Bottom-line: 미국 경제와 관련한 지표들이 성장 동력을 상실하고 있단 징후를 보이면서, 채권 투자자들은 인플레이션이 급격히 완화 될 가능성을 기대하고 있음. 시장 참여자들의 물가기대 척도로 볼 수 있는 수단들의 금리가 모두 하락해 지난해 9월 이후 최저 수준에서 거래되고 있고, 제조업 설문과 고용시장 또한 냉각되고 있음. 금요일 고용지표가 이를 다시 한 번 확인 시켜 줄 가능성이 있고, 이에 앞서 서비스업 설문 중 지급 비용 항목은 바이러스 대확산 이후 급등한 폭을 거의 지웠음.
Yields on inflation-linked bonds fell to the lowest since September after data showed the US economy losing momentum, a signal that bond traders still expect price pressures to eventually cool. Ten-year TIPS yields dropped to about 1% on Thursday, down from 1.7% in early March and in line with a decline in similar-maturity Treasury notes. That kept the gap between the two securities — a proxy measuring investors’ inflation expectations — steady at about 2.2%. This week’s ISM manufacturing and service gauges both fell more than expected, underscoring the potential economic damage from failures of regional banks last month. The labor market is also showing signs of softening, with job opening declining and jobless claims edging up. Friday’s payroll report may show job growth is slowing from a brisk pace earlier this year. On the inflation front, there are signs of price pressure is abating. The price-paid component of the ISM service index, for instance, has all but erased the post-pandemic surge.
Yields on inflation-linked bonds fell to the lowest since September after data showed the US economy losing momentum, a signal that bond traders still expect price pressures to eventually cool. Ten-year TIPS yields dropped to about 1% on Thursday, down from 1.7% in early March and in line with a decline in similar-maturity Treasury notes. That kept the gap between the two securities — a proxy measuring investors’ inflation expectations — steady at about 2.2%. This week’s ISM manufacturing and service gauges both fell more than expected, underscoring the potential economic damage from failures of regional banks last month. The labor market is also showing signs of softening, with job opening declining and jobless claims edging up. Friday’s payroll report may show job growth is slowing from a brisk pace earlier this year. On the inflation front, there are signs of price pressure is abating. The price-paid component of the ISM service index, for instance, has all but erased the post-pandemic surge.
Bottom-line: 미국 은행으로부터 시작 된 위기와 경기침체 우려 속에 중앙은행의 통화정책 긴축 주기가 막을 내릴 것이라 예측이 강화되고 있으며, 비록 선진국 경기가 둔화되도 아시아는 그 성장을 달리할 것이란 IMF의 전망이 고무적임. 이를 기반으로 달러를 차입해 신흥국 통화에 투자하는 이른 바 캐리 트레이드가 투자자들 사이에 주류로 다시 부상하고 있음. 신흥국 캐리 트레이드 수익률은 지난 3년간의 손실을 뒤로 하고 올해 +5%의 수익률을 기록했음.
A popular currency trade is back in vogue. Signs that the US economy is slowing down and global interest rates are peaking are setting the stage for investors to revive so-called carry trades in emerging markets. Add in the IMF predicting that developing economies, particularly in Asia, will be a bright spot even as the US slows. A Bloomberg gauge of borrowing dollars and putting the funds into a basket of EM FX has returned almost 5% this year, bouncing back from three years of losses and hitting the highest since 2021. Returns leaped ahead of a developed-market peer index last month as fears of a banking crisis — begun in the US — bolstered bets the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its tightening cycle.
A popular currency trade is back in vogue. Signs that the US economy is slowing down and global interest rates are peaking are setting the stage for investors to revive so-called carry trades in emerging markets. Add in the IMF predicting that developing economies, particularly in Asia, will be a bright spot even as the US slows. A Bloomberg gauge of borrowing dollars and putting the funds into a basket of EM FX has returned almost 5% this year, bouncing back from three years of losses and hitting the highest since 2021. Returns leaped ahead of a developed-market peer index last month as fears of a banking crisis — begun in the US — bolstered bets the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its tightening cycle.
"Never give up, for that is just the place and time that the tide will turn."
- Harriet Beecher Stowe
- Harriet Beecher Stowe
Markets’ first reaction is that this shows the disinflationary process is intact.
Bottom-line: 물가지표 발표 이후 중앙은행의 정책금리 기대를 반영하는 선물시장 가격은 지속 하락함. 2024년 1월 통화정책회의 기준 정책금리는 이전 4.23%에서 현재 4% 미만으로 책정되고 있음.
Fed swaps continue to show easing as soon as the second half after today’s CPI report. Investors also price in a target fed funds rate below 4% for the Jan. 31, 2024 meeting. That’s down from ~4.23% ahead of the report.
Fed swaps continue to show easing as soon as the second half after today’s CPI report. Investors also price in a target fed funds rate below 4% for the Jan. 31, 2024 meeting. That’s down from ~4.23% ahead of the report.
Annual inflation moderated across US regions last month, mostly because the figures compared with March 2022, when energy prices spiked immediately after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in New England, with a 3.6% gain from the previous year, and in parts of the Midwest. Mountain states in the West — an area that includes Arizona and Colorado — once again saw the highest inflation of all regions, at 6%.
Bottom-line: 아시아와 유럽의 수요가 회복되고 공장 가동률이 상승함에 따라 중국의 3월 수출이 예상과 다르게 증가함. 이는 경제 전망에 긍정적 기운을 주는 것임.
China’s exports unexpectedly rose in March as demand from most Asian countries and Europe improved and as the nation’s factories resumed production, boosting the economy’s outlook.
China’s exports unexpectedly rose in March as demand from most Asian countries and Europe improved and as the nation’s factories resumed production, boosting the economy’s outlook.
That’s a nice beat on GDP up 4.5% y/y for the first quarter. Only two economists in our poll expected 4.5% or higher.
Tesla Inc. reported first-quarter earnings that just missed analyst estimates after a series of aggressive price cuts squeezed profit margins.