Bottom-line: 크리스찬 디올의 가을 패션쇼가 지난 3월 30일 인도 뭄바이에서 열렸고, 당일 지배회사인 LVMH의 주가가 새로운 고점을 갱신함. 디올의 패션쇼에 인도를 추가하는 결정을 내린데는 부상하는 국가의 부와 그에 따른 소비여력이 충분한 소비자에 있다고 볼 수 있는데, 조사에 따르면 인도는 119명의 억만장자가 있고, 2018년부터 2022년 사이 매일 70명의 백만장자가 탄생했다고 함. 인구 14억에 이르는 이 국가는 부와 소비를 위한 충분한 성장 잠재력을 가지고 있음에도 불구하고 개척되지 않은 시장이라는 점을 주목하고 있음.
Christian Dior Couture showcased its Fall 2023 collection in Mumbai on March 30, becoming the first fashion house to unveil the latest lines in India as luxury brands tap new markets in a hunt for their next billions. Everything from sari-inspired skirts to boleros to vibrantly colored outfits in silks, including those in an Indian pink, were on display, with the Gateway of India as the backdrop in the show led by Dior’s first female creative director, Maria Grazia Chiuri. Parent group LVMH’s shares rose as much as 1% to 838.7 euros ($913), touching a record high during market hours on Friday. Dior, the second-biggest brand of billionaire Bernard Arnault’s French luxury behemoth LVMH, and the decision to add India to its seasonal schedule shows a rising interest to tap the nation’s rising wealth. India currently has 119 billionaires, according to Oxfam, with the country estimated to produce 70 new millionaires every day between 2018 and 2022. It also points to Dior’s ability to bring entry-level buyers into the LVMH realm — a rising group of spenders, especially in the country of 1.4 billion people, through its cosmetics to perfumes to bags offerings. “It’s a hugely untapped market with middle class on the rise and lots more and lots more, by the year, millionaires,” says Deborah Aitken, senior analyst for luxury goods at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It’s vibrant, it’s new design, new color, new technologies into the luxury space, which is hugely needed“.
Christian Dior Couture showcased its Fall 2023 collection in Mumbai on March 30, becoming the first fashion house to unveil the latest lines in India as luxury brands tap new markets in a hunt for their next billions. Everything from sari-inspired skirts to boleros to vibrantly colored outfits in silks, including those in an Indian pink, were on display, with the Gateway of India as the backdrop in the show led by Dior’s first female creative director, Maria Grazia Chiuri. Parent group LVMH’s shares rose as much as 1% to 838.7 euros ($913), touching a record high during market hours on Friday. Dior, the second-biggest brand of billionaire Bernard Arnault’s French luxury behemoth LVMH, and the decision to add India to its seasonal schedule shows a rising interest to tap the nation’s rising wealth. India currently has 119 billionaires, according to Oxfam, with the country estimated to produce 70 new millionaires every day between 2018 and 2022. It also points to Dior’s ability to bring entry-level buyers into the LVMH realm — a rising group of spenders, especially in the country of 1.4 billion people, through its cosmetics to perfumes to bags offerings. “It’s a hugely untapped market with middle class on the rise and lots more and lots more, by the year, millionaires,” says Deborah Aitken, senior analyst for luxury goods at Bloomberg Intelligence. “It’s vibrant, it’s new design, new color, new technologies into the luxury space, which is hugely needed“.
Bottom-line: 단기에 금리가 상승하면서 기업들이 가능한 최대로 대출을 통해 자금을 조달하는 것을 피하고 있음. 자금조달 시장은 지난 1분기 4,930억 달러로 전년 대비 -43% 감소한 실적을 냈고, 이는 2010년 이후 최저 수준의 신디케이트론 실적임. 특히 다수 은행의 부실 이후 은행도 대출 태도가 급격하게 악화되었고, 최근 악화 된 경제환경에 따라 기업이 자금을 차입하는 동인 중 하나인 인수합병 거래도 큰 폭으로 감소했음. 전문가는 2분기 이후 조달 시장이 활력을 찾길 기대하지만 이 또한 경제 상황과 투자자들의 심리에 달려있음.
Faced with soaring interest rates and market whiplash, companies are turning away from the loan market in a way that hasn’t been seen this decade. Companies are delaying borrowing if they can, given how quickly rates have climbed in recent months, analysts say. Global sales of syndicated loans fell 43% in the first quarter to $493 billion, the lowest since 2010. “The new issue loan market was previously a Scoobie Doo ghost town, especially after the bank failures,” said Scott Macklin, director of leveraged loans at AllianceBernstein. “Now loan buyers are returning in droves, though there are few new loans available". What’s more, several banks organizing corporate financing withdrew plans to bring loans to market last month and M&A activity, a big driver of loan sales, has slowed dramatically. It’s not clear how long the trend will last. Loan deals could pick up in the second quarter, as market risk-on sentiment returns as worries surrounding the bank sector fade. The US leveraged loan market has multiple deals with commitments due this week, three of them that emerged on Monday. “M&A may be a use of built-up corporate cash balances, we believe, though a souring economic outlook could temper appetite for deals,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Neil Sipes and Alison Williams wrote in a note on Monday.
Faced with soaring interest rates and market whiplash, companies are turning away from the loan market in a way that hasn’t been seen this decade. Companies are delaying borrowing if they can, given how quickly rates have climbed in recent months, analysts say. Global sales of syndicated loans fell 43% in the first quarter to $493 billion, the lowest since 2010. “The new issue loan market was previously a Scoobie Doo ghost town, especially after the bank failures,” said Scott Macklin, director of leveraged loans at AllianceBernstein. “Now loan buyers are returning in droves, though there are few new loans available". What’s more, several banks organizing corporate financing withdrew plans to bring loans to market last month and M&A activity, a big driver of loan sales, has slowed dramatically. It’s not clear how long the trend will last. Loan deals could pick up in the second quarter, as market risk-on sentiment returns as worries surrounding the bank sector fade. The US leveraged loan market has multiple deals with commitments due this week, three of them that emerged on Monday. “M&A may be a use of built-up corporate cash balances, we believe, though a souring economic outlook could temper appetite for deals,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Neil Sipes and Alison Williams wrote in a note on Monday.
Bottom-line: 미국 경제가 성장하는데 기여가 가장 큰 서비스업 경기가 지속 둔화되고 있으며, 서비스업은 주거 부문을 제외 한 물가지표가 하락하기 9개월 전부터 둔화됐고, 이는 시장 참여자들이 금리에 반영하고 있는 통화정책경로가 중앙은행의 그것보다 나음을 암시함. 생각보다 이르게 올 수 있는 긴축정책의 끝은 채권과 위험자산에 반가운 신호임.
Growth in the service sector turned lower long before inflation began to decline. Service sector growth as measured by the ISM began to dip some 9-months before inflation as measured by CPI minus rent and shelter started falling. The drop in services, the largest contributor to US economic growth suggests markets pricing of the path of interest rates is more accurate than the Fed’s. A welcome sign for bond bulls and eventually risk assets in general as the Fed moves away from QT sooner than later.
Growth in the service sector turned lower long before inflation began to decline. Service sector growth as measured by the ISM began to dip some 9-months before inflation as measured by CPI minus rent and shelter started falling. The drop in services, the largest contributor to US economic growth suggests markets pricing of the path of interest rates is more accurate than the Fed’s. A welcome sign for bond bulls and eventually risk assets in general as the Fed moves away from QT sooner than later.
Bottom-line: 미국 경제와 관련한 지표들이 성장 동력을 상실하고 있단 징후를 보이면서, 채권 투자자들은 인플레이션이 급격히 완화 될 가능성을 기대하고 있음. 시장 참여자들의 물가기대 척도로 볼 수 있는 수단들의 금리가 모두 하락해 지난해 9월 이후 최저 수준에서 거래되고 있고, 제조업 설문과 고용시장 또한 냉각되고 있음. 금요일 고용지표가 이를 다시 한 번 확인 시켜 줄 가능성이 있고, 이에 앞서 서비스업 설문 중 지급 비용 항목은 바이러스 대확산 이후 급등한 폭을 거의 지웠음.
Yields on inflation-linked bonds fell to the lowest since September after data showed the US economy losing momentum, a signal that bond traders still expect price pressures to eventually cool. Ten-year TIPS yields dropped to about 1% on Thursday, down from 1.7% in early March and in line with a decline in similar-maturity Treasury notes. That kept the gap between the two securities — a proxy measuring investors’ inflation expectations — steady at about 2.2%. This week’s ISM manufacturing and service gauges both fell more than expected, underscoring the potential economic damage from failures of regional banks last month. The labor market is also showing signs of softening, with job opening declining and jobless claims edging up. Friday’s payroll report may show job growth is slowing from a brisk pace earlier this year. On the inflation front, there are signs of price pressure is abating. The price-paid component of the ISM service index, for instance, has all but erased the post-pandemic surge.
Yields on inflation-linked bonds fell to the lowest since September after data showed the US economy losing momentum, a signal that bond traders still expect price pressures to eventually cool. Ten-year TIPS yields dropped to about 1% on Thursday, down from 1.7% in early March and in line with a decline in similar-maturity Treasury notes. That kept the gap between the two securities — a proxy measuring investors’ inflation expectations — steady at about 2.2%. This week’s ISM manufacturing and service gauges both fell more than expected, underscoring the potential economic damage from failures of regional banks last month. The labor market is also showing signs of softening, with job opening declining and jobless claims edging up. Friday’s payroll report may show job growth is slowing from a brisk pace earlier this year. On the inflation front, there are signs of price pressure is abating. The price-paid component of the ISM service index, for instance, has all but erased the post-pandemic surge.
Bottom-line: 미국 은행으로부터 시작 된 위기와 경기침체 우려 속에 중앙은행의 통화정책 긴축 주기가 막을 내릴 것이라 예측이 강화되고 있으며, 비록 선진국 경기가 둔화되도 아시아는 그 성장을 달리할 것이란 IMF의 전망이 고무적임. 이를 기반으로 달러를 차입해 신흥국 통화에 투자하는 이른 바 캐리 트레이드가 투자자들 사이에 주류로 다시 부상하고 있음. 신흥국 캐리 트레이드 수익률은 지난 3년간의 손실을 뒤로 하고 올해 +5%의 수익률을 기록했음.
A popular currency trade is back in vogue. Signs that the US economy is slowing down and global interest rates are peaking are setting the stage for investors to revive so-called carry trades in emerging markets. Add in the IMF predicting that developing economies, particularly in Asia, will be a bright spot even as the US slows. A Bloomberg gauge of borrowing dollars and putting the funds into a basket of EM FX has returned almost 5% this year, bouncing back from three years of losses and hitting the highest since 2021. Returns leaped ahead of a developed-market peer index last month as fears of a banking crisis — begun in the US — bolstered bets the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its tightening cycle.
A popular currency trade is back in vogue. Signs that the US economy is slowing down and global interest rates are peaking are setting the stage for investors to revive so-called carry trades in emerging markets. Add in the IMF predicting that developing economies, particularly in Asia, will be a bright spot even as the US slows. A Bloomberg gauge of borrowing dollars and putting the funds into a basket of EM FX has returned almost 5% this year, bouncing back from three years of losses and hitting the highest since 2021. Returns leaped ahead of a developed-market peer index last month as fears of a banking crisis — begun in the US — bolstered bets the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its tightening cycle.
"Never give up, for that is just the place and time that the tide will turn."
- Harriet Beecher Stowe
- Harriet Beecher Stowe
Markets’ first reaction is that this shows the disinflationary process is intact.
Bottom-line: 물가지표 발표 이후 중앙은행의 정책금리 기대를 반영하는 선물시장 가격은 지속 하락함. 2024년 1월 통화정책회의 기준 정책금리는 이전 4.23%에서 현재 4% 미만으로 책정되고 있음.
Fed swaps continue to show easing as soon as the second half after today’s CPI report. Investors also price in a target fed funds rate below 4% for the Jan. 31, 2024 meeting. That’s down from ~4.23% ahead of the report.
Fed swaps continue to show easing as soon as the second half after today’s CPI report. Investors also price in a target fed funds rate below 4% for the Jan. 31, 2024 meeting. That’s down from ~4.23% ahead of the report.