Bottom-line: 곰 한 명은 항복, 또 다른 곰 한 명은 언제일지 모를 그날을 여전히 기다리는 중.
Long time equity bear Mike Wilson has a mea culpa. "We were wrong," the Morgan Stanley strategist wrote. "2023 has been a story of higher valuations than we expected amid falling inflation and cost cutting." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic still thinks a selloff is coming thanks to a delayed impact from rate hikes and a "deeply troubling" geopolitical backdrop, but he doesn't know when.
Long time equity bear Mike Wilson has a mea culpa. "We were wrong," the Morgan Stanley strategist wrote. "2023 has been a story of higher valuations than we expected amid falling inflation and cost cutting." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic still thinks a selloff is coming thanks to a delayed impact from rate hikes and a "deeply troubling" geopolitical backdrop, but he doesn't know when.
Bottom-line: 지난 달에 이어 오늘도 중앙은행은 25bp 금리인상을 단행하며 기준금리를 5.25%~5.50% 범위에 둘 것으로 예상됨. 파월 의장은 시장 참여자들에 금리인상 종료라는 인상을 주고 싶지 않을 것이며, 향후 통화정책결정에 대해 또 다시 지표에 의존하겠다고 말할 것임. 다만, 시장 참여자 누구도 물가가 지금과 같이 하락하면 추가 금리인상이 있을 것이라 생각하지 않고 있음.
After holding rates steady last month, Fed officials are expected to raise rates by a quarter-point this afternoon, bringing the target on their benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Powell will want to avoid a “mission accomplished” moment today by declaring an end to the rate hiking cycle, as that would only hand the narrative back to the markets. Instead, he will probably repeat that the Fed is data-dependent, inflation remains too high and they could yet tighten again. If the inflation data continues to cool, few will expect the Fed to keep hiking. If prices do an about turn...then all bets are off.
After holding rates steady last month, Fed officials are expected to raise rates by a quarter-point this afternoon, bringing the target on their benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Powell will want to avoid a “mission accomplished” moment today by declaring an end to the rate hiking cycle, as that would only hand the narrative back to the markets. Instead, he will probably repeat that the Fed is data-dependent, inflation remains too high and they could yet tighten again. If the inflation data continues to cool, few will expect the Fed to keep hiking. If prices do an about turn...then all bets are off.
Bottom-line: 흥미로운 점은, 파월 의장이 인터뷰에서 말을 많이 할수록 주식이 더 높이 상승했다는 것. 다만, 최근 몇 번의 회의에서는 그런 현상이 없었음. 오늘 어떻게 될지 살펴보도록.
One interesting phenomenon in this tightening cycle has been that the more Powell talked at the press conference, the more stocks rallied. That pattern, however, has faded over the past few meetings. Let’s see if it happens today.
One interesting phenomenon in this tightening cycle has been that the more Powell talked at the press conference, the more stocks rallied. That pattern, however, has faded over the past few meetings. Let’s see if it happens today.
Bottom-line: 공개 된 성명문의 변화가 너무 적기 때문에, 기자회견에서 시장 반응이 결정 될 것임.
Very limited changes to the statement. All the market actions will likely be at the press conference.
Very limited changes to the statement. All the market actions will likely be at the press conference.
Bottom-line: 파월 의장은 기자회견을 통해 시장에 신호를 줄 수도 있지만, 잭슨홀 미팅을 사용하는 선택지도 있음. 만일 더 강력한 메시지를 시장에 전달해야 한다면 잭슨홀에서 할 수도 있음. 또한, 다음 통화정책회의까지 기간이 보통보다 길게 남기 때문에 더 많은 경제 지표도 모일 것임.
Powell could use the press conference to send a signal on what is likely to happen in September. But he will likely choose to keep his options open, potentially using the Jackson Hole conference to send a stronger message if needed. Officials will have more data by then. And remember this is one of the longer inter-meeting periods, which will be eight weeks versus the more typical six.
Powell could use the press conference to send a signal on what is likely to happen in September. But he will likely choose to keep his options open, potentially using the Jackson Hole conference to send a stronger message if needed. Officials will have more data by then. And remember this is one of the longer inter-meeting periods, which will be eight weeks versus the more typical six.
Bottom-line: 파월 의장의 답변 중에 경기에 대한 연착륙 평가도 주목해야 할 것임. 초기에 그의 주장은 홀로 외로운 주장이었으나, 지금은 꽤 큰 지분을 가지게 됨. 2023년 경기침체를 처음으로 언급한 도이치뱅크의 분석가들도 최근에 들어서는 경기 침체 가능성이 낮아지고 있다고 말했음.
Another thing to look for is Powell’s soft-landing assessment. For a while there he looked pretty lonely in the camp seeing a potential way through to one. But he’s got plenty of company now. In fact, Deutsche Bank economists, who were among the first to call a 2023 recession, last week put themselves on the fence:
Recessionista Says US Downturn Is Less Likely.
Another thing to look for is Powell’s soft-landing assessment. For a while there he looked pretty lonely in the camp seeing a potential way through to one. But he’s got plenty of company now. In fact, Deutsche Bank economists, who were among the first to call a 2023 recession, last week put themselves on the fence:
Recessionista Says US Downturn Is Less Likely.
Bottom-line: 물가 목표에 대해 강조하면서 향후 발표되는 지표에 주목하겠다 함. 노동시장에 대해 여전히 과열이다 했지만, 노동시장에 대한 그의 평가는 한결같아 큰 의미가 없음.
Powell says the committee remains strongly committed to the 2% goal. FOMC to Take Data-Dependent Approach on Future Hikes. Nominal wage growth “has shown some signs of easing,” Powell says. But labor demand still exceeds supply.
Powell says the committee remains strongly committed to the 2% goal. FOMC to Take Data-Dependent Approach on Future Hikes. Nominal wage growth “has shown some signs of easing,” Powell says. But labor demand still exceeds supply.
Bottom-line: 매우 명확하게 향후 지표에 의존해 정책금리를 결정하겠단 의사를 전달함.
These are very direct remarks by Powell, he’s making it very clear that the Fed will be driven by the data, and they are conscious of the time it will take for hikes to impact the economy (they may even pause again) but he is clearly not convinced that the inflation battle is over.
These are very direct remarks by Powell, he’s making it very clear that the Fed will be driven by the data, and they are conscious of the time it will take for hikes to impact the economy (they may even pause again) but he is clearly not convinced that the inflation battle is over.