• Key Speaks this week
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Tuesday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Tuesday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual congressional testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee, Thursday
Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Friday
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Tuesday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Tuesday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual congressional testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee, Thursday
Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Friday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have an opportunity this week to clarify what many found a confusing message on the path of interest rates, with the added task of assuring Democrats and Republicans the economy is on track.
Bottom-line: 여성의 인권에 대해 지속적으로 다루고 있는 골드만삭스의 이번 보고서를 소개함. 2008년 처음 이 보고서를 발간한 뒤 현재까지 많은 곳에서 여성의 노동참여율, 교육, 그리고 임금 격차 부문에서 발전이 있었지만, 단순히 성별만에 따른 차이은 지속되고 있음. 지속되는 노동인구 감소 속에 여성의 노동참여를 적극 활용할 뿐 아니라, 충분한 보상을 한다면 선진국과 신흥국 모두 경제성장률을 5%~6% 사이까지 끌어올릴 수 있음. 다만, 다양한 노력과 진전에도 불구하고 인도의 경우 여성의 노동 참여율은 더 떨어졌고, 한국과 일본의 성별 간 임금 격차는 줄었지만 여전히 그 어떤 곳보다 큰 차이를 유지하고 있음. 정치와 경제에서 여성이 이끄는 조직이 많아졌지만, 해당 조직의 요직은 여전히 남성들이 지배하고 있음. 인공지능의 발달에 따른 위협도 새롭게 대두되고 있지만, 이를 잘 활용한다면 특히 여성이 집중되어 있는 대면 상호 관계, 돌봄과 같은 직군에서는 더 나은 발전이 있을 것이라 생각함.
We wrote the first paper on Women Hold Up Half the Sky in 2008, stating at the time that the old Chinese proverb was more aspiration than fact. In developed and developing countries alike, gender gaps persist in education, health, work, wages and political participation. Looking at these issues afresh, we find that shrinking working age populations mean that it is now more important than ever to utilise the full resources women have to offer (and to reward them fully). We estimate that even just halving the pay and employment gap between men and women could raise the level of GDP across DM and EM by between 5% and 6%. We have seen plenty of progress over the past 15 years – especially with respect to education and labour force participation – but we also see persistent gaps. Despite recording stellar GDP growth, India, which already had low female labour force participation, has seen it fall further. Japan and Korea have seen their pay gaps fall, but these gaps remain notably higher than elsewhere. Women are moving into positions of leadership in politics and business. But, as with much of the recent progress, it is slow, and representation at the very top remains elusive. Men account for 92% of CEOs in large-cap listed DM companies and 94% in EM-listed companies. New challenges have emerged as well. The jobs that our economists assume will be most impacted by AI also tend to be held by women rather than men: ~60-70% of the workforce in these areas are women. That said, roles that require a high degree of face-to-face interaction, or caring professions – both areas where women dominate – are likely to be made more productive via AI and are unlikely to be supplanted by it.
We wrote the first paper on Women Hold Up Half the Sky in 2008, stating at the time that the old Chinese proverb was more aspiration than fact. In developed and developing countries alike, gender gaps persist in education, health, work, wages and political participation. Looking at these issues afresh, we find that shrinking working age populations mean that it is now more important than ever to utilise the full resources women have to offer (and to reward them fully). We estimate that even just halving the pay and employment gap between men and women could raise the level of GDP across DM and EM by between 5% and 6%. We have seen plenty of progress over the past 15 years – especially with respect to education and labour force participation – but we also see persistent gaps. Despite recording stellar GDP growth, India, which already had low female labour force participation, has seen it fall further. Japan and Korea have seen their pay gaps fall, but these gaps remain notably higher than elsewhere. Women are moving into positions of leadership in politics and business. But, as with much of the recent progress, it is slow, and representation at the very top remains elusive. Men account for 92% of CEOs in large-cap listed DM companies and 94% in EM-listed companies. New challenges have emerged as well. The jobs that our economists assume will be most impacted by AI also tend to be held by women rather than men: ~60-70% of the workforce in these areas are women. That said, roles that require a high degree of face-to-face interaction, or caring professions – both areas where women dominate – are likely to be made more productive via AI and are unlikely to be supplanted by it.
Bottom-line: 다극주의 세계(a Multipolar World)는 미국국가정보위원회가 사용한 용어로, 모건스탠리는 점점 진해지는 다극주의 시대에 대한 보고서를 발간함. 1) 미국과 중국이 상대방에 대한 의존도를 지속적으로 낮추려는 경쟁을 하고 있는데, 미국은 주요 광물자원과 전기차 배터리를 포함한 신재생 에너지 공급망의 우방국 중심 재편을 추구, 중국은 첨단 반도체 기술의 자국화와 달러 결제에 대한 노출을 줄이려고 함. 이에 따라 기반시설과 관련 된 기업들이 수혜를 볼 것이며, 인도/멕시코/동남아 국가들이 우방국 중심화에 수혜를 입을 것임. 2) 거시적 환경 측면에서 위험을 관리하는 효과는 투자자들 생각만큼 크지 않을 것으로 보이는데, 다양한 부문의 투자가 성장 및 생산성 향상에 도움을 주는 반면 가격에 대한 상방 압력과 공급망 분산 비용이 이를 상쇄할 것이기 때문임. 3) 자동화 산업은 각 국가들이 의존도를 낮추며 위험을 관리하려는데 수혜를 입는 직접적인 곳이며, 역사적 성장률인 4.4%가 올해부터 2030년까지 연평균 6.5%까지 높아질 것이라 봄. 4) 이미 부분적으로 탈동조화를 시작한 반도체 부문은 파운드리 및 원자재 부문에 막대한 양의 투자와 보상이 제공될 것으로 보임. 군사력 측면에서 AI 및 AGI에 대한 경쟁 때문에 이들의 독립성을 향한 탈동조화는 더욱 심화될 것으로 판단함. 5) 전기차 배터리 부문도 우방국을 중심으로 한 공급망 재편이 강하게 발생할 것으로 보이지만, 침투율 또한 급속도로 높아지고 있음. 중국 기업들에게는 시장 점유율 경쟁을 말하지만, 다국적 기업들에겐 기회라 볼 수 있음.
Security through supply chain strength: The US and China are racing to reduce their economic interdependency in crucial sectors. The US is pursuing friend-shoring of critical minerals and the renewable supply chain, including EV batteries, while China works to localise its advanced semiconductor industry and reduce trading partners' dependence on the USD payments infrastructure. Spending on defence, cybersecurity and space launch & communications is accelerating. Key beneficiaries: Infrastructure companies benefit globally from supply-chain de-risking, while India, Mexico and Southeast Asia are key regional beneficiaries of friend-shoring. Global Economics – Managing the impacts of de-risking: We expect impacts of de-risking at the macro level will be less than investors expect, despite the major implications for sectors/companies. The capex impulse (in physical plant and software/AI) is bolstering growth and likely productivity, while new capacity will pressure prices, offsetting higher supply chain costs. Decoupling, however, would be difficult and highly disruptive. Global Industrials – Strengthening the base: Industrial Automation is a beneficiary of de-risking demand, with growth accelerating to a 6.5% CAGR in 2023-30 from 4.4% historically. The US automation sector stands to benefit, with a 7.0% TAM CAGR through 2030. In a decoupling scenario, industrial automation spending growth remains firm at a 4.0% CAGR, but the international market within China would shrink by 80%. Global Technology – Semi localization, hardware diversification, but disruptive change from 2030: Heavy investment and strong incentives are likely in foundry and raw materials, which are already partially decoupling. Diversification of foundry, packaging and assembly and a de-risking end-state will make China an essential player in supply chains with its own cohort of MNCs. The competition for AI/AGI looks more likely to result in decoupling given military dual-use and data security concerns. EV Batteries – Re-wiring Supply Chains: Friend-shoring the battery supply chain and rapid global EV adoption are mutually exclusive. We see policy momentum pointing towards a slow EV path to de-risking, which would create market share challenges for Chinese incumbents but upstream growth potential for global players. However, much will depend on innovation and closing policy gaps in permitting and the labour market.
Security through supply chain strength: The US and China are racing to reduce their economic interdependency in crucial sectors. The US is pursuing friend-shoring of critical minerals and the renewable supply chain, including EV batteries, while China works to localise its advanced semiconductor industry and reduce trading partners' dependence on the USD payments infrastructure. Spending on defence, cybersecurity and space launch & communications is accelerating. Key beneficiaries: Infrastructure companies benefit globally from supply-chain de-risking, while India, Mexico and Southeast Asia are key regional beneficiaries of friend-shoring. Global Economics – Managing the impacts of de-risking: We expect impacts of de-risking at the macro level will be less than investors expect, despite the major implications for sectors/companies. The capex impulse (in physical plant and software/AI) is bolstering growth and likely productivity, while new capacity will pressure prices, offsetting higher supply chain costs. Decoupling, however, would be difficult and highly disruptive. Global Industrials – Strengthening the base: Industrial Automation is a beneficiary of de-risking demand, with growth accelerating to a 6.5% CAGR in 2023-30 from 4.4% historically. The US automation sector stands to benefit, with a 7.0% TAM CAGR through 2030. In a decoupling scenario, industrial automation spending growth remains firm at a 4.0% CAGR, but the international market within China would shrink by 80%. Global Technology – Semi localization, hardware diversification, but disruptive change from 2030: Heavy investment and strong incentives are likely in foundry and raw materials, which are already partially decoupling. Diversification of foundry, packaging and assembly and a de-risking end-state will make China an essential player in supply chains with its own cohort of MNCs. The competition for AI/AGI looks more likely to result in decoupling given military dual-use and data security concerns. EV Batteries – Re-wiring Supply Chains: Friend-shoring the battery supply chain and rapid global EV adoption are mutually exclusive. We see policy momentum pointing towards a slow EV path to de-risking, which would create market share challenges for Chinese incumbents but upstream growth potential for global players. However, much will depend on innovation and closing policy gaps in permitting and the labour market.
Meanwhile, global index provider MSCI Inc. decided to retain South Korea on its list of emerging markets following an annual review, once again thwarting the nation’s bid for an upgrade to the coveted developed-market status.
Bottom-line: Kremlin Chaos.
Vladimir Putin faced the biggest challenge to his two-decade rule with a short-lived mutiny. Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin halted his fighters' advance toward Moscow as part of a deal brokered by Belarus President Lukashenko to end the revolt without facing prosecution. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has reappeared more than 24 hours after the standoff ended.
Vladimir Putin faced the biggest challenge to his two-decade rule with a short-lived mutiny. Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin halted his fighters' advance toward Moscow as part of a deal brokered by Belarus President Lukashenko to end the revolt without facing prosecution. Neither Putin nor Prigozhin has reappeared more than 24 hours after the standoff ended.
Micron Technology Inc. (MU) shares rose in the extended session Wednesday after the memory-chip maker's chief executive called the bottom on the sector, and revenue came in slightly higher than expected.
Docent: 로마의 아치를 건축한다면 인력의 투입과 산출에 한계가 있을 것이지만, 자본시장에서 일한다면 한명의 인력이 창출할 수 있는 부가가치의 한계를 가늠할 수 없을 것임. 골드만삭스에서 발간한 보고서는 이처럼 인적자본이 집중 된 산업에 초점을 맞추고 있음. 산업 내 선두에 있는 기업들은 대부분 인적 자본 관리에서 핵심적인 차별점을 만들고 있으며, 연구에 따르면 인적 자본은 기업이 더 큰 이익을 내고, 가치평가에서 동등한 기업보다 할증을 받으며, 주가 수익률 또한 더 우월한데 영향을 미친다고 함. 향후에도 노동시장은 구인이 어려운 상태를 유지할 것이고, 인공지능의 발달은 일자리를 줄이는 것보다 생산성을 높이는 역할을 더 할 것으로 보임. 골드만삭스는 이와 같은 평가 척도 하에서 소프트웨어 기업 중 훌륭하다 평가되는 기업들 목록을 제시함.
We believe human capital is a central differentiator of leading companies, and find it increasingly topical in our investor conversations. In our view, ESG analysis can offer unique insight into human capital practices and potential exposures, including retention, development, inclusion and mobility. We apply our framework to help identify leaders, with a focus on knowledge worker industries, highlighting links to margins, growth and stock performance. Human capital increasingly in focus. Our interview with GS economist Joseph Briggs points to a labor market expected to remain tight, with remote work a permanent feature, a need for below-trend growth to tame labor inflation, and emerging AI technologies that are more likely to enhance productivity than drive job losses. Software industry case study points to positive links to margins, growth and stock performance. A growing body of research links effective management of human capital with superior operating and stock performance. Our own case study of the Software industry shows that human capital leaders tend to see higher margins, greater margin expansion, premium multiples, and stock outperformance. Our interview with US Software lead analyst Kash Rangan underscores a shortage of supply for top Tech talent, the importance of in-person connectivity, and how successful companies are enabling constant learning. Buy-rated companies in the Software industry that both disclose and rank well on our human capital measurables include Adobe, HubSpot, SAP, ServiceNow, Workday and Xero.
We believe human capital is a central differentiator of leading companies, and find it increasingly topical in our investor conversations. In our view, ESG analysis can offer unique insight into human capital practices and potential exposures, including retention, development, inclusion and mobility. We apply our framework to help identify leaders, with a focus on knowledge worker industries, highlighting links to margins, growth and stock performance. Human capital increasingly in focus. Our interview with GS economist Joseph Briggs points to a labor market expected to remain tight, with remote work a permanent feature, a need for below-trend growth to tame labor inflation, and emerging AI technologies that are more likely to enhance productivity than drive job losses. Software industry case study points to positive links to margins, growth and stock performance. A growing body of research links effective management of human capital with superior operating and stock performance. Our own case study of the Software industry shows that human capital leaders tend to see higher margins, greater margin expansion, premium multiples, and stock outperformance. Our interview with US Software lead analyst Kash Rangan underscores a shortage of supply for top Tech talent, the importance of in-person connectivity, and how successful companies are enabling constant learning. Buy-rated companies in the Software industry that both disclose and rank well on our human capital measurables include Adobe, HubSpot, SAP, ServiceNow, Workday and Xero.