이번 통화정책회의에서 금리인상을 잠시 중지한 것은 지난 여름 기간에 긴축의 대부분이 시행(much of the tightening took place last summer)되었기 때문에 그 영향을 지켜보겠다는 뜻( think that some of that may come into effect” going forward)임.
근데, 그 시차가 어떻게 되는지에 대해서는 'Don't know'.
근데, 그 시차가 어떻게 되는지에 대해서는 'Don't know'.
Powell: 일부 경제지표는 방향성을 가지고 있다는 점을 감안할 때, 중앙은행이 원하는 곳으로 가고 있음에도 추가 금리인상을 지지하는 이유에 대한 질문을 받음. 그는 인플레이션의 초기는 유동성이 풍부한 상태에서 상품 수요가 견인한 것이지만, 작금의 노동시장이나 임금과는 큰 관련이 없다는 점을 강조함. 이는 시장 분석가들도 이제는 인플레이션을 낮추기 위해 노동시장 과열이 해소되어야 한다는 것과 궤를 같이 함.
Up next, a question on given that some data trends are in place, why signal additional rate hikes, if things are going in the direction Fed would like to see? Powell says inflation at the beginning of this cycle it was about strong demand for goods at a time when people were sitting at home and had plenty of money in the bank. It wasn’t really related to the labor market or wages, he says. As things go on, though, “many” analysts see the need for the labor market to ease up in order to bring down inflation.
Up next, a question on given that some data trends are in place, why signal additional rate hikes, if things are going in the direction Fed would like to see? Powell says inflation at the beginning of this cycle it was about strong demand for goods at a time when people were sitting at home and had plenty of money in the bank. It wasn’t really related to the labor market or wages, he says. As things go on, though, “many” analysts see the need for the labor market to ease up in order to bring down inflation.
Bottom-line: 이번 유럽 중앙은행의 통화정책회의는 25bp 금리인상으로 결정됐으며, 7월에도 한 차례를 금리인상을 할 것으로 보임. 금리인상 중단에 대해서는 생각치 않으며, 인플레이션은 너무 오래도록 너무 높게 유지 될 위협을 보고 있음.
Lagarde says July rate hike ‘very likely’ after ECB raises forecasts. Says ECB hasn’t started thinking about pausing hikes. ECB says inflation still ‘projected to remain too high for too long’. ECB also confirms end of APP reinvestments in July.
Lagarde says July rate hike ‘very likely’ after ECB raises forecasts. Says ECB hasn’t started thinking about pausing hikes. ECB says inflation still ‘projected to remain too high for too long’. ECB also confirms end of APP reinvestments in July.
Bottom-line: 중국 내 많은 투자자들이 재량에 의해 주식을 선별하는 매니저들로부터 실망을 한 뒤 계량에 근거에 기계적으로 투자하는 펀드로 몰리고 있고, 다수 운용사들이 이 수요에 대응해 해당 전략의 비중을 높이고 있음. 7억 달러 이상의 운용자산을 가진 110개 펀드를 기반할 때, 5월 12일까지 6개월 간 재량 펀드의 수익률 +7.4% 대비 알고리즘 펀드는 +10%의 수익률을 기록했다고 함. 독보적 인기를 가진 스타 매니저에 대한 언급은 사라지고 재량적 펀드 운용에 회의적이게 됐지만, 수익자들은 그 기간동안 계량에 근거하는 투자에 믿음을 가지게 됐음. 또한 이런 알고리즘 투자는 그 안에서도 다양한 전략을 동시에 사용함으로써 성과를 냈으며, 향후 펀드 매니저들은 이런 다중전략으로 우열을 가리게 될 것이라 분석함. 매수 위주(Long-only), 시장중립, 이벤트 드리븐, 추세추종매매를 포함하는 다중전략은 매 년 성과를 내며 계량적 투자의 성배와도 같은 대우를 받고 있음.
Hedge funds that deploy a basket of computer algorithms for trading are gaining popularity in China after many investors got burned by human stock pickers. Firms including Shanghai Black Wing Asset Management Co. and Shanghai Minghong Investment Management Co. are among those ramping up multi-strategy quant offerings to tap growing investor demand. A key sector underpinning quants’ out-performance has been equities, where managers generated a 10% return in six months to May 12, beating active funds’ 7.4% advance, according to Shenzhen PaiPaiWang Investment & Management Co. data of 110 stock-focused hedge funds managing at least 5 billion yuan ($700 million). “Discussions about star managers have faded” over the past two years, Howbuy said in an April 27 report. “Investors are starting to develop a belief in quants, while becoming skeptical toward active management“. The out-performance of quants since last year has “put multi-strategy in the spotlight,” said Yi Weidong, general manager of custody at China Merchants Securities Co., the largest custodian for hedge funds. “Multi-strategy will become the next battlefield for fund managers“. “Multi-strategy is like the holy grail of quant investing,” Black Wing Chief Strategist Wang Jun said. Competitor Shanghai Minghong is seizing the opportunity to raise money for its Multi-strategy No. 1 fund, which returned an annual 18.1% before fees since inception in 2015. The company declined to specify a fund-raising target. The product, which combines long-only, market-neutral, event-driven and commodities strategies, has delivered gains every year.
Hedge funds that deploy a basket of computer algorithms for trading are gaining popularity in China after many investors got burned by human stock pickers. Firms including Shanghai Black Wing Asset Management Co. and Shanghai Minghong Investment Management Co. are among those ramping up multi-strategy quant offerings to tap growing investor demand. A key sector underpinning quants’ out-performance has been equities, where managers generated a 10% return in six months to May 12, beating active funds’ 7.4% advance, according to Shenzhen PaiPaiWang Investment & Management Co. data of 110 stock-focused hedge funds managing at least 5 billion yuan ($700 million). “Discussions about star managers have faded” over the past two years, Howbuy said in an April 27 report. “Investors are starting to develop a belief in quants, while becoming skeptical toward active management“. The out-performance of quants since last year has “put multi-strategy in the spotlight,” said Yi Weidong, general manager of custody at China Merchants Securities Co., the largest custodian for hedge funds. “Multi-strategy will become the next battlefield for fund managers“. “Multi-strategy is like the holy grail of quant investing,” Black Wing Chief Strategist Wang Jun said. Competitor Shanghai Minghong is seizing the opportunity to raise money for its Multi-strategy No. 1 fund, which returned an annual 18.1% before fees since inception in 2015. The company declined to specify a fund-raising target. The product, which combines long-only, market-neutral, event-driven and commodities strategies, has delivered gains every year.
Bottom-line: 1969년 이후 신흥국 강세를 분석해보면, i) 선진국 대비 신흥국의 더 나은 경제성장률, ii) S&P 500 지수에 대한 낮지만 양의 수익률 기대, iii) 원자재 가격 상승, iv) 달러 약세, v) 낮은 상태의 상대 가치가 충족된 상태에서 발생했음. 현재 이 중 세 가지 조건(낮은 상대 가치, S&P 500 지수에 대한 낮은 기대 수익률, 원자재 가격 상승 추이)을 갖추고 있지만, 선진국 대비 더 나은 성장률 차이와 달러 약세에 대해서는 자신이 없음. 거시적 환경의 낙관을 제외하고, 미시적 환경에서 기업을 바라보면 선진국의 다국적 기업과 신흥국 기업 간 경쟁에서 더 나은 이익과 높은 이익률을 유지할 수 있을지 의문이며, 이것이 장기 경쟁력에 악영향을 미칠 것임. 올해 하반기 신흥국이 선진국 대비 더 우월한 성과를 잠시 낼 수 있는 환경을 기대하지만, 신흥국 지수를 구성하는 중국 제외 나머지 비중이 큰 국가(한국, 대만, 인도)의 경우 성과에 장기적 역풍이 될 것으로 봄. 선진국으로의 수출보다 선진국에서의 수입이 더 빠르게 증가하며, 선진국 기업들보다 해당 국가의 기업들 이익이 더 빠르게 성장하지도 않기 때문임.
The six major EM Super-cycles since 1969 suggest bull trends are marked by five common traits: (1) rising EM growth differentials, (2) Low, but positive S&P 500 returns, (3) rising commodity prices, (4) a weakening US Dollar, and (5) low starting relative valuations. Interest rate trends are less clear. Of these five traits, three are met currently (low valuations and expectations of low S&P 500 returns with rising commodity prices). But our forecasts also point to a lower growth differential for EM (on a float-cap weighted basis) in 2024 and an unclear path for USD depreciation in the short term. Macro Optimism, but Micro Concern. Much of our top-down research has presented bullish arguments for EM long-term, but a structural challenge to EM equities has been margin underperformance against DM. Trade data provides a top-down look at EM vs. DM competition through the lens of "trade share" (the share of EM imports that come from other EM economies vs. DMs). Recent trade data trends have been encouraging, but the longer-term trends of bottom-up revenue and profit margin data suggest EM companies face an uphill challenge in competing against DM multinationals. Similar to our views on the US Dollar, we see an environment conducive to a mini-cycle of EM outperformance perhaps later in 2023, but the current construction of MSCI EM present long-term headwinds. Outside of Mainland China, the three largest EM weights (Korea, Taiwan, and India) are markets where imports have grown faster from DMs than from other EMs and where DM corporate revenues have grown faster than domestic EM companies. Short-term cyclical improvement (in global industrials and tech) may benefit EM margins tactically and lead to headline MSCI EM outperformance, but this research furthers our view that EM benchmarks may benefit from restructuring (similar to our views regarding EM ex-China).
The six major EM Super-cycles since 1969 suggest bull trends are marked by five common traits: (1) rising EM growth differentials, (2) Low, but positive S&P 500 returns, (3) rising commodity prices, (4) a weakening US Dollar, and (5) low starting relative valuations. Interest rate trends are less clear. Of these five traits, three are met currently (low valuations and expectations of low S&P 500 returns with rising commodity prices). But our forecasts also point to a lower growth differential for EM (on a float-cap weighted basis) in 2024 and an unclear path for USD depreciation in the short term. Macro Optimism, but Micro Concern. Much of our top-down research has presented bullish arguments for EM long-term, but a structural challenge to EM equities has been margin underperformance against DM. Trade data provides a top-down look at EM vs. DM competition through the lens of "trade share" (the share of EM imports that come from other EM economies vs. DMs). Recent trade data trends have been encouraging, but the longer-term trends of bottom-up revenue and profit margin data suggest EM companies face an uphill challenge in competing against DM multinationals. Similar to our views on the US Dollar, we see an environment conducive to a mini-cycle of EM outperformance perhaps later in 2023, but the current construction of MSCI EM present long-term headwinds. Outside of Mainland China, the three largest EM weights (Korea, Taiwan, and India) are markets where imports have grown faster from DMs than from other EMs and where DM corporate revenues have grown faster than domestic EM companies. Short-term cyclical improvement (in global industrials and tech) may benefit EM margins tactically and lead to headline MSCI EM outperformance, but this research furthers our view that EM benchmarks may benefit from restructuring (similar to our views regarding EM ex-China).
• Key Speaks this week
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Tuesday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Tuesday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual congressional testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee, Thursday
Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Friday
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Tuesday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Tuesday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual congressional testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee, Thursday
Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Friday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity this week to clarify what many found a confusing message on the path of interest rates, with the added task of assuring Democrats and Republicans the economy is on track.
Bottom-line: 여성의 인권에 대해 지속적으로 다루고 있는 골드만삭스의 이번 보고서를 소개함. 2008년 처음 이 보고서를 발간한 뒤 현재까지 많은 곳에서 여성의 노동참여율, 교육, 그리고 임금 격차 부문에서 발전이 있었지만, 단순히 성별만에 따른 차이은 지속되고 있음. 지속되는 노동인구 감소 속에 여성의 노동참여를 적극 활용할 뿐 아니라, 충분한 보상을 한다면 선진국과 신흥국 모두 경제성장률을 5%~6% 사이까지 끌어올릴 수 있음. 다만, 다양한 노력과 진전에도 불구하고 인도의 경우 여성의 노동 참여율은 더 떨어졌고, 한국과 일본의 성별 간 임금 격차는 줄었지만 여전히 그 어떤 곳보다 큰 차이를 유지하고 있음. 정치와 경제에서 여성이 이끄는 조직이 많아졌지만, 해당 조직의 요직은 여전히 남성들이 지배하고 있음. 인공지능의 발달에 따른 위협도 새롭게 대두되고 있지만, 이를 잘 활용한다면 특히 여성이 집중되어 있는 대면 상호 관계, 돌봄과 같은 직군에서는 더 나은 발전이 있을 것이라 생각함.
We wrote the first paper on Women Hold Up Half the Sky in 2008, stating at the time that the old Chinese proverb was more aspiration than fact. In developed and developing countries alike, gender gaps persist in education, health, work, wages and political participation. Looking at these issues afresh, we find that shrinking working age populations mean that it is now more important than ever to utilise the full resources women have to offer (and to reward them fully). We estimate that even just halving the pay and employment gap between men and women could raise the level of GDP across DM and EM by between 5% and 6%. We have seen plenty of progress over the past 15 years – especially with respect to education and labour force participation – but we also see persistent gaps. Despite recording stellar GDP growth, India, which already had low female labour force participation, has seen it fall further. Japan and Korea have seen their pay gaps fall, but these gaps remain notably higher than elsewhere. Women are moving into positions of leadership in politics and business. But, as with much of the recent progress, it is slow, and representation at the very top remains elusive. Men account for 92% of CEOs in large-cap listed DM companies and 94% in EM-listed companies. New challenges have emerged as well. The jobs that our economists assume will be most impacted by AI also tend to be held by women rather than men: ~60-70% of the workforce in these areas are women. That said, roles that require a high degree of face-to-face interaction, or caring professions – both areas where women dominate – are likely to be made more productive via AI and are unlikely to be supplanted by it.
We wrote the first paper on Women Hold Up Half the Sky in 2008, stating at the time that the old Chinese proverb was more aspiration than fact. In developed and developing countries alike, gender gaps persist in education, health, work, wages and political participation. Looking at these issues afresh, we find that shrinking working age populations mean that it is now more important than ever to utilise the full resources women have to offer (and to reward them fully). We estimate that even just halving the pay and employment gap between men and women could raise the level of GDP across DM and EM by between 5% and 6%. We have seen plenty of progress over the past 15 years – especially with respect to education and labour force participation – but we also see persistent gaps. Despite recording stellar GDP growth, India, which already had low female labour force participation, has seen it fall further. Japan and Korea have seen their pay gaps fall, but these gaps remain notably higher than elsewhere. Women are moving into positions of leadership in politics and business. But, as with much of the recent progress, it is slow, and representation at the very top remains elusive. Men account for 92% of CEOs in large-cap listed DM companies and 94% in EM-listed companies. New challenges have emerged as well. The jobs that our economists assume will be most impacted by AI also tend to be held by women rather than men: ~60-70% of the workforce in these areas are women. That said, roles that require a high degree of face-to-face interaction, or caring professions – both areas where women dominate – are likely to be made more productive via AI and are unlikely to be supplanted by it.
Bottom-line: 다극주의 세계(a Multipolar World)는 미국국가정보위원회가 사용한 용어로, 모건스탠리는 점점 진해지는 다극주의 시대에 대한 보고서를 발간함. 1) 미국과 중국이 상대방에 대한 의존도를 지속적으로 낮추려는 경쟁을 하고 있는데, 미국은 주요 광물자원과 전기차 배터리를 포함한 신재생 에너지 공급망의 우방국 중심 재편을 추구, 중국은 첨단 반도체 기술의 자국화와 달러 결제에 대한 노출을 줄이려고 함. 이에 따라 기반시설과 관련 된 기업들이 수혜를 볼 것이며, 인도/멕시코/동남아 국가들이 우방국 중심화에 수혜를 입을 것임. 2) 거시적 환경 측면에서 위험을 관리하는 효과는 투자자들 생각만큼 크지 않을 것으로 보이는데, 다양한 부문의 투자가 성장 및 생산성 향상에 도움을 주는 반면 가격에 대한 상방 압력과 공급망 분산 비용이 이를 상쇄할 것이기 때문임. 3) 자동화 산업은 각 국가들이 의존도를 낮추며 위험을 관리하려는데 수혜를 입는 직접적인 곳이며, 역사적 성장률인 4.4%가 올해부터 2030년까지 연평균 6.5%까지 높아질 것이라 봄. 4) 이미 부분적으로 탈동조화를 시작한 반도체 부문은 파운드리 및 원자재 부문에 막대한 양의 투자와 보상이 제공될 것으로 보임. 군사력 측면에서 AI 및 AGI에 대한 경쟁 때문에 이들의 독립성을 향한 탈동조화는 더욱 심화될 것으로 판단함. 5) 전기차 배터리 부문도 우방국을 중심으로 한 공급망 재편이 강하게 발생할 것으로 보이지만, 침투율 또한 급속도로 높아지고 있음. 중국 기업들에게는 시장 점유율 경쟁을 말하지만, 다국적 기업들에겐 기회라 볼 수 있음.
Security through supply chain strength: The US and China are racing to reduce their economic interdependency in crucial sectors. The US is pursuing friend-shoring of critical minerals and the renewable supply chain, including EV batteries, while China works to localise its advanced semiconductor industry and reduce trading partners' dependence on the USD payments infrastructure. Spending on defence, cybersecurity and space launch & communications is accelerating. Key beneficiaries: Infrastructure companies benefit globally from supply-chain de-risking, while India, Mexico and Southeast Asia are key regional beneficiaries of friend-shoring. Global Economics – Managing the impacts of de-risking: We expect impacts of de-risking at the macro level will be less than investors expect, despite the major implications for sectors/companies. The capex impulse (in physical plant and software/AI) is bolstering growth and likely productivity, while new capacity will pressure prices, offsetting higher supply chain costs. Decoupling, however, would be difficult and highly disruptive. Global Industrials – Strengthening the base: Industrial Automation is a beneficiary of de-risking demand, with growth accelerating to a 6.5% CAGR in 2023-30 from 4.4% historically. The US automation sector stands to benefit, with a 7.0% TAM CAGR through 2030. In a decoupling scenario, industrial automation spending growth remains firm at a 4.0% CAGR, but the international market within China would shrink by 80%. Global Technology – Semi localization, hardware diversification, but disruptive change from 2030: Heavy investment and strong incentives are likely in foundry and raw materials, which are already partially decoupling. Diversification of foundry, packaging and assembly and a de-risking end-state will make China an essential player in supply chains with its own cohort of MNCs. The competition for AI/AGI looks more likely to result in decoupling given military dual-use and data security concerns. EV Batteries – Re-wiring Supply Chains: Friend-shoring the battery supply chain and rapid global EV adoption are mutually exclusive. We see policy momentum pointing towards a slow EV path to de-risking, which would create market share challenges for Chinese incumbents but upstream growth potential for global players. However, much will depend on innovation and closing policy gaps in permitting and the labour market.
Security through supply chain strength: The US and China are racing to reduce their economic interdependency in crucial sectors. The US is pursuing friend-shoring of critical minerals and the renewable supply chain, including EV batteries, while China works to localise its advanced semiconductor industry and reduce trading partners' dependence on the USD payments infrastructure. Spending on defence, cybersecurity and space launch & communications is accelerating. Key beneficiaries: Infrastructure companies benefit globally from supply-chain de-risking, while India, Mexico and Southeast Asia are key regional beneficiaries of friend-shoring. Global Economics – Managing the impacts of de-risking: We expect impacts of de-risking at the macro level will be less than investors expect, despite the major implications for sectors/companies. The capex impulse (in physical plant and software/AI) is bolstering growth and likely productivity, while new capacity will pressure prices, offsetting higher supply chain costs. Decoupling, however, would be difficult and highly disruptive. Global Industrials – Strengthening the base: Industrial Automation is a beneficiary of de-risking demand, with growth accelerating to a 6.5% CAGR in 2023-30 from 4.4% historically. The US automation sector stands to benefit, with a 7.0% TAM CAGR through 2030. In a decoupling scenario, industrial automation spending growth remains firm at a 4.0% CAGR, but the international market within China would shrink by 80%. Global Technology – Semi localization, hardware diversification, but disruptive change from 2030: Heavy investment and strong incentives are likely in foundry and raw materials, which are already partially decoupling. Diversification of foundry, packaging and assembly and a de-risking end-state will make China an essential player in supply chains with its own cohort of MNCs. The competition for AI/AGI looks more likely to result in decoupling given military dual-use and data security concerns. EV Batteries – Re-wiring Supply Chains: Friend-shoring the battery supply chain and rapid global EV adoption are mutually exclusive. We see policy momentum pointing towards a slow EV path to de-risking, which would create market share challenges for Chinese incumbents but upstream growth potential for global players. However, much will depend on innovation and closing policy gaps in permitting and the labour market.
Meanwhile, global index provider MSCI Inc. decided to retain South Korea on its list of emerging markets following an annual review, once again thwarting the nation’s bid for an upgrade to the coveted developed-market status.