Bottom-line: 달러 대비 여타 통화의 강세는 높은 물가에 대한 우려가 완화되고, 중앙은행의 최종 정책금리 예상 수준이 낮아짐에 따른 자연스러운 현상임. 다만, 달러 약세는 외환 시장 밖에도 영향을 주는데, i) 달러 약세로 인해 달러 표시 원자재의 상승에 환 효과로 기여하고, ii) 달러로 환산 한 수입품목가를 낮춰주는 효과 덕분에 미국 외 국가에서 수입수요를 키우고 경제 성장에 도움을 주며, iii) 현금성 투자상품에 몰려있는 미국 내 달러 자산이 미국 외 국가의 주식에 투자 할 유인을 제공함. 그러므로 대다수 투자자들은 지금의 달러 약세 추세가 이어지길 응원해야 할 것임.
Weakness in the dollar continues to reverberate across markets, with everything from the pound through the yen tearing higher this week. And while it’s all just a natural consequence of easing inflation and a lower terminal rate in the US, it has very important implications for markets outside FX. First, dollar-priced commodities have rallied, with oil and gold benefitting from the pure currency effect of the change in the unit of measurement. Second, it lowers the cost of imports of dollar-based goods everywhere outside the US, stimulating demand and boosting growth. That growth comes with the added benefit of built-in lower inflation. And third, it encourages investors to pull money out of US money-market funds and put it to better use in international stocks. So, overall, the dollar really feels like the flipside of the everything rally, and just about everyone should cheer this bout of weakness.
Weakness in the dollar continues to reverberate across markets, with everything from the pound through the yen tearing higher this week. And while it’s all just a natural consequence of easing inflation and a lower terminal rate in the US, it has very important implications for markets outside FX. First, dollar-priced commodities have rallied, with oil and gold benefitting from the pure currency effect of the change in the unit of measurement. Second, it lowers the cost of imports of dollar-based goods everywhere outside the US, stimulating demand and boosting growth. That growth comes with the added benefit of built-in lower inflation. And third, it encourages investors to pull money out of US money-market funds and put it to better use in international stocks. So, overall, the dollar really feels like the flipside of the everything rally, and just about everyone should cheer this bout of weakness.
Treasury yield curve bull-steepens as UK inflation data fall short of economist estimates, damping expectations of policy tightening by the BOE.
Generative AI demand rise is “directionally positive” for TSMC, CEO says. Whether you’re using custom-designed chips or off-the-shelf AI accelerators, the commonality among them is that they need advanced-node chipmaking.
Bottom-line: 곰 한 명은 항복, 또 다른 곰 한 명은 언제일지 모를 그날을 여전히 기다리는 중.
Long time equity bear Mike Wilson has a mea culpa. "We were wrong," the Morgan Stanley strategist wrote. "2023 has been a story of higher valuations than we expected amid falling inflation and cost cutting." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic still thinks a selloff is coming thanks to a delayed impact from rate hikes and a "deeply troubling" geopolitical backdrop, but he doesn't know when.
Long time equity bear Mike Wilson has a mea culpa. "We were wrong," the Morgan Stanley strategist wrote. "2023 has been a story of higher valuations than we expected amid falling inflation and cost cutting." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic still thinks a selloff is coming thanks to a delayed impact from rate hikes and a "deeply troubling" geopolitical backdrop, but he doesn't know when.
Bottom-line: 지난 달에 이어 오늘도 중앙은행은 25bp 금리인상을 단행하며 기준금리를 5.25%~5.50% 범위에 둘 것으로 예상됨. 파월 의장은 시장 참여자들에 금리인상 종료라는 인상을 주고 싶지 않을 것이며, 향후 통화정책결정에 대해 또 다시 지표에 의존하겠다고 말할 것임. 다만, 시장 참여자 누구도 물가가 지금과 같이 하락하면 추가 금리인상이 있을 것이라 생각하지 않고 있음.
After holding rates steady last month, Fed officials are expected to raise rates by a quarter-point this afternoon, bringing the target on their benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Powell will want to avoid a “mission accomplished” moment today by declaring an end to the rate hiking cycle, as that would only hand the narrative back to the markets. Instead, he will probably repeat that the Fed is data-dependent, inflation remains too high and they could yet tighten again. If the inflation data continues to cool, few will expect the Fed to keep hiking. If prices do an about turn...then all bets are off.
After holding rates steady last month, Fed officials are expected to raise rates by a quarter-point this afternoon, bringing the target on their benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Powell will want to avoid a “mission accomplished” moment today by declaring an end to the rate hiking cycle, as that would only hand the narrative back to the markets. Instead, he will probably repeat that the Fed is data-dependent, inflation remains too high and they could yet tighten again. If the inflation data continues to cool, few will expect the Fed to keep hiking. If prices do an about turn...then all bets are off.
Bottom-line: 흥미로운 점은, 파월 의장이 인터뷰에서 말을 많이 할수록 주식이 더 높이 상승했다는 것. 다만, 최근 몇 번의 회의에서는 그런 현상이 없었음. 오늘 어떻게 될지 살펴보도록.
One interesting phenomenon in this tightening cycle has been that the more Powell talked at the press conference, the more stocks rallied. That pattern, however, has faded over the past few meetings. Let’s see if it happens today.
One interesting phenomenon in this tightening cycle has been that the more Powell talked at the press conference, the more stocks rallied. That pattern, however, has faded over the past few meetings. Let’s see if it happens today.
Bottom-line: 공개 된 성명문의 변화가 너무 적기 때문에, 기자회견에서 시장 반응이 결정 될 것임.
Very limited changes to the statement. All the market actions will likely be at the press conference.
Very limited changes to the statement. All the market actions will likely be at the press conference.
Bottom-line: 파월 의장은 기자회견을 통해 시장에 신호를 줄 수도 있지만, 잭슨홀 미팅을 사용하는 선택지도 있음. 만일 더 강력한 메시지를 시장에 전달해야 한다면 잭슨홀에서 할 수도 있음. 또한, 다음 통화정책회의까지 기간이 보통보다 길게 남기 때문에 더 많은 경제 지표도 모일 것임.
Powell could use the press conference to send a signal on what is likely to happen in September. But he will likely choose to keep his options open, potentially using the Jackson Hole conference to send a stronger message if needed. Officials will have more data by then. And remember this is one of the longer inter-meeting periods, which will be eight weeks versus the more typical six.
Powell could use the press conference to send a signal on what is likely to happen in September. But he will likely choose to keep his options open, potentially using the Jackson Hole conference to send a stronger message if needed. Officials will have more data by then. And remember this is one of the longer inter-meeting periods, which will be eight weeks versus the more typical six.