Powell: 신용환경이 압박 받고 있는 것을 금리인상과 유사한 효과로 보는 시각이 있는데, 어느 정도의 신용 긴축이 얼마만큼의 금리인상 폭과 동등한지 측정할 수 없다고 선을 그었음. 다만, 원칙적으로 신용 환경이 더욱 압박받는다면 금리를 더 올릴 필요가 없는 것은 맞다고 답함. 그렇기 때문에 대출 태도에 대한 다양한 지표를 보면서 그것을 금리결정에 반영할 것이라 함.
Powell: 인플레이션을 통제하기 위해 충분히 높은 금리에 도달했는지 여부를 명확히 하진 않았으며, 다만, 2%의 목표 인플레이션을 향하는 길이 순조롭진 않을 것이라 함. 이 과정에서 경기침체를 정말 피할 수 있겠냐는 질문에, 이번에는 그럴 수 있을 것 같다고 답함.
Docent: 재량적 투자자와 정해진 원칙에 따라 투자되는 알고리즘 투자 간의 간극, 그리고 변동성에 대한 도슨트임. 도이치뱅크의 자료에 따르면 재량적 투자(일반적으로 펀드 매니저)와 알고리즘 투자(Risk Parity, Vol-Control, CTA)간 주식 비중이 상반된 상태며, 그 간극이 2019년 중순 이후 최고치에 달하고 있음. 이 지표만으로도 현재 시장이 얼마나 어려운 국면인지 알 수 있지만, S&P 500 지수가 고점과 저점을 연결했을 때 낙폭의 50%를 회복한 수준인 4,155포인트에서 50포인트 범위로 5주 연속 횡보했다는 사실도 더할 수 있음. 기계적 투자의 경우 추세와 변동성을 기준으로 삼고, 재량적 투자는 경제 환경이나 기업 이익을 기준으로 삼기 때문에 지금의 대칭적 구조가 된 것이며, 만일 재량적 투자자들의 우려대로 기업 이익이 부실하거나 경제와 관련 된 불확실성이 대두될 경우 변동성 지수(VIX Index)가 다시 높아질 것임. 이 경우 기계적 투자에서 주식 비중을 확대했던 낮은 변동성이란 조건이 제거 되면서 그동안 쌓았던 주식 비중을 매도할 위험이 있음. 골드만삭스의 경우 이 위험에 대비하는 것이 좋을 것이며, 하방위험을 고려할 때 옵션을 매수하는 것도 좋은 방법이라 조언함.
As evidence of how hard it is to get a handle on markets right now, consider the diverging postures of human and computer-guided investors, by one definition the widest in four years. Quant traders — those allocating assets based on momentum and volatility signals — have been forced into a buying spree, thanks to muted price swings and resilience in equities. For the first time since December 2021, their stock exposure rose above neutral readings, according to data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG. By contrast, discretionary investors who use economic and earnings trends to guide their decisions have kept bailing in the face of a multi-month advance, with positioning hovering near a one-year low. In a sign of trader indecision, the S&P 500 has closed within 50 points of the 4,155 level for five straight weeks. That’s a threshold that shows the market recouping half of its losses from last year’s bruising selloff. Goldman Sachs is urging investors to cushion themselves from the possibility of increased volatility in the next few months as Wall Street quants dive back into US stocks. Quant investors have swooped into equities as strong first-quarter earnings and resilient growth in the US has kept a lid on volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index (ticker VIX) has been below the 20 level since late March. This has pushed the exposure of systematic investors to above neutral for the first time since December 2021, according to Deutsche Bank calculations. But because of this increased participation by quants, analysts at Goldman Sachs are now cautioning that stock prices are becoming more prone to sudden selloffs. The approaching debt-ceiling deadline and concerns about the stability of the US banks could also be triggers for increased stock-market volatility, according to the team of analysts including Christian Mueller-Glissmann. The team says that buying options to protect against sudden pressure on prices is a good idea, as these issues could flare up in the next few months.
As evidence of how hard it is to get a handle on markets right now, consider the diverging postures of human and computer-guided investors, by one definition the widest in four years. Quant traders — those allocating assets based on momentum and volatility signals — have been forced into a buying spree, thanks to muted price swings and resilience in equities. For the first time since December 2021, their stock exposure rose above neutral readings, according to data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG. By contrast, discretionary investors who use economic and earnings trends to guide their decisions have kept bailing in the face of a multi-month advance, with positioning hovering near a one-year low. In a sign of trader indecision, the S&P 500 has closed within 50 points of the 4,155 level for five straight weeks. That’s a threshold that shows the market recouping half of its losses from last year’s bruising selloff. Goldman Sachs is urging investors to cushion themselves from the possibility of increased volatility in the next few months as Wall Street quants dive back into US stocks. Quant investors have swooped into equities as strong first-quarter earnings and resilient growth in the US has kept a lid on volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index (ticker VIX) has been below the 20 level since late March. This has pushed the exposure of systematic investors to above neutral for the first time since December 2021, according to Deutsche Bank calculations. But because of this increased participation by quants, analysts at Goldman Sachs are now cautioning that stock prices are becoming more prone to sudden selloffs. The approaching debt-ceiling deadline and concerns about the stability of the US banks could also be triggers for increased stock-market volatility, according to the team of analysts including Christian Mueller-Glissmann. The team says that buying options to protect against sudden pressure on prices is a good idea, as these issues could flare up in the next few months.
Bottom-line: 이번 물가지표 상승에 주택 부문의 기여가 크지만, 중앙은행이 이 부문을 제외 한 물가를 따로 보듯, 후행하는 항목이란 점이 핵심임.
The biggest contributor to the gain in prices for April was housing. But remember that this is a lagging indicator -- the statisticians are only now incorporating changes in rates that happened months ago, back to 2022. That’s one reason why Powell looks at a core gauge, excluding housing.
The biggest contributor to the gain in prices for April was housing. But remember that this is a lagging indicator -- the statisticians are only now incorporating changes in rates that happened months ago, back to 2022. That’s one reason why Powell looks at a core gauge, excluding housing.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행 파월 의장이 가장 눈여겨보는 핵심 물가 지표는 3월 월간 0.4% 상승에서 4월 월간 0.1% 상승으로 물가 상승폭이 둔화 됨.
Application specialist Owen Minde shows us a breakdown of month-over-month that Supercore CPI figure (i.e., core services excluding rent of primary residence and owners equivalent rent of residence). The April number is +0.1%, down from +0.4% in March.
Application specialist Owen Minde shows us a breakdown of month-over-month that Supercore CPI figure (i.e., core services excluding rent of primary residence and owners equivalent rent of residence). The April number is +0.1%, down from +0.4% in March.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 가장 선호하는 핵심물가지표의 전년 대비 상승률도 3월 5.8% 증가에서 4월 5.1% 증가로 둔화됨. 이는 항공을 포함한 운송 부문 기여도 하락 때문임.
Supercore year-on-year comes down significantly from 5.8% to 5.1 in April, application specialist Owen Minde notes, largely due to airline base effects bringing down the ‘Transportation’ contribution from 3% to 2.5%.
Supercore year-on-year comes down significantly from 5.8% to 5.1 in April, application specialist Owen Minde notes, largely due to airline base effects bringing down the ‘Transportation’ contribution from 3% to 2.5%.
Bottom-line: 중국 정부가 외국인 투자를 유치하려는 목표를 압박하기도 하지만, 실제 투자 유치를 통해 돌파구를 마련해야 하는 중국 기업들도 많은 상태, 때문에 중국 기업들은 올해 외국인 투자를 유치하기 위한 다양한 활동을 하고 있음. 불행히도 투자자들은 예측 불가능한 영역의 중국 정책 변화와 경제 성장에 대한 의구심으로 투자를 조심하고 있음.
China’s unpredictable policy making is deterring foreign investment that the country’s cash-strapped cities are desperate to entice. Local officials are cold calling foreign entrepreneurs and bringing roadshows overseas as they seek to bolster coffers depleted by years of pandemic spending and a cratering property market. They also face pressure from the central government to boost investment in what the commerce ministry has dubbed the “Year of Investing in China". Their efforts are being met with a lukewarm reception from business communities outside China. While memorandums of understanding have been signed and some deals announced, many potential investors remain cautious about the country’s economic growth and wary of unexpected policy shifts.
China’s unpredictable policy making is deterring foreign investment that the country’s cash-strapped cities are desperate to entice. Local officials are cold calling foreign entrepreneurs and bringing roadshows overseas as they seek to bolster coffers depleted by years of pandemic spending and a cratering property market. They also face pressure from the central government to boost investment in what the commerce ministry has dubbed the “Year of Investing in China". Their efforts are being met with a lukewarm reception from business communities outside China. While memorandums of understanding have been signed and some deals announced, many potential investors remain cautious about the country’s economic growth and wary of unexpected policy shifts.