Docent: 재량적 투자자와 정해진 원칙에 따라 투자되는 알고리즘 투자 간의 간극, 그리고 변동성에 대한 도슨트임. 도이치뱅크의 자료에 따르면 재량적 투자(일반적으로 펀드 매니저)와 알고리즘 투자(Risk Parity, Vol-Control, CTA)간 주식 비중이 상반된 상태며, 그 간극이 2019년 중순 이후 최고치에 달하고 있음. 이 지표만으로도 현재 시장이 얼마나 어려운 국면인지 알 수 있지만, S&P 500 지수가 고점과 저점을 연결했을 때 낙폭의 50%를 회복한 수준인 4,155포인트에서 50포인트 범위로 5주 연속 횡보했다는 사실도 더할 수 있음. 기계적 투자의 경우 추세와 변동성을 기준으로 삼고, 재량적 투자는 경제 환경이나 기업 이익을 기준으로 삼기 때문에 지금의 대칭적 구조가 된 것이며, 만일 재량적 투자자들의 우려대로 기업 이익이 부실하거나 경제와 관련 된 불확실성이 대두될 경우 변동성 지수(VIX Index)가 다시 높아질 것임. 이 경우 기계적 투자에서 주식 비중을 확대했던 낮은 변동성이란 조건이 제거 되면서 그동안 쌓았던 주식 비중을 매도할 위험이 있음. 골드만삭스의 경우 이 위험에 대비하는 것이 좋을 것이며, 하방위험을 고려할 때 옵션을 매수하는 것도 좋은 방법이라 조언함.
As evidence of how hard it is to get a handle on markets right now, consider the diverging postures of human and computer-guided investors, by one definition the widest in four years. Quant traders — those allocating assets based on momentum and volatility signals — have been forced into a buying spree, thanks to muted price swings and resilience in equities. For the first time since December 2021, their stock exposure rose above neutral readings, according to data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG. By contrast, discretionary investors who use economic and earnings trends to guide their decisions have kept bailing in the face of a multi-month advance, with positioning hovering near a one-year low. In a sign of trader indecision, the S&P 500 has closed within 50 points of the 4,155 level for five straight weeks. That’s a threshold that shows the market recouping half of its losses from last year’s bruising selloff. Goldman Sachs is urging investors to cushion themselves from the possibility of increased volatility in the next few months as Wall Street quants dive back into US stocks. Quant investors have swooped into equities as strong first-quarter earnings and resilient growth in the US has kept a lid on volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index (ticker VIX) has been below the 20 level since late March. This has pushed the exposure of systematic investors to above neutral for the first time since December 2021, according to Deutsche Bank calculations. But because of this increased participation by quants, analysts at Goldman Sachs are now cautioning that stock prices are becoming more prone to sudden selloffs. The approaching debt-ceiling deadline and concerns about the stability of the US banks could also be triggers for increased stock-market volatility, according to the team of analysts including Christian Mueller-Glissmann. The team says that buying options to protect against sudden pressure on prices is a good idea, as these issues could flare up in the next few months.
As evidence of how hard it is to get a handle on markets right now, consider the diverging postures of human and computer-guided investors, by one definition the widest in four years. Quant traders — those allocating assets based on momentum and volatility signals — have been forced into a buying spree, thanks to muted price swings and resilience in equities. For the first time since December 2021, their stock exposure rose above neutral readings, according to data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG. By contrast, discretionary investors who use economic and earnings trends to guide their decisions have kept bailing in the face of a multi-month advance, with positioning hovering near a one-year low. In a sign of trader indecision, the S&P 500 has closed within 50 points of the 4,155 level for five straight weeks. That’s a threshold that shows the market recouping half of its losses from last year’s bruising selloff. Goldman Sachs is urging investors to cushion themselves from the possibility of increased volatility in the next few months as Wall Street quants dive back into US stocks. Quant investors have swooped into equities as strong first-quarter earnings and resilient growth in the US has kept a lid on volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index (ticker VIX) has been below the 20 level since late March. This has pushed the exposure of systematic investors to above neutral for the first time since December 2021, according to Deutsche Bank calculations. But because of this increased participation by quants, analysts at Goldman Sachs are now cautioning that stock prices are becoming more prone to sudden selloffs. The approaching debt-ceiling deadline and concerns about the stability of the US banks could also be triggers for increased stock-market volatility, according to the team of analysts including Christian Mueller-Glissmann. The team says that buying options to protect against sudden pressure on prices is a good idea, as these issues could flare up in the next few months.
Bottom-line: 이번 물가지표 상승에 주택 부문의 기여가 크지만, 중앙은행이 이 부문을 제외 한 물가를 따로 보듯, 후행하는 항목이란 점이 핵심임.
The biggest contributor to the gain in prices for April was housing. But remember that this is a lagging indicator -- the statisticians are only now incorporating changes in rates that happened months ago, back to 2022. That’s one reason why Powell looks at a core gauge, excluding housing.
The biggest contributor to the gain in prices for April was housing. But remember that this is a lagging indicator -- the statisticians are only now incorporating changes in rates that happened months ago, back to 2022. That’s one reason why Powell looks at a core gauge, excluding housing.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행 파월 의장이 가장 눈여겨보는 핵심 물가 지표는 3월 월간 0.4% 상승에서 4월 월간 0.1% 상승으로 물가 상승폭이 둔화 됨.
Application specialist Owen Minde shows us a breakdown of month-over-month that Supercore CPI figure (i.e., core services excluding rent of primary residence and owners equivalent rent of residence). The April number is +0.1%, down from +0.4% in March.
Application specialist Owen Minde shows us a breakdown of month-over-month that Supercore CPI figure (i.e., core services excluding rent of primary residence and owners equivalent rent of residence). The April number is +0.1%, down from +0.4% in March.
Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 가장 선호하는 핵심물가지표의 전년 대비 상승률도 3월 5.8% 증가에서 4월 5.1% 증가로 둔화됨. 이는 항공을 포함한 운송 부문 기여도 하락 때문임.
Supercore year-on-year comes down significantly from 5.8% to 5.1 in April, application specialist Owen Minde notes, largely due to airline base effects bringing down the ‘Transportation’ contribution from 3% to 2.5%.
Supercore year-on-year comes down significantly from 5.8% to 5.1 in April, application specialist Owen Minde notes, largely due to airline base effects bringing down the ‘Transportation’ contribution from 3% to 2.5%.
Bottom-line: 중국 정부가 외국인 투자를 유치하려는 목표를 압박하기도 하지만, 실제 투자 유치를 통해 돌파구를 마련해야 하는 중국 기업들도 많은 상태, 때문에 중국 기업들은 올해 외국인 투자를 유치하기 위한 다양한 활동을 하고 있음. 불행히도 투자자들은 예측 불가능한 영역의 중국 정책 변화와 경제 성장에 대한 의구심으로 투자를 조심하고 있음.
China’s unpredictable policy making is deterring foreign investment that the country’s cash-strapped cities are desperate to entice. Local officials are cold calling foreign entrepreneurs and bringing roadshows overseas as they seek to bolster coffers depleted by years of pandemic spending and a cratering property market. They also face pressure from the central government to boost investment in what the commerce ministry has dubbed the “Year of Investing in China". Their efforts are being met with a lukewarm reception from business communities outside China. While memorandums of understanding have been signed and some deals announced, many potential investors remain cautious about the country’s economic growth and wary of unexpected policy shifts.
China’s unpredictable policy making is deterring foreign investment that the country’s cash-strapped cities are desperate to entice. Local officials are cold calling foreign entrepreneurs and bringing roadshows overseas as they seek to bolster coffers depleted by years of pandemic spending and a cratering property market. They also face pressure from the central government to boost investment in what the commerce ministry has dubbed the “Year of Investing in China". Their efforts are being met with a lukewarm reception from business communities outside China. While memorandums of understanding have been signed and some deals announced, many potential investors remain cautious about the country’s economic growth and wary of unexpected policy shifts.
Bottom-line: 타이거 글로벌 자산운용에서 투자 중인 비상장 자산들의 수익 실현이 어려워짐에 따라, 2차 시장에서 매각을 검토 중인 것으로 알려짐. 연 초 기준 510억 달러 상당의 자산이 신생 기업에 투자되어 있는 것으로 알려졌는데, 이와 같은 자산들을 매각하기 위해 최근 자문 인력을 고용함. 이같은 문제는 동종의 업계 운용사들이 동일하게 겪고 있으며, 그 어떤 시기보다 어려운 도전에 직면해 있다고 할 수 있음. 이들은 신생 기업들에 많은 돈을 빠르게 투입하며 기업 가치를 크게 높여놨지만, 기술주 중심의 타격 속에 큰 피해를 입은 상태임. 해당 운용사도 작년 투자한 신생 기업들의 가치를 33% 상각했으며, 상장되는 기업들 수도 줄어듬에 따라 2차 시장을 통한 출구 전략을 고려하고 있음. 이는 자금을 재분배하거나 빠른 시일 내 회복이 어려울 것으로 보이는 회사를 매각하기 위한 방법으로 판단되고 있음.
Tiger Global Management is seeking to offload hundreds of millions of dollars worth of private companies into the secondary market, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The vast majority of assets at Chase Coleman’s firm, which managed $51 billion at the beginning of the year, is in startups. The investment firm has hired an adviser to explore options to sell a portion of that, the Financial Times reported Sunday. Like many of its peers, Tiger Global is grappling with one of the most challenging periods that venture investors have faced in years. They poured money at a rapid pace into splashy startups, bidding up their valuations, only to get burned in last year’s tech swoon. Tiger Global marked down its venture investments by about 33% last year, resulting in a $23 billion decline in value. Now, as fewer companies are going public, investors are turning to the secondary market to find an exit. They may seek liquidity for several reasons: to provide distributions to clients, fund add-on investments to existing portfolio companies or to ditch companies they don’t believe will bounce back fast enough. Tiger Global has invested in hundreds of venture-backed companies, including ByteDance, Snyk, Discord and Chime.
Tiger Global Management is seeking to offload hundreds of millions of dollars worth of private companies into the secondary market, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The vast majority of assets at Chase Coleman’s firm, which managed $51 billion at the beginning of the year, is in startups. The investment firm has hired an adviser to explore options to sell a portion of that, the Financial Times reported Sunday. Like many of its peers, Tiger Global is grappling with one of the most challenging periods that venture investors have faced in years. They poured money at a rapid pace into splashy startups, bidding up their valuations, only to get burned in last year’s tech swoon. Tiger Global marked down its venture investments by about 33% last year, resulting in a $23 billion decline in value. Now, as fewer companies are going public, investors are turning to the secondary market to find an exit. They may seek liquidity for several reasons: to provide distributions to clients, fund add-on investments to existing portfolio companies or to ditch companies they don’t believe will bounce back fast enough. Tiger Global has invested in hundreds of venture-backed companies, including ByteDance, Snyk, Discord and Chime.
Bottom-line: 홈디포는 부진한 실적 발표와 함께 올해 매출 성장에 대한 전망을 당초 전년과 유사하다 했던 것과 달리 전년 대비 -5% 감소로 정정함. 과거 주택 가격 상승과 각종 보조금 지급, 바이러스 대확산으로 인해 주거지에 머무르는 시간 증가가 복합적으로 만든 폭발적인 인테리어 수요가 성장을 견인했다면, 근래는 물가 및 금리 상승 속에 소비자 수요가 크게 둔화되고 있기 때문이라 설명했음.
Home Depot Inc. cut its outlook for the year after first-quarter sales dropped more than expected, a sign that economic uncertainty is leading to a pullback in home improvement spending. Comparable sales are now forecast to decline as much as 5% this year, following a bad start to the year affected by lumber deflation and poor weather, the company said Tuesday. Home Depot, which previously predicted sales would remain flat this year, said demand is softening more than it had expected. The first-quarter results show the company’s performance is starting to lag after several years of soaring home-improvement spending that was sparked by a booming housing market and stimulus payments that let consumers invest in their homes during pandemic restrictions. That binge has now begun to slow amid rising inflation and interest rates.
Home Depot Inc. cut its outlook for the year after first-quarter sales dropped more than expected, a sign that economic uncertainty is leading to a pullback in home improvement spending. Comparable sales are now forecast to decline as much as 5% this year, following a bad start to the year affected by lumber deflation and poor weather, the company said Tuesday. Home Depot, which previously predicted sales would remain flat this year, said demand is softening more than it had expected. The first-quarter results show the company’s performance is starting to lag after several years of soaring home-improvement spending that was sparked by a booming housing market and stimulus payments that let consumers invest in their homes during pandemic restrictions. That binge has now begun to slow amid rising inflation and interest rates.
Bottom-line: 소매판매 지표는 여러 측면에서 경기침체라는 저승사자가 문 앞에 서성이고 있지 않단걸 알려줬지만, 마찬가지 금리인하 또한 눈 앞에 있지 않단 사실을 알려줌. 그러므로 누가 이 지표를 기뻐할까 의문을 가지는 것임.
Well, I guess some more of the recessionary concerns have been assuaged. While headline retail sales were lower than expected at +0.4% (vs a forecast rise of 0.8%), the important core aggregates such as control-group sales handily bested expectations, rising 0.7%. Meanwhile, the revisions were revised again, though the aggregate impact looks relatively modest. The three-month annualized gain in control-group sales is 4.7% -- so much for negative growth!-- which hardly suggests that consumers have hit a brick wall and that the economic Grim Reaper is at the door. Is it enough to entice the Fed to hike again? No, but it certainly suggests that rate cuts are far, far from an imminent prospect, which is not welcome news to anyone trading like they are.
Well, I guess some more of the recessionary concerns have been assuaged. While headline retail sales were lower than expected at +0.4% (vs a forecast rise of 0.8%), the important core aggregates such as control-group sales handily bested expectations, rising 0.7%. Meanwhile, the revisions were revised again, though the aggregate impact looks relatively modest. The three-month annualized gain in control-group sales is 4.7% -- so much for negative growth!-- which hardly suggests that consumers have hit a brick wall and that the economic Grim Reaper is at the door. Is it enough to entice the Fed to hike again? No, but it certainly suggests that rate cuts are far, far from an imminent prospect, which is not welcome news to anyone trading like they are.