows have been quite risk-off, especially on a one-month basis“. Divergent positioning between fixed income and equity investors mostly explains why government bonds produced a more pronounced move in reaction to the banking chaos, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte.
A question has arisen amid all the bank failures. How, with the bond market enduring its worst spasm of volatility in almost four decades, have benchmark-level stocks managed to glide along, oases of calm? Part of the answer, as is often the case, is positioning. Since the day before SVB Financial Group’s big share plunge, the S&P 500 is down only 1% despite a crash in regional lenders that has wiped out almost a quarter of the industry’s share value. The Nasdaq 100 has climbed almost 3% over the stretch, extending its year-to-date advance to 15%. It’s a vivid example of resilience, particularly next to what’s occurred in Treasuries. While hopes for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign are also at play, big money mangers in equities have been on guard for the worst since before the financial fireworks erupted, cutting stock exposure while loading up on protection via cash and options hedging. Net money flows for US stocks by hedge funds tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been turning negative since last August, according to the firm’s prime brokerage unit. Including other regions, net leverage among equity long-short funds now sits in the 6th percentile of its range since 2017 — a clear sign of risk aversion. According to market-wide regulatory filings compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., hedge fund holdings in banks stood 343 basis points below what would be indicated by a benchmark index at the start of 2023. “At least some of this resilience is likely due to the selling that had been taking place prior to the past week and the somewhat low positioning,” JPMorgan’s team including John Schlegel wrote in a note Friday. “The overall picture from the US is one where there are many signs that flows have been quite risk-off, especially on a one-month basis“. Divergent positioning between fixed income and equity investors mostly explains why government bonds produced a more pronounced move in reaction to the banking chaos, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte.
Bottom-line: 막대한 자금을 운용하는 대형 운용사들은 금리인상, 은행의 실패, 경기침체 위협을 넘어서 다음 상승을 놓치는데 대한 두려움을 가지고 있음. 작금의 금융환경 불안은 중앙은행이 다시 완화적 정책으로 돌아가도록 만들 것이기 때문에 시장의 새로운 상승을 준비해야 한다는 것임. 특히 경험적으로 시작의 초기 상승을 놓치면 큰 수익의 대부분을 얻지 못하는 꼴이기 때문이며, 초기 1~2주, 심지어 단 몇 일 사이의 상승만 놓쳐도 큰 수익률 차이로 갈릴 수 있다고 답함. 이들은 최근 만기가 긴 채권, 작년 한 해 큰 폭의 손실을 기록한 기술주 등을 다시 살피고 있음.
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally. For trillion-dollar investment groups Franklin Templeton, Invesco and JPMorgan Asset Management, the accelerating financial instability seen in Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG and First Republic Bank are cues to speed up preparations. They’re convinced that an impending slowdown in the US and elsewhere will prompt central banks to switch back to looser policy, triggering a renewed surge higher in markets. “If you miss the start of the rally, you miss the bulk of the returns,” said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, a unit of the $1.4 trillion fund manager. “It’s very difficult to catch up if you miss the first week or two. Sometimes it’s just days”. That imperative has large investors bulking up on longer-dated bonds, eying big losers of the past year like tech stocks and selectively buying riskier assets like private credit.
Some of the world’s biggest investors are looking beyond interest-rate hikes, bank failures and the threat of recession to one of the greatest fears of all money managers — missing out on the next big rally. For trillion-dollar investment groups Franklin Templeton, Invesco and JPMorgan Asset Management, the accelerating financial instability seen in Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Group AG and First Republic Bank are cues to speed up preparations. They’re convinced that an impending slowdown in the US and elsewhere will prompt central banks to switch back to looser policy, triggering a renewed surge higher in markets. “If you miss the start of the rally, you miss the bulk of the returns,” said Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, a unit of the $1.4 trillion fund manager. “It’s very difficult to catch up if you miss the first week or two. Sometimes it’s just days”. That imperative has large investors bulking up on longer-dated bonds, eying big losers of the past year like tech stocks and selectively buying riskier assets like private credit.
Powell: 은행의 문제를 해결하지 않을 수 없으며, 현재 대다수 은행들은 건강한 상태를 유지 중임. 중앙은행 또한 이 일로부터 배우려 함.
Serious problems at a small number of banks have emerged. if left unaddressed can undermine confidence in healthy banks. Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity. The Fed is committed to learning lessons from this episode.
Serious problems at a small number of banks have emerged. if left unaddressed can undermine confidence in healthy banks. Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity. The Fed is committed to learning lessons from this episode.
Powell: 인플레이션 목표치로 도달하는 과정은 여전히 길 것이며 높은 인플레이션이 초래하는 위험이 크다고 평가함.
The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy. High inflation imposes significant hardship.
The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy. High inflation imposes significant hardship.
Q&A: 금리인상을 중단해야 하는지를 고려한 사실이 있다고 답함.
He’s asked how seriously a pause was considered for this meeting.
Powell says they considered it.
He’s asked how seriously a pause was considered for this meeting.
Powell says they considered it.
Q&A: 시장 참여자들이 예상하는 금리인하의 경우 경제가 중앙은행이 예측하는 범위에 있다면 그럴 이유가 없다고 함.
Bloomberg’s Michael McKee asks about the market pricing in rate cuts later this year...is the market wrong?
Powell says if the economy proceeds as policymakers expect, there won’t be a case for rate cuts.
Bloomberg’s Michael McKee asks about the market pricing in rate cuts later this year...is the market wrong?
Powell says if the economy proceeds as policymakers expect, there won’t be a case for rate cuts.
Market Reaction: 시장 참여자들은 중앙은행이 작금의 사태로 통화정책의 발목이 잡히지 않았고, 필요한 경우 지속 금리를 인상하겠단 태도에 실망, 위험자산들의 상승세를 되돌림.
Stocks are giving back their earlier gains as Powell sticks with the idea the Fed will raise rates down the line if they have to. The S&P 500 is down 0.2% shortly after 3 p.m. in New York, and the Russell 2000 is down 1%. The Nasdaq 100 is now higher by 0.3% after being up more than 1% earlier. Maybe some traders didn’t like that comment about how the Fed’s hands aren’t tied and it will raise rates higher than expected if needed.
Stocks are giving back their earlier gains as Powell sticks with the idea the Fed will raise rates down the line if they have to. The S&P 500 is down 0.2% shortly after 3 p.m. in New York, and the Russell 2000 is down 1%. The Nasdaq 100 is now higher by 0.3% after being up more than 1% earlier. Maybe some traders didn’t like that comment about how the Fed’s hands aren’t tied and it will raise rates higher than expected if needed.
Bottom-line: 파월의 발언은 종전보다 덜 강경했음. 이를 계량하는 지표는 이제 중립적 위치에 있고, 5월 금리인상이 중단 될 가능성이 높다는 뜻임.
Powell’s opening remarks from the post-meeting press conference were much more dovish than the recent trend, though still slightly hawkish. The indicator is quite close to neutral, suggesting the possibility of a pause has increased meaningfully at the May meeting compared with the recent past.
Powell’s opening remarks from the post-meeting press conference were much more dovish than the recent trend, though still slightly hawkish. The indicator is quite close to neutral, suggesting the possibility of a pause has increased meaningfully at the May meeting compared with the recent past.
Bottom-line: Powell Sets Up Clash With Traders Again.
Jerome Powell says Fed officials don’t expect rate cuts this year. That’s not -- at all -- what funds futures or swaps are pricing in. Just as a reminder, the last time the market played chicken with the Fed, Powell won. Traders were forced to swerve when the January jobs data came out. Stocks have just about wiped out their gains.
Jerome Powell says Fed officials don’t expect rate cuts this year. That’s not -- at all -- what funds futures or swaps are pricing in. Just as a reminder, the last time the market played chicken with the Fed, Powell won. Traders were forced to swerve when the January jobs data came out. Stocks have just about wiped out their gains.
Bottom-line: 파월 의장의 발언 동안 가격의 움직임이 고르지 않을 수 있다는 사실에 투자자들은 익숙하지만, 핵심 인물 둘이 동시간대에 발언을 하고, 그 해석도 상반된다면 그 변동을 감내하기엔 무리가 있음. 파월은 금융환경이 열악해질 경우 예금자 보호를 확대할 가능성을 열어뒀지만, 옐런은 그 희망을 문을 닫아버리며 장 중 상승분을 모두 반납함.
Traders are accustomed to a bumpy ride whenever Jerome Powell speaks. But when Powell speaks at the same time Janet Yellen is talking to Congress about the health of the banking sector, the turbulence can get overwhelming. It’s rare that two people of such stature speak at the same time, worse when they project messages that traders interpreted as in opposition. A little while after hearing what they thought was Powell tipping broader protection to depositors should financial stress spread, Yellen came on the feed to knock the hope down. The S&P 500 erased an earlier gain of 0.9%, marking the sixth time this year that an intraday rally of that size was reversed.
Traders are accustomed to a bumpy ride whenever Jerome Powell speaks. But when Powell speaks at the same time Janet Yellen is talking to Congress about the health of the banking sector, the turbulence can get overwhelming. It’s rare that two people of such stature speak at the same time, worse when they project messages that traders interpreted as in opposition. A little while after hearing what they thought was Powell tipping broader protection to depositors should financial stress spread, Yellen came on the feed to knock the hope down. The S&P 500 erased an earlier gain of 0.9%, marking the sixth time this year that an intraday rally of that size was reversed.